Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday that his country will respond to Israel for the July assassination of Hamas’s political leader in Tehran but said “we do not wish to be the causes of instability in the region.” – Washington Post

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected on a promise to revive his country’s weak economy by convincing the West to lift sanctions on its nuclear program. At his first big diplomatic test—the United Nations General Assembly this week—he’s set to walk away empty-handed. – Wall Street Journal 

Israel wants to drag the Middle East into a full-blown war by provoking Iran to join the nearly year-old conflict between Israel and Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s president said on Monday, warning of its “irreversible” consequences. – Reuters

Swedish authorities accused Iran on Tuesday of being responsible for thousands of text messages that were sent to people in the Scandinavian country calling for revenge over the burnings of Islam’s holy book in 2023. – Associated Press

Iran is ready to start nuclear negotiations on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York if “other parties are willing”, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday in a video published on his Telegram channel. – Reuters

While tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran, there’s at least one American that state radio in Tehran invites on the air each week for its millions of listeners. It’s just that he’s a fictional insurance fraud detective who’s been on the case since 1949. – Associated Press

An Iranian Grammy Award winner said on Monday he was pardoned from serving a three-year sentence over his song that became an anthem to the 2022 protests that rocked the country following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. – Associated Press

Israel allegedly carried out an assassination and document theft within Iranian territory, according to a presenter from a channel affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, quoting an Iranian intelligence source. – Jerusalem Post

Arash Azizi writes: Such is likely to be the tone of Pezeshkian’s rhetoric during his visit to New York this week—both in his address to the United Nations General Assembly and in the many meetings he plans to hold among American civil society. The talk of universal harmony doesn’t sit comfortably with Iran’s track record of repressing its own population, arming anti-Israel terror groups, and aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it does signal a shift from just a year ago, when the hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi fulminated at a UN podium. It might be narrow, but if you look hard enough, you’ll see a new opening in Tehran. – The Atlantic

Hezbollah

Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon killed almost 500 people, including dozens of women and children, and wounded more than 1,600, according to Lebanese authorities, in the deadliest wave of strikes since the current hostilities began in October.  Wall Street Journal

Israel launched devastating attacks on Hezbollah in recent days with airstrikes and remote-control explosions that put the Lebanese militant group on the defensive and demonstrated Israel’s vast superiority in intelligence gathering and technology. A ground war between the two, if it occurs, would likely be a different story. – Wall Street Journal

It began with messages sent by Israel to radio stations and some cellphones in Beirut on Monday morning, warning of imminent military action. – New York Times

Israel’s Air Force attempted on Monday evening to kill Ali Karaki, Hezbollah’s top commander in southern Lebanon, with an airstrike in the capital, Beirut, according to two current Israeli officials and one former Israeli official with knowledge of the operation. – New York Times

Thousands of Lebanese are fleeing their homes in the country’s south as Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hezbollah, raising fears of an all-out war a day after a barrage of strikes killed hundreds in the country. – Wall Street Journal

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib on Monday that China firmly supported Lebanon in safeguarding its sovereignty and security and strongly condemned violations after Israel’s large scale airstrike. – Reuters

Former CIA director Leon Panetta labeled last week’s deadly pager explosions in Lebanon a form of “terrorism.” – The Hill

A third Lebanon War has already begun in the wake of the significant IDF strikes against Hezbollah deep into Lebanon, a security official estimated on Monday in comments to Ynet. – Jerusalem Post 

The device explosions in Lebanon last week were part of Israel’s “red button” plan, designed to be activated at a critical moment for maximum impact against an adversary, current and former Israeli officials with knowledge of the pager operation told the Washington Post. – Jerusalem Post

David Ignatius writes: I wish I had answers to the questions that haunt all of us as we watch the Middle East shattered by an ever-widening war. The only things that seem clear to me are that total victory is an illusion in this conflict, and that security is essential. – Washington Post

Matthew Levitt writes: Many Hezbollah operatives are surely looking over their shoulders now, fearing there are moles in the organization and wondering if Israel will take the opportunity to hit their arsenal of longer-range and precision-guided missiles while the group is on its back foot. Meanwhile, the group’s diminished military capabilities increase the likelihood that it will attempt to carry out terrorist attacks abroad. As of this writing, the two adversaries are already engaged in heavy escalation that will further raise the stakes of the group’s decisionmaking—perhaps quite quickly. – Washington Institute

Hanin Ghaddar writes: U.N. Resolution 1701 is not sustainable because it does not include punitive measures, and Hezbollah will eventually violate it. Therefore, a long-term policy will have to be designed after a cease-fire is achieved in order to contain Hezbollah in Lebanon—a policy that will address interrupting its weapons supply routes from Tehran via Iraq and Syria as well as help the Lebanese state regain its sovereignty when it comes to decisions of war and peace. – Foreign Policy

Patricia J. Karam writes: While its goals and considerations are presently in concert with Iran, Hezbollah’s leadership is contending with mounting calls for a response that demonstrates an ability to cause harm to Israel. The group needs to show force — as it did over the weekend by attacking Haifa — but its public is asking for blood. Hezbollah and its backers are nevertheless not likely to escalate the prevailing cycle of violence unless Israel undertakes yet another assault that causes widespread bloodshed. Until then, Hezbollah will presumably navigate the current situation with an eye to easing the passions of its base. – Middle East Institute

Barry Shaw writes: The Hezbollah-affiliated source reported that Hezbollah’s fighting force will consist of 5 brigades, each composed of 1,000 fighters. Each brigade has been assigned a defined combat zone in Israel to take control of. Therefore, each brigade is familiar with the structure and topographical conditions of its zone and has trained for its conquest. This is the major attack planned against Israel that the IDF is currently destroying in Lebanon. All this, armed and trained by Iran. Furthermore, Hezbollah has thousands more forces trained and prepared to attack Israel which are stationed in Syria and in Iraq. – Arutz Sheva

Ohad Merlin writes: This may be the path forward, or perhaps not. What’s essential is a long-term vision to address the Iranian threat, not just the ad-hoc band-aids we have become experts at applying. And finally, 101 of our brothers and sisters are still trapped in Hamas tunnels in Gaza. The time has come to act, including taking a firm stand against Qatar, to secure their release. – Jerusalem Post 

Dean Shmuel Elmas writes: In the end, Nasrallah understands that, as far as Khamenei is concerned, the time has come to pay for the all the aid Hezbollah has received from Iran. If he turns his back on Khamenei, he will be left without money, but with Lebanon. If he comes into line with Khamenei, he will be left with money, but Lebanon’s citizens, including many Shi’ites, will not forgive him. Isolated, confused, and battered, Nasrallah finds himself facing the most important decision in Hezbollah’s history. –  Jerusalem Post

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued a decree forming a new government under Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, the Syrian state news agency (SANA) reported on Monday. – Reuters

The war between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated to a new phase, and in neighboring Syria, there are many who are glad to see the repeated blows the Lebanese terror organization has taken in recent days. – Ynet

Yaakov Lappin writes: This is in addition to the launching of UAVs, missiles, etc. by Houthi operatives from Syrian soil against Israel,” the Alma Center warned. It noted that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has already deployed tens of thousands of Shi’ite militiamen throughout Syria, including the Houthi presence. The report warned that “if an all-out war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel, Syria in general and southern Syria in particular will constitute a central arena from which Shi’ite militia operatives will operate.” – Arutz Sheva

Middle East & North Africa

Mr. Biden, for his part, he noted, “never really used his leverage over Netanyahu,” a reference to the president’s power to cut off specific kinds of military aid if the prime minister ignored his counsel. “And you don’t have leverage unless you are willing to use it.” – New York Times

The Pentagon is sending additional U.S. troops to the Middle East as tensions continue to rise after Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah killed at least 350 people in Lebanon, Defense Department officials said on Monday. – New York Times

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies on Monday warned that actions and counter-actions in the Middle East risked dragging the region into a broader conflict that no country would gain from. – Reuters

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the United Arab Emirates, at the White House on Monday against the backdrop of violence in Gaza, civil war in Sudan and the development of artificial intelligence. – New York Times

Today, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa’ al Sudani met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to discuss Iraqi banking sector reform, financial relations with the United States, and combatting illicit finance. 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2603

Yahya Cholil Staquf writes: Former Indonesian president and Nahdlatul Ulama chairman KH. Abdurrahman Wahid was one of the few prominent voices in Indonesian history who argued in favor of recognizing Israel. In general, Indonesians oppose the recognition of Israel. However, clear gestures by Israel that demonstrate how its policies adhere to the terms of the postwar international order, as defined by the aspirations of the UN Charter, would go a long way toward improving Israel’s image among the Indonesian people. – Washington Institute

China

China’s central bank announced a bundle of measures to support China’s weakening economy, following a run of downbeat data that raised doubts about the country’s growth trajectory. – Wall Street Journal 

A prominent economist at one of China’s top think tanks was placed under investigation, detained and removed from his posts after he allegedly criticized leader Xi Jinping’s management of the world’s second-largest economy in a private chat group, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

China has made several moves in recent months to advance its ambitious aim to become the trade and transportation hub of Asia. – New York Times

A House committee focused on threats from China argues in a new report that U.S. federal research funding had helped to advance Chinese technologies with military applications, fueling a potential national security rival to the United States. – New York Times

A detachment of warships of Russia’s Pacific Fleet and the Chinese Navy entered the Sea of ​​Okhotsk in the western Pacific as part of joint navy exercises, Russia’s Interfax agency reported on Tuesday, citing the Pacific Fleet’s press service. – Reuters

The People’s Republic of China is tightening its bond with one of Asia’s most strategic small countries while President Biden fortifies ties with the defensive Indo-Pacific network that he cultivated in nearly four years in the White House. – New York Sun

Asia

Japanese jet fighters fired warning flares at a Russian military reconnaissance plane that violated Japan’s airspace on Monday, the first time Tokyo has taken such an aggressive stance against incursions of its airspace mostly carried out by Moscow. – Wall Street Journal 

Japan’s top diplomat asked China to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens there after the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy, and demanded a crackdown on what she called “groundless, malicious and anti-Japanese” social media posts that threaten children’s safety. – Associated Press

Singapore’s first ministerial corruption trial in nearly half a century began Tuesday, with former Transport Minister S. Iswaran facing charges in a rare scandal in the Asian financial hub known for its squeaky clean government. – Associated Press

Vietnamese and U.S. firms have signed memorandums of understanding (MoUs) to cooperate in energy, artificial intelligence and a data centre, the Vietnamese government said on Tuesday. – Reuters

As the Australian Army reconfigures itself to incorporate unmanned ground vehicles, vendor BAE Systems senses an opening for its new ATLAS 8×8 vehicle. – Defense News

Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel write: Such actions would build trust and undermine Chinese and Russian attempts to enlist the global South to an anti-Western cause. Rather than bemoaning the emergence of the BRICS, the West should court those member states that have a stake in making sure that the grouping does not become an overtly anti-Western outfit intent on undermining the global order. – Foreign Affairs

Alex Little writes: For too long, the United States’ relations with Central Asian countries have been characterized by the former military presence in Afghanistan. Instead, Washington should operate within its limited interests in its relations with Kazakhstan by working on mutually beneficial endeavors. By shifting its approach towards nuclear and economic diplomacy, the United States can foster a more balanced and productive relationship with Kazakhstan that supports regional stability and prosperity. – National Interest

Africa

Tanzania’s main opposition party said on Monday that the police had detained its top leaders and dozens of others ahead of a planned demonstration — the second such crackdown in two months by the government of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who came to power promising a political opening. – New York Times

Having slipped undetected into Mali’s capital weeks ago, the jihadis struck just before dawn prayers. They killed dozens of students at an elite police training academy, stormed Bamako’s airport and set the presidential jet on fire. – Reuters

An Egyptian warship has delivered a second major cache of weaponry to Somalia including anti-aircraft guns and artillery, port and military officials said on Monday, in a move likely to stoke further friction between the two countries and Ethiopia. – Reuters

Hundreds of ships have been sailing under the flag of Eswatini without the African country’s permission to do so, according to a letter from the landlocked nation’s government. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: Boakai is right that standing up the War and Economic Crime Court can cement his legacy. It is a move long overdue, but he must stand up to personal agendas, human rights industry profiteers, and the simply misguided. Today, Boakai is failing, however. He affirms his staunchest critics’ concern that he is too old, weak and deferential. He should not listen to individual ambassadors who do not have the power of the purse, but pretend they can reward or punish individuals using U.S. government grants. Liberians need justice to succeed, but that justice must come in partnership with the international community. The Sierra Leone Special Tribunal should be the model, not Civitas Maxima. – American Enterprise Institute

Diana Furchtgott-Roth writes: To regain this influence America must focus on the needs of Africa, such as improving affordable energy, business and security. This will allow Africa to develop productive modern economies, a secure environment where crime and terrorism is under control, and the rule of law to protect individual and property rights. Not only will this be best for Africa, but also for the national security of the United States. – Heritage Foundation

United States

The Commerce Department on Monday proposed banning Chinese and Russian components inside of connected vehicles on U.S. roads, significantly escalating the Biden administration’s effort to prevent Washington’s top adversaries from spying on Americans. – Wall Street Journal 

When President Biden addresses world leaders at the United Nations on Tuesday morning, his aides promise a speech filled with declarations about America’s role in shaping the future. – New York Times

Federal prosecutors investigating whether Mayor Eric Adams conspired with the Turkish government to funnel illegal foreign donations into his campaign have recently sought information about interactions with five other countries, people with knowledge of the matter said. – New York Times

Defense

American Airlines Capt. Dan Carey knew his cockpit equipment was lying to him when an alert began blaring “pull up!” as his Boeing 777 passed over Pakistan in March—at an altitude of 32,000 feet, far above any terrain. – Wall Street Journal 

The North American Aerospace Defense Command says it detected four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska on Monday, less than two weeks after US Army soldiers were deployed to the area as part of a “force protection operation” amid an increase in Russian and Chinese military exercises in the region. – CNN

The Space Force is planning to partner with commercial companies operating in geostationary orbit for a variety of satellite services, including communications and positioning, navigation and timing. – Defense News