Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Trump, Iran’s Rouhani descend on same corner of New York but remain far apart A year later, Iran finds evaporating sympathy at the U.N. U.N. announces formation of Syrian constitutional committee ISW’s John Dunford and Brandon Wallace: ISIS prepares for breakout in prisons and camps U.S. banks embroiled in lawsuit over funding of Hamas terrorists Kim Jong-un visits South Korea? The south says it could happen U.S., Afghan forces carry out deadly raid on al-Qaeda in southern Afghanistan Trump put hold on military aid ahead of phone call with Ukraine’s president U.S. seeks more sanctions on Venezuela’s leaders and faults Europe’s inertia FBI charges soldier with sharing bombmaking tips, says he spoke of targeting liberals, journalistsIn The News
Iran
After months of lobbing threats and vowing military reprisals, President Trump will find himself on the same block of midtown Manhattan as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani this week at the annual U.N. General Assembly. – Washington Post
Iran is now admitting how much damage the American-led sanctions have done to its economy — crashing the currency and turning a boomlet into a recession. – New York Times
The leaders of Britain, France and Germany joined the U.S. in blaming Iran for this month’s attacks on Saudi Arabia and said the time had come for Tehran to start talks on a new, long-term agreement dealing with its nuclear, regional and missile activities. – Wall Street Journal
Iran said a British-flagged tanker it seized in July on alleged maritime violations is free to leave, ending a monthslong standoff with the U.K. ahead of a United Nations summit this week where it faces tough questions over attacks on rival Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump is considering a range of options to punish Iran for this month’s attack on Saudi oil facilities, and has toughened sanctions on Iran and ordered the deployment of additional troops to the region. But a second cyberstrike — after one launched against Iran just three months ago — has emerged as the most appealing course of action for Mr. Trump, who is reluctant to widen the conflict in a region he has said the United States should leave, according to senior American officials. – New York Times
US President Donald Trump said Monday he could not rule out a meeting with Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani at the United Nations this week, but no encounter was yet scheduled. – Agence France-Presse
US President Donald Trump will try selling his tough Iran policy in a speech to the UN on Tuesday, but the bid for international leadership will be overshadowed by growing political scandal at home. – Agence France-Presse
Enemies who try to attack Iran will face captivity and defeat, a senior Iranian military official said on Tuesday, a day after President Hassan Rouhani said Iran’s message to the world was “peace and stability”. – Reuters
The path to reduce tensions in the region has become smaller and the moment has come for Iran to help defuse the crisis, France’s president told his Iranian counterpart on Monday, his office said in a statement. – Reuters
Iran ruled out the possibility of negotiating a new deal with major powers, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted on Monday, saying that European partners have failed to fulfill their commitments under a 2015 nuclear pact. – Reuters
Editorial: In recent weeks, as Iran has lashed out at its neighbors, rekindled its nuclear ambitions, violently disrupted regional commerce, and issued not-so-veiled threats to the world, Europe has done little more than mollify and coddle the regime. That needs to stop: The stability of the global economy, as well as of the Middle East, may depend on it. – Bloomberg
Walter Russell Mead writes: The mix of military restraint and sanctions resolve has worked well for Washington so far. Even Iran hawks are happy with the impact the sanctions are having. But the chances of a military confrontation between Iran and the U.S. are rising, not falling. Strategic patience in Washington matched by strategic realism in Tehran is the world’s best hope for peace. – Wall Street Journal
Gerald F. Seib writes: President Trump is engaged in one of the great strategic gambles of recent times. He is betting that he can create so much pressure on Iran that it buckles to American demands, while simultaneously making good on his promise to keep America out of any more “endless” Middle East wars. So far, the gamble is working, much to the amazement of the president’s critics. But the stakes in this international poker game are growing steadily higher, and the costs of losing the bet are rising along the way. – Wall Street Journal
Jason Rezaian writes: Perhaps there was a time when a government could hide behind its own rhetoric. Today, though, the astoundingly unconvincing arguments offered by Iran and the United States on these two issues prove that era is over. We have too much insight into the thinking of the powers behind these moves and the human toll exacted by these policies to claim ignorance. Attempts to rationalize them are equally ridiculous. – Washington Post
Josh Rogin writes: There will be a lot of Iran-related diplomatic action this week here in New York during the United Nations General Assembly, but any prospect of direct interaction between U.S. and Iranian officials is now officially eliminated, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said on Sunday. He also accused Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of “economic terrorism” and said he should be put on trial before the International Criminal Court. – Washington Post
Jon B. Alterman writes: The United States is carefully amassing evidence, consulting with allies, and building a case for Iranian responsibility. From it will flow a case for broad international action. The president appears to appreciate that Iran is unlikely to represent a great triumph for him, but it represents a serious threat to his reelection and to his legacy. Calibrating his message this week so that the world bandwagons with him rather than balancing against him is a difficult task, but one at which he can’t afford to fail. – Defense One
Ben Fishman writes: The unilateral “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran must become a multilateral campaign, and Iran needs to see a release valve as an alternative to sponsoring terrorism, firing drones and missiles and targeting Saudi Arabia. That could be the promise of limited sanctions relief or reinstituting waivers for some oil sales in exchange for a verifiable halt in terrorist activity in the Gulf region. – The Hill
Barbara A. Leaf and Charles Thépaut write: At this critical juncture, diplomacy does not convey weakness, but rather an acknowledgment that the United States has multiple tools for steering Iran and its regional rivals toward a sustainable solution. […]To be effective, U.S. leadership must be buttressed not by unrealistic threats, but by actions and collective diplomacy that visibly constrain Iran’s room for further destructive acts while defining the path to negotiations. – Washington Institute
Syria
A Syrian constitutional committee made up of opposition, civil society and government members has been finalized after almost two years of negotiations, the United Nations announced Monday. – Washington Post
On September 22, 2019, the Syrian opposition website Zamanalwsl posted a report providing details of the locations of U.S. bases in Syria and U.S. troop deployment in the region. The report emphasized bases in northern Syria that are situated near the Syria-Turkey border in an area controlled by Kurdish forces. The publication of this information may expose the bases to attack by hostile elements. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Despite the creation of a security zone on the border between Turkey and northeast Syria that has defused some tension in recent weeks, Syrian Kurds still fear the movement of Turkish ground and aerial forces in their backyard could be a prelude to an assault on the country’s Kurdish minority population. – Foreign Policy
O. Peri and H. Varulkar write: In its war in the past years against the opposition forces and terrorist organizations in Syria, the Bashar Al-Assad regime has received substantial support from its two major allies, Russia and Iran. However, in the last year there have been increasing reports – mainly in the media of the Syrian opposition but also in the Arab and global media – about a struggle between Iran and Russia for control and influence in Syria. This struggle, which takes place amid the regime’s gradual recapture of most of Syria’s territory, reflects each country’s desire to ensure its future influence over the Syrian state, over its leadership, especially the military echelon, and over the economy, thus securing itself a share in the profits from the rebuilding of the country. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Turkey
Three U.S. law firms have sued a leading Turkish Islamic bank on behalf of an American family for aiding and abetting terrorist activity, Washington based law firm Stein Mitchell Beato & Missner said in a press release on Monday. – Ahval
Victims of the Palestinian Hamas terror group are suing a prominent Turkish-controlled bank with business ties in the United States over the financial institution’s backing of the terror group and its violent attacks. – The Washington Free Beacon
Turkey remains susceptible to external and domestic risks, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday, while strong, sustainable growth would be challenging without further reforms by the government. – Reuters
Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival, Benny Gantz, began talks Monday night to form a coalition government, under pressure from Israel’s president after no clear winner emerged from last week’s election. – Wall Street Journal
The United Nations released an interim report by the Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief on Monday, in which he says he is “alarmed by the growing use of antisemitic tropes by white supremacists including neo-Nazis and members of radical Islamist groups in slogans, images, stereotypes and conspiracy theories meant to incite and justify hostility, discrimination, and violence against Jews.” […]His report, which the Israeli mission to the UN called “unprecedented,” identified antisemitism from all sides of the political spectrum and called for action. – Jerusalem Post
Israelis hold the most negative view of the United Nations of any nationality in the world, a new poll has revealed. The survey — conducted by the Pew Research Center — found that 65 percent of Israelis look at the UN unfavorably, with only 31 percent having a favorable outlook toward the global intergovernmental body. – Algemeiner
Palestinian Authority security forces have thwarted an attempt by Islamic Jihad to manufacture rockets in the West Bank. – Algemeiner
The U.S. and the international community weren’t tough enough on Israel in pursuing a two-state solution, former British Prime Minister David Cameron writes in a new book out Tuesday. – Jewish Insider
Daniel Gordis writes: If the rift between American Jews and Israel is to be healed, salvation will come not in the form of Benny Gantz or any other prime minister, but in beginning an overdue conversation between the world’s two largest Jewish communities, to deepen our understanding of each other’s differences, successes and vulnerabilities, in the hopes that we can learn from the best that each has to offer. In a world that is darkening for the Jews once again, we need each other now more than ever. – New York Times
Ira Stoll writes: But that’s the most generous possible face to put on what operates functionally as an anti-Israel bias. It’s hard to imagine the Times would have skipped the American Political Science Association story entirely if the BDS resolution had succeeded. It ends up being a double standard. It leaves Times readers a false impression that BDS “may be gaining ground,” when a more accurate impression is that it may be losing ground. – Algemeiner
Arabian Peninsula
Iran said on Monday that the United Kingdom should stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia instead of accusing the Islamic Republic, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain believes Iran was responsible for an attack on Saudi oil facilities. – Reuters
Editorial: The Trump administration should not allow the regime of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to destroy this potential de-escalation. […]The State Department should also open, as it has said it would do, a direct dialogue with Houthi leaders. The Houthis are telling their interlocutors that they expect Iran to carry out further attacks and do not want to be blamed for them. If Mr. Trump wishes to avoid being cornered into a military conflict, he should act quickly. – Washington Post
Bilal Y. Saab writes: This hypothetical, but no longer unthinkable, scenario can be prevented through more serious and regular consultation between Trump and MBS. This cannot be limited to a quick visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Riyadh to reassure the Saudis. Washington must game-plan this with Saudi leaders to not only assuage their fears but also check their worst impulses. MBS has done the right thing thus far by exercising prudence and leaning on the Americans. But if Tehran strikes again, Trump shouldn’t take his patience for granted. – Defense One
Middle East & North Africa
Two rockets landed about a half-mile from the United States’ Iraq Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone on Monday amid rising tensions between the U.S. and its allies and Iran. – The Daily Beast
An Algerian military tribunal on Monday opened the unprecedented trial of a brother of the country’s longtime former president and two ex-intelligence chiefs, accusing them of plotting against the state. – Associated Press
President of Iraq Barham Salih writes: Recent events are a stark reminder of how volatile the Middle East remains and how easily local enmity can damage the interests of the rest of the world. […]It is in our interest to act as a stabilizing force and use our key strategic position and good relations with our neighbors to eradicate extremism. Iraq seeks to be a force for stability, and a bridge for economic integration in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
Jason Pack writes: Largely overlooked in international policymaking toward Libya’s current conflict is the role of corruption as a key driver of violence, as opposed to merely its byproduct. […]While foreign nations providing money and weapons to the various Libyan warlords and militias have ideological, security, and economic motivations, it is not much of an oversimplification to state that the Libyan militias themselves are fighting primarily over money. […]For too long, international policymakers have thought: we can’t fix the Libyan subsidy system while there is fighting going on. That logic must be turned on its head: the fighting can’t be stopped while the subsidy system is going on. – Middle East Institute
John Dunford and Brandon Wallace write: The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is likely preparing to free its loyal fighters and followers from prisons and displacement camps across Syria and Iraq. The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition is operating on borrowed time when it comes to detainees in Syria and Iraq. […]ISIS has reportedly already extracted small numbers of its fighters from these prisons, possibly using bribes derived from online fundraising. […]The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition faces a high risk in coming months of successful prison breaks and raids on displacement camps by ISIS. These operations would reinvigorate ISIS’ festering insurgency in Iraq and Syria. – Institute for the Study of War
Korean Peninsula
Kim Jong-un could meet again with President Trump and even visit South Korea in November if expected talks between Pyongyang and Washington make progress on eliminating North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers on Tuesday. – New York Times
South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers in a private briefing Tuesday that nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea will likely resume within two to three weeks, according to one of the lawmakers who attended the session. – Associated Press
Donald Trump, who orchestrated a spur-of-the-moment June encounter with Kim Jong Un that saw him become the first U.S. president to set foot in North Korea, said Monday that another meeting with the North Korean leader “could happen soon.” – Associated Press
South Korea will not participate in Japan’s naval fleet review in October, it said on Tuesday, as it had not been invited to a display its navy joined when the event was last held four years ago. – Reuters
Joseph Bosco writes: If the president does intend to revive and enlarge the moral indictment of the Kim regime, it would be an adroit asymmetrical response to Pyongyang’s test-firing of a half-dozen missiles in recent months, which some analysts have seen as a slap at Trump’s charm offensive. Since love letters have not convinced Kim to get down to serious denuclearization, a reinvigorated U.S. program of non-kinetic support for regime change in Pyongyang may prove more effective. – The Hill
China
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday questioned a decision by his top trade negotiators to ask Chinese officials to delay a planned trip to U.S. farming regions after trade talks last week, saying he wanted China to buy more American farm products. – Reuters
Top Chinese telecom executive Meng Wanzhou and her lawyers went to court on Monday to try to have her extradition case thrown out, arguing that her rights were violated. – Agence France-Presse
U.S. President Donald Trump called for an end to religious persecution on Monday at a U.S. event on the sidelines of the annual gathering of world leaders at the United Nations featuring a woman whose Uighur father has been imprisoned in China. – Reuters
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) on Monday called for a “comprehensive strategy” in dealing with China, saying the Trump administration should be less “erratic and incoherent” in its approach to Chinese threats in cyberspace and other areas. – The Hill
Vuk Vuksanovic writes: Because of Serbian self-interest, its partnership with China will survive even the potential change in Serbian leadership. However, precisely because of Serbian political self-interest, a better understanding of China is needed to ensure that Serbia can manage its partnership with China in a way that will help it insulate itself from any risks. Seeing China’s relationship with Serbia for what it is will probably involve a partnership between international institutions and domestic stakeholders in Serbia, such as representatives of civil society, remaining independent media, and academics, with the purpose of initiating a more nuanced and balanced debate on China. One thing is for certain, if nothing changes, China is in the driver’s seat. – War on the Rocks
Asia
U.S. and Afghan troops carried out a deadly raid Monday against al-Qaeda in southern Afghanistan, detaining a number of suspected fighters and destroying an apparent weapons cache, according to American and Afghan officials. – Washington Post
The United States and Japan may fall short of signing a trade deal this week, as negotiators from both countries grapple with how to resolve President Trump’s threat to place tariffs on cars from Japan. – New York Times
Does sharing a stage with the Indian Prime Minister outweigh a warm interaction with Pakistan’s leader? That is the question many are asking following US President Donald Trump’s interactions with the leaders of the South Asian rivals. – BBC
President Donald Trump on Monday repeated his offer to mediate Pakistan’s dispute with India over territory in Kashmir, telling Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan that he has mediated a lot of big disputes among his friends with great success. – New York Post
Europe
President Trump asked his acting chief of staff to place a hold on $391 million in aid to Ukraine more than a week before a July phone call in which he urged his Ukrainian counterpart to investigate Joe Biden’s son, according to a person familiar with the matter, a revelation that comes as an investigation into the president’s dealings with Kiev is mushrooming on Capitol Hill. – Wall Street Journal
Britain’s Labour party on Monday called for a future government led by Jeremy Corbyn to adopt a raft of anti-Israel policies. – Times of Israel
Spanish prosecutors called for rebellion and terrorism charges to be leveled against nine activists linked to pro-Catalan independence groups who were arrested Monday on suspicion they may have been preparing to commit violent acts, possibly with explosives. – Associated Press
Britain’s opposition Labour Party descended into chaos on Monday as it narrowly rejected a grassroots attempt to force leader Jeremy Corbyn to campaign to remain in the European Union and reverse the outcome of the 2016 Brexit vote. – Agence France-Presse
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated a call for “flexibility” from the EU in Brexit talks during a meeting with Council President Donald Tusk in New York Monday that failed to yield a breakthrough. – Agence France-Presse
The Americas
The Trump administration opened a double-barreled critique on Monday of what it described as a limp European response to the crisis in Venezuela, renewing demands for tougher sanctions against President Nicolás Maduro’s government and more aid for refugees. – New York TImes
Western Hemisphere nations voted Monday to employ a regional treaty to impose sanctions against embattled Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, accusing his regime of criminal activity including drug trafficking and money laundering. – Wall Street Journal
An Army private at Fort Riley, Kan., has been arrested on charges of providing instructions on how to make bombs to people he met online, including an undercover FBI agent. – Washington Post
Jarrett William Smith, 24, was charged with distribution of information related to weapons of mass destruction after offering to teach others bomb-making and discussing bombing the news network’s headquarters, according to documents in Kansas federal court. He was stationed at Fort Riley in Kansas before his arrest on Saturday. The arrest of Smith comes amid a wave of arrests and charges the Justice Department has made disrupting possible domestic terror plots. – CNN
President Donald Trump urged the United Nations to support the United States in protecting religious liberty around the world and called for an end to religious persecution. – Washington Examiner
Defense
The Pentagon’s research agency wants to explore the possibility of editing a soldier’s genetic makeup to protect against chemical and biological attacks. – Washington Examiner
The National Reconnaissance Office has awarded a commercial imagery study contract to HySpecIQ as a way to better understand the company’s imagery capabilities and how commercial hyperspectral images can fulfill some of the intelligence communities geospatial needs. – C4ISRNET
The Navy and Marine Corps recently used a new Littoral Combat Force concept to command and control units spread over 2.2 million square miles of land and sea, in the latest demonstration of what a future operation near and on the shore might look like. – USNI News
The Air Force plans to spend as much as $95 million on cloud services from several companies to work on one of Cyber Command’s first major weapon systems. Unified Platform will allow cyber teams to share information, conduct mission planning and provide the command and control tools they need to conduct missions. – Fifth Domain
Connor McLemore and Charles Clark write: The military should prepare to implement strong measures to ensure unambiguous human accountability over each of their automated systems. Success will require infrastructure investment, policy innovation, and understanding AI’s strengths and weaknesses. – War on the Rocks
Long War
Indonesia’s counterterrorism squad on Monday arrested nine suspected militants accused of plotting a suicide bomb attack on police using high-explosive materials, police said. – Associated Press
Jacob Ware writes: Lethal autonomous weapon systems are likely to proliferate to terrorist groups, with potentially devastating consequences. The United States and its allies should urgently address the rising threat by preparing stronger defenses against possible drone and swarm attacks, engaging with the defense industry and AI experts warning of the threat, and supporting realistic international efforts to ban or stigmatize military applications of artificial intelligence. – War on the Rocks
Cliff Smith writes: The Trump Administration should follow up on its tough rhetoric toward radical Islamic networks by taking the practical step of broadening USAID’s vetting approach. […]This stricter policy would have excluded all of the terror-linked charities named above from receiving U.S. government grants. If USAID’s policy does not change, expect more instances in which well-intentioned grant programs end up subsidizing unspeakable acts of terrorism, instead of saving lives. – Washington Examiner