Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Divided by war, strained by shortages and faced with the cataclysm of global warming, dozens of world leaders convened at the United Nations in New York on Tuesday for the first full, in-person General Assembly since the pandemic began. Among all the global crises, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the day, with heads of state addressing the violence of the conflict, the chaos in supply chains, the soaring energy prices and the other ripple effects of the war. – New York Times

Russia pushed ahead Tuesday with plans to annex occupied regions of Ukraine, as Moscow’s puppet authorities set dates to stage referendums on joining Russia — moves that could dramatically escalate the war. – Washington Post

In a major escalation of the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the threat of a nuclear response in the conflict in Ukraine and ordered reservists to mobilize, as Moscow seeks to buttress his army’s flagging manpower and regain the offensive following stinging losses on the battlefield. – Wall Street Journal

The referendums, analysts say, would be a prelude to annexation of the territory by Russia — at which point Moscow could declare it would treat any further attacks on those regions, parts of which are still controlled by Ukraine, as an attack on Russia itself, and threaten nuclear retaliation. – New York Times

The United States and its European and Asian allies are at a pivotal point this week on sanctions on Russia and the urgent issue of energy prices as they discuss how to increase punishments on Moscow at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. – New York Times

Attorney General Merrick Garland and his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Kostin, signed an agreement Tuesday aimed at formalizing cooperation over joint efforts to prosecute alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces in the war in Ukraine. – Washington Post

Members of the far-right Alternative for Germany party said they were traveling to Russian occupied-areas of eastern Ukraine on Tuesday, providing fodder for pro-Kremlin propaganda as calls are growing in Moscow for swift annexation of large swaths of Ukrainian territory. – Washington Post

President Joe Biden is ready to make the case to world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly that Russia’s “naked aggression” in Ukraine is an affront to the heart of what the international body stands for as he looks to rally allies to stand firm in backing the Ukrainian resistance. – Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday blasted what he described as U.S. efforts to preserve its global domination and ordered officials to boost weapons production amid the fighting in Ukraine. – Associated Press

This city in far eastern Ukraine was among the first taken by Russian forces after the war started on Feb. 24, and it became a command center for them. By early March, Izium was isolated — no cell phones, no heat, no power. Residents didn’t know what was going on in the war, whether their relatives were alive, whether there was still a Ukraine. – Associated Press

French President Emanuel Macron admonished countries Tuesday not to stay neutral about condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine as he declared that Moscow’s invasion amounts to a new form of imperialism. – Associated Press

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday repeated his willingness to foster negotiations to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, calling for a ceasefire but renouncing sanctions and economic isolation. – Associated Press

Russia’s Kremlin-controlled lower house of parliament on Tuesday approved legislation that toughens punishment for soldiers breaching their duties, in an apparent effort to boost discipline in the ranks amid the fighting in Ukraine. – Associated Press

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin ordered an increase in funding to boost the country’s weapons production in a televised address to the nation on Wednesday in which he ordered a “partial mobilisation” to support Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. – Reuters

Planned referendums in occupied regions of Ukraine to join Russia are “unacceptable” and Canada would never recognize such territories as part of Russia, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was quite clear when he spoke to former U.S. President Bill Clinton on Tuesday. When the United States ponies up more weapons and ammunitions for Ukraine, other nations will follow, Zelensky said. – Newsweek

Russian President Vladimir Putin is pulling paratroopers from Syria to replenish troops in Ukraine, Kyiv officials said Tuesday. – Newsweek

Vladimir Putin is going “all in” to turn the Ukraine war into a conflict with NATO, an ally of the Russian president said ahead of referendums later this month on joining Russia in four occupied regions. – Newsweek

The White House will “never” recognize any territory Russia annexes from Ukraine as legitimate parts of Russia, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday following announcements that referendums in Russian-occupied territories could take place as early as this week. – Washington Examiner

David Ignatius writes: For the Biden administration, the United Nations’ new energy validates a strategy to reengage the international organization after years of U.S. frustration and neglect. A senior State Department official explained that the administration reckoned that U.N. agencies still had a “unique capability” to deal with problems if they were mobilized, and that “we can’t do it alone” in responding to global crises. – Washington Post

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. writes: Ukraine’s obvious knack, to the lowliest foot soldier, is for the inventive, multidisciplinary warfare (including the information war) that prevails in the 21st century. Even Mr. Putin must be getting the picture, and the risk it portends of more defeats coming—perhaps explaining why he increasingly shuts out Russia’s formal military leadership in favor of consulting with his mercenary bosses. – Wall Street Journal

William A. Galston writes: Experts and ordinary citizens alike care about defending a peaceful world order in which dictators don’t change boundaries by force of arms and don’t suppress peoples’ desires for self-government. The American response to the invasion of Ukraine proves that this idealism remains at the core of our national identity and that we can’t conduct a viable foreign policy without acknowledging its enduring impact. – Wall Street Journal

Leonid Bershidsky writes: It’s also worth recalling that, for all their superior populist skill and strong rapport with millions of their compatriots, neither Hitler nor Mussolini ended up ruling the world — or even successfully defending Germany’s and Italy’s place in it. As a less competent fuehrer, Putin risks doing at least as badly for Russia. – Bloomberg

David Lingelbach and Valentina Rodríguez Guerra write: We remain skeptical that Putin is on the verge of losing power. Despite the serious blows he has suffered, Putin remains one of the most consequential oligarchs of the post-World War II era. Global uncertainty remains high, an ideal environment for oligarchs like Putin to exploit. The war seems likely to go on for a long time, and Russia, while cowed, is unlikely to give up easily. And that Russia — its hands covered with innocent blood — will likely be led by those who do not fear that blood. Leaders like Putin. – The Hill

Hezbollah

A U.S. court has ordered the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to pay millions of dollars in damages to a group of Americans who sued saying they were wounded by the group’s rockets during a war with Israel in 2006. – Associated Press

As Hezbollah continues to threaten Israel’s gas rigs, the Israeli Navy and the Defense Ministry’s Directorate of Research and Development (MAFAT) successfully tested the Gabriel 5 surface-to-surface missile. – Jerusalem Post

Zvi Bar’el writes: The violent awakening in the West Bank could show that the West Bank has internalized the lessons Hamas and Hezbollah taught Israel, according to which only a balance of deterrence and fear can pay dividends. – Haaretz

Lebanon

Crisis-hit Lebanon hopes to adopt key reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund for a long-delayed but urgently needed bailout before the end of next month if there is “political will”, Lebanon’s caretaker economy minister said Tuesday. – Associated Press

“If this deal goes through it carries mutual benefit. As for Lebanon, it would clear the way for exploration in Lebanon’s promising southern waters and as soon as Lebanon will start producing gas from this area, it will have something to lose and it will think twice before provoking Israel,” Prof. Chorev said. – Arutz Sheva

Iranian officials told a Lebanese technical delegation visiting Tehran on Tuesday that Iran could offer Lebanon 600,000 tons of fuel over five months to help ease its power shortages, Lebanese TV station Al-Manar reported. – Jerusalem Post

Simon Henderson, Hanin Ghaddar, Matthew Levitt, Ehud Yaari, David Makovsky, David Schenker, and Andrew J. Tabler write: Lebanon’s decision to take over Novatek’s offshore stake could be part of a synchronized move toward an imminent maritime border agreement—one that also allows for Qatar’s entry into the license consortiums. Despite questions about the nature and substance of any agreement involving Lebanon and Israel (whether directly or, more likely, indirectly), the nascent deal appears to have traction, reportedly including significant Israeli concessions on the final boundary line. Yet it remains an open question whether any near-term agreements will serve as a foundation for broader bilateral progress between Israel and Lebanon or collapse within a few months like past deals. – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

As Prime Minister Yair Lapid met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II to discuss escalating violence emanating from the West Bank Tuesday, the two received an unfortunate reminder of the urgency of efforts to calm tensions. – Times of Israel

​​On September 10, 2022 a high-ranking Hamas delegation, led by the head of the movement’s political bureau, Isma’il Haniya, his deputy Saleh Al-‘Arouri and bureau members Moussa Abu Marzouq and Maher Salah, made an official visit to Moscow at the invitation of the Russian foreign ministry. During the visit the Hamas leaders met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his deputy Mikhail Bogdanov, among other Russian officials. The delegation members expressed support for Russia’s positions on various issues, and the Russian officials, for their part, expressed support for Hamas. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Tom Rogan writes: The United States should welcome this strategy. Israel is a bastion of democracy and prosperity based on the rule of law in a region largely devoid of it. Similarly, Abdullah is a long-standing American friend. Jordan’s GID intelligence service has been instrumental in counter-Islamic State efforts and has saved many Western lives. As Israel attempts to conclude complex negotiations with Lebanon over the development of offshore energy reserves, stability with respect to Jordan takes on even more importance. – Washington Examiner

Jonah Shrock writes: For most Middle Eastern countries, the plus-size 2021 SDR allocation served as a nice bonus rather than a lifesaver. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the government was not in desperate need of liquidity, but the extra assets helped it make large deposits in the central banks of Egypt and Pakistan, expanding the kingdom’s economic influence in both countries. In other cases, governments used the allocation to supplement their existing plans for paying down debt to the IMF. – Washington Institute

Jon B. Alterman writes: The U.S. military is wise not to sharply pivot from the region, despite pressure to focus on the Pacific—where U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea are already deeply reliant on Middle Eastern energy. The Biden visit to Saudi Arabia in July was a constructive move in this direction, too. Building sustained patterns of cooperation, embracing shared projects, and helping partners diversify their economies is not only smart in terms of a global competition with China, but also in terms of advancing the interests of the United States and its allies. Few Americans have much patience for the Middle East anymore, but patience is exactly what is called for. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Alon Ushpiz writes: The signing of the Abraham Accords two years ago was a historic, watershed moment for the Middle East, that ushered in a profoundly new chapter for the region. It provided a fresh sense of invigoration that contributed to the growing circle of peaceful nations in the Middle East. Now, as we mark its anniversary, we celebrate this revolutionary peace that the normalization agreements have forged, along with the remarkable accomplishments we have achieved in just two years. – Jerusalem Post

China

China is willing to make the utmost effort to strive for a peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan, a Chinese government spokesperson said on Wednesday, following weeks of military manoeuvres and war games by Beijing near the island. – Reuters

Marc A. Thiessen writes: Our commitment to defend NATO allies is the reason Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine but not Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland. Similarly, removing any ambiguity over whether the United States will defend Taiwan will have a stabilizing effect in the Pacific — sending Chinese dictator Xi Jinping a clear message of deterrence. – Washington Post

Rick Switzer and David Feith write: Policy makers can recognize the challenges of America implementing its own industrial policy without mischaracterizing China’s mission as failed or doomed. Whatever embarrassing failures are hurting China’s semiconductor industry these days, history and strategic prudence show that the U.S. should take Beijing’s ambitions seriously and spend to counter them before it’s too late. – Wall Street Journal

Joseph Bosco writes: What Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States said with strategic clarity of Russia’s war there applies also to Chinese aggression against Taiwan: “It will be much cheaper for the world if we win the war for democracy in Ukraine.” Biden, who just said casually for the fourth time that America will defend Taiwan, would do the world — including China — a favor if he would declare it officially at the U.N. – The Hill

Ilan Berman writes: In other words, for America’s perspective to gain resonance, Washington needs to do a much better job of convincing less prosperous nations that partnering with Beijing is, in fact, a bad bet. That, in turn, requires not just talking about the dangers of the Chinese model, but actually providing viable economic, technological, and political alternatives to it. – Newsweek

Asia

Myanmar’s ruling junta on Tuesday warned the public against showing moral support for a “terrorist” resistance movement, threatening jail terms of up to 10 years just for liking or sharing its content on social media. – Reuters

The president of the Marshall Islands on Tuesday welcomed what he called progress towards a new association agreement with the United States, but said it is vital to better address the legacy of U.S. nuclear testing and climate change. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Liz Truss condemned provocations over Taiwan by China in a meeting with her Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida at the United Nations General Assembly, a Downing Street spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Kyrgyzstan’s leader said he is prepared to negotiate as long as it takes with Tajikistan to resolve a deadly border dispute, while also vowing his forces would not cede “a centimeter” of land. – Agence France-Presse

Africa

Forces in Ethiopia’s Tigray region said troops from neighbouring Eritrea started a full-scale offensive on Tuesday and heavy fighting was taking place in several areas along the border. – Reuters

The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa said on Tuesday the United States was aware of Eritrean troops crossing into Ethiopia’s Tigray region and condemned it. – Reuters

Ethiopia rejected a report by UN investigators that accused Addis Ababa of possible ongoing crimes against humanity in its war-torn Tigray region, including using starvation as a weapon. – Agence France-Presse

Michael Rubin writes: Certainly, Liberians deserve better. Weah and his delegation are free to enjoy their hotel and attend the United Nations, but they should not treat Manhattan as a shopping junket while they neglect ordinary Liberians. At the same time, U.S. policy should go further. The broader international community must observe and guarantee the sanctity of elections so that Weah does not undermine the ballot, and both the United States and Europe should outline the investment and partnership in which they are willing to engage should Liberians elect a leader who places rule-of-law above personal enrichment. – 19FortyFive

Cybersecurity

The Commerce Department unit that approves sensitive U.S. technology exports does not have the intelligence resources to fully realize the national security consequences of selling advanced equipment and software to China. – CyberScoop

Experts warned members of Congress against a myopic focus on the illicit role of cryptocurrencies, instead pointing to how payment apps developed in China and Russia pose a national security threat. – CyberScoop

A “limited number” of American Airlines’ employees’ email accounts were compromised by an “unauthorized actor,” who had potential access to a range of those employees’ personal data, the company said in a disclosure Sept. 16. – CyberScoop