Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

In a long history of audacious operations, exploding pagers and walkie-talkies across Lebanon was one of Israel’s boldest feats. The question now ringing through Israel is whether it helps win the war. – Wall Street Journal

After months of saying a cease-fire and a hostage-release deal was close at hand, senior U.S. officials are now privately acknowledging they don’t expect Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement before the end of President Biden’s term. – Wall Street Journal

U.N. child rights experts on Thursday condemned the “catastrophic consequences” of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, which they said violated international law. – New York Times

Six Palestinians were killed and 18 others injured by Israeli forces during a military raid in the occupied West Bank city of Qabatiya, the governor of Jenin told Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters

Israeli fighter jets pounded Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon late on Thursday, striking hundreds of rocket launcher barrels that were set to be used to immediately fire toward Israeli territory, the military said. – Reuters

The second round of a vaccination campaign to protect 640,000 children in Gaza against polio will also deliver micronutrients – essential vitamins and minerals – and conduct nutritional screening, a senior U.N. Children’s Fund official said. – Reuters

Israel lifted orders restricting movement and large gatherings issued on Thursday night for a number of communities in northern Israel and the Golan Heights, its military said on Friday. – Reuters

20 MKs demanded on Thursday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancel a recent decision to enable 500 Palestinian security officials to join the IDF in ongoing counterterror operations in the West Bank and Jordan Valley. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces announced an investigation after soldiers were filmed shoving the bodies of Palestinian gunmen off a rooftop following an exchange of fire in the West Bank city of Qabatiya, near Jenin, earlier Thursday. – Times of Israel

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that she opposes his position not to establish a state commission of inquiry into the failings leading up to Hamas’s devastating October 7 attack until after the current war ends. – Times of Israel

Israel has put a proposal on the table that would end fighting in the Gaza Strip and give the head of Hamas safe passage out of the enclave in exchange for the immediate release of all hostages held in Gaza, the demilitarization of the Strip and the establishment of an alternative governing power there, Kan news reported Thursday. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The stakes have never been higher, and Israel must continue to rely on its intelligence services, diplomatic efforts, and military power to prevent its enemies from succeeding. This week has seen many Israeli successes in our ongoing battle, but the threat of assassination to Israeli leaders should still serve as a wake-up call to the threats that are constantly knocking at our door. – Jerusalem Post

Eli Lake writes: At the same time, blaming Bibi for the deaths of the six hostages does the work of the hostage takers. Sinwar must be delighted that so many Israelis and Jews hold the prime minister responsible for his henchmen’s murders. Without even participating in the cease-fire talks, the leader of Hamas has a serious hand to play in this game. And as of this writing in early September, at least, it appears that the only person willing to deny this monster a victory is the man so many have blamed for the monster’s crimes. – Commentary

Russia & Ukraine

There are roughly 500 miles between Kyiv and Moscow. The United States has weapons that can fly much farther than that, but it is unlikely to supply them to Ukraine for fear that an attack on the Russian capital with American weapons might spark a third world war. – New York Times

Vladislav Bakalchuk, the estranged husband of Russia’s richest woman, was arrested and charged with murder on Thursday, his lawyers said, after a deadly shootout at the Moscow office of Russia’s largest online retailer. – Reuters

A close ally of President Vladimir Putin warned Western governments on Thursday that a nuclear war would ensue if they gave the green light for Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia was ramping up drone production by around ten times to nearly 1.4 million this year in a bid to ensure the Russian armed forces win in Ukraine. – Reuters

Russia’s campaign of air strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid probably violates international humanitarian law, a U.N. monitoring body said on Thursday, as Ukrainians prepare for the toughest winter since Russia’s invasion. – Reuters

Russian forces hit a geriatric centre in the Ukrainian city of Sumy and targeted its energy sector in a new wave of airstrikes on Thursday, killing at least one civilian, Ukrainian officials said. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov vowed in an interview published on Friday that Moscow would defend its interests in the Arctic both in diplomatic and military terms. – Reuters

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen is traveling to war-ravaged Ukraine on Friday with the promise of 160 million euros ($180 million) in fresh energy funds to get the nation through the winter. – Associated Press

The US has warned its allies that Russia is targeting cargo shipping companies as it seeks to disrupt Ukraine’s partners, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Ukraine has beaten Russia in a race to shake the steppes with an earthquake and send up a mushroom cloud visible from outer space. For weeks, Russian commentators have urged the Kremlin to drop a nuclear weapon on Ukraine. – New York Sun

Lee Hockstader writes: By contrast, Moscow’s forces occupy nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory — despite the infusion of $200 billion of Western military and other aid. The West has been right to help Kyiv retain its independence. It needs now to formulate a muscular long-term strategy that deters future Russian aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere — without starry-eyed assumptions that Moscow is a depleted force. – Washington Post

Anna Matveeva writes: The evacuation was chaotic, and the Emergencies Ministry was notorious for its absence. The protective arm of the state flopped. Still, some omens are in Russia’s favor. Kursk invasion could go down in history as a tragedy for Ukraine, an unexpected war booster for Russia, and a headache for the West, whose goal of ending the war on somewhat decent terms for Ukraine moved further away. – National Interest

Lebanon

A preliminary investigation by Lebanese authorities into the communications devices that blew up in Lebanon this week found that they were implanted with explosives before arriving in the country, according to a letter sent to the U.N. Security Council by Lebanon’s mission to the United Nations. – Reuters

Lebanese authorities on Thursday banned walkie-talkies and pagers from being taken on flights from Beirut airport, the National News Agency reported, after thousands of such devices exploded during a deadly attack on Hezbollah this week. – Reuters

Explosions in booby-trapped radios and pagers in Lebanon this week seriously disrupted its fragile health sector, the World Health Organization chief said on Thursday. – Reuters

The U.N. peacekeeping force in south Lebanon urged de-escalation on Friday after a big increase in hostilities at the Lebanese-Israeli border, where Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah have been trading fire for almost a year. – Reuters

Lebanon’s death toll from a series of walkie-talkie and pager explosions this week rose to 37, according to local authorities, an illustration of the devastation wrought by suspected Israeli attacks aimed at Hezbollah militants. – Bloomberg

Korean Peninsula

The United States imposed sanctions on Thursday on a network of five groups and one person for enabling payments between Russia and North Korea to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine and Pyongyang’s weapons programs, the Treasury Department said. – Reuters

South Korea’s LIG Nex1 said on Friday it won a 3.71 trillion won ($2.8 billion) order from Iraq to export mid-range surface-to-air missile defence systems. – Reuters

Andreas Kluth writes: Kim would see that as a threat, and consider preempting it by declaring war. Then again, if he’s already decided that war is inevitable, Kim doesn’t even need to wait that long. As he watches Americans spew vitriol at one another in the coming months, he could also decide that Washington is distracted, and set his peninsula on fire. And then, at last, the whole world would talk about little else but him. – Bloomberg

South Asia

The Taliban administration is in control of 39 Afghan embassies and consulates globally three years after it took over Afghanistan and the previous Western-backed government collapsed, the acting foreign ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Sri Lanka reached a draft deal with creditors to restructure $12.5 billion of international bonds, it said on Thursday, in a major boost to the island nation’s fragile recovery just two days before its presidential election. – Reuters

The family of a blasphemy suspect killed in custody in southwestern Pakistan has forgiven the police officer accused of killing him, saying they would not press charges “in the name of God”. – Reuters

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the main city in Himalayan Kashmir on Thursday to campaign for his party in the local election, the first such vote since New Delhi stripped the disputed region’s semi-autonomy in 2019. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: Without a good deal on debt, investment and growth will not return to the island, and living standards will remain depressed. That will only feed the cycle of anger and disillusionment that leads to political crises. Sri Lanka’s new leaders must demonstrate they are more responsible than the old guard they revile. Otherwise, a presidential election that should bring years of turbulence to a close might precipitate a new crisis. – Bloomberg

Europe

Bulgaria and Norway became new focal points on Thursday of a global hunt for who supplied Hezbollah with the thousands of pagers that exploded in Lebanon this week in a deadly blow to the militant group. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron held phone calls with top political and military leaders from Lebanon as well as a separate call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging restraint after a wave of explosions of pagers and radio devices. – Reuters

Spain’s foreign ministry condemned this week’s attacks targeting mobile communications devices used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon, saying they constituted a violation of international humanitarian law and threatened the region’s stability. – Reuters

Swedish prosecutors charged a woman on Thursday with crimes against humanity for acts in Syria against women and children of the Yazidi religious minority in 2014-2016, the first time the Nordic country has brought this charge. – Reuters

After months of political uncertainty following a snap legislative election, France appeared on the cusp of a new government on Thursday, as Prime Minister Michel Barnier was set to present his cabinet to President Emmanuel Macron. – Reuters

The European Union will make billions of euros available to help central Europe recover from severe floods, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday, as she pledged support for regions that have been devastated by the deluge. – Reuters

Latvia’s president said NATO needs to have the ability to shoot down Russian drones that stray into member states’ territory as he called for increased air defenses on the alliance’s eastern flank. – Bloomberg

Support for Ireland’s incumbent prime minister, Taoiseach Simon Harris, has jumped along with increases for his party, according to an Irish Times poll, results which will likely add pressure for him to call a general election this autumn. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Critically, the E.U.’s several small capital markets lack the scale needed to raise the kind of money for firms to stay in the global race. Without broad financing instruments, which would likely include Europe-wide government securities, Mr. Draghi’s moonshot will not get off the ground. Mr. Draghi’s report has many good ideas — to unify budgets, markets and strategies; to streamline rules to encourage innovation. At its core, the message is one that Europeans have heard before: For Europe to thrive, it must act as Europe. To the extent that it can, Washington should help it succeed. – Washington Post

The Americas

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered Elon Musk’s X to pay a fine of almost $1 million a day until he stops users from accessing the banned platform in the country. – Wall Street Journal

Spain has denied involvement in talks between Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez and President Nicolas Maduro’s government for his flight to Spain, before which he signed a letter saying he accepted Maduro’s election victory. – Reuters

A Norwegian human rights foundation gave its annual prize on Thursday to jailed Cuban dissident leader Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara for his “fearless opposition to authoritarianism through art”. – Reuters

Genaro Garcia Luna, who for several years led Mexico’s fight against the country’s violent drug trade, should spend the rest of his life in prison after accepting bribes to protect the cartels he was supposed to fight, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Thursday. – Reuters

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador blamed the United States in part on Thursday for the surge in cartel violence terrorizing the northern state of Sinaloa which has left at least 30 people dead in the past week. – Associated Press

An attempted prison break early Thursday in Honduras left two inmates dead and three injured, authorities said. The Latin American country has long been plagued by gang violence and overcrowded prisons. – Associated Press

Jamie Tronnes and Michael Barutciski write: But this acknowledgment comes too late to prevent an inevitable breakdown in the strategic relationship between Canada and its neighbor to the south. The U.S. should send a clear message that it isn’t planning to compensate for Canada’s past policy errors. It’s time for Ottawa to devote the necessary resources to border control. Canada needs to deal with the problem it has created. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

U.S. authorities have only recently become aware that the Iranians working as part of a hack-and-leak operation targeting President Donald Trump’s campaign attempted to share excerpts of stolen material with people associated with President Joe Biden’s campaign, a former top U.S. cybersecurity official said Thursday. – CyberScoop

A Federal Trade Commission inquiry found that popular social media and video streaming services engaged in “mass data collection” of their users, as well as some non-users, while also failing to implement privacy safeguards for children and teens. – CyberScoop

UnitedHealth Group is still in the recovery process months after a ransomware attack on its Change Healthcare subsidiary, with its chief information security officer saying the company has essentially “started over” with regard to its computer systems. – CyberScoop