Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

On the second full day with no U.S. troops on Afghan soil, the Taliban moved Wednesday to form a new Islamic government, preparing to appoint the movement’s leading religious figure, Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada, as the nation’s supreme authority, Taliban officials said. – New York Times 

Countries where people leaving Afghanistan are likely to wind up are bracing for a full-scale migration crisis in the wake of the Taliban’s rapid return to power and the hurried withdrawal of the United States and its allies. Warnings from aid groups have given credence to those fears. – Washington Post 

As the Taliban leadership closed in on forming a government Wednesday, its fighters were attacking the last bastion of Afghanistan not under their control, seeking to consolidate their military and political grip on the country. – Washington Post 

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Wednesday defended Sunday’s U.S. drone strike in Kabul that appears to have caused civilian casualties. – Washington Post 

Clashes flared in northern and central Afghanistan between the Taliban and local militias on Wednesday, as the Islamist movement continued to consolidate its grip on power in the Afghan capital two days after the U.S. ended its 20-year presence in the country. – Wall Street Journal 

The U.S. estimates it left behind the majority of Afghan interpreters and others who applied for visas to flee Afghanistan, a senior State Department official said on Wednesday, despite frantic efforts to evacuate those at risk of Taliban retribution. – Wall Street Journal 

In the absence of a government or formally announced rules under the new regime in Kabul, Taliban fighters in the provinces appear to be acting largely based on their own personal interpretation of what constitutes appropriate behavior. – Wall Street Journal 

U.S. troops destroyed or disabled nearly 100 combat vehicles and dozens of aircraft before vacating the airport in Kabul on Monday, in a last-ditch bid to deprive the Taliban of the use of some American military equipment. – Wall Street Journal 

European leaders, grappling with the question of how to interact with Afghanistan’s new hard-line Taliban leadership, are considering threatening sanctions to win commitments to safeguard human rights, cut terrorist ties and permit at-risk Afghans to leave. – Wall Street Journal 

Pope Francis criticized Western involvement in Afghanistan in an interview released on Wednesday, saying it showed the flaws of exporting Western values and nation-building. – New York Times 

As Afghans pay surging prices for eggs and flour and stand in long lines at the bank, money changers like Enayatullah and his underground financial lifeline have found themselves in desperate demand. – New York Times 

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told reporters Wednesday that it is “possible” American forces will coordinate with the Taliban on operations against the terrorist group ISIS-K. – New York Post 

A Qatari aircraft landed in Kabul Wednesday carrying a technical team to discuss the resumption of airport operations after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. – Agence France-Presse 

The U.S. says it will remain intimately engaged in diplomacy in Afghanistan on topics from counterterrorism and humanitarian aid to women’s rights — all without having a single diplomat posted there. – NBC 

A senior State Department official said Wednesday that it appeared a “majority” of Afghans who had worked for the U.S. military and applied for Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs) had not been successfully evacuated and remained in Afghanistan. – NBC 

The United States and its allies may have left Afghanistan in the hands of the Taliban but they still have “leverage” to make the Islamist militants honor commitments to allow people out of the country, according to U.S. President Joe Biden. – Reuters 

The new, Taliban-appointed head of Afghanistan’s central bank has sought to reassure banks the group wants a fully-functioning financial system, but has so far provided little detail on how it will supply funds to sustain it, said four bankers familiar with the matter. – Reuters 

Britain’s intelligence assessment was that it was unlikely Kabul would fall this year, foreign minister Dominic Raab said as he defended Britain’s withdrawal from Afghanistan after the Taliban swept across the country much more quickly than expected. – Reuters 

The United States will help build new facilities for border guards in Tajikistan along the Central Asian country’s frontier with Afghanistan and Uzbekistan to better respond to security threats, the U.S embassy in Dushanbe said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Aviation insurers are unwilling to insure commercial flights into Afghanistan because of the risk of attacks after U.S. troops left the country, making it hard to deliver aid or evacuate people, industry sources told Reuters. – Reuters 

A week into the evacuation from Kabul, the U.S. military was forced to take a drastic step: stop all flights from Hamid Karzai International Airport for seven hours because there was nowhere for the evacuees to go. – Reuters 

The Taliban has surrounded the only remaining province resisting its rule, a senior leader said on Wednesday, calling on rebels to negotiate a settlement with the group. – Reuters 

U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was heading to the region around Afghanistan on Wednesday in a push to rescue stranded British citizens and Afghan allies, amid strong criticism of the government’s rushed and chaotic evacuation effort. – Associated Press 

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was the right move but was carried out poorly, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said on Wednesday, in the first sound of criticism from a senior Israeli official about the recent withdrawal. – Jerusalem Post 

The White House refused to draw further attention to reports President Joe Biden and ousted Afghan President Ashraf Ghani were unprepared for Afghanistan’s quick collapse and that Biden had encouraged his counterpart in Kabul, Afghanistan, to fix his “perception” problem by selling a military strategy with local political heavyweights. – Washington Examiner 

Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s rise to power there, religious scholar Dr. Attia ‘Adlan, a  former Egyptian MP and current member of the International Union Of Muslims Scholars (IUMS), which is supported by Qatar and Turkey, published an article on the IUMS website in which he defended the Taliban against its detractors. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Despite US President Joe Biden calling the American evacuation from Kabul an “extraordinary success,” officials in his administration were appalled that US forces left with several hundred Americans still in Afghanistan, now under Taliban rule. – Times of Israel 

Editorial: Perhaps the United States, and the world, are dealing with a new and pragmatic Taliban, in which case Mr. Biden’s job will be easier. Or perhaps the Taliban will revert to its repressive and violent past, split into warring factions — or both. What’s certain is that, no matter how fervently Mr. Biden wishes America to be done with Afghanistan, Afghanistan is not done with America. – Washington Post 

Editorial: In fact, Biden knew the Taliban were overtaking the Afghan government — and asked Ghani to lie about it. The perception “is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban,” Biden said. “And there is a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.” Ghani gave him the facts: “We are facing a full-scale invasion, composed of Taliban, full Pakistani planning and logistical support, and at least 10-15,000 international terrorists, predominantly Pakistanis thrown into this.” Biden ignored them. – New York Post 

Michael Allen writes: Congress shouldn’t let the Biden administration pin its failures on the intelligence community. As the congressional intelligence committees begin their review this fall of the intelligence supplied by the intelligence community to policy makers, they should consider whether the Biden administration’s timing, method and execution of the withdrawal contributed to the downfall of the Kabul government. – Wall Street Journal 

Karl Rove writes: Mr. Biden’s shaky and listless performance has demolished the idea that he’ll be a credible contender in 2024. Also wrecked is any sense that Vice President Kamala Harris is an acceptable heir. The president’s failures and shortcomings are hers as well, while she’s failed to produce success in virtually every responsibility she has been given to handle. – Wall Street Journal 

Aaron Blake writes: While those Americans were understandably the priority for evacuations, though, that calculus cuts both ways. If the Taliban seeks to track down on U.S. allies who remain in the country, the impetus for a response won’t be the same, for understandable reasons. But that would also come with a significant potential cost for U.S. diplomacy and foreign policy — for the second time in just two years. – Washington Post 

David Gardner writes: The US withdrew from Afghanistan, even sharing intelligence with the Taliban, in line with its own perceived interests. In a region that has just been taught one more lesson in US unreliability, it would surely be worth Washington’s while to explore the power of the self-interest of others. – Financial Times 

Ruth Pollard writes: Yet the Biden White House is talking up renewed economic pressure on the Taliban to compel it to allow Americans and others to leave the country now that the full withdrawal of foreign forces is complete. At this point, any further tightening may just result in a wholesale collapse.  – Bloomberg 

Mihir Sharma writes: Biden and Merkel are very different people. But Biden will probably survive his Afghanistan disaster for the same reason that Merkel held power so long: At least it’s his disaster. Obama’s vice-president has discovered his own secret for success: “Do stuff, even if it’s stupid.” – Bloomberg 

Susan Yoshihara writes: Financial institutions and national capitals must solve the dilemma between stemming the unfolding humanitarian tragedy in Afghanistan and protecting human rights. To do that, they must cede seats at the table to a broad group of civil society, whose wisdom and selfless dedication we all need a lot more of in the future.  – The Hill 

Becket Adams writes: Yes, $24 billion is probably a more accurate number (it’s still just a guesstimate), but this doesn’t really change the nature of the complaint. The U.S., which finalized its chaotic, fatal, and frenzied withdrawal from Afghanistan this week, just handed the Taliban an amount of lethal equipment that can only be measured as a percentage of the Pentagon’s annual budget. – Washington Examiner 

David Marcus writes: Today, Biden’s only hope is that his diplomatic leverage with the Taliban will force them to allow our citizens and allies to escape and usher in a kinder and gentler Islamic caliphate that hews to Western norms. The only problem with this is that the Taliban wants death to America more than it wants International Monetary Fund loans and invitations to UN cocktail parties. That the president and his band of Ivy League idiots don’t understand this is frankly amazing. – New York Post 

Grace Melton writes: The Taliban undoubtedly will commit severe human rights abuses against the Afghan people, particularly women. To potentially stop those abuses, Biden must commit his administration to championing fundamental human rights for all individuals on the basis of human dignity. It’s time to get priorities straight. – Heritage Foundation 

James Jay Carafano writes: Biden very likely ended this endless war by triggering a new global war on terror, not to mention hamstringing the U.S in the competition with China over South Asia. The fact is the U.S. influence in Afghanistan is weaker today than when Bill Clinton blindly lobbed cruise missiles at bin Laden.  No military adviser worth his stars would have suggested any of these moves, which compromised sound military action. If nothing else, what was proved conclusively last week is that Biden is an appalling commander in chief. – Heritage Foundation 

Syria

Russian military police on Wednesday began patrolling the last rebel bastion in Syria’s southwest under a deal that halted an Iranian-backed government offensive to retake the birthplace of the 2011 popular uprising, military and civilian sources said. – Reuters 

A Russian-negotiated cease-fire took effect Wednesday in a volatile southern city, according to the Syrian opposition and state media. – Associated Press 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Thousands have been displaced by the fighting in southern Syria and the next step is unclear. Iran and Hezbollah may soon try to infiltrate the area which could increase tensions in the region, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah. For years Israel has been concerned over the possibility of a multi-front war, including a conflict in the north along the Lebanese and Golan border with Syria. Iran will have to tread carefully. – Jerusalem Post 

Lebanon

Lebanon is in free fall and must not become a “horror story”, a U.S. senator said during a visit to Beirut on Wednesday, voicing hope that a government would be formed this week to start addressing its destabilising financial meltdown. – Reuters 

The Lebanese government has received no request for fuel to be imported from Iran, the caretaker energy minister said on Wednesday, appearing to confirm that the Shi’ite group Hezbollah has bypassed the state with a move to import Iranian fuel. – Reuters 

A delegation of four U.S. senators said Wednesday that America is looking to help Lebanon overcome fuel shortages that have paralyzed the country. But they warned the import of Iranian oil into the crisis-hit country could have “severely damaging consequences.” – Associated Press 

Yemen

Two human rights groups Wednesday accused both sides in Yemen’s conflict of using starvation as a tactic of war. They urged the U.N. Security Council to refer the opposing participants to the International Criminal Court to investigate alleged crimes. – Associated Press 

Fighting has flared up between Yemen’s pro-government forces and Houthi rebels in the oil-rich government stronghold of Marib province, with at least 28 fighters killed over the last 24 hours, security officials from both sides and tribal leaders said on Thursday. – Associated Press 

The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthi group said it had intercepted three explosive-laden drones over Yemen on Wednesday, a day after shrapnel from a drone destroyed over Saudi Arabia wounded eight and damaged a civilian plane. – Reuters 

Middle East & North Africa

A member of the notorious ISIS execution squad dubbed “The Beatles” is scheduled to plead guilty Thursday to charges related to the “brutal hostage-taking scheme” in Syria, court records show. – New York Post 

Yossi Cohen writes: We must demand a stable Middle East that neutralizes the Iranian presence throughout the region to the best of its ability and which does not allow Iran to become a nuclear country. Thanks to the good relations between Jerusalem and Washington as well as between Bennett and Biden, these messages may be welcomed into the hearts of U.S. policymakers. – Ynet 

Shimon Samuels and Alex Uberti write: In fact, apparently frustrated and contemptuous toward the Arab-Israeli normalization process, Sunni Algeria seems willing to play a role as “alternative broker” for Syria, the Houthis and the Palestinians, and is apparently getting closer to Shi’ite Iran. None of the Abraham Accords stakeholders view such development positively. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid recently visited Morocco, to arrange the opening of embassies and fostering diplomacy. One year after its seminal start, may the Abraham Accords prevail and bear fruit! – Jerusalem Post 

China

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday warned U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry that worsening U.S.-China ties could derail cooperation on climate change, one of few areas of potential collaboration between the two rivals. – Washington Post 

Two Canadians imprisoned in China on espionage charges are linked by photos of unspecified military equipment one took and shared with the other, according to a government-run newspaper in China that appeared to make public new information about prosecutions that have rattled relations with Ottawa. – Wall Street Journal 

Editorial: Across the board, China’s government is not prioritising growth as it once did but instead trying to rein in unbridled capitalism, whether the power of big technology companies or rising economic inequality. That may be understandable — a slowdown in aluminium production has been blamed on a determination by the government to cut pollution — but it will mean the country is not the engine of global growth it was after the 2008 financial crisis. This time the rest of the world will have to find other engines to power the recovery. – Financial Times 

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan had achieved nothing but tragedy and loss of life on all sides and showed it was impossible to foist foreign values on other nations. – Reuters 

James Freeman writes: Despite very favorable policies from the White House, Russian President Vladimir Putin still doesn’t feel like doing U.S. President Joe Biden a solid. Readers will recall the bizarre episode last month when Mr. Biden, who is pushing expensive taxpayer-funded policies to reduce oil production, suddenly urged Russia and its allies in the international energy cartel to increase oil production. – Wall Street Journal 

Roman Badanin writes: Now more than ever, we Russian journalists need the support of our colleagues around the world, international organizations and national governments. They should urge the Russian government to respect the rights of journalists to go about their work as well as the rights of Russian citizens to access honest and independent information. […]The international community must act. To do otherwise is to become complicit in the Russian government’s efforts to silence our society. – Washington Post 

Tom Rogan writes: Putin’s assessment of Nazi intentions for the eastern Soviet peoples bears some undeniable truth . But we should not ignore Putin’s disdain for the common sacrifice of Western Europeans and the United States in defeating the Nazis . Putin’s intent is to present Russia as a special and distinct entity that cannot be aligned with Western norms and values. […]The connection point between the Nazis and the contemporary West is, by Putin’s argument, measured by a sustaining external threat. – Washington Examiner 

Africa

Fighters from Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region have looted food stores holding U.S. government aid as Ethiopia’s civil war spreads into new areas and hunger rises across the country, America’s top aid official there has charged. – New York Times 

Nigerian gunmen on Wednesday kidnapped 73 students after storming a high school in the northwest of the country in the latest in a series of mass abductions targeting pupils. – Agence France-Presse 

Rebels in eastern Congo ambushed a stalled civilian convoy that was under military escort Wednesday, killing five people and abducting dozens of hostages initially. About 20 people remained missing hours later, the army said. – Associated Press 

Anchored at the deepwater port of Berbera, an Ethiopian-flagged ship offloads its cargo of sugar and rice coming from India in what officials hope is a sign of a fresh era of trade in the self-declared east African state of Somaliland. – Financial Times 

Uzodinma Iweala writes: With such pressing issues at home, it may be hard for Biden to justify travel abroad, but re-establishing America’s tarnished leadership in the world means restoring ties with international allies. African countries can play as significant a role in America’s future as they did in its past, only this time as empowered partners. – Financial Times 

Cybersecurity

The Department of Justice has accelerated an investigation into Google’s digital advertising practices and may file an antitrust lawsuit against the internet giant before the end of the year, two people with knowledge of the government’s thinking said on Wednesday. – New York Times 

Israel’s foreign minister on Wednesday played down criticism of the country’s regulation of the cyberespionage firm NSO Group but vowed to step up efforts to ensure the company’s controversial spyware doesn’t fall into the wrong hands. – Associated Press 

Tim Culpan writes: To get there, though, we may see more and more data repositories, like Ant and its credit-scoring service, fall under direct or indirect government control, including the real-time processing and analysis that comes with it. Beijing’s message to companies is clear: Your data belongs to us. Right now that edict is merely figurative. Before long, it could be literal. – Bloomberg