Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas’s top leader Yahya Sinwar could well be dead today if not for a low-tech communications system honed in prison that shields him from Israel’s intelligence-gathering dragnet. Sinwar has largely shunned phone calls, text messages and other electronic communications that Israel can track and that have led to the demise of other militants. – Wall Street Journal

Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they fired a missile at central Israel on Sunday morning, marking an escalation in the Iran-backed group’s attacks on Israel. The missile didn’t strike its target, and no casualties were reported. – Wall Street Journal

The reaction of the children, who live in Gaza City with their father and mother, reflects the level of food insecurity that many people in Gaza experience. While the U.S. and other countries have sought to increase food deliveries to Gaza, aid groups say it hasn’t been enough. – Wall Street Journal

In the weeks since the bodies of the six hostages were found in Gaza — shortly after being shot at close range by their Hamas captors, Israel’s Health Ministry said — Israelis have returned to the streets for increasingly massive protests, calling on Netanyahu to secure the release of the remaining captives. – Washington Post

The Israeli military announced on Sunday that, based on an internal investigation, three hostages were probably killed as a result of an airstrike targeting a senior Hamas commander in November. – New York Times

The Israeli military said on Sunday it was investigating after a unit dropped unauthorized leaflets on a border area in southern Lebanon ordering residents to leave. – Reuters

At least 10 Palestinians were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Saturday, Palestinian media reported, and the Israeli military said it targeted a Hamas commander. – Reuters

The Israeli army took reporters on Friday to tunnels uncovered by troops in southern Gaza, including the entrance to the underground chamber where the bodies of six Israeli hostages killed by Hamas were recovered on Sept. 1. – Reuters

Palestinian officials say Israeli airstrikes have killed 16 people in the Gaza Strip, including five women and four children. A strike early Monday flattened a home in the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, killing at least 10 people, including four women and two children. – Associated Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Yemen’s Houthi rebels will pay a “heavy price” after a missile fired by the group landed in central Israel early Sunday. – Politico

A senior Hamas official told AFP on Sunday that the Palestinian Islamist terrorist group has ample resources to continue fighting Israel despite losses sustained over more than 11 months of war in Gaza. – Agence France-Presse

The cross-border violence between the IDF and Hezbollah in the North of the country “cannot continue,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said ahead of a meeting with US special envoy Amos Hochstein on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed the situation in Israel’s North in a phone call on Monday with his American counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Gallant’s office reported. – Jerusalem Post

The family of slain hostage Alex Lobanov authorized on Friday the publication of parts of the final video of him recorded by Hamas, giving a glimpse into the dire conditions he endured before being murdered by the terror group. – Times of Israel

Eleven months after tens of thousands of northern residents were displaced from their homes following Hamas’s October 7 attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to bring a motion before the security cabinet on Sunday to make their return back home an official war goal. – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces said Friday it had located a short underground tunnel near a hospital in the West Bank city of Tulkarem amid an ongoing counter-terrorism operation. – Times of Israel

Editorial: But President Biden fears escalation, and so Israel has to live with Houthi attacks while U.S. Navy commanders in the region play defense against Houthi assaults. The civilized world is losing its war with the Houthis and Iranians, and imagine what they will do when Iran gets nuclear weapons. The “heavy price” will be paid by the rest of the world. – Wall Street Journal

Harry Richer writes: However, even without a second Trump administration and despite the war in Gaza, momentum in this area is building. The Abraham Accords demonstrated that ideological differences, rooted in disputes that are decades old, can be crossed if and when mutual interest arise – and they can be crossed in a surprisingly short amount of time after conflicts. – Jerusalem Post

Dennis Ross writes: Currently, Netanyahu’s government is validating the Iranian approach, not undermining it. The fact that Iran has demonstrated that it does not want direct conflict—certainly not with the United States—should underpin the collective strategy that Washington must take the lead in implementing. But Israel has a role to play, and its own interests dictate that it should weaken rather than bolster Iran’s long-term strategy. – Washington Institute

Russia & Ukraine

With only four months left in the Biden administration and little hope of Congress approving additional funding for Ukraine no matter who wins the presidency, the White House is debating how best to help Kyiv given its limited toolbox. – Wall Street Journal

Its front line is on occupied Ukrainian farmlands, from which Russia and its partners have sold almost $1 billion in stolen grain on a burgeoning black market. Moscow’s forces in Ukraine since 2022 have occupied some of Europe’s most fertile farmland. The occupiers have either seized harvests or bought them cheaply, often forcibly. – Wall Street Journal

Any kind of “land for peace” deal would likely seal the fate of Donbas, which has been mired by conflict and separatism stoked by Moscow since the war there began a decade ago. Polling, however, shows that Ukrainians are not ready to give up their land, especially among those soldiers in Donbas who have been fighting for it for the past 10 years. – Washington Post

Russia on Friday accused six British diplomats of spying and announced it had stripped them of accreditation, a move that came as Western leaders were discussing whether to allow Ukraine to strike military targets deep inside Russia using long-range Western weapons. – Washington Post

Ukraine’s foreign ministry said on Friday that Russia had launched 8,060 Iran-developed Shahed drones at Ukraine since it began its full-scale invasion 2-1/2 years ago. – Reuters

Ukraine’s spy chief said on Saturday that Russia’s increased production of guided bombs as well as artillery ammunition deliveries from North Korea present major problems for Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. – Reuters

 A Russian-guided bomb struck a multi-storey apartment building on Sunday in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, triggering a fire and killing one person and injuring 42, officials said. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden is looking forward to discussing Ukraine’s war strategy with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this month and Washington is working on a “substantial” new aid package, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Saturday. – Reuters

Two pairs of Russian strategic bombers conducted training flights over the neutral waters of the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea on Sunday as part of the Ocean-24 drills, state-run TASS news agency reported on Sunday citing Russian Defence Ministry. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine conducted a major exchange of 206 prisoners on Saturday, 103 apiece, in their second such swap in two days, following negotiations mediated by the United Arab Emirates, officials said. – Reuters

NATO could have done more to arm Ukraine to try to prevent Russia’s invasion in 2022, the outgoing head of the Western military alliance said in an interview released on Saturday. – Reuters

Anna Husarska writes: Ukraine—respectfully but impatiently—awaits consent from its Western allies to use the long-range weapons they have supplied to defend itself to the fullest. Legally, Kyiv has every right to use them on Russian soil. The United Nations Charter affirms “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a member” of the U.N. The longer Washington waits to give Ukraine permission, the more civilians will die, towns will be obliterated, and Ukrainian ranks will be depleted. It’s past time for President Biden to stop this needless bloodshed. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: If Zelensky is wise, he’ll bring along Oleksander Budko, a wounded veteran who spoke to the YES group. Though he lost both of his legs in combat, the boyishly handsome Budko was recently chosen as “Ukraine’s most desirable man” on a national television show. That’s the spirit that sustains Ukraine in this dark moment, and it’s moving to see. But it’s not sentimentality that underlies deeper American support for Ukraine, but U.S. national interest. – Washington Post

Fareed Zakaria writes: The discussion in the West needs to move from airy abstractions to urgent reality. Ukraine needs help on all fronts — economic, political and military — and it needs that help now. The Biden administration should recognize the possibility that the next four months of aid to Ukraine could be the last major American help for that country and act accordingly. Better to hope for the best and plan for the worst. – Washington Post

Marc Champion writes: Putin, of course, knows all this. He wants to be able to replenish his armory with foreign “HIMARS” equivalents, for use against Ukraine’s deep supply lines and command centers, while applying nuclear intimidation to stop the US giving Kyiv any similar new advantage. There are no Marquess of Queensberry rules in war. Managing all this isn’t appeasement. But Ukraine’s allies need to do better job of it, calling out Putin’s manipulations and exaggerations sooner and more clearly, and making sure he doesn’t achieve his goals in this predatory war by simple intimidation. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: The question for the Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv is how to fracture Russia’s axis of sanctions evasion. Calibrating policy to reality rather than wishful thinking or local rhetoric matters here. The United States and Europe might sanction Turkey and Azerbaijan for their laundering of Russian gas and call out the cynicism and insincerity of Turkish aid to Ukraine. Zelensky himself, for example, has said Turkish drones were not as decisive as the bragging of Turkish officials suggested. – American Enterprise Institute

Harry Stevens writes: Most likely, efforts will shift to countries with lax enforcement or where officials can be more easily persuaded to look the other way. This may include countries that are allied with Russia already, or where there are active conflicts that have produced an excess of soldiers and a dearth of money. The number of foreign soldiers may serve as an indicator of how precarious the manpower situation is getting, with deeper economic and political implications within Russia. More broadly, it is indicative of the strains Russia is enduring in its effort to restore its superpower status. – War on the Rocks

Afghanistan

As the Taliban begins enforcing new draconian laws, Afghan women say that whatever hopes they once harbored for an easing of the severe restrictions on them have largely vanished. The new religious code issued late last month bans women from raising their voices, reciting the Quran in public and looking at men other than their husbands or relatives. – Washington Post

Afghanistan has always been prone to natural disasters. Among low-income nations, it ranked second in the number of deaths caused by them between 1980 and 2015, according to one report. However, the frequency and extremity of disasters such as flash flooding is on the rise, and climate breakdown is not solely responsible for these changes. – The Guardian

Saboor Sakhizada writes: Finally, the report fixates on tactical errors but misses the greater failure: The U.S. never truly prepared Afghanistan’s forces for independence. The war effort was privatized — civilian contractors replaced soldiers, costing more while fostering corruption. In the end, it wasn’t just a military failure — it was a systemic one. A system the U.S. built, propped up and ultimately abandoned. – The Hill

Turkey

With Turkish flags flying and chants of “God is great” resounding through the cemetery, Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, a Turkish American activist killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank, was laid to rest on Saturday in a town on Turkey’s Aegean coast. – New York Times

Turkey’s spy chief has met a delegation from the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Ankara and discussed the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, state broadcaster TRT said on Friday. – Reuters

Greek authorities have arrested a 40-year-old Turkish national who is a suspected member of a criminal gang operating in Turkey, police said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

Yemen

The operation has started to tow a Greek-registered oil tanker stranded in the Red Sea after an attack by Houthi militants last month, a shipping source told Reuters on Saturday. – Reuters

The ballistic missile fired by Yemen at Israel at 6:21 a.m. on Sunday morning was not a hypersonic missile as the Houthis have claimed, the IDF said Tuesday night. – Jerusalem Post

Egypt is reportedly preparing to host a Houthi delegation in an effort to reduce tensions in the Red Sea, according to Arab media reports. – Jerusalem Post

Jordan

Jordan’s King Abdullah has designated key palace aide Jafar Hassan as prime minister after the government resigned on Sunday, the royal court said, days after a parliamentary election in which the Islamist opposition made some gains in the U.S.-allied kingdom. – Reuters

Editorial: The recent news from Jordan should be a red alert sign to Israel, just as it surely is to Amman. Until now, Israel’s cooperation with the Hashemite kingdom has helped keep it safe from internal threats.The results of last week’s election magnify how serious a threat Israel could face from the east if the radical Islamists gain more power and threaten Abdullah’s reign.As Israel faces continued threats from Hezbollah, Hamas, and now the Houthis, helping Jordan to fend off its own threats is vital to Jerusalem’s interests. – Jerusalem Post

Neville Teller writes: Whatever the truth of the matter, it is clear that Jordan is currently in a febrile state, with the king and the government attempting to prevent widespread pro-Hamas sentiment from boiling over into active protests or worse. The IAF’s formal access of increased power and influence, following the parliamentary elections, is not calculated to pour oil on the troubled waters. Meanwhile, Jordan’s constitutional and political future looks even more uncertain. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

Shares of Korea Zinc, the world’s largest refined zinc producer, jumped as much as 24% to a record 690,000 won early Friday and were on course for their sharpest one-day percentage gain since listing in 1990. The benchmark Kospi index was 0.2% lower. – Wall Street Journal

The North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), the reclusive state’s rubber-stamp parliament, will convene a new session on Oct. 7 in Pyongyang to discuss matters related to a constitutional amendment, state media reported on Monday. – Reuters

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui has flown to Russia to attend the fourth Eurasian Women’s Forum and the BRICS Women’s Forum in Saint Petersburg, Russia’s embassy in North Korea said on Monday. – Reuters

Photos of North Korea’s uranium enrichment facility may show an undeclared site for building nuclear bombs just outside of its capital, analysts said. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu and discussed deepening strategic dialogue between the two countries, state media KCNA said on Saturday. – Reuters

South Asia

Indian opposition leader Arvind Kejriwal said on Sunday he will resign as chief minister of the Delhi regional government, two days after he was released from prison on bail in a graft case. – Reuters

The United States is committed to supporting Bangladesh’s inclusive economic growth, institution building and development and will provide an additional $202 million of aid, a U.S. delegation said during a visit to Dhaka on Sunday. – Reuters

A 24-year-old student has died from the Nipah virus in the southern Indian state of Kerala, a local medical official said on Monday, and 151 people who came into contact with the victim are under observation to prevent the spread of the deadly virus. – Reuters

Indian police have detained 104 striking workers protesting low wages at a Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) plant in southern India, as they were planning a march on Monday without permission, police officials said. – Reuters

A high-level U.S. delegation met Sunday with the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, to affirm “dedication to fostering inclusive economic growth,” according to the U.S. Embassy in Dhaka. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: Fabrication isn’t the only place where money is made in the chip supply chain. Design, assembly and packaging together represent about half of the sector’s revenue. India already has a fifth of the world’s chip designers, but only 7% of actual design facilities. New assembly plants are coming up and government support for design has been increased. But more could be done if New Delhi spends its money rationally. The real bang for its buck will come through investing in those sections of the supply chain where India may have a comparative advantage. – Bloomberg

Europe

Now, European nations are finding it difficult to give up those peacetime benefits, even as the war in Ukraine has revived Cold War-era tensions and the U.S. tries to shift its focus to China. Most are failing to get their armies in fighting shape. – Wall Street Journal

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Biden on Friday discussed allowing Ukraine to use long-range European-made cruise missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, according to U.S. and Western officials. – Wall Street Journal

Eurozone factories failed to produce more goods for a fourth straight month as the sector struggles to turn around a prolonged downturn led by its most important member, Germany. – Wall Street Journal

Strategists linked to Britain’s Labour Party have been offering advice to Kamala Harris about how to earn back disaffected voters and run a winning campaign from the center left. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer didn’t meet with Harris when visiting the White House on Friday. – Washington Post

Spain, hosting a high-level meeting on Friday of several Muslim and European countries on ways to end the Gaza war, called for a clear schedule for the international community to implement a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. – Reuters

French European Union Commissioner Thierry Breton on Monday resigned from the bloc’s executive body with immediate efect, publishing a picture of his resignation letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on social network X. – Reuters

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is meeting Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni in Rome on Monday, as the two very different politicians, from left and right, seek common cause to curb migrants reaching their shores by boat. – Associated Press

Trade unions and thousands of disgruntled workers are set to demonstrate through the Belgian capital Monday to protest the threat of thousands of layoffs in a state-of-the-art Brussels car factory and other key industries. – Associated Press

Mohamed A. El-Erian writes: Rather than lose the national narrative to endless debates on individual fiscal measures, the UK needs to double down on releasing the brakes on current drivers of growth and promoting future engines. The economy has a cyclical window to pursue the all-important secular growth mission with inflation down sharply and business sentiment on the way up. Failure to do so will make tomorrow’s fiscal conversation significantly more problematic while rendering even more elusive the high, inclusive and sustainable growth that so many need. – Bloomberg

James Stavridis writes: Greater NATO engagement across the Balkans would be a smart way to court the Serbs. This should include robust training exercises led by Balkan NATO members such as Greece and Bulgaria; more sales of Western military technology across the region, including better armor and artillery; sending US officers to Serbian war colleges and their senior officers to ours; and approaching the Serbs for participation in NATO missions outside the Balkans, especially involving cyber-defenses and special forces in counternarcotics. – Bloomberg

Andrea Rotter writes: Without greater space literacy, strategic thinking fully adapted to the new geopolitical realities, and the sufficient political will at the relevant levels to implement the necessary measures, it will not be possible to successfully address the many challenges and be a reliable partner. Given the increasing dynamics in space, Germany can no longer afford to remain on the sidelines when it comes to space security. – War on the Rocks

The Americas

Argentina’s President Javier Milei said during a presentation to Congress on Sunday on the 2025 budget that he would defend his government’s commitment to maintaining fiscal balance and veto all bills that threaten it. – Reuters

Ecuador will implement a nationwide blackout for maintenance in the country’s electricity system overnight on Wednesday, from 10 p.m. local time to Thursday at 6 a.m., the government said in a statement on Sunday. – Reuters

An environmental activist who protested mining and hydro-electric projects in northern Honduras in an effort to preserve tropical forests and rivers has been killed, police said on Sunday. – Reuters

Brazil’s Supreme Court on Sunday authorized the government to exempt spending on wildfires and droughts in the Amazon and Pantanal regions from this year’s fiscal target as the country grapples with the economic impacts of its worst drought on record. – Reuters

Brazil has almost squashed the illegal gold rush that led thousands of wildcat miners into the Yanomami reservation in the Amazon rainforest and caused a humanitarian crisis of disease and malnutrition, the man in charge of operations said. – Reuters

Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes decided to lift freezes previously imposed on Starlink and X bank accounts after ordering the transfer of 18.35 million reais ($3.3 million) from the accounts to the national coffers. – Reuters

An Indigenous business in Colombia, acting, it says, “in defense of the coca leaf,” is asking the government to revoke the beverage giant’s century-old trademark on the word “coca.” The coca plant, which is used to produce not only Coca-Cola but also cocaine, is a major legal crop in several South American countries. – Washington Post

Two Spanish nationals arrested in Venezuela had no links to the Spanish secret service and Spain was not involved in any plan to politically destabilize the South American country, a Spanish foreign ministry source said on Sunday. – Reuters

Juan Carlos Pinzon and Gerardo Caneva write:  Allowing Maduro to fulfill his electoral fraud would be robbing Venezuela of its legitimate president, Edmundo González. Furthermore, in today’s era of global power competition, allowing Maduro to prevail will harm the region in unpredictable ways. The time for action to guarantee freedom and democracy is now, regardless of the cost. Rewarding Maduro’s dictatorship will only encourage others to play the same game. – The Hill

United States

Donald Trump was the target of a second apparent assassination attempt Sunday when Secret Service agents opened fire on a gunman at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Fla., where the former president was golfing just a few holes away. Trump was unhurt, and the suspect fled but was arrested shortly later. – Wall Street Journal

Ryan Routh, the man arrested in connection with an apparent attempt to assassinate former President Donald Trump Sunday, has a lengthy police record in North Carolina, built inexpensive houses in Hawaii and has a fixation with the war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

Senator JD Vance outlined a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. But objectively, it sounds a lot like Vladimir Putin’s. Mr. Vance’s critics immediately said he had described a Russian victory, while his supporters said he had offered the only realistic path to peace. – New York Times

The FBI said on Sunday it was assessing the credibility of threats against Haitians at Wittenberg University following baseless claims by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump that the migrants in the town were eating cats and dogs. – Reuters

Editorial: Especially after Butler and now West Palm Beach, the Secret Service cannot be seen as failing to protect the candidates. Any harm that comes to either nominee, but especially to Mr. Trump after two failed attempts, would lead to conspiracy theories that could lead to further violence. The country, and President Biden, can’t afford to tempt fate again. – Wall Street Journal 

Zachary Faria writes: If Democrats truly want to focus on foreign influence operations targeting our political systems, then it is well past time for a reevaluation of the party’s stance on China and why its prominent politicians are so susceptible to Chinese operations. After all, as Democrats have said since Trump came onto the scene, it is important that we put “country over party” when it comes to our politics. And no, the country in question is not China. – Washington Examiner

Timothy Snyder writes: Today, the flaws of the American system are all too apparent, its constitutional pressure points amplified by partisan misinterpretations based in ill will and supported by oligarchs and foreign foes. As the story of our Polish allies reminds us, the problems of injustice were inscribed from the beginning: the republic’s unfulfilled promise of freedom. – The Atlantic

Defense

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey avoided acknowledging that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris made a false claim during the debate last week when Harris said that there are no military members in an active combat zone. – Politico

One of the Army’s most modernized armored brigades and its parent division recently conducted the service’s first long-range, fully remote cybersecurity operation at the division level. – Defense News

The Navy is slated to commission its very first Virginia-class submarine designed for a fully gender-integrated crew on Saturday. A submarine designed and built for both genders has been a long time coming. The New Jersey is entering the fleet roughly 14 years after then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates ended the ban on women serving on subs in 2010. – Defense News

Facing ballooning costs for shipbuilders, the Navy is proposing restructuring how it pays for submarine and aircraft carrier workers to allow more flexibility for shipyards to raise wages and build infrastructure, USNI News has learned. – USNI News

As he rolled out the latest batch of incremental improvements aimed at helping troops have easier lives, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday that he wished he could move faster and be bolder. – Military.com

Peter D. Feaver and Heidi Urben write: Congress, for its part, should limit the use of the Insurrection Act, and courts must move swiftly to adjudicate messy cases that might arise because of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. United States. Politicians and the courts must do everything in their power to protect the military from a wayward executive because it is not the military’s job to do so. – Foreign Affairs

Doreen Horschig and Heather Williams write: The United States must continue to invest in its alliances, extend its commitment to deterrence, and engage in honest dialogue with both nuclear and nonnuclear states, making clear the stakes if the current slide continues. The nuclear order is quietly breaking down, and a breach in just one of its pillars could catastrophically undermine them all. – Foreign Affairs