Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities discovered a mass burial site in the city of Izyum after liberating the city over the weekend, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday evening. Earlier in the day, Zelensky met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv. – Washington Post

Despite Ukrainian forces’ startling gains in the war against Russia, the Biden administration anticipates months of intense fighting with wins and losses for each side, spurring U.S. plans for an open-ended campaign with no prospect for a negotiated end in sight. – Washington Post

The United States on Thursday strictly limited the export of fentanyl and related chemicals to Russia, saying that they “may be useful” as chemical weapons to support Russia’s “military aggression.” – Washington Post

To address Russia’s shortage of soldiers to send to war in Ukraine, the Wagner mercenary group seems to be making an offer that it hopes convicted criminals can’t refuse: a get out of jail card. – Washington Post

Ukrainian authorities said Thursday that they staved off flooding caused by a Russian missile strike on the southern city of Kryviy Rih, as Moscow targeted the dam with new salvos and Ukrainian forces consolidated their positions in recently retaken areas. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s lower house of parliament will consider summoning Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to face questioning in a closed session, senior lawmaker Sergei Mironov was cited as saying by Kommersant newspaper on Thursday. – Reuters

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that if the United States decided to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, it would cross a “red line” and become “a party to the conflict”. – Reuters

The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors on Thursday passed a resolution demanding that Russia end its occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. – Reuters

Pope Francis on Thursday said it was morally legitimate for nations to supply weapons to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian aggression. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was involved in a car accident in the capital, Kyiv, on Wednesday evening but was not seriously hurt, his spokesman said on Facebook. – Associated Press

The Biden administration announced Thursday it will send another $600 million in military aid to Ukraine, as the U.S. rushes more weapons to fuel Kyiv’s counteroffensive that has reclaimed large stretches of the embattled country and forced Russian troops to retreat. – Associated Press

The troubles in the Ukrainian city of Izyum did not leave with retreating Russian troops, in fact some residents have now accused each other of cosying up to the occupiers. – Agence France-Presse

The US announced a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia’s military intelligence and defense industry, as well as people accused of stealing Ukrainian crops, in a new push to restrict President Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war. – Bloomberg

Surrounded by inmates in what appears to be a Russian prison yard, a man who bears a “frightful resemblance” to a sanctioned businessman linked to Russia’s most infamous mercenary group offers an early release for those who survive a six-month stint fighting at the front in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Gallyamov isn’t the only one reading between the lines. A group of officials in St. Petersburg and Moscow have begun calling for Putin’s ouster. Some of the officials have accused Putin of high treason for invading Ukraine. Since demanding Putin step down, a court in Russia has ordered the dissolution of a municipal council that wants Putin out of office. – U.S. News & World Report

Leonid Bershidsky writes: He must, however, realize that if military defeats continue, retaining his clout will require surprising, even drastic moves. The world might yet be treated to a re-enactment of the tired cornered rat metaphor from Putin’s childhood — something to keep in mind but not to fear: All dictatorships end someday, and few go out in a blaze of glory. – Bloomberg

Javier Blas writes: Withdrawing the pilotage service in the dangerous waters of the straits is playing, ahem, Russian roulette. The last thing we need to add to the already high cost — in lives and property — of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is something like the Exxon Valdez catastrophe in the Baltic. – Bloomberg

Yulia Bychkovska writes: This is a time of grave risk. The Chernobyl accident made some areas of its hinterland uninhabitable for 20,000 years and a Zaporizhzhya release could be much worse. Such an event cannot be allowed to occur. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Jan Kallberg writes: Putin’s grip over Russia is sliding away in slow motion, a drip-drip of authority that increases with every tank turret blasted into the Ukrainian sky. For an authoritarian regime, this is a disaster, and brings nearer the day when the military loses its fear of ignoring or disobeying orders, ceases to fight, and instead trains its disillusioned eyes on the man in the Kremlin who made this mess. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Daniel Fata and Janina Staguhn write: In military terms, now is the time to undertake the prudent planning required to prepare for the next phases. It would be a disservice to the people of Ukraine for all they have fought and sacrificed for if the international community is not prepared for reconstruction when the fighting stops. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Amy Mackinnon, Robbie Gramer, and Jack Detsch write: “Their success in pushing the Russians back will help them politically,” said one senior Eastern European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. “But seeing the Russian collapse around [Kharkiv], I’m concerned that some in the West will warn against ‘humiliating’ Putin and try to back up their resistance to give more weapons to Ukraine by fears of a Russian non-conventional response and escalation.” – Foreign Policy

Afghanistan

The Taliban’s foreign affairs ministry on Thursday condemned the United States’ decision to transfer Afghan central bank reserves into a Swiss-based trust, saying it was against international norms. – Reuters

Authorities in Pakistan said they have offered the Taliban “intelligence and operational assistance” to hunt down the leader of a Pakistani militant group who is believed to be in Afghanistan. Masood Azhar, the head of the Jaish-e-Mohammed organization, was designated a global terrorist by the United Nations Security Council in 2019. – Bloomberg

The United Nations says it is “gravely concerned” by a video that appears to show Taliban militants executing captured members of an Afghan resistance group. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Middle East & North Africa

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that a staff mission will visit Lebanon next week to discuss ways to “speed up” implementation of agreed reforms required for an IMF loan program amid deteriorating living conditions in the country. – Reuters

Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned on Thursday that Lebanon would suffer dire consequences if the Hezbollah terror group torpedoes US-mediated talks between Israel and its northern neighbor over a maritime dispute. – Times of Israel

The Israeli military has identified the withdrawal of some Iranian militia forces as well as Iranian and Hezbollah operatives withdrawing from Syria. Iran has been one of the main allies of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the decade-long war that ravaged the country, sending thousands of militia fighters and equipment in an attempt to entrench itself there. – Jerusalem Post

Israel stands with the United Arab Emirates against Iranian terror and looks forward to a burgeoning economic relationship, Prime Minister Yair Lapid told visiting UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, when the two met in Jerusalem to mark the second anniversary of the Abraham Accords. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The signing of the Abraham Accords two years ago marked the start of a positive relationship for the benefit of all; like all relationships, there must be an effort to maintain it. More work is needed also to expand it. The past two years have shown us the way to a better future, together, in peace – cause for celebration, indeed. – Jerusalem Post

Haley Bobseine writes: Agreements will not resolve the fundamental political issues plaguing Iraq; instead, the focus will be on satisfying the demands of the political elites. What will the Iraqi people’s future be? As one Iraqi academic lamented to the author, “We are damaging everything that should be a foundation for our political system: the courts, the parliament, and the constitution.” – Middle East Institute

China

President Biden’s nominee to take over the U.S. military’s nuclear arsenal and missile-defense operations warned on Thursday that China’s rise as a nuclear power poses historic threats and challenges requiring a reevaluation of current policies. – Washington Post

Amid the global economic uncertainty triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged Thursday to “inject stability into a turbulent world.” – Washington Post

Chinese investment in U.S. venture-capital funds is flowing, demonstrating that economic ties between Silicon Valley and China remain deep despite political and national security risks, according to investors, government officials and a new report. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he sought to address Beijing’s concerns Thursday about the Ukraine war in his first meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since the start of the conflict, which has recently brought major battlefield setbacks for Moscow. – Wall Street Journal

Mr. Putin was also looking to China as a lifeline at a time of weakness: Russian forces have suffered significant losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, and as Western sanctions continue to inflict damage on the Russian economy, Beijing has emerged as a major buyer of Russian products. – New York Times

Chinese leader Xi Jinping stayed away from a dinner attended by 11 heads of states at a regional security summit in line with his delegation’s COVID-19 policy, a source in the Uzbek government told Reuters on Friday. – Reuters

A veteran Hong Kong opera star apologised and declared his patriotism on Thursday after his praise for Britain’s late Queen Elizabeth II sparked a backlash among nationalists in China. – Agence France-Presse

China is warning that global rules prohibiting the spread of nuclear weapons are at risk because of different non-proliferation standards being applied to Iran and US allies. – Bloomberg

China’s military leaders share a potential weakness that has undermined their Russian counterparts in Ukraine and could hamper their ability to wage a similar war, according to a new report from the US National Defense University. The report identifies a lack of cross-training as a possible Achilles’ Heel within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), but analysts remain wary of underestimating China’s capabilities and warn against comparisons with Russia. – CNN

Clara Ferreira Marques writes: So it’s helpful to be pictured alongside leaders like Xi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Headlines will still trumpet that China sees ties “as stable as a mountain.” The message, directed back home and at the Global South, as much as at the collective West, is that Russia is not isolated — it’s in business. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: This cuts to a basic truth: The Sino-Russian relationship is not an alliance so much as a collaboration between two leaders who want to weaken the West in order to extend their independent imperial interests. Xi’s rhetoric underlines this point, emphasizing the catch-22 that Putin’s Russia now poses for China. Xi told Putin that their two nations should “inject stability into a turbulent world … safeguard the security interests of the region, and safeguard the common interests of developing countries and emerging market countries.” – Washington Examiner

Kelly Alkhouli writes: To protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, it is imperative to not fall into Xi’s trap. Symbolic gestures, such as delegations visiting the island, are needless provocations that could endanger Taiwan and anger neighboring countries for being sidelined. The U.S. should not be seen as acting alone on this issue, which is why it is necessary to work with neighboring countries on de-escalating tensions. – The Hill

Asia

Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida tumbled to its lowest level since he took office, hit by growing anger over a state funeral for slain former leader Shinzo Abe and his ruling party’s ties to a controversial church, an opinion poll showed. – Reuters

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on Friday accused each other of using heavy weaponry such as tanks and mortars in an escalating border conflict that has killed at least three people and injured 27 since fighting broke out two days ago. – Reuters

Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh said on Thursday that he supports the construction of oil and gas pipelines from Russia to China via Mongolia. – Reuters

Members of the European Parliament backed a resolution on Thursday that condemned China’s live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and called for closer ties between the European Union and Taipei. – Reuters

Azerbaijan said Thursday that 71 of its troops had died in border clashes with Armenia over the last two days in the worst fighting since 2020. Yerevan said a ceasefire was holding on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, with no fresh violence reported overnight. – Agence France-Presse

Marc Champion and Anthony Halpin write: European countries were the biggest buyers of Azerbaijani gas in the period with 7.3 billion cubic meters. Turkey bought 5.4 billion cubic meters and Georgia purchased 1.7 billion cubic meters. Azerbaijan plans to double exports to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027. – Bloomberg

Africa

U.S. President Joe Biden and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are set to meet Friday at the White House for talks on Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate issues, trade and more. Ramaphosa is among African leaders who have maintained a neutral stance in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with South Africa abstaining from a United Nations vote condemning Russia’s actions and calling for a mediated settlement. – Associated Press

Violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo continues to rage unabated despite US legislation aimed at stopping the mineral trade from fueling conflict, the Government Accountability Office said. – Bloomberg

Nigeria’s consumer inflation surged to a 17-year high in August 2022, its statistics agency said Thursday, signalling more hardship for citizens and businesses in Africa’s largest economy. – Associated Press

African nations must help combat climate change and halt a rise in temperatures that is hitting crop yields and causing flooding and drought in the region, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told a conference in Senegal’s capital on Thursday. – Reuters

North America

Mexico has arrested an Army general accused of involvement in the deaths of the 43 students who disappeared on their way to a demonstration in 2014, authorities said, a crime that shocked the country but remains unsolved. – Washington Post

Mexican crime lord Jorge Costilla Sanchez was sentenced to life in prison in a U.S. federal court on Thursday for his involvement in trafficking marijuana and cocaine to the United States, the Justice Department said. – Reuters

Josh Rogin writes: Heritage is positioned well for success among the conservative base — while the GOP is in opposition. But when Republicans eventually return to power, Roberts and Heritage will no longer be able to straddle the fence. Will the party of Reagan really become the party of foreign policy “restraint”? For the sake of the country and the world, let’s hope not. – Washington Post

Defense

After more than 100 days on the job, the U.S. Department of Defense’s top artificial intelligence official said Thursday that the office’s strategy will take a down-up approach and start with data. – Defense News

With a small business innovation grant program favored by the Pentagon set to expire this month, Congress is racing to draft compromise reauthorization legislation that addresses concerns about companies abusing the awards process. – Defense News

The nominee to lead the U.S. nuclear arsenal said Thursday that supply chain snags that are pummeling the defense industrial base are also hurting Washington’s plans to modernize its aging nuclear arsenal. – Defense News

The Department of the Air Force is now offering more reenlistment bonuses to troops in cyber-related careers at a time when the service is preparing to cut incentive pay for some of its toughest non-tech jobs. – Military.com