Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The hasty flight of Russians from the village was part of a stunning new reality that took the world by surprise over the weekend: The invaders of February are on the run in some parts of Ukraine they seized early in the conflict. – Washington Post

After months on the edge of Russian occupation, and two days of heavy bombardment, residents of this beleaguered town came out Saturday to clean up — and celebrate, as a fast-moving Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Russian forces into a stunning retreat from key strategic areas in the northeast Kharkiv region. – Washington Post

As Russian forces hastily retreated in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday in one of their most embarrassing setbacks of the war, President Vladimir V. Putin was at a park in Moscow, presiding over the grand opening of a Ferris wheel. – New York Times

A lightning Ukrainian offensive in the country’s northeast has reshaped what had become a grinding war of attrition. In a matter of days, Russian front lines have buckled, Moscow’s troops have fled and one village after another has come once more beneath Ukraine’s yellow and blue banner. – New York Times

Ukraine’s rout of Russian forces this weekend is creating a new kind of political challenge for President Vladimir V. Putin: It undercuts the image of competence and might that he has worked for two decades to build. – New York Times

In a war that has for months been defined by grinding battles between two armies along largely static front lines ranging 1,500 miles, the stunning speed of Ukraine’s advance in the country’s northeast has reshaped the conflict in a matter of days. – New York Times

The US is threatening to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil that rely on western services and fail to abide by the price cap proposed by G7 countries, as the Biden administration vows to strictly enforce the policy once it takes effect. – Financial Times

Ukraine’s rapid territorial gains have caught Russia off guard at a vulnerable section of their front line in an attack that threatens an important supply hub used by Moscow in the east, military analysts said. – Reuters

Russia’s invasion caused over $97 billion in direct damages to Ukraine through June 1, but it could cost nearly $350 billion to rebuild the country, a report released Friday by the World Bank, Ukrainian government and European Commission shows. – Reuters

The United States is deeply concerned by the Russian government’s treatment of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Friday. – Reuters

Operations at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine have been fully stopped as a safety measure, Energoatom, the state agency in charge of the plant, said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russian nationalists called angrily on Sunday for President Vladimir Putin to make immediate changes to ensure ultimate victory in the Ukraine war, a day after Moscow was forced to abandon its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address U.S. defense contractors later this month when he headlines the annual Future Force Capabilities Conference and Exhibition hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). – The Hill

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was surprised by former President Trump’s continued praise of Russian President Putin even after Moscow invaded Ukraine, given how much information Trump was privy to about the fellow world leader. – The Hill

The chief political leader of Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas Ismail Haniyeh landed in Moscow on Saturday ahead of a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the Gaza-based terror group said. – Jerusalem Post

The rapid success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in recent days has left Russian forces retreating and yet more videos on social media of abandoned tanks and artillery units. And for Russia, every piece of hardware destroyed or abandoned on the battlefield underlines a growing consensus among Russia watchers that Moscow’s losses of both personnel and equipment in Ukraine are reaching a potential breaking point. – Breaking Defense

Editorial: A nuclear escalation can’t be accepted as normal warfare. Radiation fallout could reach NATO territory. NATO will have to increase its military aid and let Ukraine take the fight inside Russia. We hope Western leaders are making clear to Mr. Putin that he will become a global pariah if he does go nuclear. The prospect is horrific to contemplate, but this is the reality of a world with dictators on the march after decades of Western complacency. Ukraine’s advances are encouraging, but Mr. Putin’s threat to the world is far from over. – Wall Street Journal 

Ross Douthat writes: Throughout the war, the immediate policies of Ukraine hawks have been mostly vindicated even as their long-term strategy has remained more doubtful. This is likely to be the season where that gap closes, where the speculative becomes reality, and we learn more about what war in the longer term will mean. In which case we should hope both for rapid Ukrainian advances, and for wisdom, care and caution to accompany any victories they may win. – New York Times

Seth J. Frantzman writes: It’s unclear if Russia will react to the recent Ukrainian offensive. If it prefers to use separatists and proxies to fight and then abandons them or blames them for the debacle, Moscow could be setting up a stratagem that enables it to save face by blaming others. If Russia feels it is losing too much material, it might respond with more attacks on Ukrainian cities. The question is whether NATO powers have equipped Ukraine with the right weapons and defenses to stop any Russian reaction. – Jerusalem Post

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth write: The EU must impose measures to lessen the blow of Putin’s plan to weaponize winter. Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo perhaps said it best: The EU needs to “stop the bleeding” of high energy prices. Its energy ministers must work with Ukraine, NATO and the International Atomic Energy Agency to prepare for the possibility of a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP, its containment and clean-up. This war is bigger than Ukraine and victory can be secured only through offensive action. The Russian military is approaching its most vulnerable moment. – The Hill

William Courtney writes: Russian business leaders have obligations to employees, owners, suppliers and customers. They must make reasonable efforts to protect those interests. Although business leaders may fear Kremlin power, they may also realize that Russia’s war, isolation and economic erosion pose rising threats to their businesses. The choice is theirs to make. – The Hill

Giselle Donnelly writes: The United States can make this the moment when the previous “Ukraine can win” proposition becomes a “Ukraine will win” prospect. The Biden administration has traveled a long road from Kabul to Kyiv. It must now press on, not only to restore Ukrainian sovereignty and liberty but to revive the world’s faith in American power and principle. – American Enterprise Institute

Maxim Starchak writes:  Any agreements on a demilitarized or nuclear safety and security protection zone will be difficult to implement — the whole concept would collapse in the event of a provocative act; in the event of shelling, for example, either side could immediately withdraw from the deal. […]It can only be hoped that the plant will remain a peaceful site of nuclear deterrence, and that the Kremlin is not interested in a nuclear catastrophe on the territory under its control. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Ben Cahill writes: The oil market is full of clever, rapacious people with strong incentives to bend or break rules. If the price cap is imposed, economic theory will collide with the messy reality of the market. Still, this is a better option than the EU embargo and insurance ban. […]It will avoid the worst-case scenario of a market shortage and a huge price spike—but probably will not dramatically cut Russia’s oil revenue. – Center for Strategic and  International Studies

Anthony B. Kim writes: Unsurprisingly, there is nothing “humanitarian” in the new doctrine either. […]Mr. Putin clearly has imperialist ambitions, and has no compunction about using naked, violent aggression to expand his empire. As long as his barbaric invasion of Ukraine grinds on, he deserves no seat at a gathering of supposedly civilized world leaders. Russia should be unseated from the G-20 before the heads of state descend on Bali this November. – Heritage Foundation

Lionel Beehner and Thomas Sherlock write: The revival of the appeal of Putin’s Russia for the Western cultural right will depend on several factors, including how long the carnage lasts in Ukraine. While many in the United States are repulsed by Russia’s brutality, others wonder whether the mounting cost of defending Ukraine, given growing inflation and a looming recession, is necessary to safeguard U.S. core interests and values. […]The combined, if uncoordinated, political influence of these strange bedfellows may allow for the creeping rehabilitation of Putin and his cultural policies. – Foreign Policy

Brian Whitmore writes: How Moscow would react to a new liberation of Eastern Europe would depend on how a defeat in Ukraine changes the internal political dynamics inside Russia. But in any scenario, Russia would be weakened militarily, economically, and politically. Its capacity to resist the new reality would be diminished. Inevitably, there would be calls in some Western capitals not to “humiliate” Moscow. But such appeals should be resisted. […]A free Belarus combined with a truly independent, sovereign, and whole Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova would be a game-changer. – Foreign Policy

Hezbollah

According to Matthew Levitt, director of the Jeanette and Eli Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Hezbollah wants to “scratch their resistance itch.” – Jerusalem Post

IDF Chief of Staff (Lt.-Gen.) Aviv Kohavi stressed that the quiet on the northern front is “more deceptive than ever,” warning that “the state of Lebanon and Hezbollah will bear the consequences if the State of Israel’s sovereignty is harmed,” during a ceremony marking Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin’s entrance as the head of IDF Northern Command on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

In a new military assessment cited by Channel 12 news Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces are said to believe there is a “reasonable possibility” of a confrontation with the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group as tensions heighten amid US-mediated talks over a maritime dispute. – Times of Israel

Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will urge Moscow to send goods though a U.N.-backed Black Sea corridor when he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin next week, broadcaster Haberturk said on Friday, seeking to keep Russia engaged in the arrangement. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Friday that it expected President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the implementation of a deal on Ukrainian grain exports, which both have criticised, when they meet in Uzbekistan next week. – Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday that Turkish security forces had arrested a “senior executive” of the jihadist Islamic State group. – Agence France-Presse

Nicholas Danforth writes: He offered no concessions on sanctions over Turkey’s S-400 purchase, and — despite a brief flurry of interest in Turkey running the Kabul airport after America’s withdrawal — did not go out of his way to solicit Turkish cooperation on other issues. Whatever policies Turkey has carried out with regard to Ukraine, it has carried out against this backdrop. To the extent Ankara’s advocates believe the West should be pleased with these policies, that suggests a more solicitous approach to Erdogan was not necessary. To the extent Washington is still frustrated with Turkey’s behavior, it can at least take comfort in the fact it is a consequence of Russia’s failure.  – War on the Rocks

Middle East & North Africa

A Syrian doctor working for the Mossad was arrested by Lebanese authorities at Beirut Airport, Hezbollah-affiliated news outlet Al-Akhbar reported on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Katherine Zimmerman and Brian Carter write: Current trends in southern Yemen will favor AQAP. Factional infighting within the Yemeni government diverts attention from AQAP. The UAE’s shift away from Yemen has reduced its ability and willingness to prevent the forces it had trained from focusing on the ongoing power struggle in southern Yemen rather than counterterrorism. […]Now is the time to work with the various Yemeni factions to better unify the nascent coalition government and thereby keep AQAP down and out. – American Enterprise Institute

Mohamed Abdelaziz writes: Fewer Egyptians appear open to another of the government’s policy efforts when it comes to interpretations of Islam. Despite the Egyptian government’s promotion and support for religious reform, less than a quarter of Egyptians now agree with this proposition: “We should listen to those among us who are trying to interpret Islam in a more moderate, tolerant, and modern direction.” These numbers, too, remain unchanged over the past year, though represent a drop from when 31% supported such a proposition in October 2017. – Washington Institute

Jonathan M. Winer writes: Convening municipal leaders to update Libya’s constitution with provisions to share the country’s wealth at the local level might unleash new energies and unlock new solutions. At the very least, it would provide an alternative to relying on national figures who have proven themselves incapable of forming a unitary and inclusive government or even agreeing on a schedule for elections. Going local could avoid the trap of relying on those with vested interests in maintaining the destructive Libyan status quo, as sha’biyah leaders have much to gain from a more inclusive approach to sharing the country’s power and wealth. – Middle East Institute

China

Chinese state media say the country’s top legislator decried sanctions against Russia during a recent visit to the country, underscoring China’s backing of Moscow in its war on Ukraine despite claims of neutrality. – Associated Press

Western countries face a dilemma as the U.N. Human Rights Council opens on Monday: confront China over human rights violations in its Xinjiang region and risk failing or miss the biggest opportunity to bring accountability in years. – Reuters

Xi Jinping will leave China for the first time in more than two years for a trip this week to Central Asia where he will meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin, just a month before he is set to cement his place as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. – Reuters

The Biden administration plans next month to broaden curbs on U.S shipments to China of semiconductors used for artificial intelligence and chipmaking tools, several people familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

China’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva said on Friday that Beijing would not cooperate with the U.N. human rights office following the release of a long-awaited report on alleged human rights abuses in the far western region of Xinjiang. – Reuters

Arthur Herman writes: In the case of the oceans, for 200 years that was the British navy; in the 20th century it was the U.S. Given what we know of China’s behavior in other circumstances, American leadership in space is essential for the future of humanity. Kennedy himself struck this note in his Rice University speech. “We set sail on this new sea because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won,” he said. […]Sixty years later, we face a similar choice when it comes to the space race. How we respond will determine the future of space and the future of freedom in the 21st century. –  Wall Street Journal

Clara Ferreira Marques writes: Xi will come under pressure in Uzbekistan. The Chinese leader’s balancing act is more uncomfortable than ever — but it isn’t over yet. Not least because Beijing knows all too well that Putin has nowhere else to turn. – Bloomberg

Adrian Wooldridge writes: Every technological innovation puts more power in the hands of surveillance capitalists who prosper by solving our everyday problems. […]The problem with surveillance is not just that it produces obvious monstrosities such as concentration camps. It is that it addresses very real problems — from identifying terrorist threats to making it easier to pay for lattes — even as it puts untold power in the hands of our masters. – Bloomberg

Gary Clyde Hufbauer writes: It’s in the U.S. national interest to back the $80 billion capital increase proposed by Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., and embrace an IDB that will do a lot more than simply lend money. And the U.S. would be foolish to think that it alone can counter China in the region. – International Business Times

Max Primorac writes: Congress must take on the leadership role and reject IDB Invest’s multi-billion-dollar funding request. It should investigate how a development bank, established by the U.S. government and meant to raise Latin America out of poverty, has been transformed into an agent of influence on behalf of Chinese expansionism in our own backyard. – The Hill

Asia

The drones are adding to tensions between the two sides which have escalated in the past month to new highs. China, which claims self-governed Taiwan as its territory, has intensified the presence of its military in the Taiwan Strait, flying jets and sailing ships ever closer to the island, testing its defenses and raising the risk of conflict. – New York Times

The U.S. Army’s Pacific commander, General Charles Flynn, said he is in no rush to withdraw rocket launchers and other equipment from a Japanese army base at the edge of the East China Sea even after the joint training they were used in ended. – Reuters

Japan and the United States are working on arranging a summit between Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Joe Biden in New York around Sept. 20 to discuss security issues in East Asia, Kyodo news reported on Saturday. – Reuters

Seventeen Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which normally serves as an unofficial barrier between the two sides, on Saturday, Taiwan’s defence ministry said, as Beijing continues its military activities near the island. – Reuters

Lithuania is set to open its first representative office in Taiwan this week, setting the course for further tensions with Beijing, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday. – Bloomberg

John C. Hulsman writes: It is also worth remembering that democracy has less chance of bearing fruit in the absence of national security and regional stability and that consistent U.S. engagement can strengthen both. There is a magical middle intellectual ground here between over-involvement and under-involvement. Greater U.S. diplomatic and economic ties with Uzbekistan, and Central Asia as a whole, serve American interests in the challenging era we find ourselves in. – The Hill

Africa

Members of an Islamic State affiliate in Mali killed about 30 civilians in an attack this week on a town in a violence-plagued area bordering Burkina Faso and Niger, a coalition of pro-government militia said late on Friday. – Reuters

Rwanda may provide logistical support to help Benin tackle a worsening Islamist insurgency that is threatening parts of the West African region, a Benin government spokesperson said on Saturday. – Reuters

The Tigray forces battling Ethiopian troops say they’re willing to abide by an immediate cessation of hostilities and participate in a peace process led by the African Union, a significant shift to which the government has not yet responded. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

A lawmaker in Greece’s main opposition party filed a complaint with the top court’s prosecutor on Friday over what he said were repeated attempts to infect his mobile phone with the Predator malware, the latest incident in a phonetapping scandal. – Reuters

Hackers continue to abuse the endemic Log4j vulnerability months after its discovery, according to a new report from Cisco researchers who discovered a campaign targeting energy companies across the U.S., Canada, Japan and other countries. – The Record

At the government headquarters in NATO-member Montenegro, the computers are unplugged, the internet is switched off and the state’s main websites are down. The blackout comes amid a massive cyberattack against the small Balkan state which officials say bears the hallmark of pro-Russian hackers and its security services. – Associated Press

Long War

Twenty-one years after the Sept. 11 attacks, President Biden promised to never forget “the precious lives stolen from us” as he honored victims of the worst terrorist strike in American history with a somber wreath-laying ceremony under the pouring rain at the Pentagon. – New York Times

More than 20 years after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, President Biden has shifted the way America fights the war on terror by launching fewer drone strikes, embracing an over-the-horizon approach to killing terrorists in Afghanistan and leveraging alliances. – The Hill

David Von Drehle writes: Though the American public is tired of war, and the United States’ leaders prefer to act as if it is all over, American warriors must continue to fight because our enemies still have a vote. As another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes, we owe it to those warriors to remember them, to care for them, and to honor their sacrifices of body and soul. – Washington Post

Dovid Efune writes: They are nestled precariously in the remote mountains of the Hindu Kush. It is to our great shame that we have forgotten the lesson of 9/11 and abandoned wholesale the War on Terror. It is also to our own great peril. – New York Sun