Fdd's overnight brief

Syria

U.S. Marines conducted a live-fire aerial assault exercise in southern Syria on Friday designed to warn Russian and other military forces to stay away from an American base there. – Washington Post

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has approved the use of chlorine gas in an offensive against the country’s last major rebel stronghold, U.S. officials said, raising the prospects for another retaliatory U.S. military strike as thousands try to escape what could be a decisive battle in the seven-year-old war. – Wall Street Journal

Syrian and Russian warplanes launched dozens of airstrikes on Syria’s northern province of Idlib on Saturday, a monitoring group said, intensifying pressure on the country’s last rebel stronghold after crisis talks yielded no progress. – Washington Post

As a possible showdown approaches, the rebels have arrested and tortured people they accuse of conceding defeat, sowing fear in the local population. A doctor was recently pulled from his home at night, witnesses said. A pistachio peddler was arrested as masked men patrolled the street. – Washington Post

The three foreign powers negotiating an end to Syria’s conflict failed Friday to agree to a cease fire that would have halted a decisive but potentially devastating battle for the country’s last rebel stronghold. – Washington Post

Against the backdrop of potential chemical attacks by the Syrian regime in the province of Idlib, German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen is exploring how Germany can engage in military retaliatory actions against the army of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. – Business Insider

Russia’s military said on Sunday that two U.S. F-15 fighter jets dropped phosphorus bombs over Syria’s Deir al-Zor province on Saturday, the TASS and RIA news agencies reported, an allegation the United States denied. – Reuters

Clashes erupted on Saturday between U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters and Syrian troops in the centre of the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria that left at least 18 people killed, Kurdish forces said. – Reuters

America’s top general on Saturday said he was involved in “routine dialogue” with the White House about military options should Syria ignore U.S. warnings against using chemical weapons in an expected assault on the enclave of Idlib. – Reuters

Despite dire U.S. warnings and fears of a humanitarian disaster, the Trump administration has little leverage to stop Russia, Iran and Syria pressing ahead with a massive military assault against Syria’s northwest Idlib province. – Associated Press

Israel

The Trump administration is expected to announce Monday that it will close the Palestine Liberation Organization’s office in Washington, administration officials said Sunday night, widening a U.S. campaign of pressure amid stalled Middle East peace efforts. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered that $25 million earmarked for the care of Palestinians in East Jerusalem hospitals be directed elsewhere as part of a review of aid, a State Department official said on Saturday. – Reuters

A handshake on the White House lawn sealing the first of the landmark Oslo accords inspired hope that Israeli-Palestinian peace could finally be achieved, but 25 years later those dreams have faded. – Agence France-Presse

The Israeli army said Sunday that it shot and fatally wounded a Palestinian man who sought to damage the fence on the flashpoint Israel-Gaza border. – Agence France-Presse

Simon Henderson writes: Israeli missile defenses have been able to stave off major infrastructure damage in previous rounds, but they could be overwhelmed in future conflicts by more (or more-accurate) projectiles. […]From the U.S. perspective, an additional cause for celebration is that it combines American business and technology with Washington’s quiet diplomatic efforts to help regional partners work together. – Washington Institute

Egypt

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has authorized the release of $1.2 billion in U.S. military assistance to Egypt, despite human rights concerns that have held up previous funding. – Associated Press

An Egyptian court sentenced 75 people to death on Saturday including prominent Islamist leaders Essam al-Erian and Mohamed Beltagi over a 2013 sit-in which ended with security forces killing hundreds of protesters. – Reuters

The UN’s human rights chief, Michelle Bachelet, has asked Egypt to overturn mass death sentences handed down to members of the opposition, including senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood. – Al Jazeera

A New York City taxicab driver, a U.S. citizen, who was arrested in Egypt when he went to visit his wife and children has been sentenced to 15 years in prison in a case his lawyers call “bogus” and “a disgrace.” – ABC News

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisian and Western authorities have feared their return and the possible chaos that could follow. So far, those fears haven’t materialized, according to Tunisian authorities, Western diplomats and regional analysts. Instead, the Islamic State and al-Qaeda are recruiting a new generation of locals to stage terrorist attacks at home[…] – Washington Post

Armed groups vying for control of the Libyan capital have agreed to set up a mechanism to “consolidate” a recently agreed ceasefire, the United Nations’ Libya mission, UNSMIL, said on Sunday. – Reuters

Several armed men attacked the headquarters of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in the Libyan capital on Monday and several blasts could be heard, a Reuters witness said. – Reuters

Katherine Bauer writes: Prior to the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda’s primary source of funds was external donations funneled largely through charitable fronts. Yet as AQ and the Islamic State have established global networks of affiliates, their methods of financing have also diversified. Because these organizations now appear better resourced than ever before, some have called into question the value of counter-terrorist financing efforts. – ​Washington Institute

China

This stretch of ocean, dotted by thousands of islands and home to important shipping lanes and fisheries, is again in strategic calculations as China modernizes its military to project power far from its shores—threatening the dominance of the U.S. and its allies. – Wall Street Journal

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit another record monthly high in August as the world’s second-largest economy faced the threat of more tariffs from the Trump administration. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said Friday that tariffs on another $267 billion in Chinese goods are ready to go and could be rolled out on short notice, reinforcing earlier threats and signaling no end in sight for the growing trade dispute. – Wall Street Journal

The Turkic mostly Muslim Uighur minority in China’s Xinjiang region face arbitrary detentions, daily restrictions on religious practice and “forced political indoctrination” in a mass security crackdown, Human Rights Watch said on Monday. – Reuters

The Chinese government’s top diplomat defended Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative during a visit to Pakistan on Saturday, rejecting criticism the project has saddled Pakistan with expensive debt. – Reuters

China is participating for the first time in Australia’s largest maritime exercise as more than 3,000 personnel from 27 countries engage in joint training off the strategic northern port of Darwin. – Reuters

The Chinese government is inviting Wall Street’s top bankers to a hastily arranged meeting in Beijing as President Donald Trump threatens to impose punitive tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US. – Financial Times

Asia

United Nations human rights chief Michelle Bachelet called on Monday for a new quasi-judicial body to collect evidence with a view to future prosecution of crimes against Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar including murder and torture. – Reuters

Vietnam has placed orders for Russian weapons and military services worth more than $1 billion, Russia’s TASS news agency has reported, as the Southeast Asian country bolsters its defense capability. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged to champion free trade in his first policy speech since U.S. President Donald Trump renewed pressure on the country to sign a bilateral trade deal. – Bloomberg

Two human rights officials invited to attend the World Economic Forum on ASEAN this week in Hanoi were denied entry to Vietnam. – Bloomberg

U.S. President Donald Trump is to blame for surging consumer prices in the Philippines after he sparked a trade war with China, said Rodrigo Duterte, head of the Southeast Asian country where inflation has reached a nine-year high. – Bloomberg

Abigail Grace writes: Nearly a year after the roll-out of the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, it is time to shift away from discussing what FOIP is or isn’t, and instead focus on indicators to gauge success. Unfortunately for policymakers, expectations among the expert community and the region are high, and it will require concrete actions, rather than rhetoric, to interrupt China’s narrative of the inextricable U.S. decline and withdrawal from the Pacific theater. – Center for a New American Security

Europe

British anti-terrorism officers were helping to investigate a knife attack in a northern English town on Saturday in which one man was injured, although police said they were keeping an open mind. – Reuters

French police detained a man who wounded seven people in a knife attack in central Paris late on Sunday, police and judicial sources said on Monday, adding there was no initial indication the incident was linked to terrorism. – Reuters

Britain’s police chiefs have drawn up plans for possible civil disorder if the country leaves the European Union without a Brexit agreement, a newspaper report said Sunday. – Agence France-Presse

After nearly 13 years in office, the German chancellor may be under pressure at home but her international standing has rarely been higher. Just ask Recep Tayyip Erdogan: […]now he’s set to visit Berlin as he seeks allies in a dispute with the U.S. that’s helped crash the Turkish economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin answered an invitation to visit Merkel last month for their first bilateral meeting in Germany since 2013.  – Bloomberg

British and French defense ministers will meet twice a year rather than just once, reflecting a deepening of bilateral relations despite Britain’s impending exit from the European Union, said French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly. – Defense News

France has linked its search for independence from U.S. export rules with the Franco-German project for a future fighter jet, in a bid to boost foreign sales of the aircraft, the French armed forces minister said. – Defense News

Latin America

A high-level conference intended to highlight U.S. security cooperation with Mexico and Central America was abruptly called off Friday amid flaring diplomatic tensions with El Salvador and Guatemala, according to two Trump administration officials. – Washington Post

Venezuela and one of its allies accused the United States on Saturday of plotting against its president, Nicolás Maduro, who has presided over a near collapse of the country. – New York Times

The United States has recalled three chiefs of mission from Latin American nations that cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of recognizing China. The move comes as American officials have expressed growing unease over China’s rising influence in the region. – New York Times