Fdd's overnight brief

October 9, 2024

In The News

Israel

Israel has so far refused to divulge to the Biden administration details of its plans to retaliate against Tehran, U.S. officials say, even as the White House is urging its closest Middle East ally not to hit Iran’s oil facilities or nuclear sites amid fears of a widening regional war.  – Wall Street Journal

After Yahya Sinwar, the man responsible for launching the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, took full control of Hamas over the summer, Arab intelligence officials say he sent a directive to a senior operative: Now is the time to revive suicide bombings. – Wall Street Journal

A planned visit to Washington by Israel’s top defense official was abruptly canceled by the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, a sign of tensions between the two allies that casts doubt on whether the Biden administration can prevent Israel’s multifront conflict from exploding into wider war. – Washington Post

Israel announced a new division had joined its invasion of southern Lebanon on Tuesday, signaling that it could be ramping up operations as it pounded the Beirut strongholds of Hezbollah. Two Israeli officials confirmed that Israel had also struck near the Iranian Embassy in Syria’s capital. – New York Times

The Israeli military has said that its 36th, 98th, 91st, and 146th divisions have sent troops across the border into Lebanon, though it has not publicly disclosed how many soldiers are involved in the invasion or how many each division has contributed. – New York Times

U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to speak on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, talks set to include discussion of any plans to strike Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter. – Reuters

An Israeli airstrike targeted a residential building in the Mezzah suburb west of the Syrian capital Damascus, killing seven civilians and injuring 11 others, Syrian state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Leaders from the Islamist group Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah movement will hold further unity talks in Cairo on Wednesday, a Hamas official told Reuters. – Reuters

Draft Israeli legislation that would stop the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency working in the Gaza Strip and West Bank would be a “catastrophe” if enacted, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday, adding he raised his concerns with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Reuters

Israel sent tanks deeper into Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on Tuesday and advised people to leave as it pounded the historic Palestinian refugee camp from the air, residents said. Palestinian medics said casualties had been reported in Jabalia but they were unable to reach areas under fire. – Reuters

Israeli strikes killed at least 12 Palestinians, including nine members of the same family, in northern and central Gaza, the Palestinian Authority’s official news agency WAFA reported early on Wednesday. – Reuters

The IDF said on Tuesday that as the military continues its progress in destroying Hezbollah military assets near the Israel-Lebanon border, a detailed discussion needs to move forward with 60,000 evacuated Israeli northern residents about the practicalities of them returning to their homes. – Jerusalem Post

“Everyone said we were imagining it,” said Sara and Zion Arbiv, longtime residents of Moshav Zar’it, located near Israel’s northern border, after the IDF uncovered a Hezbollah-built tunnel that ran dangerously close to their community on Tuesday. “We’ve stopped being the country’s human shield,” they added. – Jerusalem Post

Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. Announced on Tuesday that it will be showcasing its latest defense capabilities at the defense AUSA exhibition October 14-16 in Washington D.C., including a new Lite Beam laser-based interception system integrated into the Trophy multitasking defense platform. – Jerusalem Post

In a submission to the International Criminal Court (ICC) made public on Monday, Israel castigated the court’s prosecutor, Karim Khan, for failing to give the country the opportunity to investigate his allegations before seeking arrest warrants against its leaders, a fundamental principle of the ICC’s founding charter. – Times of Israel

Some 16,000 students are still evacuated from northern Israel, and over 90 schools in the region have been damaged from rocket fire or military activity, according to Dr. Orna Simchon, head of the Education Ministry’s northern district. – Times of Israel

Several leading rabbis of the right-wing religious Zionist community, including the father of Heritage Minister Amichay Eliyahu, called on the government Tuesday to take any action necessary to free Israeli hostages held in Gaza — including striking “a responsible deal.” – Times of Israel

Bret Stephens writes: The war Israelis are fighting now — the one the news media often mislabels the “Gaza war” but is really between Israel and Iran — is fundamentally America’s war, too: a war against a shared enemy; an enemy that makes common cause with our totalitarian adversaries in Moscow and Beijing; an enemy that has been attacking us for 45 years. Americans should consider ourselves fortunate that Israel is bearing the brunt of the fighting; the least we can do is root for it. – New York Times

Douglas Schoen and Saul Mangel write: Ultimately, Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu are making it clear to Biden, Harris and the world, that sanctifying diplomacy at the expense of military pressure only makes peace harder to achieve. As the standard bearer of democracy, the U.S. must abandon single-minded diplomacy and fully support Israel’s use of overwhelming military force to achieve its goals of rolling back Iran and defeating Hezbollah and Hamas. – The Hill

Yair Lapid writes: The State of Israel was born after the Holocaust. Zionism is the most awe-inspiring event of the 20th century because it was the greatest victory of hope over despair. We didn’t sink into bloodshed, we didn’t waste our lives on revenge. We built, created, and developed something amazing. We didn’t just fight to survive, we also fought for the values we believe in. That’s what we must do now as well. The first step should be a new government. It will allow us to return to our roots, to be Zionist, liberal, patriotic, and democratic. Because that is our worldview, because those are our values, because that is the only way to win. – Jerusalem Post

Nimrod Koren writes: Considering the lack of success that the Biden administration has experienced in achieving its objectives during both conflicts, neither securing a victory for Ukraine nor negotiating a ceasefire for Israel (or preventing a multi-front war ), it may be an opportune moment to reconsider and possibly reassess the somewhat idealistic strategy that seeks a victory over Russia, a nation with an arsenal exceeding 5,000 nuclear missiles, as well as a reformed peaceful Middle East. A more pragmatic policy could focus on achieving more modest goals, such as alleviating human suffering. This would involve endorsing a compromise based on lessons learned, admitting that the prospect of victory in Ukraine may be less attainable at this stage, and supporting a victory in Israel where it could lead to a rapid resolution of the war. – Jerusalem Post

Joshua Yaphe writes: Netanyahu has said that we are witnessing a change in the strategic reality of the region. He is wrong. The structural conditions have not changed sufficiently to force these parties to change their calculus and reassess their behavior. He may not have to be right, however. All he needs is enough temporary change, no matter how transient, in order to declare “total victory,” box out his political rivals, and survive to fight another day. It is entirely possible that, on Inauguration Day, the administration in the White House will be faced with a situation in which the most expedient solution will simply be to grit our teeth, put on a smile, and shake hands with Bibi. The more things change, the more they stay the same. – The National Interest

Iran

Israel has shown Iran’s two most important deterrents against an attack—its ballistic missiles and allied militia Hezbollah—are less powerful than previously thought. Now attention is turning to whether Iran will accelerate its nuclear program to deter its biggest regional foe. – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region starting on Tuesday to discuss regional issues and work on stopping Israel’s “crimes” in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran’s state media reported. – Reuters

Tehran has told Gulf Arab states it would be “unacceptable” if they allowed use of their airspace or military bases against Iran and warned that any such move would draw a response, a senior Iranian official said. – Reuters

Iran is still exporting crude from its main Kharg Island terminal even after a flotilla of tankers fled nearby waters where they’d normally wait their turn to collect cargoes. Three tankers, two very large crude carriers and one Aframax, were seen moored at the jetties to the east and west of the island on Tuesday morning, satellite imagery from Sentinel Hub show. – Bloomberg

The United States and Arab states have launched covert talks with Iran for a comprehensive ceasefire aimed at calming all war fronts at once, according to an Israeli television report Tuesday. Channel 12 news reported that Israel is not currently involved in the initiative, but that senior Israeli officials have been informed about it. – Times of Israel

Russia & Ukraine

Russia suffered major digital outages for a second day Tuesday after hackers targeted Russia’s court information system, taking down court websites and claiming to have wiped court documents and decisions in the system’s database. – Washington Post

A week after Russia captured Vuhledar, a town that anchored Ukraine’s defenses in the country’s southeast, Moscow’s forces are continuing to advance in the area, pushing into or flanking several towns as they try to break through Ukrainian lines. – New York Times

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that its forces had taken control of two settlements in eastern Ukraine, the latest gains in their drive to secure the Donbas region. – Reuters

Russia’s air defence units destroyed 47 Ukrainian drones targeting its west, the defence ministry said on Wednesday, while regional officials said the attacks caused no casualties. – Reuters

Ukraine could be facing its toughest winter since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, as Moscow continues to attack the country’s critical energy infrastructure, new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Britain imposed sanctions on Tuesday on Russian troops it said were involved in using chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, accusing Moscow of “cruel and inhumane tactics”. – Reuters

Russian shelling in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region on Tuesday killed one person and injured five more, the regional governor said. The village of Antonivka came under attack, Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram. Four injured were hospitalized, he added. – Reuters

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s northeastern city of Kharkiv on Tuesday killed at least two civilians and injured more than 30 people, including a child, regional officials said. – Reuters

The European Union on Tuesday set up a system for imposing sanctions against people accused of cyberattacks, information manipulation or acts of sabotage on behalf of Russia to undermine EU support for Ukraine. – Associated Press

Alexander J. Motyl writes: The Ukrainians, like the Chechens before them, have withstood mighty Russia’s assault, bloodied it in the process, and may even win the war. Putin has transformed Russia into a weak state with a brittle regime; he is a decrepit leader with declining imagination and legitimacy. The non-Russians will effectively be forced to jump ship by Putinite Russia’s multiple failures — just as they did in the late ’80s and early ’90s, when a so-called “parade of sovereignty declarations” almost led to Russia’s break up. – The Hill

Julian Wieczorkiewicz and Joel Ramlill writes: Ukraine seeks a further seven Patriot systems in the coming months and these are starting to be delivered. NATO and partners should continue donating critical air defense assets to aid the defense of power plants. By acting proactively with NATO support, Ukraine can prevent civilian suffering, provide a lifeline to its economy, and sustain its war production, all of which are critical for its defense against Russia’s unprovoked aggression. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Jack Margolin writes: Russia’s rogue’s gallery of volunteer units, Combat Army Reserves, and private military companies nonetheless play to Russia’s relative strengths in manpower. They allow for recruitment efforts to reach and more effectively leverage those fighters with experience who are less likely to be drawn to conventional contract service. Whether units like Espanola that draw on football ultras or like Rusich that draw on fascist militant circles, these groups leverage Wagner symbols and personalities to proclaim their effectiveness, experience, and distinction from the worst tendencies of the Russian military, appealing to the type of disaffected but valuable recruit that once formed the backbone of the Wagner Group. – War on the Rocks

Mark N. Katz writes: Not releasing soldiers to work in the Russian economy will only serve in the long run to weaken the Russian economy, and hence weaken the Russian army which it supports. In short: while Ukrainians and Westerners rightly fear what Putin who believes himself to have been victorious against Ukraine and its Western supporters will do with his large, battle-tested army after the end of the Ukraine war, there could well emerge political, social, and economic pressures emerging that encourage or even compel Putin to reduce the size and capability of the Russian army afterward. – The National Interest

Hezbollah

Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets into northern Israel on Tuesday, hitting a suburb of Haifa, as Israel expanded its military offensive into Lebanon by adding more troops and signaling an impending maritime operation. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested in a video message released on Tuesday that Israel had not only killed the presumed successor of Hezbollah’s assassinated leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in airstrikes last week outside Beirut, but also the successor’s potential replacement. – New York Times

Hezbollah militants targeted Israeli soldiers near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh with artillery shells and rockets on Wednesday, the group said in a statement, a day after Israel said it had killed two successors to Hezbollah’s slain leader. – Reuters

Hezbollah officials are no longer demanding a truce in Gaza as a condition for reaching a ceasefire in Lebanon, rowing back from an oft-repeated promise to keep fighting until Israel halts its offensive against Hezbollah’s Iran-backed ally Hamas. – Reuters

Hezbollah’s call for a ceasefire on Tuesday shows the militant group is on the back foot and “getting battered,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told a regular briefing on Tuesday. – Reuters

The IDF’s Golani Brigade has taken operational control of a Hezbollah combat compound in Maroun El Ras, southern Lebanon, which posed a direct threat to northern Israeli communities, the IDF announced on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

David Heyd writes: Therefore, Walzer cannot argue on that basis that Israel was wrong in killing Hezbollah leaders in Beirut. From the point of view of the morality of war (jus in bello), it is perfectly legitimate for Israel to use technologies such as the pager attack and to target Hezbollah commanders. It does not mean, however, that Israel had no better alternatives in conducting this war and that it could and should have tried first to reach a deal with Gaza that perhaps could have led to a ceasefire on the Lebanese border. – Jerusalem Post

Turkey

Turkey has blocked access to instant messaging platform Discord following a court decision, the country’s infotech regulator said on Wednesday. Turkey’s Information Technologies and Communication Authority (BTK) published the access ban decision on its website. – Reuters

Turkey’s lawmakers held a closed-door session on Tuesday to discuss the spread of war in the Middle East, a week after President Tayyip Erdogan made an unsubstantiated claim that Israel eventually aimed to encroach on Turkish territory. – Reuters

Turkey’s exports to Palestinian territories leapt sixfold in the first nine months of the year to $571.2 million, data showed on Tuesday, five months after the country halted trade with Israel in protest over its war in Gaza. – Reuters

Soner Cagaptay writes: Yet this strategy would put the United States at risk of being left out of a potential northeastern deal between Ankara and Damascus. It could also alienate Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest military and is a key U.S. partner on numerous other fronts—against Iran in the Middle East, and in great power competition with Russia and China in Africa and other locales. As noted above, Moscow would quickly take advantage of a U.S.-Turkish impasse on these issues, perhaps to the point of supporting a joint Syrian-Turkish military expedition into the northeast. This would also meet Putin’s broader goal of fracturing NATO by pulling Turkey into his orbit. – Washington Institute

Lebanon

France and Qatar delivered urgent humanitarian aid to Lebanon on Tuesday, France’s foreign minister said, as Paris pushes for broader humanitarian efforts and a ceasefire in the country. – Reuters

U.N. officials voiced concern on Tuesday that the same methods of warfare used by Israel that caused high civilian casualties and widespread destruction in Gaza are now being repeated in Lebanon, calling for action to avoid the same “spiral of doom”. – Reuters

Israel’s bombardment of Hezbollah’s south Beirut stronghold has forced tens of thousands to flee to the city center, but many in sectarian Lebanon view the newcomers with suspicion, worried they too might become targets. – Agence France-Presse

David Schenker writes:  In the near term, however, the priority must be implementing 1701 and effectively mobilizing the LAF throughout Lebanon and especially the south. If Lebanon hopes to curtail Hezbollah dominance and become a true state, now is the time for courageous political elites—historically in limited supply in Lebanon—to step up. The alternative is that Israel will more actively and continuously target Iranian and Hezbollah assets and personnel in south Lebanon, as it has done in Syria since 2013. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman offered reassurances about the health of King Salman during a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, state media reported. – Reuters

Prominent U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham urged Saudi Arabia and Israel on Tuesday to establish diplomatic ties by the end of the year, warning that the next U.S. administration is unlikely to be able to secure enough votes to support the deal. – Reuters

Amir Tibon writes: The column also conveyed a sense of Saudi anger toward Israel, expressed as follows: “[I]t has been clear for too long that self-defense is not Israel’s primary goal in this war. Instead, it seems the objective is to eliminate the conditions for life with any modicum of dignity for decades to come.”On October 21, two weeks after last year’s Hamas attack, President Biden said that just prior to the attack, “Guess what? The Saudis wanted to recognize Israel.” He also said: “One of the reasons Hamas moved on Israel … they knew that I was about to sit down with the Saudis.”A year after the October 7 attack, it appears that, at least on the Saudi normalization issue, Hamas leader Sinwar has accomplished his objective. – Haaretz

Gulf States

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy will this week meet with leaders in Bahrain and Jordan as part of Western diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East. – Reuters

QatarEnergy has entered into a long-term naphtha supply agreement with Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab, supplying up to 18 million metric tons of naphtha to the London-listed company over 20 years from next April. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates’ cabinet has approved a balanced budget for the 2025 fiscal year with expenditures rising to 71.5 billion dirhams ($19.47 billion), state news agency WAM said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

Sohn Yang-Young was appointed governor of South Hamgyeong Province by South Korea’s president last year. The job came with a chauffeur-driven car, secretaries, a spacious office and a mahogany desk with a mother-of-pearl nameplate. But Mr. Sohn has never been to South Hamgyeong, because it is in North Korea. – New York Times

North Korea’s Army said it will completely cut off roads and railways connected to South Korea starting from Wednesday, and fortify the areas on its side of the border, state media KCNA reported. – Reuters

North Korea held a session of its Supreme People’s Assembly this week, state media KCNA said on Wednesday, although there was no mention on whether it had officially changed its stance on unification between the Koreas. – Reuters

North Korea is likely to deploy troops to the battlefields in Ukraine, according to South Korea’s defense chief, as Pyongyang ramps up its support for Russia while taking further measures to distance itself from any form of possible rapprochement with Seoul. – Bloomberg

China

Young people in China have jumped into stock trading in the past two weeks since Beijing took its most aggressive steps yet to revive economic growth and persuade consumers to start spending. – New York Times

Most Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to invade in the coming five years but do see Beijing as a serious threat to the democratic island, a poll by Taiwan’s top military think tank showed on Wednesday. – Reuters

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is escalating tensions with “sinister intentions”, China’s government said, ahead of a keynote speech Lai will give in Taipei that could set off a Chinese military response. – Reuters

The Philippines accused China’s coast guard on Tuesday of firing water cannon at government ships taking supplies to fishermen at a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, but Beijing said its “control measures” followed the boats’ intrusions in its waters. – Reuters

Two Chinese nationals who were killed in an explosion near Pakistan’s Karachi international airport on Sunday worked for a power plant, Pakistan’s finance minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Brussels rejected a proposal by the Chinese government for imported electric vehicles made in China to be sold at a minimum price of 30,000 euros ($32,946), three sources said, a move Beijing hoped would avert EU tariffs being imposed next month. – Reuters

Rahm Emanuel writes: The U.S. has started to turn the tables on China’s regional belligerence by exploiting the inherent weakness of its actions. By employing President Biden’s multilateral approach and adding new economic countermeasures, we can curtail China’s aggression. Most important, we can provide allies and friends in the developing world with the economic leadership necessary for these times. – Wall Street Journal

Robert Atkinson writes: This change means rejecting not only neo-liberal free-market globalization on the right but green, redistributionist progressivism on the left. Instead, we need to copy some core elements of the Chinese innovation model and embrace “national power capitalism:” the idea that states compete in a zero-sum game for techno-economic power. Like defense policy, it is goal-oriented. America needs globally dominant biopharma, chip, aerospace, and AI industries. And therefore, the government needs to do what it must to ensure that outcome. – The National Interest

South Asia

Kashmiris voted for an opposition alliance in the Indian-administered Himalayan region’s first local election in a decade, in a protest against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 decision to scrap its special autonomous status. – Wall Street Journal

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headed for a surprise election victory in Haryana state on Tuesday, reinforcing its popularity in the northern heartland a few months after stumbling in national elections. – Reuters

Southeast Asian leaders met in Laos on Wednesday for a summit expected to find ways of tackling a worsening civil war in Myanmar, with Thailand set to propose a new path for a political solution after a regional peace effort made scant progress. – Reuters

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will represent the United States at summits with Asian leaders in Laos this week and expects to discuss human rights in Myanmar, China’s “irresponsible” behavior in the South China Sea and Ukraine, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Pakistani police have charged the country’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan with attempted murder over the death of a policeman during violent protests last weekend by his supporters, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Andy Mukherjee writes: Of the two poll outcomes Tuesday, Haryana’s result is more important. A win there for the BJP suggests the ruling party has more room for maneuver than analysts believe. Perish the idea that this will embolden the government to pursue tough reforms. If anything, the prime minister may feel less pressure to give a better deal to farmers, soldiers, women or the youth. Nor does he need to cut the tax burden on the middle class to stay in power. With superior election management and some luck, Modi 3.0 might just muddle through to 2029. – Bloomberg

Asia

Marine fuel suppliers at Singapore, world’s largest bunker hub, will be required to provide digital bunkering services and issue electronic bunker delivery notes starting April 1, 2025, Amy Khor, Singapore’s senior minister of state for transport, said at the SIBCON 2024 conference. – Reuters

Japanese manufacturers turned more confident about business conditions in October, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Wednesday, but they remained wary about the pace of China’s economic recovery. – Reuters

Papua New Guinea authorities and the International Monetary Fund team have reached a staff-level agreement for access of about $265 million to improve resilience to climate change, the IMF said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters

Europe

The Kremlin’s spy services are on a “sustained mission to generate mayhem” on Europe’s streets, the head of the U.K. domestic spy agency warned Tuesday, saying that the number of investigations into state-orchestrated threats his agency is handling has jumped by nearly half in the past year. – Wall Street Journal

A no-confidence vote against the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier of France was handily defeated on Tuesday. But there is more drama to come, as the lack of a legislative majority causes deep political uncertainty. – New York Times

A television debate ahead of Moldova’s presidential election broke up on Tuesday when pro-European incumbent Maia Sandu did not attend and one of her two main rivals walked out of the studio. – Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday he understood U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to postpone his state visit to Germany due to the hurricane bearing down on the United States but expected it to be rescheduled. – Reuters

Norway has raised its terrorism threat assessment to the second-highest level due to an increased risk of attacks against Jewish and Israeli targets, the national police directorate said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Britain’s transport minister said the long-delayed HS2 railway will likely run all the way to central London, following speculation around the future of the multi-billion-pound project after it was scaled back last year. – Reuters

A son of Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden has been barred from returning to France, where he lived for years painting landscapes in a Normandy village, after allegedly posting comments on social media deemed to have glorified terrorism. – Reuters

Belarusian authorities said Tuesday that they have launched new criminal investigations against dozens of opposition activists, part of a sweeping crackdown on dissent ahead of next year’s presidential vote, in which the country’s authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko intends to seek a seventh term. – Associated Press

French anti-terror prosecutors announced the arrests Tuesday of three people in southwest France in a probe led by the country’s domestic intelligence agency into a suspected attack plot. – Associated Press

Portugal’s minority government said negotiations with the opposition Socialist Party about the 2025 budget have ended and that it expects the plan to pass in parliament. – Bloomberg

The European Space Agency’s Hera mission, to which defense firms Thales and Leonardo contributed technology through their joint venture Thales Alenia Space, took off from Cape Canaveral on Monday riding on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The mission will study the results of a NASA experiment that was humankind’s first attempt at deflecting an asteroid. – Defense News

Matthew Brooker writes: Or maybe not. A quick scan of Tfl’s internet domain showed an “uncomfortable” level of vulnerability, including old firewalls and a network device on the Oyster website with a misconfigured encryption setup, said Kubecka, who has lectured to Tfl employees in the past. With the caveat that nowhere is perfect, she described Tfl’s state of readiness as “poor.” Ransomware attacks on the British Library (which is still experiencing a major technology outage a year later) and a laboratory that processes blood tests for the National Health Service show how much more threatening such intrusions can be. Transport for London may just have received the wake-up call it needs. The canary isn’t dead yet; but it could do with some more oxygen. – Bloomberg

Africa

Kenya’s parliament voted on Tuesday to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on charges including enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred, the chamber’s speaker said, paving the way for the senate to consider the motion. – Reuters

Mozambicans will vote on Wednesday in an election that is almost certain to see the ruling party Frelimo maintain its half-century grip on power, despite a stiff challenge from a charismatic newcomer. – Reuters

Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said that its fighters had recovered the bodies of its mercenaries killed in a July battle with Tuareg rebels and Islamists during a desert sandstorm in Mali. – Reuters

Russia’s Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and prime minister of Burkina Faso, Apollinaire J. Kyelem de Tambela, discussed in Moscow expanding military ties, the Russian defence ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Local volunteers who have helped to feed Sudan’s most destitute during 17 months of war say attacks against them by the opposing sides are making it difficult to provide life-saving aid amid the world’s biggest hunger crisis. – Reuters

The United Nations is considering suspending relief operations, including food aid deliveries, in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, following deadly attacks on humanitarian workers, according to a draft proposal seen by Reuters and verified by two diplomats. – Reuters

The war in Sudan could cost countless more lives if immediate action is not taken, as famine and disease spread while fighting intensifies and aid workers struggle to gain access, a senior World Health Organization official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on the younger brother of the head of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, accusing him of leading the paramilitary group’s procurement of weapons and extending the country’s civil war. – Reuters

Prison conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo have deteriorated, with cases of torture and sexual violence being reported in detention centres run by the intelligence services, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Burkina Faso’s junta has suspended U.S.-funded broadcaster Voice of America for three months over comments about a jihadist insurgency in West Africa’s Sahel region, and temporarily banned local news outlets from using any international media reports, authorities said late on Monday. – Reuters

Cameroon has assured that its nonagenarian President is well, following his long absence from the central African country. “The President is in good health and will be back in the country any moment from now,” Rene Emmanuel Sadi, minister of communication and government spokesman. – Bloomberg

Cameron Hudson writes: As the global competition for influence mounts on this increasingly strategic continent, African leaders will be looking to see that their interests have been heard and are being acted upon. This will require the United States to not only tailor responses to meet their specific concerns, but also refrain from imposing its own domestic political fights on its partners. African leaders and Washington have both benefited from the bipartisan political consensus that has defined their relations for decades. But if this bipartisanship erodes further, the United States risks ceding even more influence to its competitors and further alienating a continent that already sees it as unreliable. Washington’s own ability to arrest and reverse this trend will do much to determine the strength of relations with the continent well past the incoming administration. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Americas

Brazil’s Supreme Court granted Elon Musk’s X permission to resume operations in the country, drawing to a close months of legal wrangling for the social-media platform in one of its most important markets. – Wall Street Journal

The European Union on Tuesday extended sanctions for another year against 21 Nicaraguan officials, including Rosario Murillo, vice president and wife of President Daniel Ortega, as well as three of their children. – Reuters

Brazil’s Senate on Tuesday approved President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s nominee to lead the central bank, Gabriel Galipolo, who emphasized to lawmakers that the leftist leader was emphatic and clear in guaranteeing him freedom in decision-making. – Reuters

Latin America

Argentina’s government announced it will implement some measures to streamline and simplify trade operations in the country. The measures are targeted at boosting Argentina’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, according to the deregulation and state transformation ministry. – Reuters

Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) on Tuesday requested an investigation into the 2022 election campaign of President Gustavo Petro over alleged violation of financing limits, it said in a statement. – Reuters

Two Indian state refiners have bought 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude from trading house Vitol for November delivery, trade sources said, as shipments to what previously was Venezuela’s second largest oil market continue to grow. – Reuters

Christopher Sabatini and Ryan C. Berg write: For now, the leader of the opposition, María Corina Machado, remains in Venezuela and has vowed to continue to fight. Now it is incumbent on Latin America, the United States, and those in the world who defend democracy and human rights to put in place a comprehensive, multilateral strategy of containment and vertical regime fracture—well before Maduro’s farce inauguration on January 10, 2025. For Maduro, it will be a challenge to maintain his grip on power, for another six years, against the will both of his own people and of a united international opposition – Foreign Affairs

North America

Mexico wants to reduce its dependence on imports from China and is asking some of the world’s biggest manufacturers and tech firms operating in the country to identify Chinese products and parts that could be made locally. – Wall Street Journal

This is what it looks like when war breaks out within one of the most powerful criminal mafias in the world, the Sinaloa Cartel, pitting two rival factions against each other in a bloody struggle to control a multibillion-dollar narco empire. – New York Times

Haiti’s armed gangs are increasingly recruiting children into their ranks, a report by Human Rights Watch warned on Wednesday, as near-famine conditions push boys to pick up guns while girls are sexually abused and forced into domestic work. – Reuters

Mexico’s new government on Tuesday presented its plan to combat violence and crime, vowing to strengthen the National Guard police force and boost intelligence gathering in a bid to reduce murders, kidnappings and extortion. – Reuters

Four mayors in Mexico have asked federal authorities for protection after a colleague was beheaded last week in the southern state of Guerrero, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Eduardo Porter writes: The United States can no longer remain indifferent to Mexico’s pressing need to stop the violence. Washington must understand that for Mexico to help address priorities such as fentanyl, the drug trade and human smuggling, it must first restore the state’s control over the country and build a functioning criminal justice system. The immediate challenge is to restore the broken bilateral security relationship — a victim of decades of failure — restore trust and construct a joint strategy to address the priorities of both nations. – Washington Post

United States

U.S. antitrust enforcers haven’t broken up a company in 40 years. Several high-stakes cases, including two involving Google, could determine whether that dormant period comes to an end. The Justice Department submitted a filing Tuesday that presented a federal court with a range of potential options. – Wall Street Journal

A former aide to Eric Adams destroyed evidence and pushed witnesses to lie to law enforcement officers investigating an alleged illegal political donation scheme involving the New York City mayor’s campaign, federal prosecutors said Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal

The FBI has arrested an Afghan man who officials said was inspired by Islamic State to plan an Election Day attack on large crowds in the U.S. Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27 years old, of Oklahoma City, had been taking steps to carry out the terrorist attack, buying rifles, selling his home and working to resettle his family in Afghanistan, the Justice Department said. – Wall Street Journal

Hurricane Milton is on a projected path that would inflict a direct strike on Florida’s Tampa Bay, a densely populated and fast-growing area that is one of the most vulnerable in the U.S. to coastal flooding. The region hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane since 1921 and has dodged numerous storms over the years that had initially appeared headed for it. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration finalized a landmark rule on Tuesday that would require water utilities to replace virtually every lead pipe in the country within 10 years, tackling a major threat that is particularly dangerous to infants and children. – Reuters

Jillian Lederman writes: The ACLU claims to defend those with “controversial views,” but at Brown last year it was much more controversial to walk to class with an Israeli flag than to shriek “Intifada!” in the middle of campus. As in the days of the Klan, those who wear masks seek not to express their views but to dominate others. Members of the mob outside Mr. Landsman’s house have joined America’s long history of people who hide their faces in the name of bigotry and intimidation. – Wall Street Journal

Joseph Bosco writes: The Biden administration’s calls for restraint are not based on theological or philosophical views of proportionality and just war theory, but on very pragmatic concerns about escalation and a wider regional war. The president fears the potential to drag the U.S. into conflict with Russia, which has supported Iran and its terrorist proxies. On Ukraine, President Biden has more than once expressed fear that greater U.S. involvement could trigger World War III. – The Hill

David Swerdlick writes: And Harris doesn’t need to throw Trump to the proverbial mat. Another solid debate would bolster the impression that she — running in her first, truncated general election — can go toe-to-toe with a former president running in his third election. Plus, there’s a narrow slice of voters who would probably give her credit for going on an unfriendly network. Harris might prevail in November without another debate, and she might lose if there is one. But if it makes sense to debate on another network, it also makes sense to go on Fox News. – New York Times

Jeffrey A. Friedman and Andrew Payne write: Ultimately, concerns about domestic issues such as inflation and immigration will almost certainly remain at the top of voters’ minds in November. Yet in an election that will likely be decided by a small number of ballots cast in a few crucial swing states, Democrats and Republicans will need to scrape and claw for every vote they can get. Conventional wisdom that elections are just about “the economy, stupid” ignores the way that foreign policy can shape presidential elections, the influence that elections can therefore exert on international affairs, and the ways in which those dynamics have already shaped the 2024 campaign. – Foreign Affairs

Cybersecurity

More than six years after it took effect, Europe’s mighty data-protection rulebook is getting its second wind — by stymieing the artificial intelligence plans of Big Tech giants. In just a few months, Google, Meta, X and LinkedIn have paused or delayed AI projects in the European Union, blaming an old yet familiar foe: Brussels red tape. – Politico

An unauthorized party stole encrypted internal data related to employee user accounts from home and small business security provider ADT, the company said Monday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. – Cyberscoop

Hackers stole sensitive employee data from a software-as-a-service company that advises consumers on trade credit and provides supply chain risk monitoring, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. – Cyberscoop

Researchers have uncovered previously undocumented tools used by a state sponsored hacker group against government and diplomatic entities in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia. – The Record

The European Union issued a condemnation of Russia on Tuesday over the Kremlin’s “intensifying campaign of hybrid activities” targeting the bloc and its partners. – The Record

Bill Echikson and Oona Lagercrantz write: How Virkkunen will interpret the term “tech sovereignty” remains to be seen. Look for some initial answers at upcoming parliamentary confirmation hearings, according to leaked questions. Bar a surprising Parliament veto of her nomination, Henna Virkkunen will shape EU policy over a five-year period that looks critical in determining Europe’s future. Europe must reinvigorate it struggling tech sector, in the face of intense competition from the US and China. If anyone is up to the task, perhaps it is a marathon runner. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Defense

A U.S. Marine whose adoption of an Afghan war orphan has spurred a yearslong legal battle and raised alarms at the highest levels of government will remain on active duty. – Associated Press

The Air Force announced seven potential landing spots on Oct. 3 for its newest refueling tanker’s main hub, and the service hopes to finalize a home base for the KC-46A Pegasus by 2027. – Defense News

The Army’s 18th Airborne Corps is for the first time using a battlefield capability to map road closures, cellular outages, supply needs and other data in real time to help the Federal Emergency Management Agency and U.S. Northern Command help people whose homes and communities were battered by Hurricane Helene late last month. – Defense News