Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Displaced residents of this farming community gathered before the sun rose Tuesday to honor relatives killed two years ago here in the Hamas-led attacks, to reflect on what has since become of Israel, to commemorate a terrible day in rituals marred by the irrepressible sounds of war. Sirens, at one point, warned of another attack — at least one of them a false alarm. – Washington Post

Hamas said on Wednesday it had exchanged a list of the names of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be released under a swap deal and that it was optimistic about talks in Egypt on U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza. – Reuters

Hamas said on Tuesday it was ready to reach a deal to end the war in Gaza based on President Donald Trump’s plan but still has demands, as Qatar’s prime minister and senior U.S. mediators headed to Egypt to join indirect negotiations between the Palestinian militant group and Israel. – Reuters

Two years after the Gaza conflict erupted, President Donald Trump on Tuesday pledged U.S. support for Gaza security guarantees and said he believes a deal is close to being completed for the remaining hostages. – Reuters

Nearly two years after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks in Israel and the country’s ensuing invasion of the Gaza Strip, Americans are more divided on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than they were before the war – and concerns are mounting about the safety of Jewish communities at home. – Associated Press

Israeli defense companies have been barred from next month’s Dubai Airshow after a “technical review,” its organizer said Tuesday, without providing further details. – Agence France Presse

Three active Israel Defense Forces reservists were wounded, two seriously and one moderately, by a grenade that exploded in an apparent accident in the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday, the military said. – Times of Israel

Emotions ran high in Tel Aviv on Tuesday night as Israel marked two years since Hamas’s devastating October 7, 2023, onslaught on southern Israel. Some 30,000 people filled Yarkon Park for what became the nation’s largest memorial ceremony for the deadliest day in Israeli history. – Times of Israel 

Mike Gallagher writes: On Oct. 7, that solidarity became clear as Israeli citizens of all political persuasions poured money, time and effort into defense, medical care and education. Business leaders traded boardrooms for farm fields to replace missing workers. Jews, Muslims, Christians and Druze rallied together. That solidarity carried Israelis through the war’s early days and beyond, as Israel has scored blows against the Iran-led terror axis that many observers dismissed as impossible. – Wall Street Journal

Hen Mazzing writes: Using opposition to Israel’s government as a cover for attacks on Jews and Israelis abroad is reprehensible. Boycotts and delegitimization campaigns, including BDS, while nonviolent, punish ordinary people for government actions and obscure the reality of a functioning democracy where Jews, Arabs and Christians coexist and a two-state solution remains achievable. Framing these campaigns as legitimate outrage does more to perpetrate false narratives and fuel antisemitism than it does to promote humanity and bring about solutions. – Washington Examiner

Darrell Issa writes: Two years later — and with the support of its strongest friends and a resolute Trump administration — Israel has rallied and rebuilt, answered anguish with action, and turned the tide against terror. President Donald Trump has also remarkably coalesced the region behind his agenda of peace through strength. It is a signature achievement. I believe this is the hinge of history turning. Our resolve for Israel is stronger than ever. It has to be. We must defend Israel’s very right to exist and live in peace and security with its neighbors. Israel will always have my support. – Washington Reporter

Magnus Ranstorp writes: Although barred from formal politics, Hamas is probing shared-rule deals with the PA. It is unlikely to retake Gaza as a ruler; far likelier is a hybrid formation—a religious-political brand without office paired with an underground militia—anchored in social networks and sustained by external patrons, with enough leverage to remain a veto player. This trajectory aligns with Sheikh Ahmed Yassin’s founding vision of steadfast resistance anchored in Islamic social mobilization, and it signals no ideological shift. Hamas remains committed to its ultimate goal of ‘resistance’ culminating in the full liberation of Palestine.  – Combating Terrorism Center at Westpoint

Russia and Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russian forces had captured almost 5,000 square km (1,930 square miles) of land in Ukraine in 2025 and that Moscow retained complete strategic initiative on the battlefield. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia on Tuesday of using oil tankers for intelligence gathering and sabotage operations. – Reuters

The Russian-controlled part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region was left largely without electricity for a time on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone strike, Russian-installed governor Yevgeny Balitsky said. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Tuesday promised that Russia would formulate an appropriate response to reported plans by the European Union to restrict the movement of Moscow’s diplomats within the bloc. – Reuters

Russia said on Tuesday it was waiting for clarity from the United States about the possible supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, saying such weapons could theoretically carry nuclear warheads. – Reuters

Russia’s state nuclear energy company said on Tuesday that a Ukrainian drone had tried to strike a nuclear plant in Russia’s Voronezh region, which borders Ukraine. – Reuters

Russia, which recently announced progress in talks with Beijing about a new pipeline, will need at least a decade to significantly increase natural gas exports to China as a result of that deal, industry sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Three people were killed and one injured by Ukrainian shelling in Russia’s Belgorod region, the local governor said on Wednesday. – Reuters

From a bunker in eastern Ukraine, the 33-year-old soldier asks her comrade to fly a reconnaissance drone over her childhood home, hoping for a final glimpse before it becomes just another city pulverized by years of fighting. – Associated Press

Robert F. Worth writes: This is a place where Russia routinely bombards civilian homes. Anyone in Ukraine can hear (or read) the Russian state media that portray Ukrainians as rats, hyenas, and filth, and that has had an effect […]The hatred is a reminder that, for Ukrainians, this war is elemental. Scarcely anyone I met seemed to have any doubt that their way of life would be destroyed by a Russian victory, which would in all likelihood result in their killing or imprisonment. – The Atlantic

David Kirichenko writes: Unable to defend everywhere, Ukraine has also gone on the offensive against the source of the threat. Summer attacks on Shahed production and storage sites paid off. According to the Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi, launches in August fell by a third, down to 4,132 from 6,303 a month earlier. Russia’s peak swarms, once 700 strong, shrank to around 100–120, and on some days, only a few dozen. – Center for European Policy Analysis

George Janjalia writes: By keeping actions legal and transparent, NATO members deny Russia an escalation narrative while still imposing real costs on its shadow campaigns. Europe faces a contest of nerves and law. Once backed by legal authority and standardized procedures, the five measures are immediate, defensible, and reversible if Russia ends its campaign. Used together, they can raise costs today and build lasting deterrence tomorrow. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

The Trump administration’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, was expected to head to Egypt to join talks to end the Gaza war as the White House signaled optimism about the prospect of a deal. – New York Times 

Rising Nile waters inundated homes and fields in northern Egypt over the weekend, forcing residents to move by boat and intensifying a war of words between Cairo and Addis Ababa over whether Ethiopia’s giant Nile dam has worsened seasonal floods. – Reuters

Syrian Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and the commander of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), General Mazloum Abdi, agreed on Tuesday to a comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts in northern and northeastern Syria. – Reuters

A Tunisian court released a man on Tuesday who had been sentenced to death just last week for Facebook posts criticising the president, following a wave of public criticism and human rights concerns over the case. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia is making “uneven” progress on its most ambitious infrastructure projects due to challenges including engineering constraints, a shortfall in private investment and lower oil prices, according to Moody’s Investors Service. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Saudi Arabia is an important U.S. ally on a host of issues, from securing a peace deal in Gaza to finding a way to end Sudan’s grisly civil war. That’s why President Joe Biden promised to treat the Saudis as a “pariah” state only to give a fist bump to MBS when he needed the crown prince’s help bringing down oil prices. But doing business with a dictatorial regime does not mean overlooking or helping sanitize its abuses. Executing dissidents is no laughing matter. – Washington Post

Noam Raydan and Soner Cagaptay write: Successive U.S. administrations have played a key part in urging Baghdad and Erbil to engage in constructive dialogue on resolving a crisis that has lasted over two years now, and on addressing other issues such as salary transfers from the federal government to the Kurdistan Region. Sustaining this momentum is essential, particularly if Washington wants to support a stable environment for U.S. companies who are already invested there and who aim to expand their projects throughout the country. – Washington Institute

China

China’s censors are moving to stamp out more than just political dissent online. Now, they are targeting the public mood itself — punishing bloggers and influencers whose weary posts are resonating widely in a country where optimism is fraying. – New York Times 

Rescuers guided all of the remaining trekkers near the east face of Everest in Tibet to safety on Tuesday, including hundreds of local guides and yak herders, authorities said, ending one of the largest search-and-rescue operations in the region. – Reuters

U.S. lawmakers are calling for broader bans on chipmaking equipment to China after a bipartisan investigation found that Chinese chipmakers had purchased $38 billion of sophisticated gear last year. – Reuters

The U.S. is one week away from imposing port fees on certain vessels with links to China, a move expected to cost the top 10 carriers $3.2 billion next year as President Donald Trump seeks to address China’s growing dominance on the high seas. – Reuters

Asia

Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have sparked an urgent effort in Taipei and Washington to address a critical vulnerability on the island: It is almost entirely dependent on imported fuel. – Wall Street Journal

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he had raised the recent deadly outage of Singtel-owned Optus’s emergency call number with his Singaporean counterpart, Lawrence Wong, in a bilateral meeting held in Canberra on Wednesday. – Reuters

Taiwan’s presidential office said on Wednesday it had appointed for the second year running a former economy minister as its envoy to this year’s APEC summit in South Korea, one of the few international forums both Taiwan and China take part in. – Reuters

Bangladesh has approved the purchase of about 220,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat under a government-to-government deal aimed at easing trade tensions with Washington after import tariffs were imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. – Reuters

The nominee to be the Pentagon’s senior official for the Indo-Pacific region said on Tuesday he strongly supported President Donald Trump in saying that Taiwan should spend up to 10% of its GDP on defense. – Reuters

Japan’s likely next premier Sanae Takaichi is already facing criticism from her ruling party’s long-time coalition partner, a rift that could delay or, in an extreme scenario, jeopardise her premiership. – Reuters

Australia and Singapore are in discussions to boost bilateral defense ties, including enhanced reciprocal access to naval and air bases, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said on Wednesday. – Bloomberg

At least 24 people were killed and 47 others wounded while protesting Myanmar’s military government after a motorised paraglider dropped two bombs on the crowd, a spokesperson for the government-in-exile has told BBC Burmese. – BBC 

Japan’s largest minelayer practiced defending a chain of strategic islands near Taiwan last week in what Tokyo described as a demonstration of “determination not to allow unilateral changes to the status quo by force.” – USNI News

Jeffrey Michaels and Michael John Williams write: The next step is translating these insights into policy. This means wargaming not just military scenarios but political ones. It means understanding Beijing’s conceptions of what a war over Taiwan looks like and the content of Chinese war planning. It means testing assumptions about alliance cohesion and domestic resolve. It means preparing for the many types of wars China is developing options to wage, not just the one we’re comfortable planning against. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Taiwan’s future, regional stability, and the U.S.-led rules-based order in Asia all hang in the balance. We can’t afford to misunderstand Beijing’s thinking. The Syracuse exercise offers a start — thinking like the adversary to avoid becoming its victim. – War on the Rocks

Africa

Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina said he planned to hold a “national dialogue” with various groups on Wednesday after youth protesters issued a 48-hour ultimatum for him to agree to their demands or face a national strike. – Reuters

Comedians in Congo are mining their country’s chronic instability for laughs, entertaining people displaced by the war with the M23 rebels with their dark humour. – Reuters

Tanzania’s police force said it was investigating reports that a former ambassador turned government critic had been kidnapped after his family said he was forcefully taken from his house. – Reuters

More than 200 health facilities in war-hit eastern Congo have run out of medicines due to widespread looting and supply chain disruptions during fighting this year, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Wednesday. – Reuters

An international ceasefire monitor says parties to South Sudan ‘s faltering peace agreement have recruited new fighters and abducted children to participate in a conflict that observers have warned could widen again into civil war. – Associated Press

Cameroon’s 92-year-old President Paul Biya appeared Tuesday at his first campaign rally for the upcoming election in which the world’s oldest head of state is seeking his eighth term. – Associated Press

R. Maxwell Bone writes: Returning Biya to power merely delays the succession question and exacerbates the infighting that has already halted state functions and unearthed decades of grievances. A unified opposition or a dignified exit could have produced a very different result. Instead, Biya is now poised to die in office, with a deeply uncertain succession crisis looming at a time when tensions in the country are at their most inflamed in decades. The circumstances are now perfectly aligned for the succession to be immensely destabilizing with wide-ranging impacts, a situation that was tragically avoidable. – Foreign Policy

North America

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada arrived at the White House on Tuesday with  a few clear objectives: to take heat out of his early encounters with President Trump, to avoid references to Canada becoming a 51st state, and to begin talks on steel and aluminum tariffs. – New York Times

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday promised to treat Canada fairly in talks over painful U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, but was less committed about a continental trade deal that also includes Mexico. – Reuters

Mexican officials vowed to push back against new tariffs the Trump administration is planning on heavy trucks, yet another hurdle the US is throwing in front of its southern neighbor ahead of next year’s review of their trade deal. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

British police said on Tuesday that they had arrested two people on suspicion of computer misuse and blackmail following a cyberattack on a London childcare company in which data on more than 8,000 children was stolen. – Reuters

Qilin, a ransomware group with a track record of cyberattacks on major entities around the world, claimed responsibility on Tuesday for a hack on Japan’s Asahi Group Holdings that disrupted production at the beer and beverage giant. – Reuters

OpenAI said on Tuesday it has banned several ChatGPT accounts with suspected links to the Chinese government entities after the users asked for proposals to monitor social media conversations. – Reuters

Deloitte Australia will partially refund the 440,000 Australian dollars ($290,000) paid by the Australian government for a report that was littered with apparent AI-generated errors, including a fabricated quote from a federal court judgment and references to nonexistent academic research papers. – Associated Press

Nigel Farage was alarmed and appalled after a TikTok influencer threatened to kill the Reform UK party leader and marry his sister, he said at the London trial of a man over the death threats. – Bloomberg

As the United States experiences its latest government shutdown, most of the daily operations of the federal government have ground to a halt. This includes much of the day-to-day work done by federal information technology and cybersecurity employees, including those at the nation’s leading civilian cybersecurity agency, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. – Defense One 

Russia is taking steps to temporarily block mobile internet for foreign SIM cards — its latest move to tighten control over communications under the guise of national security and anti-drone measures. – The Record

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) announced on Tuesday it will begin the phased restart of its manufacturing operations following a cyberattack that completely halted global production last month. – The Record

Instant messaging giant Discord warned its users that a recent cyberattack on a third-party customer service provider exposed the sensitive information of an unstated number of customers. – The Record

Microsoft Threat Intelligence said a cybercriminal group it tracks as Storm-1175 has exploited a maximum-severity vulnerability in GoAnywhere MFT to initiate multi-stage attacks including ransomware. Researchers observed the malicious activity Sept. 11, Microsoft said in a blog post Monday. – Cyberscoop