Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

European leaders face a question they had hoped to avoid: If the U.S. steps back from leading Western support for Ukraine, could they fill the gap? – Wall Street Journal

As the squad of Ukrainian soldiers crept along the tree line toward the Russian bunker, artillery fire sent their enemies scrambling for cover. This was the chance they had been waiting for. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s parliament and its speaker taunted billionaire Elon Musk on Monday after he posted a meme on his social media platform mocking President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s pleas for wartime assistance from the West. – Reuters

Drunk recruits. Insubordinate soldiers. Convicts. They’re among hundreds of military and civilian offenders who’ve been pressed into Russian penal units known as “Storm-Z” squads and sent to the frontlines in Ukraine this year, according to 13 people with knowledge of the matter, including five fighters in the units. – Reuters

A last-ditch weekend spending agreement avoided a U.S. government shutdown but left pro-Ukraine officials in Washington scrambling on Monday to determine the best path forward for securing approval for billions more assistance for Kyiv. – Reuters

A senior Ukrainian official called on Monday for a reassessment of Western anti-aircraft systems being supplied to Ukraine, saying simpler and cheaper weapons could be more cost-efficient in countering Russia’s Iranian-made Shahed drones. – Reuters

Ukraine fired cluster munitions at a Russian village near the Ukrainian border on Tuesday, damaging several houses, the governor of Russia’s Bryansk region said. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a speech released on Sunday that nothing would weaken his country’s fight against Russia, a day after the U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill that omitted aid to Ukraine. – Reuters

Ukraine’s eastern metropolis of Kharkiv will build the country’s first fully underground school to shield pupils from Russia’s frequent bomb and missile attacks, the city’s mayor said. – Reuters

Ukraine destroyed 29 of 31 drones launched by Russia and one cruise missile, its air force said on Tuesday, most of them targeting the regions of Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk. The waves of overnight attacks lasted more than three hours, the southern command of Ukraine’s forces had said earlier. – Reuters

Biden administration officials are far more worried about corruption in Ukraine than they publicly admit, a confidential U.S. strategy document obtained by POLITICO suggests. – Politico

The West’s united front on Ukraine is showing more cracks than ever — and Kyiv has little choice but to grin and bear it. – Politico

World War III has, apparently, been averted. Despite the high-decibel squawks emanating from the Kremlin, at London Prime Minister Sunak has backtracked on remarks made by his new defense minister, Grant Shapps, to the effect that British troops could carry out training missions in Ukraine. – New York Sun

A Russian pilot on vacation with his family in the United Arab Emirates, went to the U.S. Embassy because he did not want to take part in Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been reported. – Newsweek

Ben Wallace, a former British defense secretary, said the Russian army is “cracking” under Kyiv’s offensive amid “the beginnings” of the battle for Crimea, but he suggested Ukraine must ramp up mobilization to match Vladimir Putin’s draft. – Newsweek

Editorial: Efforts also need to be redoubled to enable Ukraine to become more economically self-reliant. War risk insurance to cover losses for domestic and foreign investors would help to create confidence to invest in urgent rebuilding projects and in boosting Ukraine’s defence production capacity. So would providing more air defence systems to cities beyond Kyiv — which could also potentially encourage more refugees to return from abroad. Supplying Ukraine with more anti-ship missiles would help it secure vital Black Sea export routes for its grain and steel. – Financial Times 

Paul Krugman writes: The answer is, unfortunately, obvious. Whatever Republican hard-liners may say, they want Putin to win. They view the Putin regime’s cruelty and repression as admirable features that America should emulate. They support a wannabe dictator at home and are sympathetic to actual dictators abroad. So pay no attention to all those complaints about how much we’re spending in Ukraine. They aren’t justified by the actual cost of aid, and the people claiming to be worried about the cost don’t really care about the money. What they are, basically, is enemies of democracy, both abroad and at home. – New York Times

Samuel Charap and Kaspar Pucek write: Regardless, a proper understanding of the threat Russia poses must begin with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But at the moment, his military cannot even fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the constraints that should bound the debate about the extent of the threat. – Foreign Affairs

Afghanistan

The Biden administration’s focus on projecting stability in Afghanistan amid the Taliban’s lightning takeover harmed efforts by the U.S. Embassy in Kabul to prepare for and carry out evacuation operations in August 2021, according to an information brief provided by the State Department’s Office of Inspector General (OIG). – The Hill

Members of the Biden administration, aiming to wash their hands of the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, are attempting to portray the Taliban as a terror-fighting group. – New York Sun

Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, and Aaron Y. Zelin write: Notably, Tajik nationals have been involved in many of ISKP’s external attacks and other operations in Germany, Iran, and Turkey. This situation is similar to the jihadist movement in Tunisia prior to that country’s 2011 revolution—a movement that involved very little local activity but major mobilization to jihadist warzones in the Middle East and logistical cells in Europe. This should serve as a warning to Tajikistan, especially if its political circumstances change in the future. – Washington Institute

China

Chinese — from young people to entrepreneurs — are voting with their feet to escape political oppression, bleak economic prospects and often grueling work cultures. Increasingly, the exodus includes tech professionals and other well-educated middle-class Chinese. – New York Times

The Chinese military released an animated short film on National Day showing pieces of a scroll painting torn in two more than 300 years ago being reunited, in a show of the mainland’s determination to bring self-ruled Taiwan into the fold. – Reuters

China, which aims to become a major space power by 2030, has opened up a key lunar mission to international cooperation as mission deadlines loom for setting up a permanent habitat on the south pole of the moon. – Reuters

A group of U.S. senators, including Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, plans to visit China next week and hopes to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a spokesperson for Republican Senator Mike Crapo confirmed on Monday. – Reuters

China hopes the United States will “do more things” conducive to Sino-U.S. dialogue, the foreign ministry said on Monday, days after Washington angered Beijing with accusations of information manipulation. – Reuters

The head of the IMF has backed reforms that could eventually give Beijing more voting power within the fund, warning of “devastation” if the institution remains without adequate financial resources to aid struggling countries. – Financial Times

The mystery surrounding the dismissal of Qin Gang, China’s former foreign minister, has only grown murkier as new details emerged about an alleged extramarital affair with state media journalist Fu Xiaotian. – Newsweek

China’s state media on Monday published interviews with anti-war American commentators who predicted declining public support for Ukraine as the U.S. Congress heaved a sigh of relief following a last-minute spending compromise to avoid a government shutdown. – Newsweek

Andrew Weaver writes: If history is any guide, Chinese intelligence will likely conduct espionage under the auspices of the GCI. Additionally, GCI illuminates the future direction of the party’s influence operations deployed in the name of “intercivilizational collaboration.” Described by scholars as “authoritarian learning,” this emboldening of autocratic elites in developing countries is likely to increase now that it has been enshrined as a core tenet of one of Xi’s global initiatives. – The National interest

Asia

The last bus carrying ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh left the region Monday, completing a grueling weeklong exodus of over 100,000 people — more than 80% of its residents — after Azerbaijan reclaimed the area in a lightning military operation. – Associated Press

Armenia urged the European Union on Monday to sanction Azerbaijan for its military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and warned that Baku could soon attack Armenia itself unless the West takes firm action. – Reuters

Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Monday inaugurated a $7.3 billion high-speed railway connecting the country’s capital with the city of Bandung, a China-backed project that has been marred with problems. – Reuters

Taiwan prosecutors said on Monday they are investigating accusations that people tried to interfere in the island’s submarine program and that details about it were leaked, in what would be a serious breach of security. – Reuters

President Ferdinand Marcos has suffered a “significant” drop in his approval rating as soaring consumer prices in the Philippines undermines his support, a polling organisation said on Monday. – Reuters

Forces from Manila, Britain, Canada, Japan and the United States kicked off on Monday two weeks of joint naval exercises in Philippine waters as a “show of force”, amid flaring regional tension. – Reuters

A court in Cambodia on Monday barred three environmental activists who are serving suspended prison sentences for their advocacy work from traveling to Sweden next month to receive the prestigious Right Livelihood Award. – Associated Press

Early voting began on Monday in New Zealand for the nation’s Oct. 14 general election, with conservative contender Christopher Luxon casting his ballot. – Associated Press

Alexander Gabuev writes: One thing is clear: Russia’s role as a provider of security in its near-abroad has been severely diminished as a result of its disastrous war against Ukraine. The destabilising effects will continue to be felt across the vast Eurasian landmass. – Financial Times

Iulia Sabina-Joja writes: Sometimes, regional conflicts have global importance. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is one such case. If we want to push back against Iranian and Russian influence, opportunity is knocking at the door. – The Hill

Africa

A former Nigerian oil minister appeared in court in London on Monday charged with receiving bribes in the form of cash, luxury goods, flights on private jets and the use of high-end properties in Britain in return for awarding oil contracts. – Reuters

Niger has accepted an Algerian offer to mediate in its political crisis, Algeria’s foreign ministry said on Monday, five weeks after the North African country proposed a six-month transition process led by a civilian. – Reuters

A Congolese colonel has been found guilty of murder and other crimes related to the August killing of 56 people during an army crackdown on anti-U.N. demonstrations in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a local court said on Monday. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning gynaecologist Denis Mukwege, renowned for helping rape victims, said on Monday that he would run for president in December. – Reuters

Fifty one men and eight women were elected to Eswatini’s parliament in last week’s election, with a strong showing for pro-royalist candidates in results expected to make little difference to the politics of Africa’s last absolute monarchy. – Reuters

Nigeria’s leader increased the wages of some government workers in last-minute efforts to appease labor unions whose planned strike this week could shut down government offices in all sectors of Africa’s largest economy. – Associated Press

Tuareg rebels in Mali said Monday they captured another military base from the army in the country’s north as fighting intensifies. Attaye Ag Mohamed, spokesman for the Azawad armed movement, told The Associated Press that the rebels seized the military base in the city of Bamba between Timbuktu and Gao on Sunday, as part of a broader strategy to weaken the Malian army. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

The Biden administration warned Beijing of its plans to update rules that curb shipments of AI chips and chipmaking tools to China as soon as early October, a U.S. official said, a policy decision aimed at stabilizing relations between the superpowers. – Reuters

Several Taiwanese technology companies are helping Huawei Technologies Co. build infrastructure for an under-the-radar network of chip plants across southern China, an unusual collaboration that risks inflaming sentiment on a democratic island grappling with Beijing’s growing belligerence. – Bloomberg

The sophisticated chip found in the Chinese company Huawei’s new phone has provoked much hand-wringing in Washington over a central concern: US sanctions may not just be insufficient; they may be backfiring. – Bloomberg

One of the EU’s most senior officials has warned against being “paranoid” or too restrictive when regulating generative artificial intelligence because fear of the technology would stifle innovation. – Financial Times