Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel bans UN aid agency UNRWA from operating in Israel Israeli troops capture around 100 Hamas militants in north Gaza hospital, military says CIA director floated 28-day Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal in Doha JPost’s Zvika Klein: Consensus reached, time’s up for UNRWA: Israel’s Knesset says enough to 'toxic aid' US warns Iran at UN of 'severe consequences' in case of new attacks Iranian-German prisoner Jamshid Sharmahd, who lived in US, executed in Iran over terror conviction WSJ’s Walter Russell Mead: How would the U.S. handle a nuclear Iran? No new limits on Ukraine's use of US weapons if N.Korea enters fight, Pentagon says Hezbollah elects Naim Qassem to succeed slain head Nasrallah WSJ Editorial: Japan’s political shakeup South Africa submits its main legal claim to the top UN court which accuses Israel of genocide Treasury issues rule to block US investors from helping China develop advanced military technologyIn The News
Israel
As the dust settles from Israel’s latest military strikes against Iran, analysts and former diplomats say one thing is clear: Israel, for better or worse, is dictating events in the Middle East. The United States has been relegated to the role of wing man, as its ally wages war on multiple fronts. – New York Times
As international negotiators discussed a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip on Monday, officials and analysts said there was little expectation that Israel and Hamas would agree to a truce before the American presidential election next Tuesday. – New York Times
Israel passed a law on Monday banning the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA from operating in the country, legislation that could impact its work in war-torn Gaza. – Reuters
Israeli soldiers captured around 100 suspected Hamas militants during a raid in Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza, the military said on Monday. – Reuters
Israel’s defence ministry said on Monday it had signed a 2 billion shekel ($536-million) deal with local contractors to expand production of a new laser-based missile defence system that could be operational in the next year. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he hopes to reach peace deals with more Arab countries once the war against Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah is complete. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel did not receive a proposal that would include the release of four hostages in return for a 48-hour ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. – Reuters
CIA Director Bill Burns discussed a new formulation for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in a meeting on Sunday with Israeli and Qatari counterparts: a 28-day pause in the fighting, with Hamas releasing around 8 hostages and Israel releasing dozens of Palestinian prisoners, according to three Israeli officials. – Axios
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck a rare note of optimism about the possibility of a deal to secure the release of the remaining 101 hostages as he spoke with the Likud faction in the Knesset on Monday. – Jerusalem Post
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, on Monday called on the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran’s military and economic infrastructure and designate the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization. – Arutz Sheva
Sources in Hamas on Monday told the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that the terrorist organization is willing to consider Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s proposal for a hostage release deal. – Arutz Sheva
Zvika Klein writes: Israel’s decision to ban UNRWA reflects a belief that real peace requires breaking free from structures that breed hostility and dependency. By taking this step, Israel challenges the international community to reconsider its support for an organization many now see as fundamentally compromised. […] The question for Western donors is stark: will they push for the radical reforms that Israel believes are essential, or will they recognize that UNRWA, after all these decades, might have reached the end of its mission? – Jerusalem Post
Eric R. Mandel writes: In the past, Iran viewed American conciliatory actions, such as the failure to enforce sanctions, as a sign of weakness, appeasement, and an invitation for aggression. Strength, as in providing Israel with the means to destroy their nuclear program, is the best path to delay an Iranian atomic bomb, restore deterrence, and deescalate the conflict. – Jerusalem Post
Daniel Pomerantz writes: Israel has demonstrated that it has the military capacity to wreak significant destruction on the Iranian military machine, its leadership, and the oil infrastructure that funds both. As we wait to see how events unfold, one thing seems clear: the future direction of the Middle East lies, to a great extent, in Israel’s hands. – Algemeiner
Iran
Iran’s government plans to raise its military budget by around 200%, the country’s Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Tuesday, according to state media. – Reuters
The United States warned Iran at the United Nations Security Council on Monday of “severe consequences” if it undertakes any further aggressive acts against Israel or U.S. personnel in the Middle East. – Reuters
Iranian-German prisoner Jamshid Sharmahd, who was kidnapped in Dubai in 2020 by Iranian security forces, has been executed in Iran after being convicted on disputed terror charges, the country’s judiciary reported Monday. – Associated Press
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had his Hebrew Twitter/X account suspended overnight after just two posts. “Account suspended. X suspends accounts which violate the X Rules,” the statement on the account read. – Jerusalem Post
Shortly before Israel launched its retaliatory attack on Iran on Saturday, radar systems in the Iranian defense systems were breached, and the radar screens froze, KAN reported on Monday, citing Iranian sources. – Jerusalem Post
Israel is determined to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday at the opening plenum of the Knesset’s winter session. – Jerusalem Post
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave his “best wishes” to Iran and accused Israel of trying to provoke a regional war in the Middle East in response to the Jewish state’s airstrikes against Iranian military targets over the weekend. – Algemeiner
Walter Russell Mead writes: What America would do about a nuclearizing Iran is a complicated matter. Very few people in the U.S. want another Middle East war. Yet without American help, it is possible that Israel’s only military option against the heavily fortified, regionally dispersed and deeply dug-in Iranian nuclear program would involve Israel’s use of nuclear weapons. […] And would that threat, implicit or overt, be enough to overcome any reluctance in Washington to help Israel dismantle the nuclear sites using conventional weapons? As I’ve written before, 2025 is going to be an interesting year. – Wall Street Journal
Ilan I. Berman writes: In order for the US to proactively shape the contours of the debate within the Iranian opposition it needs to lay out what sort of government it wants in Tehran, and its expectations of the actors that will play a part in bringing about this change. And, given the growing indicators that the Islamic Republic is approaching a fundamental political and social transition, the sooner Washington does so, the better. – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Russia & Ukraine
In a modern fight across the Ukrainian steppe, where it is nearly impossible to hide from the digital eyes of day and night drone surveillance, windbreaks have become one of the most valuable terrain features that Russian and Ukrainian troops fight over. – Washington Post
Local officials say the device used in that attack on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia last month was a Russian glide bomb — the first indication, they say, that Russia would begin targeting their city with the powerful weapon. – New York Times
When Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, spreading divisive and inflammatory posts online to stoke outrage, its posts were brash and riddled with spelling errors and strange syntax. They were designed to get attention by any means necessary. – New York Times
The United States warned on Monday that North Korean soldiers were moving toward Russia’s western Kursk region, which Ukraine invaded in August, as Ukrainian forces braced for what they said could be imminent assaults involving the new troops. – New York Times
At least four people were killed and another four injured in Russia’s multi-wave overnight attacks on Ukraine’s two largest cities of Kharkiv and Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukraine would not see any new restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons against North Korean forces should they enter the fight against Ukrainian forces, the Pentagon said on Monday, as it estimated 10,000 North Korean troops had been deployed to eastern Russia for training. – Reuters
Russia took 196.1 square km of Ukrainian territory over the week of Oct. 20-27, making it the swiftest weekly advance for Russian forces this year, according to the Russian media group Agentstvo which analysed Ukrainian open source maps. – Reuters
Russia’s troops have reportedly captured the last town before Pokrovsk, which is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk Region. – Bloomberg
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy traveled to Iceland on Monday for a meeting with Nordic leaders as he seeks to secure support for the country’s war aims. – Bloomberg
Hezbollah
Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said on Tuesday it had elected deputy head Naim Qassem to succeed slain secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli air attack on Beirut’s southern suburb over a month ago. – Reuters
A member of the Christian Lebanese Forces party reportedly demanded in parliament that the government stop Hezbollah from bringing further problems to the country, KAN reported on Monday. – Jerusalem Post
Israeli airstrikes hit the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on Monday after the IDF called for residents in large swaths of the ancient coastal city to evacuate, while Hezbollah rockets continued to rain down across northern Israel. – Times of Israel
Mordechai Kedar writes: Stop suffering for the sake of Hezbollah, who only cares about what is best for Iran and its proxies, not you. Help Israel liberate Lebanon from Hezbollah and replace it with the Azerbaijani model of multiculturalism, which will peacefully coexist beside the State of Israel. Do this so that your children and grandchildren can have a better life. Liberate Lebanon from Hezbollah’s tyranny. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
Morocco agreed to buy high-speed trains from French company Alstom on Monday, one of a series of business deals signed during President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the kingdom as the two countries turn the page on years of diplomatic tensions. – Reuters
The United Arab Emirates and Vietnam have signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), the first free-trade agreement Vietnam has established with a Middle East country, the Vietnamese trade ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a ship traveling through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Red Sea on Monday, though it escaped undamaged, authorities said. – Associated Press
Iraq has submitted a formal complaint to the Secretary-General of the United Nations and to the UN Security Council against Israel for using its airspace while attacking Iran. – Arutz Sheva
Korean Peninsula
Some high-ranking North Korean military officials and troops deployed to Russia for the war in Ukraine might move to the frontline, South Korean lawmakers said on Tuesday after being briefed by the country’s spy agency. – Reuters
North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, is on her way to Moscow, state media KCNA and Russian officials said on Tuesday, for her second trip to Russia in six weeks amid rising concerns about Pyongyang’s involvement in Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – Reuters
South Korean strategists suggest the North’s intervention could justify NATO members entering the war on the ground and in the air, not just by supplying arms and ammunition. – New York Sun
Andreas Kluth writes: And yet there’s still reason for hope. No country wants to be the first to use a nuclear weapon. Leaders will do so only when they fear that their own regime or life is at risk. When facing such adversaries — weaker but nuclear-armed — the US should keep wars limited, with minimalist rather than crushing victories, and with no talk whatsoever of regime change. Counterintuitive, perhaps. But prudent. – Bloomberg
China
Chinese President Xi Jinping asked U.S. President Joe Biden last year to change the language the United States uses when discussing its position on Taiwanese independence, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the private conversation. – Reuters
China’s Ministry of State Security said on Tuesday that it had retrieved spying devices both on the ocean surface and in the depths of the sea, including underwater “lighthouses” that could guide the transit of foreign submarines. – Reuters
China said all systems are ready to launch the next crew to its orbiting space station early Wednesday, the latest mission to make the country a major space power. – Associated Press
Foreign instigators linked to Russia and China are to blame for amplifying disinformation about the US government’s response to a pair of hurricanes that devastated several southeastern states, according to a US official. – Bloomberg
President Xi Jinping urged China to project more soft power, underscoring his campaign to make the nation more influential globally and challenge the US-led order. – Bloomberg
South Asia
Canada and the U.S. must get tougher on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for trying to silence dissidents on foreign soil, a controversial Sikh separatist who was the target of an alleged India-led murder plot said in an interview. – Reuters
Pakistan’s police on Monday arrested a Pakistani lawyer and her husband who are known for taking on human rights cases, drawing criticism from rights groups. – Associated Press
Pakistan began a nationwide vaccination campaign Monday to protect 45 million children from polio after a surge in new cases that has hampered years of efforts to stop the disease in one of the two countries where it has never been eradicated. – Associated Press
Narayanappa Janardhan and Husain Haqqani write: Although the expansion of BRICS signals the desire of many middle powers to find a way forward without being bound by inconsistent policies formulated in Washington, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan says the U.S. is not anticipating the BRICS grouping evolving into a “geopolitical rival to the United States.” But understanding the concerns that are prompting countries to join a non-West grouping like BRICS should be part of America’s plans for engagement with these emerging economies. – The Hill
Aparna Pande writes: The India-US partnership is now a multi-faceted one that ranges from the arenas of military and economics to a knowledge partnership in high technology, space and cyber, and healthcare. It is likely to endure past the US election as it is based on the national interests of both countries and underpinned by shared values. However, Indians like other American partners, will have to accept that a strategic partnership cannot be fully friction free. The aim should be to ensure that even when countries disagree on issues, they continue to have conversations. – Outlook
Asia
As voters handed the longtime governing party of Japan a resounding blow in snap parliamentary elections on Sunday, there were signs that their frustration could convert one of the region’s most stable democracies into a much more chaotic one. – New York Times
The former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte defended his so-called war on drugs in testimony before the country’s Senate on Monday, saying he took “full legal responsibility” for the campaign of extrajudicial killings that left thousands dead and is being investigated by the International Criminal Court. – New York Times
Parties loyal to Uzbekistan’s president swept parliament seats, according to official results released on Monday, in an election devoid of any real opposition in the tightly controlled Central Asian country – Associated Press
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim welcomed an apology from imprisoned former premier Najib Razak, who is seeking leniency for his crimes related to the multibillion dollar 1MDB scandal. – Bloomberg
Editorial: If so, voters will have proven, as they so often do around the world, that they’re smarter than their politicians. Perhaps one day someone in Tokyo will offer some ideas for how to grow the economy and pay for defense at the same time. It can be done (hint: cutting Tokyo’s huge and wasteful spending on most other things could help) and the person who figures out how might even win a clear electoral mandate. – Wall Street Journal
Europe
Thousands of opposition protesters waving Georgian and European Union flags rallied outside the nation’s Parliament on Monday evening after President Salome Zourabichvili, a strong advocate of democracy and Western ties, described Saturday’s parliamentary elections as rigged and illegitimate. – Washington Post
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, had scored a coup. She pushed through a tough anti-migration plan that would force some asylum seekers headed for Italy instead into a detention center in Albania while their claims are heard. – New York Times
Two years ago, a British government rolled out a fiscal plan that rattled financial markets, drove up mortgage rates, torpedoed the pound and doomed the prime minister, Liz Truss, who would later resign after less than two months in office. – New York Times
Britain on Monday imposed sanctions on three Russian agencies and three senior figures at the agencies who it said were trying to use disinformation to “undermine and destabilise Ukraine and its democracy”. – Reuters
Italian politicians called Monday for better protection of citizens’ online data following a probe into a hacking scheme that allegedly breached law enforcement, tax authority and other sensitive public data. – Associated Press
Lithuania’ s center-left opposition parties celebrated victory on Monday after prevailing over the center-right ruling coalition in the final round of national elections. – Associated Press
A group of European Union member states criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for what they called a “premature” visit to Georgia two days after an election that the Caucasus nation’s opposition said was rigged. – Bloomberg
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy on Monday criticized the bills that were passed by the Knesset banning the activities of UNRWA, the UN agency for “Palestinian refugees”, writing on X that the bills “are totally wrong.” – Arutz Sheva
The Czech Ministry of Defence has signed a deal to purchase two Embraer C-390 Millennium transport aircraft, making Prague the fifth NATO member to order the Brazilian plane for its air force. – Defense News
Ian Kelly and David J. Kramer write: As Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski declared, “Europe must now stand with the Georgian people.” So should the United States. The Georgian people, who remain very pro-West and are eager to join NATO and the EU, deserve no less—just like those struggling for freedom and human rights around the world. Georgia has become the latest battleground, and it’s time for the United States to rise to the challenge. – Foreign Policy
Africa
Around 40 soldiers were killed in an attack on a military base in Chad’s Lake region over the weekend, the central African country’s presidency said on Monday. – Reuters
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed to the Security Council on Monday for its support to help protect civilians in war-torn Sudan, but said conditions are not right for deployment of a U.N. force. – Reuters
The South African legal team delivered a nearly 5,000-page document to the United Nations’ top court on Monday, the latest step in a case the country brought accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. – Associated Press
Congo desperately wants stability in its mineral-rich east, of intense interest to the global economy. But political friction means the government wants the longtime United Nations peacekeeping force there to get out. – Associated Press
Botswana votes in a national election this week that will decide if the ruling party extends a 58-year stretch in power in a southern African country that is a leading diamond producer and often held up as one of the most stable and least corrupt democracies on the continent. – Associated Press
Guinea authorities dissolved dozens of political parties and placed two major opposition ones under observation late Monday, while the transitional government has yet to announce a date for elections. – Associated Press
Venâncio Mondlane, the fiery opposition presidential candidate who was declared the runner-up in Mozambique’s Oct. 9 elections, warned of further protests against what he’s described as a fraudulent outcome. – Bloomberg
Imran Khalid writes: Ethiopia, for its part, needs to act swiftly. Diplomacy is key — both with Egypt and Eritrea and on the global stage. Engaging with international organizations and securing the support of the U.S., which remains invested in Egypt’s cooperation as long as it doesn’t threaten Israel, will be crucial. Ethiopia may also strengthen ties with Kenya and Sudan to form a regional counterbalance. – The Hill
The Americas
Bolivia’s government on Monday denied accusations that it had led a targeted attack on ex-President Evo Morales, whose car was shot at on Sunday, claiming the former leader’s convoy had fired on special anti-narcotics police who were carrying out a patrol. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday condemned an apparent assassination attempt on former Bolivian President Evo Morales a day earlier, which took place amid a growing dispute within the Andean country’s socialist ruling party. – Reuters
Mexico’s Supreme Court published a proposal on Monday to invalidate core parts of a controversial judicial overhaul that has rattled markets and shaken investor confidence in Latin America’s second-largest economy. – Reuters
Uruguay’s presidential election opened a monthlong window on Monday during which the leading center-left and center-right coalitions will go all-out to pull more voters into their camps ahead of a heated runoff. – Associated Press
Voters in British Columbia elected the New Democratic Party by a wafer-thin majority, giving the progressive party that has ruled the Canadian province since 2017 a chance to cling to power with a diminished mandate. – Bloomberg
The Argentine government is moving closer to buying new submarines, eying the acquisition of three Scorpene boats from France’s Naval Group that could cost $2 billion, according to military sources in Buenos Aires. – Defense News
United States
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the West Bank’s economy could collapse if Israel doesn’t preserve its banking relationship with Palestinian financial institutions in the territory it occupies, highlighting another potential source of instability as Israel also fights foes in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. – Wall Street Journal
The United States on Monday announced a visa restriction policy for individuals Washington deems responsible for undermining democracy in Ghana, ahead of the December presidential and parliamentary elections in the West African country. – Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant discussed “opportunities for regional de-escalation” during a telephone call on Monday, the Pentagon said, amid the continuing conflict in the Middle East. – Reuters
With the U.S. presidential election just a week away, the Biden administration is not giving up hope for short-term deals for cease-fires between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Associated Press
The U.S. Treasury Department, seeking to keep the Chinese military from gaining an edge in advanced technologies, issued a rule Monday to restrict and monitor American investments in China in artificial intelligence, computer chips and quantum computing. – Associated Press
The US blasted legislation passed by the Knesset on Monday that targets the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees, arguing that it risks “catastrophe” for millions of Palestinians and urging Jerusalem to hold off on implementing the laws. – Times of Israel
Michael Rubin writes: Political campaigns polarize, but not every issue should be a political football. The world’s rogues will test the mettle of whoever wins. That may not be new, but the nature and breadth of the test will be larger as American enemies coordinate in ways not seen since World War II. As the next administration and Congress take office, it will be essential to approach security as it is now rather than approach it with a complacent belief that America’s enemies and their strategies have failed to evolve. – Washington Examiner
Cybersecurity
A cyberattack in May gave hackers access to the personal, financial and medical information of more than 47,000 residents living in Wichita County, Texas. – The Record
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized Russia’s use of disinformation to destabilize democracies in the Western Balkans region. – The Record
Free, the second-largest internet service provider in France, confirmed being hacked this weekend following the attempted sale of purportedly stolen customer information on a cybercrime forum. – The Record
Defense
The US Army is looking to speed up weapons development and procurement to keep up with evolving technology and make sure new equipment isn’t out of date before it gets into the hands of American soldiers, the Army chief of staff said in an interview. – Bloomberg
The upcoming B-21 Raider stealth bomber could end up having a larger role in the Air Force’s plans for future air dominance, as the service rethinks its plans for an advanced sixth-generation fighter. – Defense News
The U.S. Space Force saw a sixfold increase in demand for foreign military sales over the last year – growth that the service attributes to the increasingly important role space systems play in economic and national security worldwide. – Defense News
The Harry S. Truman and U.K. carrier strike groups are currently in the North Sea participating in NATO exercise Neptune Strike (NEST) 24-2, a week-long exercise that began on Oct. 24 and wraps up Thursday. – USNI News
Wilson Beaver writes: The United States, in turn, must prioritize resources and forces for the Indo–Pacific and increase investments in its own defense industrial base, especially the submarine industrial base, in order to meet its AUKUS commitments and increase its presence in the region. In concert with other allies and partners in the region, the U.S.–Australian alliance will be pivotal to establishing credible deterrence and maintaining a free and open Indo–Pacific. – Heritage Foundation