Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

These urban scenes — seemingly mundane in much of the world but striking in Iran — illustrate how common it has become for Iranian women to flout the law, in place for over four decades, requiring they cover their hair and dress modestly in public. – Washington Post

Many of those vessels belong to what’s known in shipping as the shadow fleet – the tankers that transport sanctioned cargoes from countries such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela, concealing their trade with fake locations, documents and names. – Reuters

Mordechai Kedar writes: It is important to note that during the last two years, the years of the war between Israel and Hamas, there has been considerable progress in the coordinated public action of Islamist organizations in Western European countries, the US, South America, South Africa, and Australia, and this activity – which has so far been directed against Israel – could assist Iran in realizing its hegemonic ambitions over the Middle East and the Caucasus. It is important that the leaders of the Gulf states, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan cooperate against Iranian hegemonic ambitions, which endanger world security after the expiration of Resolution 2231. – Jerusalem Post

Joseph Rodgers and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. write: If Tehran continues to deny international access to its nuclear program while actively constructing secretive underground facilities such as Pickaxe Mountain, Iran could build back key aspects of its nuclear program in the dark. The international community must pressure Iran to comply with the NPT and cooperate with the IAEA as a prerequisite for any meaningful future dialogue. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Syria

U.S. President Donald Trump has withdrawn the nomination of Joel Rayburn, an envoy for Syria during his first White House term, to be assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, two sources familiar with the matter said on Monday. – Reuters 

Samer al-Ahmed and Subhi Franjieh write: Amid the push and pull of caution and necessity, the partnership between Damascus and the coalition is taking shape even as the memory of past hostility endures. Yet how far can this partnership go in overcoming the legacy of mistrust? Can both sides turn their tactical coordination into a stable strategic partnership? In a moment when the regional balance of power is shifting, Syria faces a new test: It must either solidify its place within an emerging international security framework or leave the vacuum for others to fill. – Middle East Institute

David Petraeus writes: Interviewing Ahmed al-Shara, someone who was very much on the other side in our early years in Iraq, was not just a moment of personal reflection (and more than a bit surreal). It was also a reminder that history is not linear and that the most unlikely figures can sometimes become the most consequential. Let us hope that this proves to be the case with Ahmed al-Shara. Whether his transformation endures or falters, the stakes for Syria—and for us—could not be higher. – The National Interest

Lebanon

Lebanon’s army has blown up so many Hezbollah arms caches that it has run out of explosives, as it races to meet a year-end deadline to disarm the Shi’ite militia in the south of the country under a ceasefire agreed with Israel, two sources told Reuters. – Reuters

The Israeli army and the United Nations’ peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon said peacekeepers shot down an Israeli drone over the weekend but gave conflicting statements about the circumstances. – Associated Press

France was responsible for the decision to shoot down an Israeli drone in Kafr Kila, southern Lebanon, on Sunday, a diplomatic source told French outlet Le Figaro on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia has ordered the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES), a prominent civil rights and migrant advocacy organization, to suspend activities for a month, the group said on Monday, one of several associations under such orders. – Reuters 

Countries would reject being asked to “enforce” peace in Gaza if deployed under the Trump ceasefire plan, King Abdullah of Jordan has told the BBC. – BBC

A Jordanian lawyer has asked Israeli authorities for intervention after he was disbarred from the Jordanian Bar Association (JBA) for representing an Israeli kibbutz in a business dispute with a Jordanian company. – Jerusalem Post

Jonathan Spyer writes: In the Middle East, the West and its allies remain the strongest gathering in conventional terms. But they have yet to translate that superiority into a decisive victory. One Islamist bloc, that of the Iranians, has been considerably weakened. Another, that of Turkey and Qatar, has grown stronger. The contest is set to continue. – Wall Street Journal

China

When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, sits down with President Trump to address their worsening trade tensions, he will also be pursuing another, longer goal: persuading the American president to soften U.S. support for Taiwan. – New York Times

China has called on its neighbours Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries to make greater efforts in science and technology, including carrying out joint scientific and technological research, according to the official Xinhua. – Reuters 

The United States and China are not going to resolve all the issues that divide them before presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet Thursday in Busan, South Korea. But they are likely to make enough progress on China’s stranglehold on strategic minerals, American export controls and other nettlesome problems to calm financial markets and prevent their rivalry from doing much more economic damage for now. – Associated Press

Chinese analysts expect the US to dial back new export control rules targeting thousands of Chinese firms when presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet this week. – Bloomberg

China’s ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its own homegrown passenger jet is running into turbulence, with deliveries of finished aircraft likely to fall far short of its target announced for this year. – Associated Press

Editorial: Taiwan passes every test for a U.S. interest from raw geopolitics to core values. It is part of the first Pacific island chain that forms the U.S. security perimeter against Beijing’s ambitions. Too few politicians are pressing that case to the public. But for this week Mr. Trump can make a donation to world peace by refusing Mr. Xi’s demands to sell out Taiwan. – Wall Street Journal 

Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim write: Collective economic deterrence has already been shown to work. In response to China’s sanctions against Lithuania in 2021 for opening a Taiwan office, the European Union created a list of retaliatory measures and an adjudication system for identifying China’s coercion. […] Importantly, collective economic deterrence would only be used if China acts out. In this sense, it is a strategy aimed not at starting a trade war, but at stopping China’s destruction of the free-trade order. To do nothing, or to cave to China’s demands, only ensures more intimidation. – Washington Post

William McGurn writes: Today Beijing is in the same predicament with Mr. Lai. As for Mr. Trump, he has every incentive to keep talking about Mr. Lai and other political prisoners. “I am deeply grateful for President Trump’s support for my father,” Jimmy Lai’s son Sebastien says. “We are praying that the president will persuade Xi Jinping to let my dad come home before it is too late.” – Wall Street Journal 

Trey Gowdy writes: Do not mistake diplomacy for weakness or discussion for a lack of resolve. Trump can make peace, level the playing field, stop intellectual property theft, punish currency manipulation and allow for healthy, fair competition, even among perceived opponents. The fact that someone seeks peace does not mean he isn’t preparing for a world without it. China would be wise to know that while democracy limits a person’s time in office, it does nothing to deter the speed with which actions can be taken to preserve that democracy. – Fox News

Asia

President Trump’s quest to reorder global trade through personal diplomacy will be tested during his tour of Asia this week, as he faces the tantalizing prospect of a pact with China and the chance to bust through obstacles to completing deals with other key trading partners. – Wall Street Journal 

A cascade of billion-dollar deals is reshaping the once-dormant Western critical-minerals industry, which the U.S. and its allies hope will act as a bulwark against aggressive trade practices by China. – Wall Street Journal 

President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday signed a framework agreement to cooperate on critical minerals, as the United States seeks to limit dependency on China for the materials, which are essential components in everything from cellphones to jet engines. – Washington Post

American officials believed nearly two years ago that Vietnam was about to buy C-130 military transport planes from the United States. In interviews, they said the sale would be a powerful blow to Russia, Hanoi’s main military partner, and a clear sign that geopolitical swing states like Vietnam were tilting toward Washington, not Moscow or Beijing. – New York Times

A New York Times investigation — relying on documents from a Russian defense supplier and interviews with officials from Vietnam, the United States and other countries — has identified a string of Russian military purchases by Vietnam, covert payment systems and a major shift in tone as Hanoi grows distant from Washington and closer to Moscow. – New York Times

A man accused of fatally shooting former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to go on trial on Tuesday, three years after the assassination of Japan’s longest-serving premier stunned a nation where gun crime and political violence are rare. – Reuters 

Indonesia has drawn up new rules that will allow the central government to lend to local authorities and state-owned enterprises in order to support the country’s development projects. – Reuters 

The ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations and China on Tuesday signed an upgrade to their free trade agreement, which includes sections on digital, the green economy and other new industries, Beijing’s Commerce Ministry said. – Reuters 

The U.S. expects that Thailand will work with Cambodia to begin the release of 18 soldiers immediately, a senior State Department official said on Monday, after the leaders of the countries signed an enhanced ceasefire deal on Sunday in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump.- Reuters 

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told the East Asia summit on Monday that Asia-Pacific leaders must choose dialogue over coercion and cooperation over confrontation, stressing the need for engagement in light of global conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, North Korea and the sharpened U.S.–China rivalry. – Associated Press

Myanmar’s military government has detained more than 10,000 foreign nationals over the past nine months who the junta said illegally entered the country for involvement in online scams. – Bloomberg

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said China has been conducting training missions in the western Pacific aimed at limiting U.S. and allied military access. The exercises reflect Beijing’s effort to expand its anti-access/area-denial, or A2/AD, capabilities – a strategy meant to keep opposing forces from entering or operating freely in nearby regions. – Fox News

Walter Russell Mead writes: But neither seeks war with the other, and both seek to pursue their competition in conditions that let their societies flourish. Signs that emerged over the weekend of a likely compromise bear this out. Nothing involving Mr. Trump is ever safely predictable, but on balance he appears likely to return from his Pacific odyssey having secured a reasonable short-term compromise with China while advancing his plans for reshaping America’s role in the world. – Wall Street Journal 

Karishma Vaswani writes: Boosting coordination with other partners who share similar grievances could also help. Tokyo is already offering some support to small and middle powers, such as Australia, South Korea, India and the Philippines. It could cooperate further in their joint efforts to push back against Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Takaichi could also urge Trump to make clear the US position on Taiwan, amid concerns that he will go soft on China in order to reach a deal with Xi. – Bloomberg

Africa

Sudanese rebels captured the last government stronghold in Darfur, seizing full control of a region where they have twice been accused of committing genocide. – Wall Street Journal 

The world’s oldest president on record, Paul Biya, was declared the winner on Monday of Cameroon’s presidential election with nearly 54 percent of the vote, securing an eighth term that, if completed, will last until he is nearly 100. – New York Times

The longtime president of Ivory Coast, Alassane Ouattara, easily won re-election in a vote that critics called flawed after two of his main opponents were barred from running against him. – New York Times

U.S. Vice President JD Vance plans to visit Kenya next month after going to a summit in South Africa, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters 

Separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu on Monday refused to defend himself against terrorism charges, telling a Nigerian court there was no valid case against him and demanding immediate release. – Reuters 

A Malian court has sentenced former Prime Minister Moussa Mara to two years in prison over a social media post that criticized military rulers for shrinking democratic space in the West African nation, his lawyer said on Monday. – Reuters 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) held productive talks with Malawi’s new government during its annual meetings in Washington this month, an IMF spokesperson said on Monday, as the Southern African country looks to secure a new lending programme. – Reuters 

Malawi’s president declared a state of disaster following a warning that more than a fifth of the southern African nation’s population face food insecurity. – Bloomberg

North America

Economists expect the Bank of Canada to make a second consecutive policy rate cut this week due to a slowing economy and high joblessness. – Reuters 

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said he plans to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this week when both leaders are at a summit in South Korea, aiming to firm up relations with the world’s second biggest economy while long-standing ties with the US fray. – Bloomberg

Mexico failed to deliver millions of gallons of water to South Texas farmers, in defiance of a 1944 treaty. Now, members of Texas’ congressional delegation are calling on the Trump administration to make Mexico’s failure a part of upcoming trade negotiations — including new sanctions if necessary. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

Taiwan’s Foxconn said its board of directors has approved an investment plan to procure equipment for a AI compute cluster and a supercomputing centre, that will allow it to spend up to NT$42 billion ($1.37 billion). – Reuters 

Instagram owner Meta and other social media firms said on Tuesday they will comply with a ban on users under the age of 16, adding that they will start deactivating accounts once the law takes effect on December 10. – Reuters 

The Netherlands’ decision to take control of chipmaker Nexperia in September was due to fears the company’s former CEO was already dismantling the company’s European operations and moving production to China, four sources in The Hague familiar with the government’s thinking said on Monday. – Reuters 

A hacker group calling itself the “Cyber Support Front” published a video showing what it claims to be intelligence it obtained after hacking the Israeli company MAYA, which develops mechanical and electronic devices for civil, medical, and defense industries in Israel. – Arutz Sheva

More than 70 countries signed the landmark UN Convention against Cybercrime in Hanoi this weekend, a significant step in the yearslong effort to create a global mechanism to counteract digital crime. – The Record

Kaspersky researchers said Monday that they’ve unearthed a malware campaign they’re linking to the successor company of the infamous Italy-based surveillance tech firm Hacking Team, and at the same time discovered new commercial malware tied to the same firm. – CyberScoop

Cory Gardner writes: We also need a better national policy on unlicensed spectrum – the radio frequencies that undergird Wi-Fi – to ensure our country’s continued Wi-Fi leadership. And we must maintain federal incentives that fuel private investment in internet infrastructure to meet AI’s massive data demands. If we get this right, the United States won’t just compete in the AI era – we’ll indisputably lead it and leave China in the dust. The same networks connecting Americans today will secure our economic success, our technological leadership and our national future tomorrow. – Fox News

Bhaskar Chakravorti writes: Deploying such small AI requires several changes in approach. First, the industry needs to reset its priorities from focusing solely on building general intelligence technology with unclear benefits to instead asking how the technology can be made good enough to solve some of the most widely felt and most stubborn problems worldwide. This usually entails a timely injection of specialized knowledge that translates into a meaningful jump in productivity or human well-being in information-starved contexts, where productivity and the state of well-being are low. There are few substitutes for the kind of knowledge that AI can contribute, making such environments a vast addressable market in social terms and—with the right business models—in economic terms, as well. – Foreign Policy