Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Israeli strikes on Iran hit several of Tehran’s most advanced air defenses, exposing Iran’s vulnerability to future attacks as the two enemies engage in a new era of direct confrontation. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s top cease-fire negotiator made a new offer to Hamas members: Enjoy safe passage to another country if you lay down your arms and release the hostages. – Wall Street Journal

A freight truck plowed into a crowd at a bus stop in central Israel on Sunday, killing one person and injuring dozens more in a suspected terrorist attack, while negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza were renewed in Doha. – Wall Street Journal

The United Nations Security Council will meet on Monday to discuss Israel’s attack on Iran, council president Switzerland said on Sunday. – Reuters

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that Iran is no longer able to effectively use its proxies Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel. – Reuters

Israel’s military eased some safety restrictions for residents in areas of northern Israel late on Saturday, a possible indication that it does not expect any immediate large-scale attack from Iran or its proxies in the region. – Reuters

The International Criminal Court (ICC) said on Friday it had replaced one of the judges deciding on a prosecution request for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a move that could lead to further delays in the case. – Reuters

An Israeli attack on Iran damaged facilities at a secretive military base southeast of the Iranian capital that experts in the past have linked to Tehran’s onetime nuclear weapons program and at another base tied to its ballistic missile program, satellite photos analyzed Sunday by The Associated Press show. – Associated Press

The secretary-general of the United Nations is being called out for mourning the death of an Unrwa employee, Mohammad Abu Itiwi, who doubled as a Hamas commander and has been blamed for the abduction of civilians, including dual American-Israeli citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin. – New York Sun

The Israeli army said Friday that a strike that killed three journalists in south Lebanon was “under review,” maintaining that it had targeted Hezbollah militants. – Agence France-Presse

The Knesset is set to pass two bills on Monday that would shut down the United Nations Relief and Works Agency operations in east Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank within 90 days, despite a massive international pressure campaign against such a step. – Jerusalem Post

The State Attorney filed an indictment on Friday at the Haifa District Court against seven residents of Haifa and northern Israel, who were suspected of operating an Iranian spy cell for approximately two years. – Jerusalem Post

A Hamas operative planning an “imminent” terror attack was killed by special forces in the West Bank city of Tulkarem on Saturday, the IDF, Shin Bet, and police announced. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The President hopes this Israeli strike is the end, but it could be the beginning. By devastating Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel has created a new regional reality. Now stripped of its air defenses, Iran is playing with an empty net. The region awaits a U.S. Administration awake to the possibilities. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: It’s past time for Iran to accept the failure and cost of its aggressive attempts to throttle and destabilize Israel, by deescalating itself and reining in its attack dogs. There is, after all, a ready peace to be had in Lebanon; all Hezbollah has to do is agree to implement the UN resolutions it agreed to in 2006, pull back to from Israel’s border and muzzle its guns. It’s also time for Israel to take the win. The alternative is a regional war that will bring nobody security or prosperity, including Israel. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: Similar to former Israeli Prime Minister Gold Meir after the Yom Kippur War intelligence failure, this likely means resignation. Rather, a Nobel Peace Prize would be the simple recognition that Netanyahu, through creativity, stubbornness, and military leadership, forwarded peace more in the Middle East than any leader of the past half century, if not Israel’s entire history. – Washington Examiner

Russia & Ukraine

Several times over the past three months, swarms of as many as 150 Ukrainian drones flew hundreds of miles into Russia, slamming into missile storage facilities, strategic fuel reservoirs, military airfields and defense plants. – Wall Street Journal

As President Volodymyr Zelensky toured Europe and the United States to pitch his “victory plan” for how to end the war with Russia, Ukrainian forces suffered new setbacks on the battlefield — including, analysts say, ceding up to half of the territory Kyiv claimed during its cross-border offensive into Russia’s Kursk region this summer. – Washington Post

Ukrainian drones targeted ethanol plants in Russia’s southern region of Voronezh, Russian channels on the Telegram app said, while the regional governor said the attack injured two people, sparked a fire and damaged two industrial enterprises. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that Russia’s defence ministry was working on different ways to respond if the United States and its NATO allies help Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with long-range Western missiles. – Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that cooperation within the ‘Ukraine plus Northern Europe’ format is gaining speed with more steps that can increase pressure on Russia expected in the coming week. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has rejected a plan for the U.N. Secretary General to visit Kyiv due to Antonio Guterres’s attendance at this week’s BRICS summit in Russia, a Ukrainian official said on Friday. – Reuters

Leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies on Friday reached consensus on delivery of some $50 billion in loans to Ukraine backed by the earnings from frozen Russian sovereign assets starting as early as December. – Reuters

Ukraine’s bid to have Russia added to an international list of countries with weak money laundering compliance has failed again after the move was rejected by countries including China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that it was Russia’s business whether or not it decided to use North Korean troops and said that if Ukraine wanted to join NATO then Moscow could do what it wanted to ensure its own security. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that Russia plans to deploy North Korean troops to the battlefield starting Oct. 27-28, citing intelligence reports. – Reuters

Editorial: Mr. Putin doesn’t want Georgia in the EU. Georgian Dream hurt the country’s European aspirations in May when it passed a Russian-style law governing civic institutions despite widespread public opposition. Mr. Putin wants to coalesce a sphere of Russian authoritarian power, as he has in Belarus and is attempting in Ukraine and Moldova. Georgia is the latest setback for global freedom. – Wall Street Journal

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Negotiations won’t stop the Russian system’s slow-motion collapse; indeed, by revealing the actual depth of the weakness of the regime and the state, they might accelerate it. Ironically, Orbán’s opposition to Zelensky’s plan and concomitant support of negotiations is a poison pill for his pal Putin. Hungary’s goulash dictator thinks he’s helping Russia’s president. In fact, Orbán is hastening Putin’s political demise — and his own. – The Hill

Turkey

Russian President Vladimir Putin said his Turkish counterpart, Tayyip Erdogan, had proposed reviving contacts on Black Sea shipping but that he had not yet had time to study the documents. – Reuters

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group on Friday claimed responsibility for this week’s attack on Turkish defence company TUSAS that killed five people in Ankara, it said in a statement. – Reuters

The commander of a Kurdish-led force in Syria denied links to a deadly attack near Ankara claimed by Kurdish PKK militants, after Turkish strikes on Kurd-held Syria killed more than a dozen people in retaliation. – Agence France-Presse

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt has proposed an initial two-day ceasefire in Gaza to exchange four Israeli hostages of Hamas for some Palestinian prisoners, Egypt’s president said on Sunday as Israeli military strikes killed 45 Palestinians across the enclave. – Reuters

Iraq’s transport ministry suspended flights across all airports until further notice “due to regional tensions,” the Iraqi state news agency INA reported after the Israeli military said it conducted strikes against Iranian military targets early on Saturday. – Reuters

An Israeli airstrike targeted some military sites in Syria’s central and southern parts early on Saturday, Syrian state news agency SANA reported. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron arrives Monday in Morocco, where he is expected to meet with the North African kingdom’s leaders and discuss partnerships regarding trade, climate change and immigration. – Associated Press

The US has signaled to Saudi Arabia it’s ready to help defend the kingdom against an attack by Iran or its proxies, as Gulf states grow increasingly wary of being embroiled in the standoff between the Islamic Republic and Israel, people familiar with the matter said. – Bloomberg

A cross-border attack in October by two young Jordanians against Israeli soldiers is a sign of deep anger at the war in Gaza in a country with strong ties to the Palestinians. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: The lessons of the past are clear: Iran cannot be trusted to foster long-term peace. Instead, Riyadh should look toward Israel, a partner that has demonstrated its willingness to collaborate and innovate for a more peaceful future. Let us hope the Saudis do not squander this moment by turning toward those who have repeatedly shown that their interests lie in disruption, not peace. – Jerusalem Post

China

The Chinese hackers who burrowed into the networks of U.S. telecommunications firms have used their deep access to target the phones of former President Donald Trump, his running mate, JD Vance, and people affiliated with Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

The vise-tight grip that China wields over the mining and refining of rare minerals, crucial ingredients of today’s most advanced technologies, is about to become even stronger. – New York Times

When Xi Jinping held the first-ever talks in Beijing with a former president of Taiwan, seeking to press the island closer to unification, a bookish-looking official stood out for his ease around China’s leader. – New York Times

The European Union and China have agreed to hold further technical negotiations soon on possible alternatives to tariffs on China-built electric vehicles, the European Commission and China’s commerce ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Sunday that Chinese warplanes and warships had carried out another “combat patrol” near the island, after Beijing threatened to take countermeasures in response to a $2 billion arms sale package by the United States. – Reuters

Joseph Bosco writes: However, after witnessing Hong Kong’s demise, and having gotten rid of Chiang Kai-shek’s dictatorship, democratic Taiwanese are in no mood to accept CCP tyranny. In 2005, China adopted its “Anti-Secession” Law, declaring that if Taiwan takes too long to submit to China’s rule, Beijing would resort to “non-peaceful means” to force “reunification.” So says “the motherland.” Beijing’s motives strike most Taiwanese as malicious rather than maternal. – Taipei Times

Asia

Japanese voters deprived the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of the absolute majority it has held for over a decade in Japan’s lower house, with an election Sunday that prolongs a period of uncertainty over the leadership of an important U.S. ally. – Wall Street Journal

More than 100 people are dead or missing after Tropical Storm Trami swept the Philippines, sparking flooding and landslides and forcing tens of thousands to evacuate their homes. – Washington Post

The U.S., South Korean and Japanese national security advisers expressed “grave concern” on Friday over the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia for possible use against Ukraine, the White House said. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department approved a possible military sale to Japan of subsonic sea-skimming aerial targets, follow-On technical support and related equipment for $113 million, the Pentagon said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

Uzbekistan votes in a parliamentary election on Sunday that, in the absence of opposition parties, is certain to produce a legislature loyal to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev despite constitutional reforms bringing some procedural changes. – Reuters

The conservative Liberal National Party in Australia’s Queensland state was on track on Sunday to end almost a decade of centre-left Labor government, after a general election held on Saturday. – Reuters

Taiwan’s top court ruled that key legal changes expanding the powers of legislators were unconstitutional, a decision that will likely make it easier for President Lai Ching-te to govern the archipelago at the center of China-US tensions. – Bloomberg

Gearoid Reidy writes: And yet the LDP has little time to reorganize. There is an upper house election coming next summer, by which time the opposition parties may be able to form the alliances needed to win. Japan has little room for such interregnums. However you measure it, Ishiba doesn’t have time on his side. – Bloomberg

Africa

A major surge in fighting in Sudan has taken a searing toll on civilians, killing hundreds of people in aerial bombings and revenge attacks in the past week, as Africa’s largest war shifts into a higher gear after the end of seasonal rains. – New York Times

Ghana’s government on Saturday rejected Reuters reporting on Islamist militants in Burkina Faso that found they are discreetly using neighbouring Ghana’s north as a logistical and medical base to sustain their insurgency. – Reuters

Ivory Coast’s former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon said on Friday he would seek the nomination of the opposition PDCI party for the country’s 2025 presidential election, challenging party leader and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam. – Reuters

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a financial crime watchdog, said on Friday it removed Senegal from its list of countries under increased scrutiny and added Algeria, Angola, Ivory Coast and Lebanon. – Reuters

Thomas Kwoyelo, a mid-level commander in the notorious Lord’s Resistance Army rebel group, was sentenced to 40 years in prison in Uganda on Friday for war crimes including murder, rape, enslavement, torture and kidnap. – Reuters

A senior United Nations official on Friday called for more international attention to “the forgotten crisis” in Sudan, where more than a year and a half of war pushed the African country to the brink of famine. – Associated Press

Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnangagwa declined an offer by the ruling party to extend his term of office by two years until 2030. – Bloomberg

Jonathan Ping and Joel Odota write: Relying on China risks leaving them vulnerable to shifting priorities in Beijing. By fostering functional relationships with each other, implementing domestic market-based reforms, and seeking external support from states prioritizing good governance, African states can take greater control of their development paths. – War on the Rocks

United States

Two weeks before Israeli warplanes struck Iran Saturday morning, President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed on the parameters of the attack in a half-hour phone call, their first in almost two months. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said on Sunday she was not concerned about talks between former President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and reiterated her positions on the conflict in the Middle East. – Reuters

Editorial: The school says complaints about the pace of the school’s reprimands for the student attackers don’t rise to the legal standard of indifference. That’s a dubious defense of callous administrative behavior. As for the legal standard, bring on discovery when the plaintiffs will get access to emails and Harvard’s internal decision-making process. Stay tuned. – Wall Street Journal

Phillips Payson O’Brien writes: Its excuses have become self-fulfilling: The U.S. has had countless opportunities to step up and help Ukraine promptly, and in every instance, it has prevaricated and wasted time. At some point, Americans should realize that Putin isn’t wondering what the U.S. thinks about him; he is trying relentlessly to win his war. The U.S. should respond to North Korea’s involvement by doing the one thing it always should have done: give Ukraine the means to defeat the Russian invasion. – The Atlantic

Defense

Fearing China will deploy hypersonic weapons to sink ships in the Pacific, the U.S. Navy is moving forward with a plan to arm some of its vessels with Patriot interceptor missiles, two senior defense officials said. – Reuters

A proposed multibillion-dollar missile defence system for Guam has been reduced to 16 sites on the island from the original 22, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said in a draft environmental impact statement on Friday. – Reuters

New White House AI guidance offers a solid framework for safely using the technology, but there needs to be more investment in the enabling infrastructure to better harness AI’s national security potential, Defense Department and industry leaders said this week. – Defense News