Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran’s top military commander on Thursday blamed protesters demonstrating against the country’s clerical rule for a deadly terrorist attack in southern Iran where a gunman killed 15 people, promising to punish anyone who threatened public security. – Wall Street Journal

Violence erupted Thursday in the city of Mahabad in the Kurdish region of western Iran, where protesters attacked government buildings, including the offices of the governor and the mayor. Security forces responded by opening fire on demonstrators, according to videos posted on social media and verified by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

​​Authorities in the Iranian city of Zahedan have sacked the police chief and the head of a police station near where dozens of people were killed four weeks ago during protests which have swept the country, state news agency IRNA said on Thursday. – Reuters

At least 15 people were killed on October 26 in an attack on a key Shi’ite Muslim shrine in southern Iran, state media said, with the Islamic State (IS) militant group claiming responsibility for the assault. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Iran’s Supreme Leader vowed on Thursday to retaliate against those threatening the country’s security after the massacre of Shi’ite pilgrims, an assault claimed by Islamic State which threatens to inflame tensions amid widespread anti-government protests. – Reuters

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Iranians on Thursday to unite after an attack claimed by Islamic State on a shrine that killed 15 people, saying those behind it “will surely be punished”, state television reported. – Reuters

The aging brick campus of the Sharif University of Technology, Iran’s elite technical school, has long been a magnet for the nation’s brightest minds, with a record of elevating its students to the highest reaches of society. – Associated Press

Zineb Riboua writes: Washington has now reached a point where it can no longer perpetuate the myth that it is possible to treat Iran as yet another international player among others in the community. There is an urgent need for a new Iran policy. If the Green Movement failed in 2009 because of a lack of commitment and support from the Obama administration, the Biden administration has the ability to enable the current revolution to succeed. It is in the best interest of the people of Iran and the people of America to suffocate a regime that holds its own citizens hostage and encourages its youth to chant “Death to America!” If we do not take prompt action, the U.S. will pay the price. – Washington Examiner

Israel

In the unscheduled meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, the minister accused Hamas leaders in Turkey of coordinating and funding terror attacks on the West Bank. – Ynet

Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Thursday addressed the challenges of juggling between maintaining Israel’s security interests and being on the right side of history when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine, saying that he does not rule out providing military aid to the war-ravaged country in the future. – Ynet

The Fatah movement, headed by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud ‘Abbas, continues to express support for terrorists who carried out operations against Israelis and to describe them as patriotic heroes. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Israel’s fence-sitting regarding the war in Ukraine is both a moral and strategic mistake, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tells Haaretz in an exclusive interview. Russia may repay Iran for its help by enhancing its nuclear project while Israel does nothing. – Haaretz

Editorial: Benjamin Netanyahu no longer tries to hide it. He might not want to be seen on the same stage as Itamar Ben-Gvir, but even he knows that there is no choice but to give the extremist MK, who is No. 2 on the Religious Zionist Party’s list, and his partner, Bezalel Smotrich, what they want after the election. Assuming that his right-wing bloc reaches and even passes the sought-after 61 seats, Netanyahu will be forced to give his new coalition-mates plum ministries. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: These two events mark important turning points in Israel’s relations. The maritime agreement should ostensibly reduce tensions in the North and enable Israel to extract energy resources, while Lebanon may open up exploration off the coast to companies and investors linked to other countries, including France and Qatar. – Jerusalem Post

Amos Harel writes: According to public opinion polls, at least for now, the violence in the West Bank isn’t directly affecting the November 1 election, which is expected to end in a close race between the two blocs. But when we look at the broader picture, and despite the divisive influence in Israel of the politics of identity, it’s impossible to ignore the significant role of the Palestinian conflict in the developments, even if most voters would prefer to deny it. – Haaretz

Jonathan Lord writes: Reducing the U.S troop presence in the Middle East is an essential part of refocusing it on Russia and China. Therefore, I’d submit that the best advice Herzog could have offered his friend Biden this week to counter Iran, Russia and China all at once is to have the political courage to stop beating up on the Saudis and start building something with them — as the president’s own strategy demands. After all, isn’t that what friends are for? – The Hill

Lebanon

Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-mediated maritime border agreement Thursday, representing a rare example of economic cooperation between the two countries that are still technically at war with one another. – Wall Street Journal

Hezbollah has walked a fine line since the deal was announced on Oct. 11 — cautious not to criticize it, while not fully adopting the diplomatic victory as its own. But as Lebanon’s most dominant military and political force, it cannot pretend that the negotiations happened without its acquiescence. – Washington Post

But the Lebanese government has also emphasized that the deal, reached earlier this month after more than a decade of negotiations, does not signal normalization of relations with Israel and is far less momentous than the agreements that established full diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab states in 2020, or Israel’s earlier peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan. – New York Times

The leader of Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, announced the end of his armed group’s mobilization on Thursday, after Lebanese and Israeli leaders finalised a U.S-brokered maritime demarcation deal. – Reuters

Lebanon’s outgoing President Michel Aoun said on Thursday that a U.S.-brokered deal to delineate the maritime border with Israel would prevent war and the full status of the southern border would be resolved through “dialogue.” – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Israeli businessmen addressed Saudi Arabia’s flagship investment conference this week, in a clear but subtle sign of burgeoning commercial ties and Israel’s growing acceptance in the kingdom despite the two countries still having no formal relations. – Wall Street Journal

The International Monetary Fund announced a $3 billion loan to Egypt on Thursday, the fourth such bailout in six years, in what amounted to more of a Band-Aid than a life raft for a country reeling from the fallout of the war in Ukraine. – New York Times

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz said on Thursday he had asked his staff to start the process of resuming working relations with Turkey after meeting his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on the first such visit in over a decade. – Reuters

Paratroopers from the IDF, the Bahraini military, the Emirati Armed Forces and the US Army completed a joint dive on Wednesday to mark the second anniversary of the Abraham Accords. – Jerusalem Post

Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock write: Likewise, different Arab publics will be open to different efforts and sensitive to or uninterested in others—and these may be distinct from how the United States would prioritize these issues. Once the priorities in each particular country are selected, the means to promote them must be calibrated appropriately. Finally, the United States must also understand that it does not have a monopoly on defining these values—and is now competing with great powers that define them very differently. – Washington Institute

China

For political and military leaders on this democratically self-ruled island, the view across the Taiwan Strait looks a lot more ominous. – Wall Street Journal

China is willing to deepen its relationship with Russia in all levels and any attempt to block the progress of the two nations will never succeed, China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi said on Thursday. – Reuters

China should stop its sabre-rattling against Taiwan and maintain peace and stability, the head of Taiwan’s China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council said on Friday, as Beijing ramped up political and military pressure on the island it claimed as its own. – Reuters

China has reportedly established dozens of “overseas police stations” in nations around the world that activists fear could be used to track and harass dissidents as part of Beijing’s crackdown on corruption. – Associated Press

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) provoked an unusually direct rebuke from the Chinese government this week by proposing sanctions on President Xi Jinping for Beijing’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Axios has learned. – Axios

Keyu Jin writes: In these areas, China may be 10 years or more behind the United States. Techno-nationalism may speed up the rate of convergence, but it is unlikely to close the distance with a fast-moving train. Core technologies take time to develop——years of cumulative learning and knowledge. – New York Times

Akhil Ramesh writes: Every American taxpayer should be asking why we are underwriting China’s ascent to the global pecking order. If Musk chooses to bend the knee to the Chinese Communist Party, it is his prerogative. Americans don’t have to, and hopefully will not anytime in the future. – The Hill

Zhou Bo writes: In a 2018 documentary, Putin asked, “Why do we need a world without Russia in it?” The answer should be, “But where is Russia without the world?” If Putin now opens a nuclear Pandora’s box that was kept closed even during the cold war, it would be a moment of infinite stupidity. China can help the world by simply telling Putin: don’t use nuclear weapons, Mr President. – Financial Times

Stephen Mihm writes: What’s more clear is that investors need to realize that the chance of normalizing trade relations is becoming increasingly remote. The revival of sweeping export controls to contain China’s ambitions offers yet more evidence that the forces of globalization — seemingly victorious only a decade ago — are in disarray. A new Cold War, not so different from the old one, may soon divide the world. – Bloomberg

Europe

European leaders have been converging on Africa’s capital cities, eager to find alternatives to Russian natural gas — sparking hope among their counterparts in Africa that the invasion of Ukraine may tilt the scales in the continent’s unequal relationship with Europe, attracting a new wave of gas investments despite pressure to pivot to renewables. – New York Times

Not long ago, German officials were locked in agonizing debates over which industries should be cut off if the country found itself running out of natural gas. Today, with storage facilities almost full to the brim and prices dropping sharply, Europe’s energy crisis is feeling somewhat less urgent. – Washington Post

The European Union is in the midst of yet another goodwill trip through the Western Balkans to drum up support for the bloc and to make sure that Europe’s historical tinderbox is not about to pick the side of hostile Russia or strategic rival China in the world of geopolitics. – Associated Press

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has welcomed a move by the United States to impose sanctions on several Moldovans and Russians over “systemic corruption” and their efforts to influence elections in Moldova. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Chris Giles writes: No one should feel delighted they are paying more for energy this winter, but the price signal has done its job. It has forced Europe to adapt. Advanced capitalist economies are remarkably successful in this regard. – Financial Times

Michael Miklaucic writes: This is a time for NATO to show solidarity and support bold leadership. Finland’s decision to join the alliance is historic and the entire nation should celebrate — as should all NATO members. Marin has the fortitude to make tough decisions, and to stand up to and face down the bully in the Kremlin. Throughout the West, the guardians of the rules-based world order, good leadership is deeply needed. To show humanity and share joy with friends and colleagues while steering the ship of state through tumultuous seas is good leadership worthy of a “Master and Commander.”  – The Hill

Natia Seskuria writes: For the first time, Tbilisi could feasibly convince the international community to include the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states as a sanctionable offense — as no such sanctions were ultimately imposed on Russia back in 2008. A triggering mechanism for such financial penalties related to an illegal recognition of Georgia’s two breakaway territories can and should be included in the broader sanctions package that the Western countries have been imposing as a response to the war in Ukraine. – Middle East Institute 

Lionel Laurent writes: And the two sides should work to understand each other’s limits. Scholz and his coalition are untested and hesitant, increasing the temptation to play to a domestic audience; Macron is bogged down in parliamentary gridlock at home, making Germany a tempting punching bag. The current discontent feels like more than a momentary blip, but France and Germany should also recognize this is not the time to give Putin reasons to be cheerful. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans are stranded in Mexico and Central America after U.S. officials applied a Trump-era policy to deter a deluge in illegal border crossings by Venezuelan migrants that for months had vexed the Biden administration. – Wall Street Journal

Canada has sent officials to Haiti to assess the Caribbean nation’s humanitarian and security crisis, saying it will not sit by idly while gangs threaten women and children there. – Reuters

The Canadian delegation is due to assess options “to support Haitian people in resolving the humanitarian and security crises” facing the impoverished country and “restore access to essential goods and services,” in consultation with regional partners the United Nations, the CARICOM Caribbean grouping and others, a statement said. – Agence France-Presse

At a time when Cuba is urging the Biden administration to ease U.S. sanctions that it says stifle hurricane recovery efforts, Russian oil has flooded into the island, providing relief to debilitating blackouts. – Associated Press

Michael Stott writes: Authoritarian governments in Venezuela or Cuba are fair game. But rather than painting every opponent as a future Hugo Chávez or Fidel Castro, Latin America’s right would be rewarded at the polls if it spoke more about improving the lot of the poor — many of whose lives already look uncomfortably similar to those in Venezuela. – Financial Times

Cybersecurity

The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday sanctioned a pair of Iranian intelligence officials and a school they founded as part of the U.S. government response to the “brutal ongoing crackdown on nationwide protests in Iran,” the agency said. – CyberScoop

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency released long-awaited performance goals aimed at setting baseline vital practices for critical infrastructure. The agency created the voluntary goals to broadly apply across all 16 critical infrastructure sectors with a particular focus on the smaller organizations that lack the resources for a robust cybersecurity plan. – CyberScoop

The United States and European Union are conducting a campaign of cyber “sabotage” against Russia, the country’s deputy foreign minister Oleg Syromolotov claimed on Thursday. – The Record

Bilyana Lilly writes: Considering the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats against the West, it is unlikely that Moscow will waive an opportunity to undermine the U.S. during this election season. A combination of cyber operations, more disruptive cyberattacks in coordination with alleged hacktivists and disinformation spread through official accounts are among the activities Russia could aim at the U.S. – CyberScoop