Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The Trump administration plans a pre-election volley of sanctions against Iran intended in part to fortify its pressure campaign against any future effort to unwind it, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s foreign ministry on Saturday described a U.S.-brokered Sudan-Israel deal to normalise ties as “phoney” and accused Khartoum of paying a ransom in return for Washington removing it from a list of state sponsors of terrorism. – Reuters

The rhetorical about-face is typical of Iranian leaders’ inconsistent response to the pandemic that many see as helping to fuel the virus’ spread. Experts say the mixed messages reflect the fact that the leadership has little room to impose severe restrictions that would damage an already fragile economy — and thus stoke public anger. – Associated Press

Mehdi Khalaji writes: Today, however, a new sense of urgency among Iran’s political elite is undeniable as the country faces a major crisis. […]The Supreme Leader’s demise could produce chaos so great as to jeopardize the stability of the political system. This would hardly mark the crowning achievement Khamenei seeks to achieve with America’s next president, but rather the failure of his life’s work. – Washington Institute

Ilan A. Berman writes: Indeed, the “maximum pressure” policy deployed by the Trump White House over the past two years has been designed in large part to reverse those gains. Now, America’s Iran policy is once again approaching a critical crossroads. The path that Washington ultimately embraces – further isolation of the Iranian regime, or its rehabilitation – will go a long way toward determining the future complexion of the Middle East. – American Foreign Policy Council

Barry Rosen writes: While Nasrin battles for her health, her husband, Reza Khandan, fights in an inexorable battle against a corrupt system of injustice for his beloved to return home. For Nasrin and the Iranian men and women from all walks of life similarly unjustly imprisoned, we have a responsibility to lift their voices when they cannot speak themselves, and to demand their release. – United Against Nuclear Iran

Syria

Hundreds of mourners including Syria’s religious affairs minister attended a funeral in Damascus on Friday for the state’s top Muslim cleric, who was killed in a bombing near the capital. – Reuters

Iran has delivered several gasoline and crude oil shipments to Syria, easing a near two-month gasoline shortage aggravated by tougher U.S. sanctions, shippers, port officials and traders said. – Reuters

Amos Harel writes: The Israeli army is seeing, more than in the past, cracks in the three-way alliance of interests between the regime and its two major patrons, Russia and Iran. […]Iran, more so than Hezbollah, has open accounts with the United States and Israel. Surprises are always possible but less than two weeks before the presidential election in the United States, it appears that Iran – like the rest of the countries in the region – prefers to wait for the results there. – Haaretz

Israel

Israel and Sudan agreed to normalize ties in a U.S.-brokered deal on Friday, the White House said, ending decades of hostility as one of Africa’s largest countries joined a broader diplomatic realignment in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet on Sunday approved Israel’s normalisation accord with Bahrain, which now awaits parliamentary ratification, a cabinet statement said. – Reuters

Israel said on Friday it will not oppose U.S. sales of “specific weapons systems” to the United Arab Emirates, in an apparent reference to the F-35 warplanes sought by Abu Dhabi. – Reuters

Thousands of Sudanese nationals seeking asylum in Israel have said they are monitoring the development of the newly-announced normalization agreement and would be willing to return to their country if the “peace” between the two states ends up being “real.” – Ynet

Senior defense officials have voiced their concern on Sunday regarding a deal that would see the U.S. sell advanced F-35 stealth jets to Saudi Arabia as part of a potential normalization agreement with Israel. – Ynet

Editorial: The U.S. establishment brought a sentimental approach to Arab-Israeli peace; these deals are the most concrete vindication of Mr. Trump’s foreign-policy realism. The 2020 election won’t be decided on foreign policy. But if Mr. Trump loses, a Biden Administration is less likely to be weighed down by a fractured Mideast. That would be a great asset as the U.S. confronts a growing challenge from China. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: As the US heads to a critical election next week, we urge the new administration – whether under Trump or Biden – to continue pursuing the path of peace between Israel and Arab states. Perhaps the UAE, Bahrain and now Sudan can help to get the Palestinian leadership back to the negotiating table with Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Yuval Karni writes: Netanyahu marketed the deal with the UAE as “peace in exchange for peace.” Sure, Israel did not have to make any territorial concessions, but it paid a price, both politically and security-wise. First of all, Netanyahu forfeited his years-long vision of applying Israeli sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, giving up on a not only political asset, but also on one of his strongest campaign promises. Secondly, the country forfeited its strategic superiority in the region and allowed an Arab nation to be on the same technological footing as Israel. – Ynet

Lebanon

Lebanon’s top intelligence official has vowed to continue his effort to secure freedom for six Americans missing in Syria despite no evidence that the Trump administration’s outreach to President Bashar al-Assad has produced results. – Washington Post

Lebanon’s top Christian cleric urged Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri on Sunday to avoid back-door deals and to quickly form a new government that will start lifting the country out of financial crisis. – Reuters

Hassan Mneimneh writes: If many private and public courageous voices highlight reason and national interests in challenging the ideological intimidation sought by the pro-Iran media machine, Lebanon could become free from Iran and choose the peaceful path. And by choosing to work with other Arab states in renegotiating the role of Israel, Lebanon could in turn be supported in any attempts to return to a more vibrant and open society, steering it away from the collapse to which Hezbollah has otherwise doomed it. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

President Trump said Friday he expects Saudi Arabia to open diplomatic ties with Israel soon, following the announcement that Sudan had agreed to normalize relations with the Jewish state. – The Hill

Lina al-Hathloul writes: As long as women inside of Saudi Arabia cannot safely speak, it is the role of the international community to raise its voice on their behalf. Several key delegates have already refused to attend the G-20 — now a virtual summit ― on the grounds that the conference represents grand-scale hypocrisy against the backdrop of the kingdom’s inexcusable human rights record.  […]Whether by calling for the release of human rights defenders such as my sister, or bravely and publicly speaking the truth about the reality of women inside the kingdom, the G-20 should be a moment for both men and women to speak out. – Washington Post

Smadar Perry writes: Despite all the rumors and hopes of headway regarding Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizing relations, a poll conducted in the kingdom several days ago sheds some light on the reality of the situation. According to the survey, only 9% of Saudis support normalizing relations with Israel, 3% said they do not know and the rest – an overwhelming majority – said they do not support it. – Ynet

Middle East & North Africa

Sudan on Friday became the latest nation to make peace with Israel, after reaching a deal with the Trump administration ending the African nation’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. The agreement to normalize relations further shifts the balance of power in the Middle East and northern Africa away from Iran. – Wall Street Journal

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Friday he welcomed joint efforts by Sudan, the United States and Israel to normalise ties between Tel Aviv and Khartoum. – Reuters

Calls to boycott French goods are growing in the Arab world and beyond, after President Emmanuel Macron criticised Islamists and vowed not to “give up cartoons” depicting the Prophet Mohammed. – Agence France-Presse

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Should the Muslim Brotherhood, or some other radical government, once again seize power in Egypt, the absence of America’s small but stabilizing presence in the Sinai might encourage Egypt to rupture relations with Israel and increase its force levels in the Sinai. The prospect of a recurrence of hostilities between the two states would then become very real. And ending what is currently a small American investment in peace could result in America once again being drawn into another unwanted Middle East war. – The Hill

Danielle Pletka writes: In short, while a rekindling of the Democratic love affair with Tehran promises rough seas ahead in the Middle East, the larger problem may be that both a Trump second term or a Biden administration will likely wash their hands of the region, feeling that the mission as they defined it has been accomplished. – The Dispatch

Afghanistan

Even as Taliban delegates continue to nominally participate in peace talks with Afghan leaders in Qatar, the insurgents have shown no intention of reducing violence. – Washington Post

A suicide bombing at an education centre in Afghanistan’s capital Kabul killed 24 people including teenage students and wounded dozens more on Saturday, officials said. – Reuters

Afghan security forces have killed Abu Muhsin al-Masri, a senior al Qaeda leader who was on the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Most Wanted Terrorists list, Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) said in a tweet late on Saturday. – Reuters

Joseph J. Collins writes: Afghanistan once again stands at a crossroads. The next U.S. president will decide whether to increase support for Kabul, or withdraw all of our troops and leave Afghan forces to fight on alone against the Taliban and its ugly foreign backers, all of whom would delight in our failure there. A precipitous exit from Afghanistan is not in America’s interests. – The Hill

Asia

Thai demonstrators said on Sunday they would petition Germany to investigate King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s use of his powers while he has been staying in the European country, as thousands of people again took to the streets of Bangkok. – Reuters

The U.S. national security adviser said on Friday the U.S Coast Guard was basing Enhanced Response Cutters in the western Pacific for maritime security missions, citing illegal fishing and harassment of vessels by China. – Reuters

North Korea has warned its citizens to stay indoors, saying seasonal yellow dust blowing in from China might carry the new coronavirus into the country. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department’s approval of the potential sales of air- and ground-launched, long-range land-attack missiles is a marked departure from previous American policy of only selling so-called defensive weapons to Taiwan. – Defense News

The United States is stepping up its military presence and activity in and around the small island nation of Palau in the Philippine Sea, a strategic location coveted by Pentagon planners as the US looks to expand its footprint in the region. – Breaking Defense

The shift is here to stay: Berger clamped a non-disclosure requirement on participants in the wargames that led to the rethinking and, just last week, cancelled the “Metropolis II” exercise testing tactics the Marines would adopt to fight in cities. Instead, the service will focus on building a new Marine Littoral Regiment (an MLR) that would allow it to operate on small atolls and islands against a projected threat in the Pacific — read: China. – Business Insider

Zack Cooper and Hal Brands write: Japanese leaders have shown over the last few years that they can often be more strategic and reliable than their American counterparts. To maximize the value of the world’s most important bilateral alliance, the U.S. needs to embrace this larger concept of burden-sharing — and view Japan not as the junior partner it once was but as the equal ally it has become. – Nikkei Asian Review

Hiroyuki Suzuki writes: Amid growing competition between the United States and China, middle power countries, especially Japan, should play important roles in shaping the foundation for stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. The leadership role of the United States remains critically important, but it is necessary to build a network of middle powers, including Japan, Australia, India, and Indonesia, rather than a bipolar or unipolar Indo-Pacific subject to Chinese coercion. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek writes: Trust should be won back. Vice-President Biden has said that support for democracy abroad would undergird his global strategy. Regardless of who wins the US presidency, the upcoming administration should consider piggybacking off EU programs to engage with Kyrgyz democratic development. Investing in Kyrgyz democracy makes sense. Kyrgyzstan, after all, borders Xinjiang, China’s most restive region. Placing a long-term bet on democracy in Kyrgyzstan is morally sound and strategically foresighted. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Mark Galeotti writes: Ultimately, Georgia is in an unenviable strategic position so long as the Kremlin retains its neo-imperial attitudes towards its so-called ‘Near Abroad,’ something likely to persist while President Vladimir Putin remains in power. It is thus crucial not just that it maintains a sustained, determined yet also imaginative approach to resisting Moscow’s pressure, but also that its Western partners explore the ways they can help – and in the process also help themselves. – Middle East Institute

Russia

The United States on Friday imposed economic sanctions against a Russian government research organization that was responsible for a potentially deadly cyberattack on a Saudi petrochemical facility in 2017. – New York Times

The Kremlin said on Friday it regretted that U.S. election campaigns seem like competitions for candidates to show how much they dislike Russia, but that it was only up to American voters to pick a new president on Nov. 3. – Reuters

Russia’s deputy foreign minister said on Friday that Moscow and Washington were still not close to reaching an agreement over the New START arms control treaty, the RIA news agency reported. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that he saw nothing criminal in Hunter Biden’s past business ties with Ukraine or Russia, marking out his disagreement with one of Donald Trump’s attack lines in the US presidential election. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Monday proposed that Russia and the United States agree not to deploy certain missiles in Europe and introduce mutual verification measures following the demise of the INF nuclear arms control treaty. – Reuters

President Trump is “very, very close” to securing a nuclear deal with Russia involving a freeze on warheads for a year, according to Trump’s arms control envoy. – New York Post

Ignat Solzhenitsyn writes: If Western policy makers’ objective remains to bring Russia into the community of free nations, they might heed Solzhenitsyn’s plea and engage with Russia equitably, according to the virtues or failings of current policy, rather than judge her reflexively by a fictitious, maleficent historical narrative that bars any path forward. – Wall Street Journal

Peter Brookes writes: Russia’s involvement with and use of CWs for offensive purposes over the past two decades is deeply troubling and undermines the well-established international norms, law, and agreements against their use as enshrined in treaties, such as the CWC. If the international response to Russia’s acts is not swift and stern, a failure to address growing concerns about Russia’s bad behavior on CWs will assuredly only serve to encourage additional Russian bad behavior, not only with chemical weapons, but in other areas as well. – Heritage Foundation

Ekaterine Meiering-Mikadze writes: As attention drifts, Europeans and Americans are well-advised to keep an eye on the larger picture. One of the shortcomings in Western policy over the last two decades has been a failure to hold Russian actions to account. When the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2014, Western capitals didn’t adequately link Russia’s aggression in Ukraine with previous aggressions in Georgia, nor did they call out these incidents as parts of an underlying strategy of aggression rather than separate events. – Middle East Institute

Africa

The military operation at Lekki Toll Gate appears to have deepened the rifts between the government and many of those governed in Africa’s largest oil producer. The street protests against police brutality have dissipated and given way to widespread looting and vandalism. – Wall Street Journal

Ethiopia accused President Trump on Saturday of “incitement of war” between Addis Ababa and Cairo, a day after Trump said Egypt will “blow up” a contentious Ethiopian dam. – Washington Post

Gunmen stormed a school in Cameroon on Saturday and opened fire indiscriminately, killing at least six children and wounding about eight more in a region where separatist insurgents operate, officials and parents said. – Reuters

Prominent political factions in Sudan have rejected a deal brokered with the help of the United States to take steps to normalise ties with Israel. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund on Friday said U.S. government plans to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism would clear away one of the hurdles facing the heavily indebted African country as it seeks debt relief. – Reuters

A Rwandan court extended the detention of “Hotel Rwanda” hero Paul Rusesabagina on Friday pending trial on terrorism charges and denied him bail, the judge hearing the case said. – Reuters

An Israeli delegation will travel to Sudan in coming days after the two countries agreed to take steps to normalise ties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday. – Reuters

Guinea’s president, Alpha Condé, has won a controversial third term with 59.49% of the vote, the National Independent Electoral Commission declared on Saturday. – The Guardian

Sudanese protesters marching in Khartoum set the Israeli flag on fire on Wednesday, expressing their rejection of normalizing relations with Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Chinese lenders have lent money to almost every country on the continent and eight have borrowed more than $5bn apiece this century. But Beijing’s involvement in a debt service suspension initiative from the G20 group of the world’s largest economies has been slow. – Financial Times

Latin America

After years of jail and house arrest, Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López, a prominent leader in the movement to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime, is in Spain reunited with his family after having fled his homeland in what his aides called a daring escape. – Wall Street Journal

Chileans voted overwhelmingly to change their dictatorship-era constitution in a referendum on Sunday, beginning a process that could upend the political landscape in one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations amid a social backlash against the status quo. – Wall Street Journal

Colombian security forces have killed a top National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel commander known best by his nom de guerre Uriel, during an operation in the coastal Pacific province of Choco, President Ivan Duque said on Sunday. – Reuters

Bolivian former President Evo Morales has left Argentina on a flight traveling to Venezuela, Argentine state news agency Telam reported on Friday, which would come in the wake of his socialist party’s election win in Bolivia. – Reuters

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Full-blown censorship is associated with totalitarian regimes using military enforcement. But dive into the tragedy of tyranny in the Americas and you often find, long before the consolidation of power, insidious support from public intellectuals for controlling thought and speech. Over and over again their role in the “revolution” has been to define virtue and justice, and unleash the mob to denounce and condemn the unrepentant. – Wall Street Journal

Evan Ellis writes: Latin American governments may be reluctant to jeopardize trade, loans, and investment from the PRC by demanding it take responsibility for its fishing fleet. Yet if the Chinese government does nothing as boats under its flag pillage Latin America, how can the region trust any Chinese company, including those extracting the region’s petroleum and mineral wealth, signing secret MOUs (memorandums of understanding) with its politicians, or building the communication and surveillance infrastructure that carries the personal data of its leaders and citizens? – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Defense

The U.S. Army’s tactical network science and technology arm made major breakthroughs at a recent experiment on several pieces of advanced technologies that will likely be part of the service’s next set of new network tools. – C4ISRNET

John Lauder, Frank Klotz and William Courtney write: NASA is pursuing Artemis Accords with international partners “to create a safe and transparent environment” in space, particularly as human space exploration and possible economic activities venture beyond Earth orbit. Such multilateral cooperative efforts could help set a foundation for the adoption of additional transparency and confidence measures. They may offer realistic hope of reducing risks and protecting freedom of access to space for all nations. – The Hill

William D. Hartung and Ben Freeman writes: Thankfully, although he has expressed skepticism, Chairman Smith is open to further discussion on how much Pentagon spending is needed to protect us, as he noted in a recent meeting with the organization Win Without War. Let the discussion begin. – The Hill

Trump Administration

Joe Biden leaned heavily on a letter from former U.S. intelligence and defense officials in Thursday night’s debate to argue that Russia orchestrated a disinformation operation allegedly involving damaging information obtained from his son’s laptop that was promulgated by President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudolph W. Giuliani. – Washington Post

A federal judge on Friday ordered prosecutors in the Michael Flynn case to swear under penalty of perjury to the accuracy of evidence they had filed after a former FBI agent accused prosecutors of altering documents. – The Hill

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Elizabeth Harrington sparred with CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour over claims that Hunter Biden’s emails are part of a Russian disinformation plot. – Washington Examiner