Fdd's overnight brief

October 24, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israel launched a wave of airstrikes this week across Lebanon targeting at least 10 branches of al-Qard al-Hasan, a financial institution linked to the Hezbollah militant group. – Washington Post

Palestinian militant group Hamas wants Russia to push Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to begin negotiations on a national unity government for post-war Gaza, a senior Hamas official told the RIA state news agency after talks in Moscow. – Reuters

Donald Trump boasted on Wednesday of almost daily conversations with Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that he has a very good relationship with the Israeli prime minister. – Agence France-Presse

The IAF struck over 160 Hezbollah terror targets in Lebanon over the past day, the military reported on Thursday morning in a list of strategic successes including the apprehension of 200 terrorists from the Gaza Strip. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF announced on Wednesday that six journalists actively working for Al Jazeera were members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). – Jerusalem Post

Mousa Abu Marzouk, deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, announced that the group is ready to prioritize the release of two Russian nationals held in Gaza, Alexandre Troufanov and Maxin Herkin, in a potential future deal with Israel, during an interview with the Kremlin-backed media outlet RIA Novosti, on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: All of this cries out for investigation. If the whistleblower is correct, it would throw into question Mr. Khan’s probity, the ICC’s commitment to fair process, and whether nonprofessional factors were considered in requesting the arrest warrants. This places the court’s targeting of Israel under a cloud. Will the ICC rubber stamp the arrest warrants, anyway? Why follow Mr. Khan into the abyss? – Wall Street Journal

Andreas Kluth writes: For their part, the judges now deciding on Khan’s two remaining applications should of course hew to the evidence, but also be aware that the optics of seeking only two live individuals, both Israeli, look bad. Meanwhile, as the rest of us await the ICC’s decision, we can at least take comfort that Sinwar has, in every way but the legal, already met a just end. – Bloomberg

Asaf Romirowsky writes: UNRWA ought to die with Sinwar. Its ethos of entitlement and promotion of the Palestinian identity as permanent refugees — a problem to be resolved only with the destruction of Israel — cannot be allowed to continue. Anyone committed to ending the war in Gaza should demand, first and foremost, an end to the UNRWA as well. – The Hill

Gil Troy writes: In short, we, who want this war to end yesterday, must keep fighting tomorrow and tomorrow, until the aggressors – Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran – cave in. Only then, once Israel is secured, will those Palestinians who actually want “dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination” – rather than Israel’s destruction – have a shot at making progress, too. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

An Iranian hacking group is actively scouting U.S. election-related websites and American media outlets as Election Day nears, with activity suggesting preparations for more “direct influence operations,” according to a Microsoft blog published on Wednesday. – Reuters

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told Air Force crews on Wednesday that after striking in Iran, the world will understand Israel’s might and its enemies will learn a lesson, according to a video and an X post published by his office. – Reuters

Ariel Kogan writes: Iran sees Azerbaijan first and foremost as a friend of its archenemy — Israel. This is why Iran has threatened to strike Azerbaijan’s oil refineries in retaliation for potential Israeli military action against Iranian oil fields. It is odd how the interests of Iran and France converge in different regions. Maybe there is a tangible likeness in their visions and strategies. Two sides of the malevolent colonizer paradigm, constantly searching for ways to exploit those they deem “less than.” – Algemeiner

Ilan Berman writes: In the Fall of 2023, Iranians from all walks of life took to the streets to vent their rage at their country’s ruling clerical regime. The immediate cause for their anger was the September 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of regime security forces for the crime of improperly wearing her Islamic headscarf, or hijab. Quickly, however, what began as grassroots unrest over regime brutality transformed into something more: a fundamental rejection of the Islamic Republic’s religious system of government. And as the protests went on, hopes rose in the West that they might, at long last, coalesce into a real challenge to the country’s four-plus decades of draconian clerical rule. American Foreign Policy Council

Mohammadreza Giveh writes: This uniquely positions SPND at the highest level of confidentiality, making it accessible only to a few of the highest-ranking regime officials. This is likely to give the organization greater versatility and access to resources, allowing greater freedom to act upon the regime’s leadership orders with a minimized risk of detection. If the Iranian regime decides to build nuclear weapons, SPND is better situated to carry out that order effectively and secretly. – Institute for Science and International Security

Russia & Ukraine

A former deputy Palm Beach County sheriff who fled to Moscow and became one of the Kremlin’s most prolific propagandists is working directly with Russian military intelligence to pump out deepfakes and circulate misinformation that targets Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, according to Russian documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

With the hosting of the annual BRICS summit fortuitously falling on Russia’s shoulders this year, President Vladimir Putin has been handed an opportunity to flaunt his nation’s standing on the world stage, despite Western efforts to ostracize him since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Post

Ukraine’s prosecutor general has resigned amid a draft-dodging scandal in which hundreds of officials, including prosecutors, are accused of obtaining fake disability certificates that allowed them to avoid military service. – New York Times

The Russian Foreign Ministry was targeted by a severe cyber attack on Wednesday, coinciding with the major BRICS summit taking place in the country, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. – Reuters

The U.S. on Wednesday finalized its $20 billion portion of a long-awaited $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets, announcing plans to start making funds available by year-end for economic and military aid. – Reuters

A Russian man who supported his country’s war in Ukraine has been charged with murder over the fatal stabbing in Germany earlier this year of two wounded Ukrainian soldiers who were recovering from operations there, prosecutors said Wednesday. – Associated Press

George Monastiriakos writes: The Russian-led “Axis of Evil” is unfortunately winning. It will continue sticking together for the foreseeable future. The West must do the same and more because watching from the sidelines as the world’s most repressive regimes destroy Ukraine is pathetic.  Sometimes, leadership is about defeating your enemies. Other times, it’s about helping your friends in their time of need. So do both by inviting Ukraine to join NATO and winning the peace in Europe. – The Hill

Kseniya Kirillova writes: Once in the army, they may die in combat, or from violence by fellow soldiers or simply commit other crimes that are increasingly common among the ranks. From January to June 2024 alone, Russian garrison courts sentenced nearly 3,000 servicemen to prison terms, three and a half times more than the first half of 2023. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Hezbollah

After suffering a series of punishing blows by Israel, Hezbollah is fighting back, launching ambushes on Israeli troops in Lebanon and ratcheting up drone and missile strikes deeper into Israel. – Wall Street Journal

Hashem Safieddine, the top Hezbollah official widely expected to succeed slain secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli attack, the group said Wednesday. – Reuters

Hezbollah’s operations room said on Wednesday its fighters had killed more than 70 Israeli troops in its clashes with Israeli forces, updating from a statement last week saying 55 were killed. – Reuters

Turkey

Several people were killed in a suspected terrorist attack at a major defense facility near the Turkish capital, according to authorities. – Wall Street Journal

But one guest among the dozens of leaders present was not like the others. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who arrived in the Russian city of Kazan on Wednesday, was the only leader of a NATO country to take part in the meetings, known as the BRICS summit. – New York Times

Turkey has hit outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in northern Iraq and northern Syria after a deadly attack on an aviation site in Ankara, the Defence Ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Relations between the long-serving Turkish and Russian presidents are sometimes tense, but they have both rebuffed U.S. influence and in differing ways have shaped military conflicts from the South Caucasus to Syria and North Africa. – Reuters

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is stepping up its criticism of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, calling on the administration to publicly condemn Erdoğan’s provocative comments and actions against Israel. – Jewish Insider

Lebanon

An Israeli strike on Wednesday night destroyed an office used by the pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen broadcaster, a Lebanese security source told Reuters. – Reuters

French organizers hope the Paris conference, which gathered over 70 nations and international organizations, will raise enough money to provide the $426 million in humanitarian aid the United Nations says is urgently needed. AP

 

Middle East & North Africa

U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday and believed that an agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could be reached before the end of the year. – Reuters

Iraqi-led strikes and raids killed at least seven Islamic State operatives in Iraq, U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday, a day after Baghdad reported the militant group’s commander for Iraq had been killed in a military operation. – Reuters

Egypt said it’s working with the International Monetary Fund on reviewing the targets and timetable for its $8 billion loan program against a backdrop of regional upheaval. – Bloomberg

Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, the mother of Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, praised slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a post on X shortly after Sinwar was killed by Israeli forces operating in Gaza. – Jewish Insider

Jonathan Campbell-James writes: Despite the efforts being made to improve the effectiveness of coastal security, challenges remain. Detection of smaller craft at sea remains an issue, as does the Navy and Coast Guard’s perennial problem of identifying bad actors within a mass of anonymous and innocent sea traffic. The Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea are busy shipping lanes, and the Omanis are actively seeking ways to improve their ability to separate friend from foe. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

The U.S. government has evidence that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia receiving training, senior Biden administration officials said Wednesday, a development they said could have global implications and make those troops “legitimate military targets” in Ukraine should they enter the ongoing war there. – Washington Post

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited missile bases to examine their readiness to undertake actions of “strategic deterrence”, while calling U.S. nuclear capabilities a growing threat to the country, state media reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Polish President Andrzej Duda on Thursday condemned North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia for its war against Ukraine as a global security threat, Yoon’s office said. – Reuters

Trash carried by a North Korean balloon fell on the presidential compound in central Seoul on Thursday, officials said, the second such case in recent months that raise concerns about the vulnerability of key South Korean sites during potential North Korean aggression. – Associated Press

China

Earlier this month, China and North Korea hailed their 75 years of diplomatic relations by reaffirming ties that they once described as being close as “lips and teeth.” But North Korea’s decision to dispatch thousands of troops to Russia to fight Ukraine, revealed this week by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, will test those bonds like never before. – New York Times

China’s President Xi Jinping said at the BRICS summit that an early ceasefire and an end to the war in Gaza are key to easing regional tensions, Chinese state media Xinhua reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

China’s state security ministry said foreign spy intelligence agencies have been trying to steal secrets from the country’s space programme as the arms race in space intensifies and emerges as a new “battlefield for military struggle”. – Reuters

The U.S.-China tech war is all but certain to heat up no matter whether Republican Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, with the Democrat likely to come out with targeted new rules and Trump a blunter approach. – Reuters

China’s commerce ministry on Thursday expressed opposition to the U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms involved in making and shipping attack drones for Russia. – Reuters

The Chinese military has continued to build out its nuclear arsenal in what a new report from the Defense Intelligence Agency characterized as “the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization … in history.” – Washington Examiner

Michael Rubin writes: Strategically, China is concerned by not only India’s rise but also its growing ties with the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Japan. By sparking a crisis, China drives a wedge between India and a future Beijing dreads. No one but Canada’s prime minister knows his true motivation, but it is now clear: China could not hope for a better ally than Justin Trudeau. – Washington Examiner

South Asia

Lawrence Bishnoi, a 31-year-old vegetarian with a handlebar mustache who authorities say controls a violent gang from his high-security prison cell in India, is at the center of a diplomatic brawl between Canada and India. – Wall Street Journal

For most of the three years since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, their erasure of women’s rights appeared to be setting them on course for near-total isolation in the world. – New York Times

Bangladesh’s interim government has officially banned the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), the student wing of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League party, declaring it a “terrorist organisation”. – Reuters

Over 60 Democratic lawmakers from the U.S. House of Representatives wrote to President Joe Biden on Wednesday, urging him to use Washington’s leverage with Pakistan to secure the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. – Reuters

Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday approved the selection of the next chief justice, who was chosen through a new process that the government’s opponents say is designed to undermine judicial independence. – Reuters

Pakistani security forces killed nine insurgents in a shootout overnight in a former stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban in the volatile northwestern region that borders Afghanistan, the military said Thursday. – Associated Press

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Wednesday on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, in their first bilateral meeting in five years. – Associated Press

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said BRICS shouldn’t project itself as an alternative to global organizations, even as founding members like Russia and China try to expand the group to challenge the US-led global order. – Bloomberg

Two people have been arrested in Sri Lanka amid terror threats against Israelis in Arugam Bay area and other beaches in the island’s south and west, local media reported Thursday. – Agence France Presse

Sadanand Dhume writes: Nobody can blame ordinary Indians—including Sikhs, the vast majority of whom rejected the Khalistan movement decades ago—for finding overseas Khalistani antics revolting. But this doesn’t change the fact that free speech is a fundamental value in the West. “We are not going to stop being free speech countries,” Mr. Mileswki says. “India can’t go around sending hit squads to the West.” – Wall Street Journal

Asia

A boat carrying about 140 Rohingya refugees has been stranded miles off the coast of Indonesia for over a week, banned from settling there as Indonesian communities increasingly shun Rohingya refugees arriving by sea. – New York Times

Tropical Storm Trami drenched the Philippines with torrential rain on Wednesday, causing widespread flooding and forcing thousands of people to evacuate from their homes. – New York Times

New Zealand is looking to return to operation one of its idled offshore patrol vessels after a specialist dive ship sank this month, a defence spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters

An armed group fighting Myanmar’s ruling military said it has taken control of a mining hub that is a major supplier of rare earth oxides to China, likely disrupting shipments of elements used in clean energy and other technologies. – Reuters

Britain’s King Charles and Queen Camilla flew into Samoa late on Wednesday, for a visit during which the monarch will be offered the title of high chief and attend a summit of Commonwealth nations, following a six-day tour of Australia. – Reuters

Europe

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday dismissed claims by Donald Trump’s campaign team that the ruling British Labour Party was committing “blatant foreign interference” in the U.S. presidential election. – Washington Post

Finland is experiencing suspicious acts of sabotage and disruption and believes Russia is engaged in broad-ranging influence operations against it and other European countries, Finland’s Minister of Interior Lulu Ranne said. – Reuters

The founder of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, doubled down on Wednesday on a pledge to ban opposition parties should his party clinch victory in a crucial parliamentary election this weekend. – Reuters

The European Union on Wednesday urged countries attending the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, to ask President Vladimir Putin to end Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – Reuters

Romania’s ruling leftist Social Democrats would get most votes in a Dec. 1 parliamentary election, with a far right opposition party leapfrogging the centre-right Liberals into second place, a survey showed on Wednesday. – Reuters

An Albanian court on Wednesday ruled that former President Ilir Meta should stay in custody while the left-wing Freedom Party leader faces allegations of corruption, money laundering and the hiding of personal income and property. – Associated Press

Lawmakers in Belarus on Wednesday set the next presidential election for Jan. 26, a vote almost certain to extend the three-decade rule of authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has suppressed all political dissent. – Associated Press

A far-left political party in Spain has threatened to withhold its crucial support for next year’s budget unless the government breaks diplomatic relations with Israel among other actions, marking the latest effort by Madrid to isolate the Jewish state over the past year. – Algemeiner

Astrid Chevreuil writes: There should be greater visibility regarding the complementary nature of the French contribution, emphasizing that it is not a replacement for U.S. security guarantees in Europe. Once objectives, concrete means, and governance structures are clarified—which will take time—the emergence of a genuine European strategic culture could pave the way for a steady contribution to the security of Europe. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

A plane downed in Sudan’s North Darfur state had Russian crew members and was being used by the army to resupply the besieged city of al-Fashir, according to the opposing faction and documents it said were found in the wreckage. – Reuters

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has reshuffled his 45-member cabinet, naming seven new ministers, sacking five and reassigning 10 others to new portfolios, a spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Kenya has fulfilled all targets mandated by the International Monetary Fund in a review of its loan programme, the country’s central bank governor told Reuters on Wednesday, and expects to continue its engagement with the global lender after April. – Reuters

Nigeria’s cabinet has approved borrowing roughly $618 million from a group of financiers to buy six Italian-made M-346 attack jets and ammunition for the country’s air force, Information Minister Mohammed Idris said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Americas

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada faced the stiffest challenge to his leadership from fellow elected Liberal Party members on Wednesday during a closed-door meeting where he was urged to resign to avoid torpedoing the party’s chances in the next election. – New York Times

Canada will sharply lower the number of immigrants it allows into the country for the first time in years, marking a notable shift in policy for the government as it tries to remain in power. – Reuters

The U.S. Justice Department said on Wednesday that a Venezuelan television news network owner was charged in an alleged $1.2 billion money laundering scheme. – Reuters

Uruguayan center-left opposition leader Yamandu Orsi, whose political ambitions were galvanized by his experience growing up in a dictatorship, is the pollsters’ favorite to win the first round of the South American nation’s presidential election on Sunday. – Reuters

Protesters with automatic weapons targeted police and firefighters in the French Caribbean island of Martinique during a fresh round of violent demonstrations, the government said Wednesday. – Associated Press

United States

U.S. and Cypriot officials on Wednesday launched a strategic dialogue they said would bolster security and stability in a crisis-wracked region through initiatives including counterterrorism training of personnel from Middle Eastern countries and fighting sanctions evasion. – Associated Press

Weeks after an explosive CNN report detailed North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s history of posting racist and antisemitic content online, his Democratic opponent — the state’s Jewish attorney general — slammed Robinson, speaking personally about the impact the lieutenant governor has had on the state’s Jewish community. – Jewish Insider

Lee Hockstader writes: Whatever Biden’s achievements in rallying the Western alliance, Congress and the American people to Ukraine’s cause, the result — a war of attrition lasting nearly three years so far — is a poor facsimile of success. After the election, he will have a final shot to put Ukraine in the best possible position. He should use it. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

The Georgia secretary of state’s office said on Wednesday it had fended off a cyberattack aimed at crashing the website the state’s voters use to request absentee ballots. – Reuters

An army of Chinese-controlled social media bots is attempting to influence voters in Alabama, Texas and Tennessee, while denigrating U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, according to new research published on Wednesday by Microsoft – Reuters

The United Kingdom’s High Court greenlit a prominent dissident’s legal challenge against the Saudi Arabian government for allegedly deploying powerful zero-click spyware against him. – The Record

A notorious ransomware gang previously responsible for attacks on multiple hospitals has now claimed a new victim: disability nonprofit Easterseals. – The Record

An election clerk and voter have filed a lawsuit against the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) seeking to block the state from continuing to use its online election portal until it improves allegedly weak cybersecurity protections. – The Record

Defense

A United States nuclear-powered submarine was presented with the highest military unit award for obtaining “sensitive and unique” intelligence during a European deployment. – Newsweek

Millennium Space Systems will build six more satellites in the first phase of an effort to develop a constellation of missile-tracking satellites in medium Earth orbit, the Space Force announced Wednesday. – Defense News

Boeing’s ongoing problems with a crippling machinist strike and costly fixed-price development contracts left the company — and especially its defense sector — hemorrhaging cash in the third quarter of 2024. – Defense News

Against a backdrop where military personnel are operating at the nexus of multiple complex threats, command leaders for Army and Air Force units across Europe and Africa are facilitating new and creative joint exercises to push modernization and transformation alongside some of America’s closest military partners. – DefenseScoop