Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Three years into the global #MeToo movement, women who say they have been sexually assaulted are improbably going public in the Islamic Republic of Iran. – New York Times

“It doesn’t matter to Iran who will win the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. Whoever comes to power in America has no choice other than surrender to the Iranian nation,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told onlookers at a weekly cabinet session on Wednesday. – Radio Farda 

Under no circumstances will Ukraine accept money in exchange for covering up the truth, the head of the Ukrainian delegation in Tehran, Yevhenii Yenin, told Radio Farda. The delegation was in Iran for the second round of talks between Iran and Ukraine over the downing of a Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) passenger plane on January 8, 2020 over Tehran. – Radio Farda 

Iran has been turning up its cyber spigot on the Trump administration since it pulled the U.S. out of a multinational nuclear accord with Iran in May 2018. Since then, Treasury Department officers have been targeted by Iranian social engineering campaigns. While Iran’s cyber capabilities pale in comparison to Russia’s, they still aspire to “do to Trump what the Russians did to Hillary Clinton in 2016,” Prudhomme said. – Bloomberg 

Government analysts and private sector investigators were able to rapidly attribute to Iranian hackers a wave of thousands of threatening emails aimed at U.S. voters because of mistakes made in a video attached to some of the messages, according to four people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Iran summoned the Swiss envoy on Thursday to protest against what it called “baseless” U.S. claims that Tehran has tried to interfere with the 2020 presidential election in November. – Reuters

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has documented recent episodes in a new report, The Iranian Cyber Threat. It analyzes the regime’s cyber decision-making structure, modus operandi, and offers recommendations on how to combat this growing threat. – United Against Nuclear Iran

Iran is showcasing its capabilities with radar and the Bavar-373 air-defense system in nationwide drills. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The reports of the attack comes as Iran has received sanctions relief from an arms embargo and conducted air defense drills this week. Iran has been seeking to show off its new technological abilities, such as radar, in recent months. This is part of Tehran’s boast about its ability to get around US sanctions and develop indigenous capabilities. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

Turkey has withdrawn the soldiers who manned an outpost that had been surrounded by the Syrian pro-government forces for 14 months. – Jane’s 360 

The US Army said Thursday it carried out a drone strike against Al-Qaeda leaders in northwest Syria near the border, killing 14 jihadists, according to a war monitor. – Agence France-Presse

The Mufti of Damascus, Sheikh Mohammad Adnan Afyouni, was killed in a car bombing near Damascus on Thursday night, according to the Syrian state news agency SANA. – Jerusalem Post

Reem Salahi writes: While an ICJ ruling is unlikely to end Syria’s use of torture, it could open the door to additional efforts at finding accountability, including further attempts at a referral to the International Criminal Court or as evidence for cases brought under universal jurisdiction — where a national court can claim jurisdiction over a few types of international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, and torture regardless of where the alleged crime was committed or the nationality of the perpetrator. – Middle East Institute 

Iraq

U.S. authorities have seized two domain names linked to an Iran-backed terrorist group operating in Iraq, the Justice Department announced on Wednesday. – Fox News 

Iraq’s government is struggling to pay the salaries of the ever-swelling ranks of public sector employees amid an unprecedented liquidity crisis caused by low oil prices. September’s salaries were delayed for weeks, and October’s still haven’t been paid as the government tries to borrow once again from Iraq’s currency reserves. The crisis has fueled fears of instability ahead of mass demonstrations this week. – Associated Press 

Iraq’s prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, has warned that he is being forced into an impossible balancing act between the US and Iran, as he urged Europe to come to the aid of his country’s debt-ridden economy. – The Guardian 

On October 20, 2020, the daily Al-Arab, which is UAE-affiliated and based in London, published an op-ed by Lebanese writer Khairallah Khairallah in which he discussed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s ongoing series of visits to some of Europe’s capitals in relation to the recent security challenges his government is facing. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Munqith Dagher writes: The only peaceful way to avoid a scenario of violence and chaos in Iraq now is for the Iraqi government and the international community to provide Iraqi youth with real and convincing guarantees that the upcoming elections will be characterized by integrity and transparency in a departure from how they have been in the past. But with elections coming in less than a year, the window available for real work to be done appears to be gradually closing. – Washington Institute 

Michael Rubin writes: Certainly, there is a reason for Pompeo’s frustration. Iran and its proxies have historically attacked the very foundation of modern diplomacy. […]They have repeatedly targeted and tracked American diplomats. Those who say Washington should ignore Tehran forget the impossibility of diplomacy when those across the table are less interested in talking than in murdering those who would talk. – The National Interest

Gulf States

UAE media is speculating on Israel’s possible relationship with Sudan amid widespread rumors across the Middle East. An Israeli delegation visited Khartoum on Wednesday to discuss signing a peace agreement between the two countries, “informed Sudanese sources” told Al Ain News, an online news portal based in the UAE. – Jerusalem Post 

The 2017 blockade of Qatar came out of nowhere on a summer day in June, when Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates decided to cut ties with the tiny oil-rich Gulf state. It isn’t until three years later that a definitive account of the incident, which realigned the Middle East, is provided in the form of Qatar and the Gulf Crisis, by Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. – Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince enjoyed a near free pass under his personal relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, but the kingdom’s brazen young leader will have to tread more carefully should Democrats take the White House and reset strategic ties. – Reuters

A senior defense official on Thursday predicted Saudi Arabia would soon move to normalize ties with Israel. – Times of Israel

Korean Peninsula

A senior U.S. justice official accused China on Thursday of helping North Korea launder money from massive cyber thefts it has carried out to raise funds in the face of international sanctions. – Reuters 

North Korea this week announced an “Emergency Quarantine Law” which, per NK News, “hashes out different levels of disease-related red alerts and COVID-19 countermeasures, including detailed guidelines for handling patients who test “positive” for general infectious diseases.” – The National Interest 

Ri Sol-ju, the wife of North Korean premier Kim Jong-un, has not appeared in public in several months, and some in that country are beginning to ask questions about why that is. – The National Interest 

South Korea’s Navy has received its first training ship, built with a reduced radar signature, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration announced Oct. 20. The delivery came two years after the ship was launched in 2018 at a dockyard of Hyundai Heavy Industries in the South Korean coastal city of Ulsan. – Defense News 

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is “a thug’ who has benefited from President Trump’s diplomatic outreach, according to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. – Washington Examiner

Dylan Stent writes: Since democracy was installed in South Korea, inter-Korean relations have followed a trajectory of North Korea being the aggressor, conducting limited provocations, followed by Seoul managing, defusing, and re-grouping. South Korean elites have pursued high-level summits or talks, with limited objectives during periods of crisis. Such diplomacy has resulted in short-term cessations of escalations, while offering little in incentives to stop provocations in the long-term. – The National Interest 

Afghanistan

An Afghan airstrike killed 12 children in a religious school, local officials said Thursday, as government forces responded to a wave of Taliban attacks that have raised questions about Kabul’s ability to secure the country after a U.S. troop drawdown. – Wall Street Journal 

Mawlawi Ansari, 36, a burly, bearded cleric, has carved out his own fief in a conservative district of Herat, a western Afghanistan city renowned for art and culture. Residents say his enforcers have seized control of the district from the police, who rarely interfere with their vigorous enforcement of strict Shariah law. – New York Times

At least four civilians were killed in their homes by militant rocket fire in northern Afghanistan on Thursday, the country’s Ministry of Defense said. – Associated Press 

Asia

Thailand lifted an emergency decree issued last week that banned public gatherings, a reversal that embattled Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said was a good-faith gesture aimed at defusing protests against his administration. – Wall Street Journal 

The Trump administration has approved the sale of more than a billion dollars worth of advanced weaponry for Taiwan in a move that will enrage China and further exacerbate tensions between Washington and Beijing that have are already heated over issues such as trade, Tibet, Hong Kong and the South China Sea. – Associated Press 

Kyrgyzstan’s parliament has rushed through a bill to delay a rerun of parliamentary elections, set just a day earlier for December, until after constitutional reforms. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite visited Palau during a weeklong swing through the Pacific, making him the second high-ranking Defense Department official to visit to the small island nation in the last two months as the Second Island Chain is being eyed to play an even larger role in military plans and operations going forward. – USNI News 

Britain confirmed details of its route to citizenship for almost three million people in its former colony Hong Kong, saying in a statement that there would be no quota on numbers and that a five-year visa would cost 250 pounds ($330) per person. – Reuters

The Hong Kong office of China’s foreign ministry urges Britain to “immediately correct its mistakes” regarding visa policy for those with British National (Overseas) status, it said on Friday. – Reuters

Police in Georgia were on Thursday searching for an unidentified gunman who took 43 hostages during a bank robbery and disappeared after releasing them, the interior ministry said. – Reuters

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to Indonesia next week as U.S. and allied leaders seek to band with other democratic powers to curb China’s capacity to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. – Washington Examiner

Global financial titan Goldman Sachs agreed to pay $2.9 billion in penalties to settle criminal charges in the 1MDB Malaysian bribery scandal, the largest US fine ever in a corruption case, the Justice Department announced Thursday. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: The Trump Administration moved forward this week with a $1.8 billion arms sale to Taiwan. The timing is right, given China’s lawless takeover of Hong Kong and its escalating threats against Taiwan. […]The arms sale is much-needed for Taiwan’s defense, but it’s also a crucial signal of U.S. support. Whoever wins on Nov. 3 will need to do more lest China see weakness and strike. – Wall Street Journal 

Erica Marat writes: While there’s hope that political life will return to normal after a rerun of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. 20, many in the country are concerned that the most powerful political parties are affiliated with individuals with criminal and corrupt backgrounds. The criminal underworld has always played a role in supporting both government and opposition forces in Kyrgyzstan. – Foreign Policy 

Russia

While senior Trump administration officials said this week that Iran has been actively interfering in the presidential election, many intelligence officials said they remained far more concerned about Russia, which in recent days has hacked into state and local computer networks in breaches that could allow Moscow broader access to American voting infrastructure. – New York Times

The European Union imposed sanctions on the head of Russia’s military intelligence, Igor Kostyukov, and another Russian on Thursday, accusing them of stealing Angela Merkel’s emails in a 2015 hacking attack on the German parliament. – Reuters

The era when the United States and Russia decided the world’s most important questions is in the past, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday, saying China and Germany were now heading for superpower status. – Reuters

Russia has granted U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden permanent residency rights, his lawyer said on Thursday, a step towards Russian citizenship if he wants it. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Thursday denied allegations from the United States that it had tried to interfere with the 2020 presidential election, calling accusations of hacking unfounded. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin says he personally intervened to ensure that Aleksei Navalny could be evacuated to Germany for treatment after the opposition politician was poisoned with a Soviet-style chemical agent in August. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Africa

Guinea’s President Alpha Conde has won a landslide re-election victory, giving him a third term in office after official results from 37 of 38 voting districts showed him with double the votes of his nearest rival on Thursday evening. – Reuters

Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is ready to proceed with normalizing relations with Israel once a yet-to-be-formed transitional parliament has approved the step, two Sudanese government sources told Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department on Thursday condemned “excessive force” by Nigerian military forces on unarmed civilians and called for restraint, two days after soldiers opened fire on protesters demonstrating against police brutality in Lagos. – Reuters

Christos A. Makridis writes: While there has been bipartisan support for removing Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list, politics has gotten in the way for far too long. The road ahead is not easy, but now the stage is set for Sudan to continue its historical economic, social, and political reforms to become another light to the world. The tide is turning with the advent of the Middle East peace deals—and the good news from Sudan is yet another illustration of the possibilities that reside when we come together. – The National Interest 

Raphael Ahren writes: The normalization process with Sudan will likely be complicated, uneasy and much slower than those with the UAE and Bahrain. But if concluded successfully, Jerusalem would finally have peace with a large and important country that for decades exemplified the Arab world’s war against the Jewish state. To many Israelis, that may ultimately be even more meaningful than lucrative business deals and the prospect of vacations in luxury hotels. – Times of Israel

United States

As the eyes of the world focus on the U.S. election, teams of international observers are heading out across the United States amid concerns about the vote’s integrity. For the ninth time, observers affiliated with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have come to the United States to watch over an election and recommend improvements, a mission little-noticed by most Americans. – Washington Post 

The United States is urging countries that have ratified a U.N. treaty to ban nuclear weapons to withdraw their support as the pact nears the 50 ratifications needed to trigger its entry into force, which supporters say could happen this week. – Associated Press

The phenomenon was quickly dubbed the “Havana syndrome.” And while similar symptoms have been documented by U.S. government employees in other places abroad, reports emerged this week suggesting that the potential sonic attacks might be far more pervasive than what was publicly known. In turn, more fingers are pointing toward Russia as being behind the global barrage of possible sonic attacks. – Fox News

Seth G. Jones et al., write: White supremacists and other like-minded extremists conducted two-thirds of the terrorist plots and attacks in the United States in 2020, according to new CSIS data. Anarchists, anti-fascists, and other like-minded extremists orchestrated 20 percent of the plots and attacks, though the number of incidents grew from previous years as these extremists targeted law enforcement, military, and government facilities and personnel. Despite these findings, however, the number of fatalities from domestic terrorism is relatively low compared to previous years. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Defense

U.S. allies in Europe and Canada have increased defense spending for a sixth consecutive year but most of them will still fail to achieve a NATO spending ambition by the target date of 2024, according to new figures being discussed by defense ministers on Thursday. – Associated Press 

After successfully carrying out an integrated exercise in the Indo-Pacific region, the Navy and Marine Corps are ready to take their new level of naval integration to the joint force in an exercise next year. – USNI News 

The US Department of State has approved the potential sale to Taiwan of USD1.8 billion worth of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, AGM-84H Standoff Land Attack Missile-Expanded Response (SLAM-ER) missiles, and MS-110 multispectral airborne airborne reconnaissance pods, along with related equipment, training, support, and services. – Jane’s 360 

BAE Systems is remaining tight-lipped over whether it will compete in the US Army’s revamped M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle replacement competition, but told Janes a newly forged partnership with Elbit Systems could help it outfit such proposals with added capabilities. – Jane’s 360 

Once challenged as duplicative and unnecessary, the United States Space Force in 10 month’s time has spurred America’s closest allies to create their own space agencies and sign partnering agreements to follow the U.S. lead in space security, Space Force commander Gen. Jay Raymond told the Washington Examiner this week. – Washington Examiner

Kris Osborn writes: The Stormbreaker was engineered with the strategic recognition the future targets in major war will be much more difficult to reach given enemy countermeasures, sensor detection ranges and an increase in stand-off weaponry. With this in mind, Air Force and Raytheon developers sought to engineer a multi-mode targeting link able to draw upon a two-way data link to track and destroy enemy targets from distances as far at forty miles. – The National Interest 

Seth Cropsey writes: Nuclear weapons compound the issue, generating the prospect of mutual annihilation, or at minimum severe casualties, in any confrontation. The only way to secure US interests, therefore, is to create a military capable of deterring and winning conventional war so decisively as to forestall nuclear escalation. This military force must be deployed forward. – Hudson Institute 

Timothy A. Walton and Bryan Clark write: The Navy is now developing a new shipbuilding plan as part of its FY22 budget submission. Congress should carefully assess that plan and, in collaboration with the DoD, refine the budget. Esper may depart, but the results of this study can serve as a starting point for an operationally effective and fiscally sustainable fleet for the next administration. – Defense News 

Mark Whittington writes: Besides, space exploration and the expansion of human civilization beyond the Earth have benefits that are not partisan but universal. Those benefits include the furtherance of science, commerce, and American soft political power. The Trump administration recognizes this truth. If Biden replaces him, he would do well to recognize it, too. – Washington Examiner

Missile Defense

Russian President Vladimir Putin urged his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump to agree to his proposal for a one-year extension of the New START arms-control treaty as talks enter a vital phase less than two weeks before the American presidential election. – Bloomberg 

The following is the Oct. 14, 2020 Congressional Research Service report, The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions. – USNI News 

In order to accommodate the equivalent of an intermediate-range ballistic missile aboard the Navy’s current crop of destroyers, the service would need to undertake complex modifications to both the Zumwalt and Arleigh Burke classes of ships to install a long-range hypersonic strike weapon on DDGs, as the national security advisor called for this week. – USNI News 

Basing Japan’s missile defence systems at sea may cost at least twice as much to complete as its now-abandoned plans for Aegis Ashore ground-based sites and delay it to 2028, a person with knowledge of the plans told Reuters. – Reuters 

George P. Shultz, William J. Perry and Sam Nunn write: With the foundation of New START in place, all of the two countries’ nuclear weapons — including those associated with short-range systems, the so-called tactical nuclear weapons, of which Russia has a larger number — should be subject to limits. But the United States and Russia will have to invest the time and effort necessary to establish new verification methods. Other long-standing issues will need to be discussed in parallel, including ballistic-missile defense; weapons in space; precision-guided, long-range conventional arms; and emerging technologies, including cyber. – Washington Post