Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas released the bodies of two more Israeli hostages on Tuesday as the group and Israel came under increasing pressure from the U.S. to avoid escalation that could collapse the cease-fire in Gaza, according to Israeli and Arab officials. – Wall Street Journal

Boston Consulting Group is naming a new chief risk officer and putting other client-selection protocols in place after months of controversy stemming from its work on an Israeli-backed aid-distribution initiative in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to appoint a new national security adviser, replacing Tzachi Hanegbi. Netanyahu will appoint deputy head of the National Security Council, Gil Reich, as acting head of the council, his office said in a statement. – Reuters

A small contingent of British military planning officers has been sent to Israel to join a task force led by the United States to support stabilisation efforts in Gaza, the UK defence ministry said. – Reuters

Israel urged Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to drop his pledge to honour the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he travelled to the country. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the head of Egyptian intelligence in Jerusalem on Tuesday, the prime minister’s office said. – Reuters

The U.N. World Food Programme said on Tuesday that supplies into Gaza were ramping up after the U.S.-brokered ceasefire but were still far short of its daily target of 2,000 tons because only two crossings are open, and none to the famine-hit north of the enclave. – Reuters

US Vice President JD Vance visited the base of a multinational monitoring force near Gaza as one of his first stops on a three-day trip to Israel, seeking to bolster faith in a peace plan that’s got off to an uncertain start. – Bloomberg

Amid the implementation of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan to end the Hamas-Israel war, Mideast experts are urging that the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) have no presence in the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip because of its reported support for the terrorist organization Hamas and its track record of severe incompetence. – Fox News

US Vice President JD Vance will meet with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir and Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Two IDF soldiers were lightly wounded when an explosive detonated in southern Gaza, the military confirmed on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Over the next two weeks, US military personnel will integrate representatives from partner countries, NGOs, international organizations and the private sector into the Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), the commander of US forces in the Mideast announced, after the center in southern Israel was unveiled Tuesday by visiting US Vice President JD Vance amid a fragile ceasefire in Gaza. – Times of Israel

Israel is advancing the procurement of new light attack aircraft for border defense, with a memorandum of understanding signed last week between American and Israeli defense contractors for the development of the planes. – Times of Israel

As the fragile ceasefire in Gaza appears to hold, experts are warning about the expanding roles of Qatar and Turkey in reconstruction and post-war efforts, amid concerns that their involvement could potentially strengthen Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure. – Algemeiner

The Arab affairs commentator, Zvi Yehezkeli, warns that the Trump administration – together with the mediators in the hostage deal – is about to bring about a situation in which Hamas will remain in power in the Gaza Strip. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: But Israel has learned through painful experience that agreements without enforcement mechanisms become meaningless. The coming weeks will test whether American-led optimism can translate into a durable reality. For now, Israelis should welcome Washington’s engagement while keeping their wits about them and the huge challenges ahead. As Vance himself put it: “There are going to be hills and valleys.” Geopolitics in the Middle East has always had plenty of both. – Jerusalem Post

Moumen Al-Natour writes: Such an outcome would be a tragedy not only for Palestinians but for the rest of the world as well. If Hamas retains a foothold in Gaza, it will quickly undermine and disrupt the progress we are now trying to achieve. The only solution is to force Hamas to abide by the terms of the deal, by handing over its weapons and leaving the future of Gaza to people who have been denied a voice for a generation, rather than leaving a vacuum for it to exploit. The creation and implementation of a new civil administration and international stabilization force as outlined in the plan cannot come soon enough. – Washington Post

Keith B. Richburg writes: An Arab and Muslim force is supposed to deploy to Gaza. But countries might be reluctant to send troops if it means battling Hamas. And countries might resist joining the Haiti suppression force if it means serious combat with heavily armed gangs. In principle and on paper, disarmament is always the goal. But it’s often impossible to achieve where it matters: on the ground. – Washington Post

Mark Levin writes: We talk about obliterating Hamas, yet we are pressuring Israel. Pressuring Israel will not stop Hamas. Pressuring Qatar, Turkey and Egypt, as well as Hamas, is what should be done. That said, those countries have shown they won’t take real steps to stop Hamas. Hamas must be wiped out. They don’t get infinite chances to comply. We won’t wipe them out. Only Israel will. It’s time to accept reality, stop pressuring Israel, and let them finish the job. For their sake and the sake of the West, and, yes, the Arab Gulf states that want Hamas eliminated but don’t have the guts to say so. – Arutz Sheva

Russia and Ukraine

President Trump said Tuesday that meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin would be a waste and that he would reveal his new thinking on the Ukraine war within two days. – Wall Street Journal

Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine killed six people, including two children, and forced power outages nationwide, officials said on Wednesday, as plans for a summit of Russian and U.S. leaders were shelved after Moscow rejected a ceasefire. – Reuters

Russia reiterated its previous terms for reaching a peace deal with Ukraine in a private communique sent to the U.S. over the weekend known as a “non-paper,” according to two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the situation. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia “almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy” due to the postponement of a decision by the U.S. administration on Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine. – Reuters

Mass production of Ukrainian interceptor drones in the United Kingdom is gearing up, as the war-torn country transitions to licensed production of domestically designed weapons in partner countries. – Defense News

Editorial: Russia’s summer offensive has clearly failed. The Economist estimates that, at the current pace of advance, it would take Russia until June 2030 to seize all of the territories it has annexed on paper. With every passing month, the human toll keeps rising. At some point, that could translate to instability at home for Putin. The deal available — some territory for Russia, robust security guarantees for Ukraine — will remain the most likely final outcome, no matter when the war ends. Rattling Russia’s cage some more might bring Putin to his senses. – Washington Post

Harlan Ullman writes: The reality is that Gaza II has a long way to go, and the reassertion of Hamas as controlling Gaza is not a good start. In all likelihood, Putin wants more than Zelensky can give and Trump does not have the leverage to coerce or convince both sides to make concessions. That Trump was able to arrange a meeting is to his credit. But bringing any success may be a bridge too far. – The Hill

Arturo McFields Yescas writes: The violations of human rights of many Cuban soldiers, some of them only 17 years old, is also something for which Cuba must be held accountable. The brutal abuses and deception against  young Cubans have been widely reported . The Cuban regime simply claims to be unaware of this scandalous situation. The international community must speak out against what is happening with Cubans in the context of a war against a sovereign country like Ukraine. This cannot be another crime that goes unpunished. – The Hill

Turkey

Anxious to bolster its air power, Turkey has proposed to European partners and the U.S. ways it could swiftly obtain advanced fighter jets as it seeks to make up ground on regional rivals such as Israel, sources familiar with the talks say. – Reuters

Turkey’s ties to Hamas, once a liability in Washington, have turned into a geopolitical asset. By persuading Hamas to accept Donald Trump’s Gaza deal, Ankara has reasserted itself on the Middle East chessboard, to the dismay of Israel and Arab rivals. – Reuters

Turkish nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli said the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state should hold a parliamentary vote to join Turkey, two days after Turkish Cypriots elected a candidate in favour of restarting talks with Greek Cypriots. – Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit Qatar this week with a request to buy 24 used Eurofighter Typhoon jets to modernize his country’s air force. – Bloomberg

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader will visit Washington next month and meet President Trump in the Oval Office, people familiar with the matter said, capping a multiyear effort to restore his international standing with a trip that could lay the groundwork for an eventual deal to establish ties with Israel. – Wall Street Journal

Qatar and the U.S. have written to EU heads of state expressing deep concern over corporate sustainability rules and their potential impact on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, according to a statement from QatarEnergy on Wednesday. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund, which raised its 2025 growth outlook for the Middle East and North Africa last week, has said that risks for the region are still tilted to the downside, despite a recent improvement in geopolitical tensions. – Reuters

A group of American victims of Palestinian terrorism, including the family of slain US Army Veteran Taylor Force, has filed a federal lawsuit demanding accountability from the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian Liberation Organization over their ‘Pay-for-Slay’ policy. – Jerusalem Post

Joseph Dunford and Eric Edelman write: In turn, we can move closer to achieving the potentially transformational goals identified during the president’s recent trip, while also expanding the Abraham Accords, integrating Middle East air and missile defenses, enhancing regional prosperity, and reducing our adversaries’ malign influence there. In all these ways, a new approach to the Middle East can make our own presence in the region more sustainable. It can also strengthen our core interests and deterrence throughout an increasingly troubled world. – The Hill

Jason Silverman writes: With normalization potentially in place, all Israel needs to do is continue to agree to the full implementation of Trump’s deal and let the onus be on Hamas to fulfill its terms, and thereby achieve all its war objectives – all the hostages returned and Hamas disarmed and removed from power. If this does not happen, Israel will likely have the backing of the US for continuing to prosecute the war against Hamas. Let Trump continue without interference to move the pieces on the board and restructure the regional geopolitical landscape, which serves Israel’s interests. – Jerusalem Post

Matthew Levitt writes: Hezbollah faces the prospect of a financial crisis at the worst time possible for the organization. As it has in the past, the group is certain to rely on its global network of illicit financial supporters to help bridge the gap. And among the illicit financial enterprises that Hezbollah operatives and supporters are engaged in, drug trafficking and money laundering are the most lucrative. In the infamous case of Ayman Joumma, for example, his drug trafficking organization laundered as much as $200 million per month through bulk cash smuggling and the use of Lebanese money exchange houses and banks tied to Hezbollah. Some portion of the profits earned from laundering these funds went to Hezbollah. – Washington Institute

China

With trade hostilities between the world’s two economic superpowers back on, China has sent the unmistakable message that it is ready to fight. A week ago, it invoked its grip over virtually the entire global supply of critical materials, breaking a delicate trade détente between the two countries. – New York Times

China will hold a celebration of the 80th anniversary of Taiwan’s “retrocession” to Chinese rule, the government said on Wednesday, while sources told Reuters it was scheduled for this weekend in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. – Reuters

Australia’s statements about an incident involving Chinese military aircraft over the South China Sea are an attempt to cover up an Australian “intrusion” into Chinese airspace, the Chinese defence ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board on Tuesday said it is sending a team of five investigators to Hong Kong to support the investigation into a cargo plane from Dubai that skidded off the runway and killed two airport security staff. – Reuters

China overtook the U.S. as Germany’s largest trading partner in the first eight months of 2025, regaining the top spot as higher tariffs weighed on German exports to the United States, preliminary data from the German statistics office showed. – Reuters

A small group of countries led by China and Russia has repeatedly tried to block funding for human rights-related work at the United Nations over a five-year period, according to a report by the non-profit International Service for Human Rights. – Reuters

Hong Kong on Tuesday reopened the runway where a cargo aircraft crashed and plunged into the sea the previous day, but said it won’t be used regularly until the wreckage was cleared. – Associated Press

The agreement between the U.S. and Australia to partner on developing supplies of rare earths and critical minerals amid trade tensions with China, the world’s leading supplier, prompted a response from the Chinese government. – Fox News

A Chinese fighter jet and a Royal Australian Air Force maritime patrol aircraft had an “unsafe and unprofessional” interaction as the two operated over the waters of the South China Sea, Canberra officials said Monday. – USNI News

Editorial: In a February letter to Britain’s ambassador to the U.S., Members of Congress Chris Smith of New Jersey and John Moolenaar of Michigan said the Chinese could also use the compound to expand the harassment of dissidents and critics. China’s monitoring and intimidation of overseas Chinese is well known. Britain was supposed to make a decision on the Chinese embassy last month but has delayed it until December. If Mr. Starmer wants to prove his critics wrong, he can heed the warnings and tell Beijing no. – Wall Street Journal

Asia

Japan’s exports rebounded in September, snapping a four-month run of declines despite U.S. tariffs in a positive sign for the economy, but one that is unlikely to dispel concerns about the longer-term impact of trade policy. – Wall Street Journal

Sanae Takaichi was confirmed as Japan’s first female prime minister in a parliamentary vote, giving the country a new leader who advocates close ties with the U.S. and a stronger Japanese military. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump offered his strongest endorsement yet of a roughly $240 billion plan to sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, calming fears that his administration would pull out of the deal, while striking an agreement with the U.S. ally on rare earths. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese endorsed Australia’s ambassador in Washington as doing a “fantastic job”, describing comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that he does not like Kevin Rudd as “light-hearted”. – Reuters

Built during the height of the Cold War to shelter supply boats from Chinese shells, one of Taiwan’s most well-known wartime attractions last weekend echoed with a different sound – cellos and violins for the annual Kinmen Tunnel Music Festival. – Reuters

Indonesia and Britain agreed on Tuesday to repatriate a 69-year-old British woman who was on death row in the Southeast Asian country over drug-related offences, an Indonesian minister said. – Reuters

President Donald Trump’s administration is involved in talks for a US company to access one of the world’s largest untapped deposits of tungsten, a metal used by the Pentagon to make ammunition, projectiles and other weaponry. – Bloomberg

Marvin Park and David Sacks write: Although these are limited steps, any incremental progress in the Taiwan Strait would be a major achievement. Rather than merely reacting to Beijing’s proposals, Washington can set the agenda on Taiwan and stabilize the Taiwan Strait, which remains the likeliest venue of a war between the two nuclear-armed powers. If China balks at American suggestions, it would nonetheless clarify Beijing’s intentions and send an important signal to the region that the United States does not seek war in the Taiwan Strait—and is committed in both words and deeds to preventing one. – Foreign Affairs

Africa

Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress ended apartheid 31 years ago with a promise to build a prosperous future for Black South Africans. Instead, its signature affirmative-action policy has fostered a culture of corruption, critics say, and the party is quickly losing voters who are fed up with the country’s worsening economic stagnation. – Wall Street Journal

After years spent accumulating arms and influence in rural parts of this West African nation, al-Qaeda-aligned militants have shown their power now extends to the heart of the state — imposing a fuel blockade that has paralyzed the Malian capital and threatens its military government. – Washington Post

The Trump administration’s plan to overhaul the U.S. refugee resettlement process, including a drastic reduction in overall annual admissions, coincides with a concerted effort to prepare thousands of White South Africans to relocate to the United States through the system, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post and people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

Cameroon’s security forces fired tear gas on Tuesday to disperse opposition party supporters protesting in the capital Yaounde and the northern city of Garoua, as tensions rise over the outcome of the October 12 presidential election. – Reuters

Uganda’s electoral commission on Tuesday gave January 15 as the date for the country’s general election, at which octogenarian President Yoweri Museveni will seek to extend his rule to nearly half a century. – Reuters

Rebels occupying Twangiza Mining’s gold concession in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have looted at least 500 kilograms of bullion since May, the company told Reuters, accusing some of its own employees of aiding the theft. – Reuters

The closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development earlier this year hit Somalia’s economy and tax revenues, the head of the country’s development bank said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Placide Konan has been using his slam poetry shows to speak out against Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara’s bid for a fourth term in Saturday’s election. – Associated Press

Justice Malala writes: Kenya’s President William Ruto visited Odinga’s home on Wednesday and announced a state funeral and seven days of national mourning. That’s the playbook everywhere on the continent when heads of state and ministers die in foreign hospitals. Africa’s leaders would do well to spend the money on better healthcare provision rather than honoring dead heroes. That would be a more fitting testament to Odinga, a left-wing firebrand who named his son Fidel after Cuba’s leader Castro. – Bloomberg

United States

Zohran Mamdani wants free child care for New Yorkers, a four-year rent freeze for some two million residents, buses without fares and a $30 minimum wage. – Wall Street Journal

A Trump nominee withdrew Tuesday from a Senate confirmation hearing to lead a White House ethics watchdog office, following a report that he made racist and antisemitic comments in a text chain. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is planning to release more than $3 billion in aid to U.S. farmers that had been frozen as a result of the government shutdown, as the agriculture sector grapples with the fallout from President Trump’s tariffs. – Wall Street Journal

The Treasury Department instructed employees not to share photos of the demolition of parts of the White House’s East Wing after images of construction equipment dismantling the facade of the building went viral online. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is exploring moving the $15 billion program that supports students with disabilities to a different agency within the federal government as it works to close the Education Department altogether, a department official said Tuesday. – Washington Post

A motorist “drove his vehicle” into a security gate outside the White House complex Tuesday night and an arrest was made, the U.S. Secret Service said. – Washington Post

Paul Ingrassia withdrew his nomination to lead the Office of Special Counsel, a day after POLITICO reported a slew of inflammatory texts he made to fellow Republicans in a group chat, according to the messages. – Politico

Editorial: The worry is that young MAGA Republicans imbibe this stuff and think it’s a model for how to act in the real world. President Trump could be a counterweight, if he pointed out that he has Jewish grandchildren and doesn’t find Nazis especially amusing. Word late Tuesday was that Mr. Ingrassia’s nomination is dead, a sign that the GOP won’t tolerate his brand of extremist political behavior and rhetoric. It is also a potent lesson for MAGA youth in what not to do. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Japan and South Korea may be betting that the Supreme Court will strike down Mr. Trump’s unilateral tariffs, in which case the pressure to pay hundreds of billions of dollars might ease. But Mr. Trump could still use other tariff authorities to extort them. If a Democratic President were doing this, Republicans would be crying foul and holding hearings, and rightly so. Sooner or later the Trump investment funds will get the same scrutiny, which they deserve. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Trump is also willing to make end-runs around the Senate. For example, after it was clear that Ed Martin, Trump’s wildly unfit nominee for U.S. attorney in Washington, couldn’t get through the Senate Judiciary Committee, the president installed him in a Justice Department role, where he is now helping drive political prosecutions. Similarly, Ingrassia has been working as the White House liaison to the Department of Homeland Security, a job he can keep even if rejected by the Senate. Republican and Democratic senators are too in thrall to presidents of their parties, and it’s damaging the constitutional system. Any flickers of independence deserve at least faint praise. – Washington Post

Elisha Wiesel writes: Ruth Wisse told me recently that the Jewish superpower is coexistence. As individuals and a nation, we look to encourage abundance, whether economic, cultural or spiritual. Mr. Cuomo champions that ethos. With the city under his leadership, the Jewish community will stand unafraid, contributing the best of ourselves—along with every other precious community—to the melting pot that is our beloved New York. – Wall Street Journal

Bret Stephens writes: What business does an American mayoral candidate have weighing in on foreign policy unless it scores points at the ballot box? I don’t doubt that Mamdani’s anti-Zionism is heartfelt and sincere, but its instrumentalization as an election talking point should frighten you in that it says more about the sensibilities of our fellow New Yorkers than it does about Mamdani himself.” In the long, sorry tale of anti-Jewish politics, it hasn’t just been the prejudice of a few that’s led Jews to grief. It’s been the supine indifference of the many. That’s what frightens Jews like me. – New York Times

Eli Lake writes: Fuentes was also an enthusiastic supporter of the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol, even though he never actually entered the building. In his 2021 speech at the second annual convention for his America First PAC, Fuentes said: “When I was there in D.C., outside of the building, and I saw hundreds of thousands of patriots surrounding the U.S. Capitol building, and I saw the police retreating, and we heard that the politicians voting on the fraudulent election had scurried in their underground tunnels away from the Capitol, I said to myself, ‘This is awesome.’ ” Comments like that relegated Fuentes to the margins of political discourse, even in the era of the leading norm violator, Donald Trump. – The Free Press

Defense

Elon Musk opened a new front in a battle over the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s leadership, blasting the agency’s current leader as a lightweight. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has told Pentagon staff they must obtain permission before interacting with members of Congress, according to a congressional aide and a department memo. – Reuters

The majority of ground combat vehicles used by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps are not ready to take part in missions due to a lack of maintenance and shortages of spare parts, warns a congressional watchdog. – Defense News

Army officials are looking to expand a pilot program allowing young officers to switch to new job fields in what they’re calling a recognition that Gen-Z troops might value flexibility more than dollars. – Defense News

John Ferrari writes: This will be messy. It will consume political capital. It will also require honest triage: some beloved programs must go to make room for designs that can be produced at scale. But the alternative is worse: a hollowed readiness built on scarce, museum-grade systems that cannot be fielded in the quantities a high-intensity fight demands. So the Pentagon must stop beating a dead horse by shouting louder into the conference room. It must redesign what it fields, retire what cannot be produced, and bring new companies and industrial architectures into the effort. If it can learn to treat munitions as infrastructure—modular, standardized, and backed by economic guarantees—it will get not only more rounds, but a resilient industrial base that lasts. – National Interest

James Holmes writes: Lastly, time is of the essence. Working SSGs such as the Korean KSS-III are already at sea, and the production line is hot. Why not order some for the US Navy rather than go through the time, cost, and sheer hassle of reconstituting the domestic infrastructure for constructing diesel-electric submarines? A triad of SSGs, SSKs, and SSNs would comprise a forbidding implement of access denial—helping the United States and its allies mount a retort to the theaterwide access-denial threat posed by the People’s Liberation Army. A distributed, technically proficient, nuclear-diesel fleet staged at China’s door could give Xi Jinping & Co. nightmares—inducing them to pause before launching some misadventure in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or elsewhere in Asian waters. – National Interest