Fdd's overnight brief

October 22, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

A month of Israeli military successes, capped by the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, is boosting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity and strengthening his political hand. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli authorities said on Monday that they have dismantled a spy network made up of seven Israelis who were gathering intelligence for Iran, adding that the seven had been arrested. It’s one of the largest such cases involving Iran since the war in Gaza began more than a year ago. – New York Times

An advanced missile defense system sent by the United States to Israel to thwart more attacks by Iran and its allies has arrived in Israel along with troops to operate it, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said on Monday. – New York Times

The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has raised hopes in the Biden administration that it could help pave the way for the eventual creation of a Palestinian state. – New York Times

The Israeli village of Shtula sits just south of the Lebanon border, so close that the outgoing thud of artillery permeating the town’s emptiness comes from the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, not the Israeli Defense Forces. I.D.F. tanks and armored vehicles can be seen moving into place on the Israeli side of the border as the military expands its ground operations in Lebanon. – New York Times

The top commanders of Hamas are mostly dead. The group’s rank and file has been decimated. Many of its hide-outs and stockpiles have been captured and destroyed. – New York Times

Israel’s requirements for the indemnification needed to allow Israeli banks to continue conducting transactions with Palestinian banks have been met by the Palestinian authorities, according to a source familiar with the situation. – Reuters

Israeli military forces besieged hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip on Monday as they stepped up their operations, preventing critical aid from reaching civilians, residents and medics said. – Reuters

Israeli authorities are still preventing humanitarian missions from reaching areas of northern Gaza with critical supplies including medicine and food for people under siege, the head of the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA said on Monday. – Reuters

Sirens sounded in central Israel as a projectile was identified crossing from Lebanon and falling into open ground, the army said on Tuesday. Alerts sounded in the Samaria area and in Modi’in Illit, the Israeli military added in a statement. Israel’s multi-layered air defences have intercepted the vast majority of missiles and drones fired at it since the start of the Gaza war. – Reuters

Hezbollah early on Tuesday morning said it launched volleys of rockets at two key bases near Tel Aviv and a naval base west of Haifa, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken due to arrive in Israel to launch another push for an elusive ceasefire. – Reuters

The heads of the United Nations World Food Programme and U.N. children’s agency UNICEF have privately appealed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for help “alleviating the suffering of countless civilians” in the Gaza Strip, West Bank and Lebanon, according to a letter seen by Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

On top of the grievous toll in human life and misery, Israel’s war against the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups has been expensive, and the painfully high financial costs are raising concerns about the long-term effect of the fighting on the country’s economy. – Associated Press

The Hamas terror group is moving towards appointing a Doha-based ruling committee, two sources said earlier this week, rather than choosing a single successor to previous leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip last Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse

A 3-year-old Palestinian boy was killed by air-dropped aid in the southern city of Khan Younis on Saturday, according to his relatives, as the humanitarian crisis spawned by the Israeli offensive compounds severe hunger across the Gaza Strip. – CNN

Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo on Monday spoke with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa and they discussed security and economic stability in the West Bank, the Department of Treasury said. – Reuters

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew, as well as several of his European counterparts, have pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other key figures in the Knesset to drop two bills that would effectively shut down the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), even though some employees of the U.N. agency aiding Palestinians took part in the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks. – Jerusalem Insider

Seth Mandel writes : Until now, Iran’s terror proxies have had all the advantages of actual nation-states with none of the limitations. They’ve essentially hacked the international system. Gaza’s borders are treated as Hamas’s sovereign territory, yet providing for the people within those borders is somehow Israel’s responsibility. Hezbollah gets a controlling stake in everything Lebanon does, but Israeli counterattacks on Hezbollah bases in Hezbollah territory are “collective punishment.” Israel seems to have found a way to work within that biased system and use it against Hezbollah and Hamas. Hopefully we’ll see plenty more of this, and not just from Israel. Welcome to the NFL, martyrs. – Commentary

Noga Arbel writes: I can understand why a Jordanian minister would be concerned that Israel no longer seems to be cooperating with the idea of creating another failed Arab state on Jewish soil. He lives in just such a state – the moral foundation of which is questionable, to say the least. But most Israelis, or at least, those who sincerely care about historical truth and the consequences of ignoring the dangers that UNRWA’s existence poses, know only too well why it is in the interests of Israel, the region, and in fact the world, to end it at long last. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

U.S. President Joe Biden has signaled “tacit approval and explicit support for Israel’s unlawful military aggression against Iran,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said on Monday, citing remarks by Biden in Germany last week. – Reuters

Iran has written to the U.N. nuclear watchdog to complain about Israeli threats to strike its atomic energy sites, its foreign ministry spokesman said at a weekly news conference on Monday. – Reuters

President Joe Biden is “deeply concerned” about the unauthorized release of classified documents on Israel’s preparation for a potential retaliatory attack on Iran, a White House spokesman said Monday. – Associated Press

Iran denied on Monday an accusation from Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati that it was interfering in Beirut’s internal affairs over remarks attributed to Tehran’s speaker of parliament. – Agence France-Presse

A Revolutionary Court in central Isfahan has issued sentences against 10 Baha’i women, totaling 90 years in prison. The women were convicted of “propaganda and educational activities deviating from Islamic law” for promoting and teaching Baha’i beliefs. – Iran Wire

Ruth Wasserman Lande writes: In the meantime, the border remains long and easily passable. The world’s attention is directed to the Gaza Strip and to Lebanon, while the eastern arena is left largely unattended. – Jerusalem Post

Farhad Rezaei writes: Sinwar also brought ruin and destruction upon Gaza. His leadership deepened poverty and inflicted significant pain on the Palestinian people. It is no surprise that his demise brought a sense of relief to parts of the population in the Gaza Strip, already exhausted by the prolonged violence and destructive war. Those familiar with the fall of Nazi Germany may find eerie similarities to the corpses of leading Nazis, strewn among the devastation of Berlin, the capital of the Nazi empire, and the corpse of Sinwar in the ruins of the Gaza Strip. The Iranian backers of Hamas, who often evoke genocidal Nazi tropes echoed by Sinwar, may need a crash course on how the Third Reich ended in the greatest catastrophe in German history. – Jerusalem Post

Louis René Beres writes: Reaching a rational judgment on launching defensive first strikes against a still pre-nuclear Iran will require careful anticipations of (1) Russian and/or North Korean involvement; and (2) United States willingness to stand by Israel in extremis; that it, when all active adversaries are struggling for “escalation dominance.” For Israel, perhaps more than any other decisional factor, compelling evidence of Russian support for Iran’s ongoing nuclearization could represent a poisonous “fly in the ointment.” Together with certain other potentially lethal threats from already-nuclear North Korea, this latent “toxin” warrants continuously close attention in Jerusalem. – Arutz Sheva

Matthew Levitt and Sarah Boches write: Ultimately, Sweden’s prime minister recently argued, “The only reasonable option…is that we obtain a common classification of terrorists, so that we can act more broadly than with the sanctions that already exist.” Acts of state-sponsored terrorism, carried out by criminal proxies, cannot be effectively addressed as a criminal matter alone. A common designation would bring to bear a broader range of intelligence and counterterrorism tools to address the threat. – Washington Institute

Russia & Ukraine

The annual summit of the BRICS group of countries being held in Russia this week is so central to President Vladimir Putin’s effort to parade powerful friends and project global prestige that local authorities warned residents in the host city of Kazan not to drive shabby cars in case they undermine his message. – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Kyiv on Monday with an announcement of $400 million more in military assistance but no agreement to allow the Ukrainians to use long-range missiles inside Russia. – Wall Street Journal

Mariupol became an emblem of Russia’s destruction early in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Now the ruined port city is war bounty, enriching allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal

Paul Whelan was in Moscow that day at the storied Metropole Hotel, getting ready for the wedding of a fellow U.S. Marine, when a longtime Russian friend, a junior officer in the frontier guards, dropped by unexpectedly. – New York Times

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Monday he and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had discussed safe navigation for shipping in the Black Sea. “I conveyed Ukraine’s interest in further developing cooperation between Ukraine and Türkiye, especially in defense area,” Sybiha wrote on the social platform X. “I also underscored the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. We also discussed ways to a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace.” – Reuters

Britain will lend Ukraine 2.26 billion pounds ($2.94 billion) as part of a much larger planned loan from the Group of Seven nations backed by frozen Russian central bank assets to help buy weapons and rebuild damaged infrastructure. – Reuters

Ukraine may lift an export ban on drone systems to generate revenue for local companies, a move one manufacturer argues is overdue. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Kyiv has prohibited the export of military goods to other countries to guarantee that the Ukrainian armed forces are supplied with the equipment they need to continue defending their territory. – Defense News

Yu Koizumi writes: Why not include Canada? Canada is located on both the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Japan has also expressed its intention to participate in the project to replace the Canadian Victoria-class submarines, and this is not only for commercial reasons. Another objective is to maintain the balance of power in the North Pacific. It is also possible that Japan and South Korea could share activities in the Tsushima Strait and the East China Sea, using the surveillance and warning capabilities of the South Korean navy and air force. The naval game played out between Russia and the West gets harder every year. But there is no limit to the number of players in this game. This can work to the Western allies’ advantage. – War on Rocks

Jack Watling writes: The security of Europe now depends on significant multilateral cooperation to ensure that any path toward ending the war achieves the best possible result for Ukraine. But as attention shifts to negotiations, U.S. and European military support must not wane, for although a successful outcome can be achieved only through diplomacy, what is diplomatically possible will always depend on the military realities on the ground. – Foreign Affairs

Walter Russell Mead writes: These are hard truths that neither Team Biden nor Team Scholz wants to face—and to which they have no realistic response. Mr. Biden is welcome to his Order of Merit, but as he prepares to leave office, the partnership between Germany and the U.S. is failing its most important test since the presidency of George H.W. Bush. – Wall Street Journal

Hezbollah

A 2006 resolution by the United Nations Security Council ended the previous Israel-Hezbollah war but failed to keep the peace. Now, diplomats are fighting an uphill battle to revive the measure and pull the Middle East back from the brink of all-out war. – New York Times

Israel’s attack on branches of a Hezbollah-linked bank widened Israel’s campaign to degrade the economic and social institutions that back the militant group’s grip on Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal

Israel said late Monday it planned to carry out more strikes in Lebanon against a Hezbollah-run financial institution that it targeted the night before and which it says uses customers’ deposits to finance attacks against Israel. – Associated Press

Hezbollah has stashed hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and gold in a bunker built under a hospital in Beirut, Israel’s military said on Monday, adding it will not strike the facility as it keeps up attacks against the group’s financial assets. – Reuters

Yaakov Lappin writes: The Center noted on Oct. 20 that Al-Qard Al-Hasan holds tons of gold and manages over half a billion dollars in loans annually. Over time, the institution has also become a tool for money laundering, allowing Hezbollah to bypass international sanctions, according to Alma. In fact, in 2021 the bank’s databases were hacked, revealing a trove of customer accounts, including those of Hezbollah operatives under sanctions, it added. This parallel financial network has allowed Hezbollah to function as a state within a state in Lebanon, and its elimination will seriously damage the terror group. – Arutz Sheva

Gadi Zaig writes: Hagari also revealed that the IDF eliminated in Syria a senior member of the terrorist organization’s financial system, Ynet reported. The “Qard al-Hasan” bank, which was founded in the 1980s as a charity, has developed into a powerful financial institution that currently serves over 200,000 people and manages most of Hezbollah’s economic activity, Maariv reported. – Jerusalem Post

Alana Schetzer writes: But as the reactions of many Syrians to Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah demonstrate, it is not just Israelis who have suffered as a result of Iran’s strategy of aggression and expansionism. And many Syrians, Lebanese, and others, whether or not they are able to say so publicly, will be rooting for Israel to finish the job of demolishing Hezbollah,  a central part of Iran’s “Ring of Fire.” – Algemeiner

Seth Mandel writes: As long as Hamas is operationally headless, Israel can turn more attention to Hezbollah without losing ground in Gaza. Iran’s entire strategy for its proxies is to avoid a fair fight and force Israel to fend off multiple enemies on multiple fronts. A Sinwar-less Gaza, therefore, is Hezbollah’s nightmare. The pressure will be on Iran and its proxies to strike a deal before Israel can deliver a similar knockout punch to Hezbollah. The West should be in no rush to make this any easier for Tehran. – Commentary

Turkey

It was a spectacular falling out. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had risen to power largely thanks to the support of a preacher and fellow Islamist, Fethullah Gulen, who died this week. Mr. Gulen’s millions-strong following of educated and motivated Turks helped fill the ranks of government, as well as the media, the police and law courts, helping Mr. Erdogan run the country and cement his power. – New York Times

Kenya said on Monday said it had handed over four Turkish refugees after accepting an extradition request by Ankara despite Amnesty International raising concerns they could face persecution at home if they were deported. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: The correct response to Erdogan’s UN speech is neither silence nor acquiescence. When Erdogan speaks of the “alliance of humanity” that defeated Hitler, he ignores that Turkey remained neutral until World War II’s final weeks, only even sold Hitler chromite and other military goods for the profit of Ismet Inonu, Ataturk’s corrupt and dictatorial successor. What Cyprus needs now is a new “alliance of humanity,” with arms superior to Turkey’s, and European and US military assistance prepared to protect every meter of Cyprus, its coastline and its territorial waters. – Kathimerini

Lebanon

Three Lebanese soldiers were killed on Sunday by Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, drawing condemnation from the Lebanese Armed Forces and prompting Israel’s military to apologize for what it called “these unwanted circumstances.” – New York Times

U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein said on Monday in Beirut that the United States was working on a formula to end the conflict between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah for good, and that merely committing to a previous U.N. resolution would not be enough. – Reuters

A child and three adults were killed and 24 others were wounded on Monday in an Israeli strike near the Lebanese capital Beirut’s main government hospital, the national health ministry said in a statement. – Reuters

Tatiana Waisberg writes: Unlike other peacekeeping forces, which have had their reputation damaged by scandals, including sex abuse in exchange for aid, this is not the case for UNIFIL. Its size and capabilities can now be redirected toward logistical support. It can collaborate with other organizations, states, and NGOs. This could be a step toward curbing Israel’s intention to push for an end to UNIFIL. Alternatively, it risks turning into an entity exploited by Hezbollah as a trap for IDF forces. – Jerusalem Post

Arabian Peninsula

Qatar is finding it hard to agree new deals to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan and South Korea as rising competition from the U.S. and elsewhere with more flexible contract terms challenges Doha’s decades-old dominance of the market. – Reuters

Former U.S. national team captain Becky Sauerbrunn and Netherlands forward Vivianne Miedema are among more than 100 women’s soccer players who have signed an open letter protesting FIFA’s sponsorship deal with Saudi Arabian state oil giant Aramco. – Associated Press

A prominent Saudi dissident who accuses Saudi Arabia of targeting him with spyware can sue the kingdom in London, his lawyers said on Monday. Yahya Assiri, a founder of the opposition National Assembly Party (NAAS) who lives in exile in Britain, alleges his electronic devices were targeted with surveillance software between 2018 and 2020. – Reuters

The so-called “foreign minister” of the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group in Yemen has warned that if the US takes military action against the western Yemeni port of Al-Hudaydah on the Red Sea, it will suffer consequences severe enough to make the “hell” experienced by American soldiers during the Vietnam War feel like a “walk in the park.”  – Algemeiner

Ari Heistein writes: These weak points could relate to how the regime finances its rule and its war machine, how the regime dominates 20 million Yemenis (many of whom are dissatisfied with the abysmal conditions under the Houthis), which leaders occupy personalized posts essential to the movement’s function, and what capabilities enable the Houthis to threaten and extort their neighbors. If the Israeli approach remains focused on deterrence as the be all and end all of its Houthi policy, which is tactically achievable but strategically ineffective, then Israel and the entire Middle East will be faced with a North Korea on the Red Sea for many years to come. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

Just where does Emmanuel Macron stand on the Middle East? As the French president prepares to host an international conference on the crisis in Lebanon, his zig-zag approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is causing some to question his effectiveness as a regional mediator. – Politico

Oil prices eased on Tuesday as the top U.S. diplomat renewed efforts to push for a ceasefire in the Middle East and as slowing demand growth in China, the world’s top oil importer, continued to weigh on the market. – Reuters

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has emerged as the leading party in the long-awaited Iraqi Kurdish parliamentary election, securing 809,197 votes, according to preliminary results released by Iraq’s electoral commission. – Reuters

At least two people were killed and three others injured on Monday in an apparent guided missile attack on a car in the Mazzeh area of Damascus, Syrian state television said, quoting a military source. – Reuters

Veysi Dag writes: In this sense, Israeli decision-makers should consider openly embracing the Kurds and formally welcoming them to participate in the multi-ethnic and multi-religious model for the Middle East that the Abraham Accords represent, a model of that which they have long upheld. The approach Israeli policymakers take toward the Kurds is crucial to securing full confidence between the Kurdish people and Israel, undermining the adverse influence of authoritarian regimes that are destructive to Kurdish-Jewish relations. – Jerusalem Post

Lahav Harkov writes: “The UAE was as explicit as possible in their writing and public [remarks] as they have been in private, and the same goes for Saudi Arabia as well as the Egyptians and other countries,” Efron said. “They said that when they are invited by the Palestinians to come help Gaza, they will come and support it. They’re not going to take over.” Efron argued that “there is only one P.A., with all of its faults.” “Everyone is aligned in their vision of what comes next for Gaza except for current Israeli leadership,” she added. “I hope this convinces [Israel’s government] that this is the best path forward.” – Jewish Insider

Nickolay Mladenov writes: This election is not just another cycle in the region’s political life—the future of Iraqi Kurdistan truly hangs in the balance. Its elected leaders must rise to the occasion and not only manage the political dynamics within the region but also maintain trust with the international community and Baghdad. For outside observers, this election also offers a glimpse into the challenges facing not just Kurdistan but the broader Middle East. Can democratic processes thrive in a region troubled by internal divisions and external pressures? The answer will reverberate far beyond the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan. – Washington Institute

Mohamed Maher and Mohamed Farid write: While Egypt is unlikely to make any sudden moves to sever its relationship with Israel, the tension is evident, and the consequences of the ongoing conflict could be dire for the wider region. Egypt’s security is already under pressure from multiple fronts—Libya to the west, Sudan to the south, and Gaza to the east—and continued instability in Gaza could push Egypt’s already limited security resources to the breaking point. On the other hand, all fronts on the Israeli borders are already ablaze, but the southern border adjacent to Egypt remains the only relatively stable border. It is certain that no one here or there wants to ignite a new front for conflict and instability. – Washington Institute

Uri Friedman writes: Trump casts himself as the consummate dealmaker no matter how daunting the deal, but even he seems to suspect that a solution between Israelis and Palestinians is beyond him. “There was a time when I thought two states could work,” he has noted, but “now I think two states is going to be very, very tough.” Given that assessment, the backdrop of a devastating and still-unfolding war, and the low priority that Greenway suggests a second Trump administration would place on the pursuit of Israeli-Palestinian peace, the agreement that Trump once described as the “ultimate deal” would likely prove elusive, yet again. – The Atlantic

Korean Peninsula

South Korea may consider directly supplying weapons to Ukraine as part of measures to counter military ties between North Korea and Russia, officials said on Tuesday, after accusing Pyongyang of sending troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine. – Reuters

If North Korea were to send troops to Ukraine to fight on Russia’s behalf it would significantly escalate the conflict, NATO Chief Mark Rutte said on social media platform X on Monday. – Reuters

It would be a “dangerous and highly concerning development” if North Korea was sending troops to help Russia in Ukraine, the United States said on Monday as South Korea and Britain warned of the high price Moscow would likely have to pay Pyongyang. – Reuters

South Korea on Monday demanded the immediate pullout of North Korean troops allegedly deployed in Russia as it summoned the Russian ambassador to protest deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. – Associated Press

China

In early April 2019, Rep. Grace Meng was launching into a busy legislative week on Capitol Hill. The same day in the central Chinese province of Henan, two Meng associates were delivering a letter of appreciation from her to the chief of an international influence operation managed by the Chinese Communist Party. – Wall Street Journal

China hopes Japan will work with it to maintain a “mutually cooperative and non-threatening” positioning between the two countries, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Japan’s national security adviser Takeo Akiba on Monday. – Reuters

China condemned on Monday an attack on its consulate in Mandalay and urged Myanmar authorities to make every effort to arrest the perpetrators, a spokesperson of its foreign ministry said. – Reuters

Alessandro Arduino writes: Little did wannabe warlord and catering magnate Yevgeny Prigozhin realize his short-lived mutiny would result in his demise, leaving behind a legacy—and admirers—far beyond Russia’s borders, particularly in China, where Prigozhin has become a cult figure on closely monitored social media. – Foreign Policy

South Asia

After weeks of intense political maneuvering, Pakistan’s Parliament has passed a set of constitutional amendments that will overhaul the process for appointing the country’s chief justice. Critics called it an effort to rein in the Supreme Court as it has emerged as a political force in its own right and challenged Pakistan’s powerful military establishment. – New York Times

The family gathers around the laptop in New Delhi once a week. Sometimes, relatives dial in from north India, or even the United States. They wait for Umar Khalid, 37, an Indian political activist, to appear on the screen from jail. – New York Times

India and China have reached an agreement on patrolling their disputed border, a senior Indian official said Monday, marking a major thaw four years after bloody clashes between the nations’ border guards tanked bilateral relations and reshaped geopolitics in Asia. – Washington Post

Asia

Vietnam’s National Assembly approved a new president on Monday, restoring a power-sharing arrangement among four high-level leaders that has defined the country’s approach to Communist government for decades. – New York Times

China said it would carry out live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, the latest in a recent drumbeat of military activity that has once again heightened tensions in the region. – New York Times

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that live fire Chinese drills in a province facing the island are part of routine annual drills but also possibly part of China’s “deterrence effect” in the waters of the Taiwan Strait. – Reuters

Georgia’s saviour. Russia’s stooge. Philanthropist. Oligarch. Bidzina Ivanishvili has been called all these things, and more. The billionaire, Georgia’s richest person and the founder of its ruling party, is seldom seen in public and, of late, almost exclusively behind bulletproof glass. Yet his presence looms large over this small European country caught been Russia and the West and an election that could shape its destiny. – Reuters

Australia said on Tuesday it would bolster air and missile defence in a A$7 billion ($4.7 billion) deal with the United States to acquire SM-2 IIIC and SM-6 long-range missiles for its navy. – Reuters

The U.S. Army’s recent deployment of a midrange missile system to the northern Philippines was “incredibly important” and allowed American and Filipino forces to jointly train for the potential usage of such heavy weaponry in Asian archipelago conditions, a U.S. general said Monday. – Associated Press

Paul Huang writes: It’s a typical day in Taiwan, and China is conducting yet another round of military drills. As Chinese warships and planes yet again aggressively circle around Taiwan, Taipei scrambles its military to defensive positions across the island. Among the most important is a cohort of mobile ground units carrying anti-ship missiles to deter Chinese ships from invading. But unknown to the Taiwanese, their movements are exposed, and their supposedly secretive hideouts are readily tracked by China’s intelligence. If this were an actual war, they would be seconds away from destruction. – Foreign Policy

Europe

A razor-thin majority of Moldovans voted in favor of eventually joining the European Union, preliminary results showed Monday, after President Maia Sandu said the referendum had been marred by “unprecedented” pro-Russian interference. – Washington Post

Italy’s government on Monday passed a decree aimed at overcoming court objections to its flagship immigration plan that is aimed at deterring boat migrants by sending them to detention camps in Albania. – Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, at a baroque palace just north of Berlin on Tuesday for talks aimed at deepening economic and diplomatic ties. – Reuters

Africa

The U.S. government on Monday condemned the weekend killings by gunmen of two Mozambique opposition figures ahead of protests against a disputed election result, with Washington urging “a swift and thorough investigation into the murders.” – Reuters

The M23 rebel group has seized the town of Kalembe in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, expanding its reach in the region, an official and a former lawmaker said on Monday. – Reuters

Taiwan has again rejected South Africa’s demand that it move its representative office in the country from the capital, Pretoria, to the commercial center of Johannesburg. – Associated Press

Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces said Monday they shot down a cargo jet in the country’s far western reaches of Darfur, a claim that Russian diplomats said they were trying to investigate in the war zone. – Associated Press

Tim Liptrot writes: The 2023–24 Sudanese civil war is a severe tragedy that the international community must respond to. However, the severity of the crisis may lead policymakers and advocates to leap to action without considering the second-order effects of interventions. The United States should resist the urge to sanction bad guys and carefully consider how its actions shape the broader strategic context. The strategy of isolating both large armed groups for fighting has serious flaws. If both are equally damaged, it does not influence the peace process. In practice, one group will benefit in relative terms. Most importantly, isolating both armed groups would improve the independence of small armed groups and commanders, potentially pushing Sudan further toward fragmentation and state failure. – War On Rocks

The Americas

Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo was sentenced to more than 20 years in prison after being convicted on Monday of taking a multimillion-dollar bribe in a case tied to one of Latin America’s largest corruption scandals. – Wall Street Journal 

Millions of Cubans have been without electricity for days as the government struggled to restore nationwide power service after a massive blackout plunged the country into darkness on Friday. Then Hurricane Oscar hit the eastern tip of the island on Sunday. – Wall Street Journal

Police on Monday clashed with gunmen trying to take over one of the few communities in Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, that is not controlled by gangs. – Associated Press

Mexico is considering tax credits to attract foreign firms to invest and produce domestically, targeted at electric vehicle (EV), semiconductor, rare earth minerals, battery and electronics sectors, a top Mexican trade official said in an interview. – Reuters

Venezuelan authorities have arrested former industry and oil minister Pedro Tellechea, Attorney General Tarek Saab said on Monday, the latest high-profile detention connected to management of Venezuela’s sanctioned oil industry. – Reuters

Latin America is anxiously counting the days to Nov. 5, when U.S. voters will choose between relative continuity under Vice President Kamala Harris or a return to policies that triggered volatility in the region’s largest markets and economies under former president Donald Trump. – Reuters

Venezuela’s top prosecutor on Monday announced the arrest of a former oil minister and accused him of working with the U.S. government to undermine the industry that drives the country’s economy. – Associated Press

Two men accused of killing of former Air India bombing suspect Ripudaman Singh Malik have pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in a Canadian court. – Associated Press

Hundreds gathered Monday to mourn Catholic priest Marcelo Pérez, an activist for Indigenous peoples and farm laborers who was killed in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas. – Associated Press

Editorial: It will undoubtedly require rebuilding criminal justice systems: prosecutors with the ability and the independence to prosecute crimes; police forces, especially at the state and local level, with higher wages and better equipment to resist corruption and stand up to criminals’ stupendous arsenals; prisons that no longer work as recruiting grounds for organized crime. In time, Latin American governments might recover the capacity to deter. That is the only way to reestablish control over the rules governing their societies. They are unlikely to eradicate crime. No country has. But it is imperative that they constrain it. – Washington Post

United States

The United States has launched a review of an Israel Defense Forces unit that could have implications on U.S. assistance to Israel, Axios reported on Monday, citing two Israeli and two U.S. officials. – Reuters

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) is urging the Senate to pass legislation — already passed by the House earlier this year with bipartisan support — redesignating the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. He highlighted that the administration has declined to take such action on its own, a situation he said necessitates congressional intervention. – Jerusalem Insider

Dan Quayle writes: If our next president pulls back from global affairs or meets these challenges with weakness, the resulting threat will eclipse any domestic accomplishments. That’s why, if our candidates were wise, they would close out their campaigns laser-focused on foreign policy. That’s the job they are running for. – Wall Street Journal

Varun Sivaram writes: The United States is squandering its best opportunity to compete in the global battery race. China jumped to a commanding lead in the last decade, controlling the supply chain for lithium-ion batteries, which power everything from cell phones, to military drones, to electric vehicles (EVs). By passing ambitious legislation under U.S. President Joe Biden, Washington has begun investing heavily in its domestic battery industry. – Foreign Policy

Cybersecurity

The U.S. Justice Department on Monday proposed new rules to protect federal government data or Americans’ bulk personal data from getting into the hands of countries like China, Iran and Russia by placing new limits on certain business transactions. – Reuters

The United States is adding dozens of new entities to its trade restrictions list in its ongoing bid to disrupt weapons programs aiding Washington’s rivals including China, Russia and Iran. – Politico

TikTok parent company ByteDance has confirmed it terminated an intern over the summer for allegedly sabotaging the training of an artificial intelligence model. – Fox News

Defense

Former Attorney General Loretta Lynch, who served under President Barack Obama, is representing DJI, the world’s largest drone manufacturer, in a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). – Newsweek

President Joe Biden is “deeply concerned” following the unauthorized release of classified documents detailing Israel’s potential retaliatory strike plans against Iran, according to a White House spokesman. – Newsweek

The Navy over the weekend fired both the commanding and executive officers of a U.S. naval ship repair facility in Yokosuka, Japan, citing “a loss of confidence in their ability to command,” according to a service statement. – The Hill

The first F-35B Lightning II landed on Japanese big-deck JS Kaga (DDH-184) on Sunday off California. – Defense News

Mara Karlin writes: Today’s global security environment is the most complex since the end of the Cold War. Learning from wars that others wage can be difficult, but it is ultimately better than learning those lessons directly. The destruction and loss of life in Ukraine and the Middle East have been heartbreaking. In addition to helping its allies prevail in those conflicts and fostering peace, Washington should get ready to fight the kind of total war that has ripped apart those places—which is the best way to avoid one. – Foreign Affairs

Long War

Gunmen fatally shot at least seven people working on a strategic tunnel project in Indian-controlled Kashmir and injured at least five others, officials said on Monday. – Associated Press

A Philippine court has convicted and sentenced to life 17 Islamic militants for kidnapping for ransom 21 people, including European tourists and Asian workers, from a dive resort in Malaysia more than two decades ago, officials said Monday. – Associated Press

Riley McCabe writes: Despite worrying data trends, there is cause for hope. Over the past several years, various federal agencies have increasingly prioritized research-driven approaches to understanding the scope and root causes of domestic extremism, allowing for more informed and targeted counterterrorism efforts. This has been paired with advancements in technology and data analysis, enabling law enforcement to detect and disrupt potential threats more efficiently. Policymakers now need to find ways to collaborate to reverse the rising domestic terrorist threat against government targets. – Center for Strategic & International Studies