Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran says that it is conducting a massive air defense drill that will cover half of Iran’s airspace this week. It will begin on Wednesday and comes in the wake of a joint Israel F-35 drill with the US. It comes in the context of increased focus on air defense in the region after Azerbaijan has used drones successfully against Armenian forces for the last three weeks of fighting. An arms embargo on Iran recently expired and the country is looking to improve its military and defense technology. – Jerusalem Post 

Russia’s foreign minister called for collective efforts Tuesday to prevent a large-scale war in the Persian Gulf and got strong support from all Security Council members except the United States, which called Iran the major culprit and urged that it be held accountable for supporting terrorists and destabilizing the region. – Associated Press

In its latest report released on Monday, the International Monetary Fund estimates that the Iranian government’s net debt will reach about $260 billion by 2020, which is equivalent to 44 percent of Iran’s gross domestic product. – Radio Farda 

Berkshire Hathaway Inc will pay $4.1 million to settle allegations that the company and one of its Turkish subsidiaries violated sanctions against Iran, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

In a poor neighbourhood of the historic city of Isfahan, workers toil day and night to build a new hospital as Iran’s overwhelmed health system struggles to cope with the soaring number of Covid cases.[…]The work on the 1,000-bed seven-storey Isfahan Eram Center Hospital has been expedited by the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which has highlighted years of underinvestment and decades of inertia in a health system that has also been hobbled by US sanctions. – Financial Times

Even if Joe Biden triumphs at the polls, Iran’s weakened government may only have a few months to negotiate a revived nuclear deal before facing its own electoral challenge by hardliners who oppose any engagement with the west. […Iran’s reformists and centrists remain severely damaged by the failure of the original agreement to deliver economic benefits to ordinary Iranians. – The Guardian 

A widespread protest is underway on Persian social media against the shortage of insulin in Iran. […]The lack of response from government officials prompted social media users to circulate the hashtag “no insulin” on Sunday to express their concern about the condition of diabetic patients, demanding the government address the crucial problem immediately. – Radio Farda 

A young woman has been arrested in central Iran for “insulting the Islamic hijab”, state media said on Tuesday, after a video appeared to show her cycling without a veil. – The Guardian

US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper addressed the recent agreements to normalize relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, saying that they could help deter Iran. – Jerusalem Post 

Judiciary officials in Iran have transferred the prominent Iranian lawyer and human rights advocate, Nasrin Sotoudeh, to a prison outside the capital city, Tehran, her husband, disclosed in a tweet on Tuesday, October 20. – Radio Farda 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lashed out at the idea of Muslim nations compromising with Israel, calling it a “humiliation,” and issued an ominous warning to nations seeking to normalize ties with the Jewish state. – Times of Israel 

While the Iranian leadership continues its long-standing pattern of hostile declarations regarding the U.S. and Israel, Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani, daughter of senior regime official Hashemi Rafsanjan, who died under unclear circumstances in January 2017, called on the regime to change its policy vis-à-vis Israel. She said that it should prioritize the national interest over stubborn adherence to an ideology that in any case is not being uniformly implemented with the rest of the world’s countries. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Turkey

Greece has begun extending a border wall along its frontier with Turkey to deter migrants from trying to enter the European Union, the Greek government has said, after a border standoff earlier this year which has helped drive Greek-Turkish relations to a dangerously low ebb. – The Guardian

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Turkey has tried to cement its military role and occupation of northern Cyprus by calling itself a “guarantor” of northern Cyprus. While Turkey claims to oppose other occupations, such as Israel’s annexation of the Golan or Armenia’s control of Nagorna-Karabakh, Ankara exploits agreements to claim it has a right to occupy illegally northern Syria and Iraq. Its narrative now appears to be shifting on northern Cyprus to push for international recognition of the Turkish part of the island. – Jerusalem Post 

Zvi Bar’el writes: The question that should really concern Israel and its Arab allies, however, is whether they ought to let Turkey and/or Qatar fill the PA’s empty coffers, thereby granting them influence over the PA’s actions. This is also a dilemma for Abbas, who must make a strategic decision that will have significant implications for the PA’s future and the future of any diplomatic solution. – Haaretz

Gulf States

The fiancée of slain Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi has filed a lawsuit against Saudi Arabia’s crown prince in a U.S. court charging that the kingdom’s de facto ruler ordered the killing. – Wall Street Journal

The United Arab Emirates officially requested to open an embassy in Tel Aviv, during its first-ever government delegation’s visit to Israel on Tuesday. Members of the delegation gave Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi a letter from his UAE counterpart Abdullah Bin Zayed. – Jerusalem Post 

Israel’s Chamber of Commerce has signed an agreement of cooperation with the Bahrain Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI), marking the opening of trade ties between the two countries following the establishment of formal ties on Sunday, according to a government press release. – Jerusalem Post

The US, Israel and the United Arab Emirates announced the establishment of a joint regional development fund based in Jerusalem during the first-ever visit of a government delegation from Abu Dhabi to Israel on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post 

Kuwait’s parliament unanimously approved a law giving the government a year to set in motion plans to redress the lopsided ratio between foreign residents and citizens. – Bloomberg

Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah called on Tuesday for national unity to meet challenges facing the Gulf state, in a speech to lawmakers ahead of elections on Dec. 5. – Reuters

A pair of Democratic senators has introduced a bill aimed at constraining the Trump administration’s effort to sell F-35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates. – The Hill

A British royal navy vessel seized 450 kilograms (990 pounds) of methamphetamine in the northern Arabian Sea in the largest-ever bust by a joint maritime operation in the region, officials said Wednesday. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

An explosive new report alleges that, contrary to widespread expert consensus, North Korea has failed to acquire multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology in its pursuit of a nuclear deterrent. – The National Interest 

Kim Jong Un promised this week to improve relations with China, North Korea’s most critical trade partner. Kim said Monday he’d make efforts to “further consolidate and develop the traditional DPRK-China friendly relations,” according to North Korea’s Central News Agency, Yonhap News Agency reported. – New York Post

As coronavirus safety measures increase in North Korea, some households in that country have begun cutting back on their consumption, according to a new report. – The National Interest 

S. Nathan Park writes: Fundamentally, South Korean pop culture found global resonance because Korea’s artists created cultural products that the world found compelling. But the Korean government did play a role: It wanted to gain soft power through pop culture, devised an overarching strategy to boost its own artists’ reach, and implemented specific policies conducive to the flowering of pop culture. – Foreign Policy 

Afghanistan

The Taliban are advancing while peace talks stall. What are the chances for peace once the last US-led Nato forces leave? Lyse Doucet looks at a critical time for Afghanistan. – BBC 

Now, another report in Roznama Ummat, which is considered close to the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani military’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), notes that there is a “Plan B” that will kick in if the intra-Afghan talks fail, under which the U.S. will hand over major military bases to the Taliban. The insinuation is that the same will not be given to the elected democratic government of Afghanistan headed by President Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan army. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Mohsin Khan Mohmand and Ali M. Latifi write: With the presidential election fast approaching, and with peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government staggering forward, Helmand has become a dark reminder of the cyclical nature of the Afghan war—and just how delicate the security situation remains. Ten years ago, more than 15,000 Afghan, U.S., British, Canadian, and Estonian troops made one of the biggest pushes of the war to dislodge the Taliban from the town of Marjah, then the Taliban’s last big stronghold in Helmand. – Foreign Policy

Asia

Japan’s economy minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, hopes to meet British trade minister Liz Truss to discuss a trans-Pacific trade pact on a visit to the Asian nation that is being arranged but not yet finalised, he said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Taiwan will not be intimidated by China’s “hooligan” officials and will continue to celebrate its national day around the world, the government said on Tuesday, after Taiwan said Chinese diplomats had tried to charge into a diplomatic event in Fiji. – Reuters

The United States, Japan and Australia conducted trilateral naval exercises in the South China Sea on Oct. 19, the U.S. Seventh Fleet said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Japan opposes any actions that escalate tension in the East and South China Seas, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said on Wednesday, but added that Tokyo was not aiming at an “Asian NATO” to contain any specific country. – Reuters

Australia will join three-way naval exercises involving the United States, Japan and India, in a move that could provoke concern from China, which has criticised similar joint drills in the past. – Reuters

Two and a half weeks ago, Sadyr Japarov was languishing in prison, serving an 11-year sentence for the kidnapping of a political opponent. Today he is both Kyrgyzstan’s prime minister and acting president, having assumed power after the latest popular revolt to upend the country’s chaotic system of government. – Financial Times

Russia

The State Department broadened the scope of sanctions targeting an unfinished Russian-backed natural-gas pipeline that has been a source of tension between Germany, Russia and the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

Russia is planning for more conflict with the West as confrontation grows over the poisoning of an opposition leader, the crisis in Belarus and fresh charges of meddling in the American presidential vote. Rejecting U.S. and European accusations that it’s to blame for the mess in relations after years of targeting opponents, pressuring neighbors and hacking foreign governments’ computers, the Kremlin says it’s giving up any pretense of wanting to calm things down. – Bloomberg

Russia has authorised its defence ministry to open an office in Serbia, a government document showed, as Moscow pushes to expand military ties with its traditional Balkan ally even as Belgrade seeks to join the European Union. – Reuters

Russia’s Defence Ministry on Tuesday said it had rejected a string of “unacceptable” austerity measures proposed by the Finance Ministry that would cut some 100,000 troops. – Reuters

Russia on Tuesday denied British and U.S. allegations its military intelligence had orchestrated a litany of cyber attacks, including attempts to disrupt next year’s Olympic and Paralympic Games in Tokyo. – Reuters

The Kremlin is trying to intimidate opposition politician Alexei Navalny to discourage him from returning to Russia to campaign once he recovers from his poisoning, one of his close allies said. – Reuters

David Von Drehle writes: What impact the indictment might have is difficult to predict. Putin is unlikely (understatement alert!) to arrest and turn over the charged individuals; wide-ranging international sanctions have had minimal effect on a government that is believed to have bombed hospitals in Syria on behalf of kleptocrat Bashar al-Assad. And the hackers are unlikely to fess up, given the high risk of poisoning among honest Russians.[…] The stubborn resilience of the Russians, bred over centuries, is in aweird way the tragedy of the nation. – Washington Post

Peter Suciu writes: The issue however is that Washington and Moscow may not be on the same page for what they expect from such a treaty.[…]There are factors for the United States to consider, however, notably that Washington must deal with not only Moscow but also Beijing—as China continues to increase the size of its military, notably its navy, which has now become the largest in the world. – The National Interest

Africa

At least 1,300 prisoners escaped from a jail in the Democratic Republic of Congo early on Tuesday, the United Nations said, after an armed assault for which the Islamic State has claimed responsibility. – New York Times

Sudanese people and their government officials are celebrating the news that after 27 years the United States plans to remove the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism — a move that could help Sudan revive its ailing economy and bolster its transition to democratic rule. – New York Times

Nigerian security forces opened fire Tuesday night at a demonstration in Lagos against police brutality, hitting several people according to witnesses, in a major escalation of the unrest that has gripped the country for two weeks. – New York Times

Ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and other suspects wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and genocide in Darfur must face justice without further delay, the court’s chief prosecutor said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Burundi’s top court has sentenced a former president to life in prison for the 1993 murder of another president who had defeated him in elections, an attack that triggered a 10-year civil war in which about 300,000 people were killed. – Reuters

Mali’s military said on Tuesday it had air dropped food into a village in the centre of the country where more than 2,000 residents have been besieged by suspected Islamist militants for the past two weeks. – Reuters

U.S. pressure on Sudan to normalise ties with former adversary Israel has stirred public debate on a topic that was long taboo, exposing splits that could complicate any swift settlement of a deal. – Reuters

International donors agreed Tuesday to give $1.7 billion in humanitarian aid to the central Sahel, after the United Nations said the northern African region plagued by violence and climate change was at “breaking point”. – Agence France-Presse

Kenya has seen a setback in its progress to eradicate female genital mutilation (FGM) after an open parade in defiance of the government clampdown on the practice took place this week. – The Guardian

Cybersecurity

The Justice Department accused Google on Tuesday of illegally protecting its monopoly over search and search advertising, the government’s most significant challenge to a tech company’s market power in a generation and one that could reshape the way consumers use the internet. – New York Times

Voters in Florida and Alaska reported receiving menacing and deceptive emails on Tuesday that used false claims about public voting information to threaten voters: “Vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you.” (There is no way for any group to know for whom individual voters cast their ballots.) – New York Times

By repeating the racist tropes on the radio, Ms. Moncada spread it beyond her 45,000 Twitter followers and into South Florida’s mainstream broadcast media, a worrying circle of misinformation targeting Latino voters in the nation’s biggest presidential battleground state. – New York Times

After years of sometimes contentious discussions, the Army and Air Force have adopted a plan to work together on what they are now calling Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control — the idea that all of the U.S. military’s sensors and shooters must be able to send data to each other seamlessly and instantaneously. – C4ISRNET

The Pentagon’s top artificial intelligence office awarded five blanket purchasing agreements potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars for technical staffing services. – C4ISRNET

Japan said on Tuesday it would take countermeasures to ensure next year’s Tokyo Olympics are not derailed by cyberattacks after Britain and the United States accused Russia of orchestrating efforts to disrupt the Games. – Reuters

Sweden has banned telecoms equipment from Huawei and ZTE 000063.SZ in its 5G network, joining other European nations that have restricted the role of Chinese suppliers on security grounds. – Reuters

Within hours of the assassination of a history teacher by an 18-year-old Islamist in France on Friday, fingers were pointed at social media platforms for having helped motivate the killer before he decapitated Samuel Paty and then for allowing him to gruesomely claim responsibility moments afterwards. – Financial Times

Kara Swisher writes: This one is harder, but some breakup of its units, say a cleaving of Instagram and WhatsApp, might be a step in the right direction, along with figuring out a way to make its controversial editorial decisions more transparent and systemic rather than the more random Whatever Mark Zuckerberg Says This Week they have become.[…] Now it is finally taking action, but the question has to be asked: What does it know about all the others? – New York Times

David E. Sanger and Nicole Perlroth write: So while President Trump continues to dismiss the idea of Russian intervention, a combination of administration and industry officials are pushing a different narrative: that U.S. intelligence agencies, Facebook, Twitter, Google and others are avoiding the mistakes of four years ago, when they all had their radars off.[…]The question is whether these efforts, so late in the election cycle, will have the intended effect, since the president has already primed his supporters, and others, to distrust the “fake news,” the “deep state” and now, the election. – New York Times

Spencer Bokat-Lindell writes: The anti-democratic influence of tech monopolies is perhaps most obvious in the case of Facebook, where, as one whistle-blower claimed in a memo that leaked last month, individual midlevel workers are endowed with the ability to shape political reality for millions around the globe with little oversight and no public accountability.[…]That finding points to deeper problems than what content moderation policies can solve. – New York Times

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Those covering war crimes may find they cannot post photos of the crimes or evidence because it is “violent content” and “unsafe.” It is unclear when the next journalist and major media will be told their breaking news is being prevented from being posted, perhaps because a foreign government doesn’t want it posted, but the lack of transparency in how these decisions are made has already had a chilling affect. – Jerusalem Post

Long War

Less than a week after French teacher Samuel Paty was murdered and beheaded, Paris is uncovering the extent of the radicalization and hate networks that led to the unprecedented murder. – Jerusalem Post 

The Chechen teenager who beheaded a French teacher for showing caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad in class had contacted a school parent who prosecutors said used social media to whip up a hateful campaign against the victim, a police source said. – Reuters

Macron announced the Cabinet will on Wednesday dissolve a pro-Hamas organization known as Cheikh Yassine, which he said was “directly involved” in the gruesome assassination of Samuel Paty, the eighth-grade teacher who was killed after he showed caricatures of the Prophet Muhammed during a class discussion on freedom of speech. – Politico 

The pro-Israel education group StandWithUS has sent a letter to the CEO of Zoom asking the company to deplatform a planned webinar featuring a notorious Palestinian terrorist. – Algemeiner

Husain Haqqani writes: Although Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has assured his countrymen that Pakistan would soon get off the pre-sanctions watchlist of the U.N. money laundering and terror financing watchdog, it is unlikely that the international community will let Pakistan completely off the hook any time soon. – The Diplomat

Ido Levy: For its part, IS seems to be watching and waiting for the United States to relax. In Iraq and Syria, the group has kept a relatively low profile over the past several months, with its propaganda focusing on external affiliates. This tactic could signal that IS has learned how concentrating its efforts in one high-profile theater makes it more vulnerable to U.S. and international intervention. At the same time, recent IS territorial gains in Mozambique have gone largely unnoticed by the international community. Indeed, continuing to cultivate cells in Africa, India, and elsewhere—while maintaining a low-level presence in former territories and inspiring attacks abroad—could be the Islamic State’s next strategic phase. – Washington Institute

Trump Administration

Now, weeks before the election, “Spygate” — a labyrinthine conspiracy theory involving unproven allegations about a clandestine Democratic plot to spy on Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign — appears to be losing steam. – New York Times

Elliott Broidy, a former top fund-raiser for President Trump, pleaded guilty on Tuesday to conspiring to violate foreign lobbying laws as part of a covert campaign to influence the administration on behalf of Chinese and Malaysian interests. – New York Times

Lawmakers from across the political spectrum lauded the Justice Department for hitting Google with a major antitrust lawsuit on Tuesday, showcasing the broad bipartisan concern in Washington over the power the tech giant wields online. – Politico