Fdd's overnight brief

October 2, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

As Israel weighs how to respond to Tehran’s latest missile barrage, it could take a page from its previous playbook when, after days of deliberation, its military targeted a single Iranian military site. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military said Iran launched missiles at the country in a move that could risk a wider conflict in the region. The attack came after Israel earlier carried out cross-border raids into Lebanon to dislodge positions held by the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. – Wall Street Journal

Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday evening in a major attack with little advance warning, sending Israelis scrambling for shelter as the security cabinet convened in a bunker and the United States readied forces to come to Israel’s defense. – Washington Post

Sameh al-Asali was one of hundreds of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip sheltering in the city of Jericho in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, far from the war between Israel and Hamas back home. On Tuesday, a fragment of an Iranian missile fell on him, making him the only person known to be killed in the attack targeting Israel, a victim of the escalating regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.New York Times

Two Palestinian gunmen opened fire Tuesday on a light rail train in Tel Aviv, killing six people and injuring at least 12 others, the Israeli police and emergency services said. The police called the attack an act of terrorism and said one of the gunmen was killed on the scene, while the other was severely injured. – New York Times

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart late on Tuesday, hours after Iran’s missile attack on Israel following Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, and said Washington was “well-postured” to defend its interests in the Middle East. – Reuters

Hamas praised on Tuesday what it called Iran’s “heroic” missile attacks avenging the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan. – Reuters

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s missile attack on Israel failed and vowed retaliation. “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” he said at the outset of a political-security meeting. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.” – Reuters

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 37 people in Gaza on Tuesday, local medics said and fighting ramped up, as the Israeli military said it had been targeting command centres used by its Islamist militant foe Hamas. – Reuters

Israel has struck at least three anti-aircraft radar stations in southern Syria, including one stationed in a military airfield, two Syrian military sources told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

The 36th Division of the IDF will be joining the targeted raids on the Hezbollah terror group during Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military announced on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Israel must respond much more harshly against Iran’s massive ballistic missile strike on Tuesday than it did to a similar strike in April, former National Security Council Chief Yaakov Amidror has told the Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

A commando was seriously wounded during clashes in the West Bank overnight, the Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday, and three other troops in the Duvdevan unit were moderately hurt in a firefight in the Balata refugee camp adjacent to Nablus in the northern West Bank. – Times of Israel

Editorial: With all diplomatic initiatives to achieve those goals stymied throughout the year by Hezbollah, and with most of the world uncaring and apathetic that Israel’s North has been largely uninhabitable for nearly a year, it’s clear that Israel was left with no alternative but its current path of warfare. For many Israelis, the High Holy Days will be fraught with extra tension and anxiety with soldiers risking their lives in battle – in Gaza and now in Lebanon. Families are on tenterhooks praying for their well-being, and the ongoing heartbreaking and infuriating saga of the hostages is constantly tearing away at the fabric of our society. – Jerusalem Post

David Ignatius writes: Israel took its fateful decision last Wednesday night, before Netanyahu was about to leave Israel for New York to address the U.N. General Assembly. At that very moment, the Biden administration was floating a 21-day cease-fire plan for Lebanon, with senior White House officials implying to journalists that the truce would have Israeli support. How wrong they were. This round of the decades-old conflict goes to Israel. But if there’s one certainty about the Middle East, it’s that even with Israeli deterrence restored, more dreadful fighting lies ahead. – Wall Street Journal

Zachary Faria writes: UNRWA may not be a “terrorist body,” as Israel is (understandably) considering designating it, but there is no doubt that UNRWA is a terrorist enabler. That is true through the organization perpetuating the Palestinian “refugee crisis” in order to justify its continued existence. It is true through UNRWA’s headquarters housing an underground Hamas military compound (about which, again, UNRWA claims to somehow have had no idea). And it is true through the fact that it has once again been revealed that UNRWA was employing terrorists. – Washington Post

Bret Stephens writes: As for Israel, it has demonstrated again that its investment in missile-defense technologies that critics said would never work has paid off, chiefly in hundreds or thousands of lives saved. The same type of counter conventional wisdom will serve it well as it completes Hezbollah’s decapitation in Lebanon and Hamas’s evisceration in Gaza. Wars, once entered, need to be fought through to an unequivocal victory. That’s a point Americans have chosen to ignore in recent years, and not to our benefit. As Israelis consider their response to Iran’s missile outrage this week, they know they have no such luxury. – New York Times

Eli Lake writes: In other words, if Sullivan and Biden are serious, now would be the time to take off the handcuffs. Israel has vast capabilities—as it has shown in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Iran over the last year. But it’s even more capable when its chief ally supports its mission. So why not give Israel the green light and help it defang the chief cause of regional instability, the Iranian regime? Through pluck, daring, and ingenuity, Israel changed the dynamics of the war last month. Iran is wobbling. The win is there if the president takes it. – The Free Press

Tom Rogan writes: Still, Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. support. And it is not in the U.S. interest to see Israeli action that either attempts to decapitate the Iranian regime or degrade its nuclear facilities. That’s because such action would almost certainly lead to a full-scale war. It would mean terrorist attacks unleashed across the globe, a naval conflict in the Persian Gulf over energy transit routes, scaled-up ballistic missile attacks across the Middle East, and significant bloodshed on all sides. It would also drain U.S. air defense weapons reserves that are already far too limited to cope with the contingency of a war with China. And that war is likely coming before 2030. – Washington Examiner

Iran

Iran launched a barrage of about 200 missiles at Israel that were mostly shot down or missed their targets, escalating a Middle East conflict that now depends on whether and how Israel chooses to retaliate. – Wall Street Journal

Tehran will face “severe consequences” for its large-scale missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, the White House said, after the United States employed military force to help defend its closest Middle Eastern ally from Iranian fire for the second time in five months. – Washington Post

The long-feared “wider war” in the Middle East is here. For the last 360 days, since the images of the slaughter of about 1,200 people in Israel last Oct. 7 flashed around the world, President Biden has warned at every turn against allowing a terrorist attack by Hamas to spread into a conflict with Iran’s other proxy, Hezbollah, and ultimately with Iran itself. – New York Times

American naval forces helped Israel shoot down many of the approximately 180 incoming Iranian missiles on Tuesday evening, a shoulder-to-shoulder demonstration of military prowess that rendered the attack on Israeli cities “defeated and ineffective,” President Biden said. – New York Times

The direct military strike on Tuesday came after senior military commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps convinced the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that it was the only course of action if Iran wanted to appear strong, according to three Iranian officials. – New York Times

Iran’s foreign ministry called on the United Nations Security Council to take “meaningful action” to prevent threats against regional peace and security, after Tehran launched a salvo of missiles against Israel on Tuesday. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, said on Tuesday that Iran was a “dangerous” and “destabilizing” force in the Middle East and Washington was committed to Israel’s security. – Reuters

Iran exercised “self-defence” against Israel and its action is concluded unless the “Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on social media platform X early on Wednesday. – Reuters

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains in a secure location after Tehran fired missiles at Israel, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday. He was moved to a secure location after Israel assassinated Iran’s close ally Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week. – Reuters

Unidentified gunmen killed six people in two separate attacks Tuesday in the same province in southern Iran, including a local chief of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, state TV reported. – Associated Press

Iran on Tuesday boasted of its great success in launching a huge missile strike against Israel, which sparked celebrations in parts of the Muslim world, although the IDF said most of the projectiles were successfully intercepted. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Iran’s revolutionary regime has shown itself again to be a regional and global menace. It started this war via Hamas, which it funds, arms and trains to carry out massacres like the one on Oct. 7, and it escalated via Hezbollah, spreading war to Lebanon. Other proxies destabilize Iraq and Yemen, fire on Israeli and U.S. troops and block global shipping. It sends drones and missiles to Russia and rains ballistic missiles on Israel. All while seeking nukes. Escalating this confrontation now is a gamble for Iran. With Hamas depleted and Hezbollah in disarray, Iran’s proxies can’t defend it the way they usually would. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: Israel has no choice but to respond, Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, told me, as soon as the barrage had ended. This time he expected it to be swift, and on a much larger scale than in April. It may be that nobody was killed in Tuesday’s ballistic missile attack, he said, “but this is not a video game.” Besides, Iran’s second miscalculation presents Israel with an opportunity it’s unlikely to resist.
Bloomberg

Danielle Pletka writes: Finally, though Iran’s hopes of refuting claims of weakness have resulted only in confirmation, the question arises: What should the United States and Israel do? And the answer is straightforward: Hit them hard, take out access to their nuclear sites, take out their allies in Yemen, take out their allies in Iraq, and then take a breath, and ask the leadership of the Islamic Republic if it would like to stand down. – The National Interest

Russia & Ukraine

NATO’s new leader pledged continued support for beleaguered Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion and vowed to put pressure on China to curtail its support of Moscow, whoever wins the U.S. presidential election. – Wall Street Journal

Think of Russia’s most dangerous jobs and the role of research scientist doesn’t immediately spring to mind. Coal miner, maybe. Or a deep sea diver on the Barents Sea oil rigs. The same kinds of jobs that are dangerous anywhere. But over the past six years, at least a dozen scientists, many of whom conducted research in the field of high-speed aerodynamics or hypersonics, have been arrested. – Wall Street Journal

But what happened next turned the battle into a math problem. More enemy soldiers arrived, some in armored vehicles. Russian support fire with drones and artillery poured down on the outgunned Ukrainians, said Andrii Bilozir, the senior sergeant for the unit’s first battalion. The soldiers of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade had to withdraw. – Washington Post

An August prisoner exchange freed a number of Russia’s most prominent political prisoners, but more than 1,300 remain in custody, according to Mariana Katzarova, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Russia. A similar exchange in the future is unlikely, with Western pressure focused largely on foreign prisoners. – Washington Post

For nearly three years, the mining town of Vuhledar has underpinned Ukraine’s defense of its southern Donbas region, the industrial heart of the country that has become a tableau of desolation and destruction. – New York Times

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had launched an investigation into what it said was an apparent shooting dead by Russian troops of 16 Ukrainian prisoners of war, soldiers who had surrendered on the eastern front line. – Reuters

Russian troops are in complete control of the town of Vuhledar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, the SHOT Telegram channel and pro-Russian war bloggers said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russia will run a nationwide test of its emergency public warning systems on Wednesday, letting sirens wail and interrupting television and radio broadcasts in a twice-yearly initiative amid the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

An apparent Russian artillery strike hit a market in the southern Ukraine city of Kherson on Tuesday, killing at least six people and wounding three others, authorities said, on a morning when Ukrainians across the country were observing a minute’s silence for their military and war dead. – Associated Press

Federico Borsari writes: According to the CEO of one European drone and software company that this author consulted, this can happen only through a reform of defense production and procurement processes, so “the application-level software is decoupled from the hardware it runs on, tapping into commercial software solutions to build many more functionalities rather than having a few primes that produce everything.” This would create greater price pressure and competition, generate a broader range of solutions, and facilitate cross-collaboration between the military and commercial sectors, unlocking the potential for speed, interoperability, and rapid iteration that software guarantees. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Julian Spencer-Churchill and Ben Ollerenshaw write: To deter Russian or Chinese goading of Iran and its allies, European NATO and the United States should jointly deploy a two-brigade force with air and naval support near the Persian Gulf, perhaps deployed on Masirah or Socotra Island or the UAE (possibly with Indian and Pakistani buy-in), to act in the event the Straits of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb are interdicted. The United States must concurrently persuade Israel and Washington’s Near Eastern Arab allies to converge on a political solution that avoids the constant drain of U.S. war materiel, which would be a grave impediment in the event of a regional war with Russia or China. – The National Interest

Andreas Umland and Julia Kazdobina write: On the other hand, the Ukrainian press also praised some of the new ministers appointed in September for their organizational skills. These include Herman Smetanin, the former head of the state arms company Ukroboronprom, who was appointed Minister for the Development of Strategic Industries. Oleksiy Kuleba (no relation to Dmytro Kuleba), the former deputy head of the Presidential Department for Regional Policy with a good reputation, was appointed Minister for Municipal Development, Territories, and Infrastructure. – The National Interest

Hezbollah

Israel said that it has been secretly conducting dozens of raids into Lebanon for the past 11 months, as part of an effort to destroy Hezbollah weapons and military infrastructure ahead of a broader ground incursion that began Monday night. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon destroyed about half of the missiles and rockets that Hezbollah had accumulated over more than three decades, dealing a blow to the militia’s capabilities, according to senior Israeli and American officials. – New York Times

The Israeli military said on Tuesday it killed the commander of the Imam Hussein division in Beirut, a Hezbollah-linked group based in Syria, Al-Faqar Hanawi, in parallel with killing Muhammad Jaafar Qasir, a commander in charge of weapons transfers from Iran and its affiliates to Lebanese armed group Hezbollah earlier in the day. – Reuters

The IDF conducted targeted strikes in the area of Beirut against a number of  Hezbollah weapon production facilities and terror infrastructure sites over the past few days, Israel’s military announced on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Matthew Levitt writes: But over the past several months the Israeli military destroyed nearly all Hezbollah infrastructure along the border, including these observation towers, and Israeli warplanes continued to dominate the skies of Lebanon. Still, the spider web analogy stuck and was echoed by other senior Hezbollah leaders. As recently as this month, following the explosion of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies, Mr. Nasrallah appeared on Hezbollah’s satellite television station and calmly assured “the reckoning will come.” It did, just for Mr. Nasrallah himself and the organization he led. – Washington Institute

Lebanon

Hezbollah, the Iran-funded Shiite Muslim militia that doubles as a major political party and social services organization, does not run Lebanon in any official sense. But under Mr. Nasrallah, it sometimes seemed as if it was the only force that mattered: a state within a state with its own military, schools, hospitals and youth programs. – New York Times

The repeated blasts in Beirut’s southern suburbs where Israel has been carrying out airstrikes this week have driven Zeina Nazha and her young daughter to camp on a city beach seeking safety from the war in Lebanon. – Reuters

Lebanon’s Transport Minister Ali Hamie said on Tuesday that flights were only allowed to take off towards the west, following Iran’s launching of a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel. – Reuters

A French helicopter carrier will arrive in the eastern Mediterranean in the next five to six days and take up position in case a decision is taken to evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon, a French army spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Yemen

In the days since Israel intensified its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the strike that killed the militant group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been quick to show they are an important player in the complex conflicts convulsing the Middle East. – Associated Press

Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched an explosive-loaded drone that crashed into one ship Tuesday in the Red Sea and a missile that exploded against another. – Associated Press

Editorial: The objective of such escalated actions would be to deter Houthi strikes or degrade the group’s ability to carry out attacks. The shift is needed. The current strategy is failing, and the Houthis know it. Kurilla knows it. The international shipping industry knows it. Israel has reminded the U.S. how to deal with emboldened terrorists. It isn’t by sending large numbers of ships to float in the Red Sea waiting to swat the occasional Houthi fly with multimillion-dollar missiles. It’s to take whatever action necessary to impose new costs on the aggressor. – Washington Examiner

Middle East & North Africa

Israel’s neighbours closed airspace and airline crews skirted an escalating conflict, with many seeking diversions, after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Tunisian court sentenced presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel to 12 years in prison on Tuesday, amid growing opposition anger against President Kais Saied, whose critics accuse him of using the judiciary to sideline his opponents. – Reuters

Libya was preparing to restart oil production that has been shut since late of August after an agreement on a new head of the central bank was reached, two oilfield engineers told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Global markets sank and oil soared Tuesday, after Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel, prompting fears of a region-wide conflagration after almost a year of war between Israel and the Hamas terror group in Gaza. – Agence France-Presse

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered on Wednesday military aircraft to be deployed immediately to evacuate its citizens from Israel and other parts of the Middle East amid escalating tension, his office said. – Reuters

A North Korean defector living in South Korea was detained on Tuesday after ramming a stolen bus into a barricade on a bridge near the heavily militarised border, in an apparent attempt to get back to the North, Yonhap news agency reported. – Reuters

South Korea’s factory activity contracted at the sharpest pace in 15 months in September as overseas demand slowed for the first time in the year, a private survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting a slow road to a full-blown economic recovery. – Reuters

China

Final investment decisions for hydrogen projects have doubled over the last 12 months, dominated by China, but installed capacity and demand are low as the industry faces uncertainty, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Wednesday. – Reuters

A Chinese coast guard fleet has entered the Arctic sea for the first time, for a joint patrol with Russian counterparts, state media reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund is “too polite” when it comes to criticizing China’s economic policies and should more fully disclose financing assurances given by China and some other countries to support IMF loan programs, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

China has not retaliated against U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports partly because of continued dialogue between the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. Treasury’s top economic diplomat said in an interview aired on Tuesday. – Reuters

British finance ministry officials and their Chinese counterparts are in detailed discussions about staging a first high-level meeting between top finance officials since 2019, Sky News reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

New NATO secretary general Mark Rutte said on Tuesday that China had become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine. “(China) cannot continue to fuel the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War without this impact in its interests and reputation.” he said. – Reuters

Catherine Thorbecke writes: China’s use of national interests as an incentive for innovation isn’t as far off from an all-too-American playbook that predated the US tech revolution. Like the space race during the US-Soviet Union Cold War that paved the way for Silicon Valley, many of these developments may end up having a dual use, providing downstream benefits to consumers. – Bloomberg

Minxin Pei writes: In the meantime, Xi should quietly make clear to Putin his preference for freezing the conflict. When the gap between Ukraine and Russia is narrow enough, the nudge can become more explicit. That risks alienating the Russian leader, of course. But given his dependence on Chinese support, a real rift is unlikely. China is already paying a high cost for Putin’s war. It’s worth taking more substantial risks to end it. – Bloomberg

Seth G. Jones writes: A year before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into World War II, Roosevelt exhorted the country to “build now with all possible speed every machine, every arsenal, every factory that we need to manufacture our defense material.” China’s rapid rearmament and the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are signs that the clouds are darkening. To be ready for a wartime environment, the United States must once again follow Roosevelt’s advice. – Foreign Affairs

Joshua Busby, Morgan Bazilian, and Emily Holland write: Being strategic about clean technology will require clear-eyed thinking about how to support and build domestic capabilities in the United States. Clean technology is a vital growth sector where the United States has fallen behind China. To get back in the game, the United States could allow specific areas of trade and investment with China to give U.S. firms the ability to better learn from China’s recent manufacturing experience — while shoring up supply chains globally and ensuring recent investments in domestic production and processing stay on track. – War on the Rocks

South Asia

India does not share the vision for an “Asian NATO” called for by Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Indian police on Tuesday said they had released 912 Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and union members detained for almost a day for organising a street protest, as a strike at the South Korean firm’s home appliances plant in Tamil Nadu state entered its fourth week. – Reuters

India’s market regulator tightened the rules for equity derivatives trading on Tuesday, raising the entry barrier and making it more costly to trade in the asset class, despite pushback from investors. –Reuters

Asia

The Bank of Japan should weigh any additional interest-rate increases carefully in order to avoid the risk of cooling the economy too much, the country’s new economics minister said Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal

Japan’s new prime minister pledged to aim for a complete exit from deflation and asked the Bank of Japan to maintain accommodative monetary conditions. – Wall Street Journal

Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Wednesday he wanted to strengthen his nation’s alliance with the United States in his first call with President Joe Biden. – Reuters

Thailand has seen a surge in illegal drugs trafficked from neighbouring Myanmar and a sharp increase in methamphetamines and heroin seizures, as a civil war adds fuel to the regional drug trade, a senior Thai counter-narcotics official said. – Reuters

Cambodia said on Tuesday the U.S. Navy would be welcome to visit its Ream Naval Base, which the Pentagon is concerned will become a Chinese outpost. – Reuters

The U.S. Commerce Department on Tuesday announced anti-subsidy countervailing duties on solar cells imported by companies in Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand that were lower than some expected for several major Chinese producers. – Reuters

Malaysia is expanding oil and gas exploration in the disputed South China Sea despite pressure from Chinese vessels that have maintained a constant presence in waters where both sides have overlapping claims, according to a new report. – Bloomberg

Europe

A suspected Chinese spy ring in Germany was collecting information about U.S. arms shipments to Israel and Germany’s weapon industry, German officials said on Tuesday, adding a new dimension to the expanding investigation. – Wall Street Journal

Britain’s Conservative Party suffered the worst election defeat of its modern history less than three months ago. Yet one would be hard pressed to find much evidence of it at the party’s annual conference in Birmingham, where the drinks flowed, conversation crackled and the mood could be only described as light. – New York Times

In his first appearance before France’s fractured lower house of Parliament, Prime Minister Michel Barnier pleaded on Tuesday with lawmakers to work with his government on tackling the country’s most pressing issues, first and foremost a looming budget crisis. – New York Times

British forces played a role on Tuesday in preventing further escalation fuelled by Iran’s missile attack, the defence secretary said after Prime Minister Keir Starmer assured Israel of his “steadfast commitment” to the country’s security. – Reuters

European automakers are the most likely to be affected by the dockworkers strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports because they rely heavily on those locations, but a longer walkout could prove “debilitating” to the entire sector, industry officials and analysts said. – Reuters

Danish police said on Wednesday they were investigating two blasts in the immediate vicinity of Israel’s embassy in the northern outskirts of Copenhagen. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will push for a reset of relations when he meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday for what Brussels described as a “first conversation” on issues like trade, security and youth mobility. – Reuters

Austria’s conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer urged the country’s president on Tuesday to task the far-right Freedom Party with forming a coalition after it won Sunday’s general election, even though its chances of succeeding appear slim. – Reuters

France’s new Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced Tuesday that a provincial election scheduled for December in the restive French Pacific territory of New Caledonia has been postponed for a year. – Associated Press

Dessie Zagorcheva writes: This proposed legislation would severely restrict civil society groups and independent media by requiring organizations and individuals receiving over €500 in foreign funding annually to register as foreign agents.Although Revival failed to gather enough support for this law in 2022, it may succeed after the October 27 election if not firmly opposed now. The latest opinion polls show Revival with 15.6%  in second place, overtaking the anti-corruption, pro-EU We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition with 15.1%, while GERB leads with 24.8%. It’s time the EU got off the fence and became serious. The risks are very considerable. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Africa

Allies of Kenyan President William Ruto launched a motion in parliament on Tuesday to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, accusing him of stirring ethnic hatred and undermining the government. – Reuters

Ivory Coast’s ruling party has expressed its support for President Alassane Ouattara seeking a fourth term in 2025, making it more likely that the 82-year-old will run again. – Reuters

Ethiopia expects “tangible progress” by December towards an agreement in principle with creditor nations, it said in a presentation to private bondholders on Tuesday, as it seeks to put its debt rework on track. – Reuters

Major shareholders at the International Monetary Fund are urging Kenya to request an IMF assessment of corruption and governance issues as part of a push to unlock lending that has been stalled by the shelving of tax hikes, three sources said. – Reuters

The Americas

The plane transporting Brazil’s president landed in Mexico City on Tuesday night, the Brazilian Air Force said, after the aircraft was forced to circle the area for hours due to an undisclosed technical problem. – Reuters

In Argentina’s poor barrios a food emergency is taking hold as poverty rises, with malnutrition on the increase and medics treating children for eye diseases and even scurvy linked to a vitamin-deficient diet. – Reuters

Guatemalan security agents arrested 25 mostly active police officers implicated in a human trafficking network that operated along a route used by mostly U.S.-bound migrants, Interior Minister Francisco Jimenez said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Elizabeth Dickinson writes: Dialogue, partial agreements, and a more targeted military response to armed groups that do not negotiate in good faith can help the country map a way out of its ongoing internal conflicts. Reducing violence against civilians can help restore public trust in the state and in negotiations. Coordination between negotiators and the military can ensure that state pressure is applied in a manner that benefits both. The alternative to this pragmatic approach is a return to all-out war. The Colombian public, armed groups, the military, and many outside observers fear that this is the likeliest outcome. Petro has two years to change tack and prove them wrong. – Foreign Affairs

North America

As Mexico’s first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum is taking over a country that her popular mentor, departing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has profoundly changed in just a few months since her landslide victory. – Wall Street Journal

Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in Tuesday as North America’s first female president, taking office with the largest mandate since Mexico became a democracy a quarter-century ago. – Washington Post

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau survived a second parliamentary confidence motion in less than a week on Tuesday after opposition parties vowed to keep his minority Liberal government alive for now. – Reuters

China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it has asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) to rule on Canada’s imposition of steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles as well as steel and aluminum products. – Reuters

Canada published a list of dozens of Chinese steel and aluminum products on which it will place a 25% tariff, starting in three weeks. – Bloomberg

United States

JD Vance sought to temper Donald Trump’s more controversial rhetoric on issues like abortion, immigration and guns during a vice presidential debate Tuesday night, as an occasionally tense Tim Walz offered a defense of Kamala Harris’s record and argued that Trump poses a danger to democracy. – Wall Street Journal

It was a political joust with a healthy side of Midwest nice. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) shook hands twice Tuesday before the only vice-presidential debate of the cycle, exchanging broad smiles before repeatedly paying each other respect as they launched sustained and biting attacks on each other’s running mates. – Washington Post

The United States is raising new concerns about China’s practice of making emergency loans to debt-ridden countries, warning that a lack of transparency surrounding such financing can mask the fiscal predicaments facing fragile economies that have turned to China for help. – New York Times

US Vice Presidential hopeful Tim Walz said he “misspoke” about being in Hong Kong when the deadly Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 erupted, without directly clarifying his whereabouts on June 4 of that year. – Bloomberg

Former President Donald Trump used Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Tuesday to slam Vice President Kamala Harris, blasting her and President Joe Biden as “grossly incompetent” and threatening that they “are leading us to the brink of World War III.” – Politico

Editorial: Mr. Vance got the better of the rebuttal by saying that, no matter his tweets and temperament, Mr. Trump understands effective deterrence and showing strength to adversaries. Mr. Vance said it is Israel’s choice about how to respond to Iran’s missile attack and the U.S. should support Israel if it does. That answer will resonate in Tehran and elsewhere more than Mr. Walz’s equivocation. Since we’re not hearing this from either of the presidential candidates, we’re glad Mr. Vance sent that message. Coping with world disorder may be the most important challenge the next President faces. – Wall Street Journal

Seth Cropsey and Harry Halem write: The U.S. must also demonstrate its ability to endure and sustain a long war. Public condemnations of Russia, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah and insistence that the U.S. will support Ukraine “as long as it takes” are no substitute for tangible actions toward those ends. Iran and Russia are pursuing strategies of exhaustion because they believe the U.S. will eventually break. – Wall Street Journal

Joseph Bosco writes: Biden is clearly intimidated by Putin’s threats of retaliation, as stated again last week regarding Zelensky’s request for longer strike authority. “This will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia,” said Putin.” We will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”  If Biden and Harris refuse to provide Ukraine the weapons and authority it needs to win and instead consign it to a slow, grinding war of attrition, then their inspiring rhetoric rings hollow. What they really offer is just a more protracted version of Trump’s plan to pull the plug on U.S. support for Ukraine. Ukrainians, and the rules-based international order, require more from all three. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

Oracle Corp plans to invest more than $6.5 billion to establish a public cloud region in Malaysia, aiming to meet the country’s growing demand for artificial intelligence and cloud services. – Wall Street Jourrnal

Julian Assange, the founder of whistleblower media group WikiLeaks, told European lawmakers on Tuesday his guilty plea to U.S. espionage accusations was necessary because legal and political efforts to protect his freedom were not sufficient. – Reuters

OpenAI unveiled a host of new tools on Tuesday that would make it easier for developers to build applications based on its artificial intelligence technology, as the ChatGPT maker wrestles with tech giants to keep up in the generative AI race. – Reuters

An international consortium of law enforcement agencies on Tuesday announced additional arrests, seizures and sanctions targeting LockBit ransomware infrastructure, the latest actions taken to hobble what was once among the most prolific ransomware operations going. – Cyberscoop

Mark P. Mills writes: As a society, we’re capable of building more Three Mile Island-scale reactors and inventing newer, smaller ones. But that will take time. Meanwhile, data centers are proliferating at a furious pace. The U.S. is home to nearly half of the world’s existing and planned capacity for data centers. Fortunately, we also have the world’s biggest low-cost natural-gas system, a synergy that markets will exploit. There are those who worry about China’s dominance in EVs. China, one suspects, is more worried about U.S. dominance in data centers. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

Defense firm Anduril Industries announced Tuesday it has selected startup Apex to provide satellite buses, the spacecraft’s trunk designed to house payloads, for its future military space missions. – Defense News

Two Navy destroyers launched around a dozen interceptors to help defend Israel against a massive attack by Iran on Tuesday, the Pentagon said. – Defense News

The Pentagon announced its first direct lending tool Monday, offering loans to U.S. companies that make in-demand defense component technologies. – Defense News

Ben Coates writes: When Mr. Luns, who was well over six feet tall, took office in 1971, this publication reported that a looming U.S. presidential election and Soviet belligerence meant “the enormous Dutchman who is NATO’s new secretary general … has a big enough sack of troubles to suit some somber kind of Santa Claus.” More than half a century later, Mr. Rutte’s sack of troubles may be even bigger. Can he deliver? – New York Times