Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of last year’s Oct. 7 attack, officials said Thursday, dealing a major blow to the militant group and achieving one of Israel’s top objectives for the war. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli military released a video on Thursday showing a drone flying into a building in Rafah, where a man the video identifies as Yahya Sinwar is sitting on a chair. The Israeli military described the video as showing Mr. Sinwar “moments before his elimination.” – New York Times

The killing of Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces dealt a fatal blow to Hamas, France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Thursday, adding that a page must now be turned to work towards peace in Gaza and the wider region. – Reuters

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, slammed UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres for a post on X/Twitter where Gutteres referred to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as “intolerable” shortly after the Thursday announcement of the IDF’s elimination of former Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar. – Jerusalem Post

Families of hostages held captive in Gaza on Thursday welcomed the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar while urging the government to leverage his death to secure an immediate deal for the release of their loved ones after over a year in captivity. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered Hamas terrorists a deal in which they would release the hostages in exchange for free passage out of the Gaza Strip. – Haaretz

Editorial: This means control or careful monitoring of the Gaza border with Egypt from which Hamas built up its tunnels and arms. Israel has shown through its fortitude since Oct. 7 that the best way to deter an adversary is to demonstrate ferocious retribution for murdering its people. It deserves support as it continues to re-establish that deterrence. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Mr. Netanyahu calls the end of Sinwar “the beginning of the day after Hamas.” He tells Gazans that “Sinwar ruined your life. He told you he was a lion, but in reality he was hiding in a dark den.” The premier promises immunity to anyone who releases hostages, but warns that “whoever harms our hostages, his blood will be on his head. We will come to a reckoning with him.” It is, one could say, a choice between a blessing and a curse. – New York Sun

David Ignatius writes: He hid the details for more than two years by pretending that Hamas wanted peace and prosperity in Gaza. “We can be like Singapore, like Dubai,” he told one of Remnick’s sources. Netanyahu swallowed Sinwar’s lie and nearly choked on it. When Netanyahu says the war isn’t over yet, we should take him at his word. But that “day after” is ahead, and if Israel doesn’t prepare wisely for it, a new generation of Sinwars might be coming, too. – Washington Post

Zvika Klein writes: But today, we have an opportunity to break that cycle. We can bring the hostages home, dismantle Hamas, and give the people of Gaza a chance at a future worth fighting for. Let’s not waste this moment. The world is watching, and Gaza is waiting for something – anything – different. Let’s take this chance to bring the hostages home and create a new Gaza, free from terror and open to the possibility of peace. If not now, when? – Jerusalem Post

Matti Friedman writes: Sinwar was the man responsible more than any other for this war, but his death in a booby-trapped house in Rafah—he was reportedly found with a rifle, ammo, cash, a pack of Mentos, prayer beads, and a passport under someone else’s name—doesn’t mean it’s over. He’ll quickly be replaced as Hamas’s leader, probably by his brother and accomplice Mohammed. The organization is in tatters but hasn’t collapsed. His death, however, does bring the end of the fighting closer in Gaza. – The Free Press

Russia & Ukraine

Looking at a map, a Ukrainian infantry captain zeroed in on a quarter-mile-wide strip of land that has become one of the most dangerous places on the front line. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to drum up support for his “victory plan” at NATO on Thursday, but a key part of it, an invitation to join the military alliance, appeared elusive. – Washington Post

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its forces had taken control of the village of Maksymilianivka, less than 10 km (6 miles) from the key city of Kurakhove in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday sanctioned two Chinese companies and a Russian affiliate involved in making and shipping attack drones and warned the two countries to halt cooperation boosting the Ukraine war effort. – Reuters

Ukraine’s prime minister appealed at a meeting in Switzerland on Thursday for more help clearing landmines and unexploded bombs covering up to a quarter of the country – making it the most mined nation in the world. – Reuters

Russian forces attacked energy infrastructure in the southern region of Mykolaiv as they launched 56 drones and one missile in an overnight assault on Ukraine. – Reuters

Google, Meta and TikTok have removed social media accounts belonging to an industrial plant in Russia’s Tatarstan region aimed at recruiting young foreign women to make drones for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – Associated Press

This year has seen President Vladimir Putin repeatedly brandish the nuclear sword, reminding everyone that Russia has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to try to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine. – Associated Press

Hal Brands writes: So no settlement will last unless the West gives Ukraine the long-term security guarantees, and the military and financial assistance, necessary to convince Putin that resuming the conflict is a bad idea. If the US, under Trump or Harris, doesn’t confront that problem squarely, the end of this Russia-Ukraine war could simply start the countdown to the next one. – Bloomberg

Lebanon

A German warship operating as part of the United Nations’ UNIFIL peacekeeping mission shot down a drone off the coast of Lebanon on Thursday, the German defence ministry told Reuters, as unease builds over the safety of the U.N. troops in the country. – Reuters

Norway’s embassy in Lebanon’s capital Beirut has been evacuated on Thursday following a bomb threat, the Norwegian ministry of foreign affairs said. – Reuters

Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV said on Thursday its office in Beirut had been evacuated after the building received several warnings. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

A ​South Korean court on Thursday ​acquitted the former ​police chief of Seoul of criminal charges stemming from the Halloween crowd crush in 2022 that killed 159 people. – New York Times

Ukraine’s president accused North Korea on Thursday of deploying officers alongside Russia and preparing to send thousands of troops to help Moscow’s war effort, although NATO’s chief said there was no evidence of Pyongyang’s presence at this stage. – Reuters

South Korea said on Friday North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia is a grave security threat to the international community and it will respond to the move with all available means, the presidential office said in a statement. – Reuters

Jihwan Hwang writes: Kim Jong-un seems to be using the Russian alliance as leverage to draw China into a broader anti-U.S. coalition on the Korean Peninsula. Kim has repeatedly emphasized the creation of a new Cold War order and a multipolar system, aiming to establish a security bloc of Russia, China, and North Korea to counter U.S.-Japan-South Korean cooperation. – The National Interest

South Asia

More than two dozen doctors in India have been on an indefinite hunger strike for nearly two weeks, one of many nationwide protests demanding a safer work environment set off by the  rape and killing of a medical resident in August. – New York Times

In the two months since Bangladesh’s prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled amid mass protests, the country’s 170 million people have had the chance, for the first time in 15 years, to chart a new future out of what remains a deeply uncertain period. – New York Times

India’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that despite requests from New Delhi, Canada had not taken any action against members of a gang that Canadian police have accused of being linked to Indian government agents in the 2023 murder of a Sikh separatist leader, that has created a rupture in ties. – Reuters

The visit of India’s foreign minister to Pakistan earlier this week was a “good beginning” that could lead to a thaw in relations between the two rivals, former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was quoted as saying by Indian media on Friday. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal on Thursday issued an arrest warrant for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, currently in India, citing her alleged involvement in mass killings during violent protests that erupted earlier this year. – Reuters

Pakistani police fired tear gas and charged at student protesters who ransacked a college building Thursday, as anger spread over an alleged on-campus rape, prompting the government to shut schools, colleges and universities for two days. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: India simply doesn’t have enough to offer at the moment. It may in the future — but today, it is asking for things on trust. As disquiet about India grows, trust in India dies. We need to be a little less sanguine about how we are seen around the world. It may be tempting to beat up on polite Canada and to throw our weight around. But it’s hardly in New Delhi’s long-term interest to be seen as a bully. – Bloomberg

Aparna Pande writes: A less likely scenario, but the only one in which India moves from being a regional to a global player, is one characterized by increased Chinese incursions on land and sea and Sino-Russian deepening security cooperation, forcing New Delhi’s hand. That would result in the Indian state finally having to become strategic in its defense acquisitions and planning. In this scenario, India increases the proportion of its defense spending relative to GDP and makes critical investments in its navy, air force and army. – GIS Reports

Europe

Moldova’s police chief, appointed by a government committed to joining the European Union and leaving Russia’s orbit, was alarmed to find his country’s capital suddenly plastered with posters bearing a blunt message: “No EU.” – New York Times

The EU’s foreign policy chief on Thursday appeared to criticise the United States giving Israel one month to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza, saying that during that time, too many people would die. – Reuters

Germany will continue to help Israel defend itself by supplying weapons, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday, adding that Israel must abide by international law and that a two-state solution was the ultimate goal. – Reuters

Ten years to the day after the formal launch of the U.S.-led operation against the Islamic State, the United States and its NATO allies gathered in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the future of a mission facing increasing headwinds. – Reuters

European Union leaders agreed on Thursday to use all their leverage, including trade, development aid and visa policy, to speed up returns of migrants illegally entering the bloc and asked the European Commission to urgently draft a law. – Reuters

Moldovan police said on Thursday they had uncovered a programme in which hundreds of its citizens were brought to Russia to undergo training to stage riots and civil unrest, the latest in a slew of meddling allegations ahead of Sunday’s election. – Reuters

The conservative Dutch government is looking into sending rejected African asylum seekers to Uganda, Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on Thursday, while acknowledging it might not be feasible. – Reuters

Portugal’s biggest opposition party said it plans to let the 2025 budget proposal pass in parliament, a key step for the survival of the country’s minority government. – Bloomberg

Estonia’s prime minister accused Russia of creating a “deliberate humanitarian crisis” through its systemic destruction of Ukraine’s power grid ahead of the coming winter. – Bloomberg

Emmanuel Macron’s comments that Israel owes its existence to a UN resolution have sparked unease in France, with the president being rebuked by the upper house speaker but also facing disquiet from within his ranks. – Agence France-Presse

Daniel Kochis writes: The U.K. holds a brigade at high readiness at home to be quickly deployed to augment the enhanced forward presence battalion based in Estonia. The Baltic states recognize that Putin and his ilk are unlikely to give up on their imperial designs. These small nations are therefore coolly but doggedly taking steps to bolster deterrence. Russia might just lose its appetite if the entree looks nearly impossible to digest. – The Hill

Aura Sabadus writes: However, the experience of past years shows that in the absence of EU-aligned reform that brings transparency, accountability, and resource diversification, Moldova’s security would be hanging by a very thin thread that could be severed by the Kremlin at any moment. For that reason, an emphatic yes in the upcoming referendum is not only a vote for a better, more prosperous future but also a vote for Moldova’s existence as a country. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

The leader of Brazil’s biggest right-wing party cannot speak to his candidate for the 2026 presidential election by court order, even though his office is across the corridor. – Reuters

Uruguay’s center-left presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi, the frontrunner in polls ahead of elections this month, plans to avoid unpopular tax hikes despite a growing deficit, instead looking to spur faster economic growth in the farming nation. – Reuters

Argentina has received and is analyzing Brazil’s request for the extradition of Brazilian nationals currently in the neighboring country who are linked to an alleged 2023 coup attempt, Argentine presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni said on Thursday. – Reuters

Venezuela has detained three Americans and two others for alleged terrorist activities, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said on Thursday, marking an increase in the count of foreign prisoners in the South American country. – Reuters

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar said on Thursday that there is no pause in the strong relations between the Mexican government and the U.S. embassy in the country. – Reuters

Venezuela lawmakers ousted a national electoral board member who declared irregularities around President Nicolás Maduro’s reelection in July and urged the Prosecutor’s Office to promptly initiate a criminal investigation into him. – Bloomberg

Chile Interior Ministry Undersecretary Manuel Monsalve stepped down following reports that he’s being investigated for rape, a shock development that robs the government of one of its top crime-fighting officials. – Bloomberg

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will shuffle his cabinet in the coming weeks as a handful of ministers have decided not to run in the next election, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

A 25-year-old Alabama man has been arrested and charged with hacking into the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Twitter/X account earlier this year and making fake regulatory posts that artificially inflated the price of Bitcoin by more than $1,000 per unit. – CyberScoop

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) reported that a cyberattack temporarily disrupted its website earlier this week, coinciding with the start of the country’s general election campaign. – The Record

Kroger’s plans to roll out facial recognition tools at its grocery stores is attracting increased criticism from lawmakers, who warn that it could be exploited to increase the prices certain individuals pay for food and put customers’ personal data at risk. – The Record