Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged as a wartime leader of a regional superpower, who resisted enormous pressure to halt its two-year conflict with Hamas and inflicted severe damage on Israel’s enemies. – Wall Street Journal

Israel and Hamas began negotiating the second phase of a plan outlined by President Trump to end the war in Gaza, as debates continued about the militant group’s failure to return all the bodies of dead hostages as required in the first phase. – Wall Street Journal

As soon as the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas was in sight last week, Lee Moser, who runs two Israeli venture funds, said she felt a change in sentiment from limited partners. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, said on Wednesday night that it had handed over all of the remains of Israeli hostages that it had been able to recover without additional equipment, potentially putting a cease-fire with Israel in the Gaza Strip at risk. – New York Times

Aid trucks rolled into Gaza on Wednesday and Israel resumed preparations to open the main Rafah crossing as Hamas handed over more bodies of dead hostages, following a dispute that had threatened the fragile ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave. – Reuters

Planning has begun for an international force to go into Gaza to stabilize security in the Palestinian enclave, two senior U.S. advisers said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Palestinian Authority said on Wednesday it is prepared to operate a key crossing for aid between Egypt and Gaza, while raising concerns about who will pay for the reconstruction of the devastated enclave after two years of war. – Reuters

Israel expects Palestinian militant group Hamas to return the remaining hostages to Israel, a government spokeswoman said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip is expected to reopen to allow people to cross on Thursday with an EU mission set to deploy there, two sources told Reuters. – Reuters

The U.S. military’s Middle East command on Wednesday called on Hamas to stop its violence against civilians in Gaza and disarm “without delay” as the militant group reasserts itself by deploying security forces and executing those it deems collaborators with Israel. – Reuters

Israel’s military aid agency COGAT said on Thursday preparations are ongoing with Egypt to open the major Rafah border crossing with Gaza for the movement of people, with the date to be announced at a later stage. – Reuters

A German foreign ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday that reported executions by Hamas in Gaza in clashes with local clans constitute acts of terror against the population but Germany sees an unchanged need to provide humanitarian aid to Palestinians. – Reuters

Israel threatened to resume attacks on Gaza if Hamas does not go through with all the steps outlined in US President Donald Trump’s peace plan. – Bloomberg

The Palestinian Authority on Tuesday night condemned recent Hamas summary executions of Palestinians in Gaza as “heinous crimes” and urged a return of “legitimate” Palestinian leadership to stem the chaos roiling the Strip amid the ceasefire with Israel. – Agence France-Presse

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he would consider allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resume military action in Gaza if Hamas refuses to uphold its end of the ceasefire deal, telling CNN that Israeli forces could return to the streets “as soon as I say the word.” – CNN

The Israel Defense Forces said it fired warning rounds overnight after several suspected Palestinians approached the “yellow line” buffer area along northern Gaza, while troops carried out a separate arrest sweep in the West Bank city of Kalkilya. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: For the families still waiting, the state must not allow them to remain in limbo, in life or in death. Ultimately, the struggle to retrieve the dead is existential. It speaks to Israel’s covenant with its people – that no citizen, living or dead, will be abandoned. Completing this final act of return will mark not just the end of a tragedy, but a restoration of national honor. – Jerusalem Post

Robert Satloff writes: Even with the best intentions and oversight from headquarters, this will be a bonanza for Hamas’s well-oiled media operation, which has controlled virtually every word written or broadcast in Gaza since 2007. One can be sure Hamas is preparing for what will be both a huge jobs program and a chance to mold the message of powerful media operations. This isn’t a call to maintain the ban on foreign journalists, who deserve a chance to do their job. But it is a warning to consumers of news: When all those reporters start filing copy from Rafah or doing stand-ups from Khan Yunis, pay attention to whether we are getting a slanted piece of the Gaza story or the whole picture. – Wall Street Journal

Karl Rove writes: Those steps are enormously important, but there are still 17 items on the checklist. They’re harder. They include making Gaza a “deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat”; Hamas’s agreeing “to not have any role” in Gaza’s governance, even indirectly; and a “process of demilitarization.” Rebuilding Gaza under a transitional government. A new “International Stabilization Force” to provide “long-term security.” […]These are tall orders. Their achievement will require the sustained, intense involvement of the president himself and Messrs. Rubio, Witkoff and Kushner if there’s any hope of achieving Mr. Trump’s full plan. – Wall Street Journal

Galit Meyran writes: The Abraham Accords may have stalled, but ties with the Gulf states never disappeared; they simply went under the radar. Now, there’s a real chance those agreements will expand. In fact, speculation is growing about other countries – Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, even Lebanon and Syria – possibly joining future normalization efforts. If that happens, it will mark far more than just a diplomatic shift; it will trigger a significant economic leap forward. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

The Tomahawk cruise missile that President Trump is considering for Ukraine has been the weapon of choice for decades for U.S. presidents seeking decisive military solutions. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is raising pressure on Moscow to come back to the negotiating table to resolve the war in Ukraine, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warning the Kremlin of possible “costs” at a NATO meeting on Wednesday. – Washington Post

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva intends to visit Ukraine at a time that has not yet been determined, an IMF spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Britain targeted Russia’s two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 shadow fleet tankers on Wednesday in what it described as a new bid to tighten energy sanctions and choke off Kremlin revenues. – Reuters

Ukraine will need between $12 billion and $20 billion worth of military aid next year as part of a new NATO initiative to purchase U.S. weapons, Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Wednesday. – Reuters

On Tuesday, without waiting for PACE to select and name its Russian partners, the FSB cited the initiative as part of its justification for opening a new criminal investigation into 23 dissidents based outside the country, whom it accused of forming a “terrorist organisation” and plotting to seize power. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that the BRICS group of nations has never targeted third countries or their currencies, rejecting U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that the bloc was designed to undermine the dollar. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Wednesday appointed a former regional governor to lead Ukraine’s Black Sea port city Odesa after revoking the citizenship of the former mayor, prompting his automatic dismissal. – Reuters

 A Ukrainian government delegation has met with prominent American weapons manufacturers during a U.S. visit, a senior Kyiv official said Wednesday, before President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with U.S. counterpart Donald Trump at the White House later this week. – Associated Press

Editorial: Mr. Trump understands this instinctively, as he showed in the Middle East. He also knows what the next steps should be in Ukraine applying those principles. Help Europe seize Russia’s frozen assets. Impose secondary sanctions on Chinese oil purchases. Give Ukraine weapons, intelligence, and a strategy for recovering more land—every kilometer gained back is leverage at a negotiating table. – Wall Street Journal

Tom Rogan writes: Trump’s provision to Ukraine of Tomahawk missiles would certainly help increase the pressure on Putin in this regard. Having already risked acts of war by loading explosives onto U.S.-destined cargo planes and helping China learn how to sink American submarines, Putin’s complaints about the Tomahawks would deserve no quarter. Coming off the back of his success in Gaza, Trump should now seize the initiative toward ending the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. – Washington Examiner

Kateryna Odarchenko writes: Transparency in state communication, including reforms to the telemarathon, would help rebuild trust and avoid perceptions of monopolization. At the same time, international monitoring and exposure of Russian influence operations — from bot networks to pseudo-media like Voice of Europe — is vital to blunt their impact and reduce their influence on democratic processes. As the war drags on, the challenge will be to preserve freedom and pluralism while maintaining effective strategic communication. For Ukraine, and for its partners, the battle for truth is now inseparable from the battle for sovereignty. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

Thousands took to the streets of the Tunisian coastal city of Gabes in a huge march on Wednesday, in an escalation of protests that began last week over pollution from the state Chemical Group’s (CGT) phosphate complex. – Reuters

Egypt is poised to complete another debt swap before the end of this year with its European partners, according to Planning Minister Rania al-Mashat, adding that more such transactions were also in the pipeline for next year. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday launched a development next to Mecca’s Grand Mosque that will add around 900,000 indoor and outdoor praying spaces, the firm tasked with delivering the project said. – Reuters

Lebanon’s cabinet is soon expected to approve and send to parliament a long-awaited law needed to restructure its debt burden, the country’s economy minister said, adding that policymakers are in touch daily with the International Monetary Fund. – Reuters

At home, many who have lived under Houthi rule have a starkly different view. In interviews with hundreds of Yemenis who have fled the Houthi-controlled part of this divided country, people described a militant group that silences critics, drives people into starvation, and has used international food aid to force parents to hand over children to be soldiers in its armed forces. – Reuters

Pope Leo XIV will carry a message of peace to Lebanon and the Christians of the Middle East when he visits next month, Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai told AFP on Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse

A candidate for Iraq’s upcoming legislative elections was killed in the explosion of a car bomb in northern Baghdad, the capital’s security forces said Wednesday. – Bloomberg

The date for a planned Moscow summit on Arab politics came and went on Wednesday, after the Kremlin pushed off the event reportedly due to a paucity of commitments from Mideast leaders to attend it. The failure to rally Arab leaders marked a decline in Russia’s influence in the region, amid a larger hit to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s clout following his 2022 invasion of Ukraine. – Times of Israel

Paul Webster Hare writes: Saudi Arabia and France have spearheaded the strong international push to ensure eventual global recognition of Palestinian statehood. The Saudis and the Gulf states have, through skillful diplomacy, ensured that Trump owes them multiple favors. It seems unlikely that Trump can do an additional Abraham Accords deal without a recognition of eventual Palestinian statehood. – Jerusalem Post

China

Chinese companies are pushing across the globe to conquer new markets, and American financiers are making a mint by helping them. – Wall Street Journal

China expressed willingness to strengthen high-level exchanges with France in a strategic dialogue between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and France’s presidential diplomatic adviser, according to a foreign ministry statement on Thursday. – Reuters

Top U.S. officials on Wednesday blasted China’s major expansion of rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains, but said Beijing could still change course and avoid steps by Washington to decouple from the world’s second-largest economy. – Reuters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday insisted that Washington did not want to escalate a trade conflict with China, stressing that President Donald Trump is ready to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. – Reuters

China has increased the maximum hiring age for some civil service positions for the first time in three decades, from 35 to 38, a move that aims to keep older workers in the labour force longer and bolster a shrinking workforce. – Reuters

China’s sanctions against five U.S.-linked affiliates of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean are seen as a warning gesture without immediate impact, and Beijing is unlikely to gain much by expanding them, analysts said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Asia

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato that the Trump administration expects Japan to stop importing Russian energy. – Reuters

Japan’s weakened Liberal Democratic Party is set to begin policy talks on Thursday with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) as Sanae Takaichi, the ruling party’s new leader, woos an ally to help clinch a prime ministerial vote expected next week. – Reuters

Former U.S. Marine Corps pilot Daniel Duggan appealed in an Australian court on Thursday against extradition to the United States on charges of violating U.S. arms control laws related to China, with his lawyer arguing his conduct was not an offence in Australia at the time. – Reuters

Japan, Spain and South Korea issued a rare joint statement on Wednesday expressing deep concerns over tumbling copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), warning both smelters and miners cannot develop sustainably under current conditions. – Reuters

Thai Army Second Lieutenant Baramee Sricha was on a patrol near a disputed stretch of the border between Thailand and Cambodia on July 16, when a member of his team stepped on a landmine that detonated, severing his ankle. – Reuters

Far-right U.S. influencer Candace Owens has lost her bid to enter Australia after the country’s highest court on Wednesday backed the government’s decision to deny her a visa over concerns she could “incite discord” in the community. – Reuters

Myanmar’s junta chief acknowledged on Wednesday that the military-backed administration will be unable to conduct an upcoming general election across the entire country, as a civil war triggered by a 2021 coup rages on. – Reuters 

Indonesia’s top defense official said Wednesday that Jakarta will acquire at least 42 Chinese-made Chengdu J-10C fighter jets, marking the country’s first non-Western aircraft purchase deal. – Associated Press

Cambodia’s government said Wednesday it hopes the U.S. and Britain have sufficient evidence in their pursuit of Prince Holding Group and its Chairman Chen Zhi, after both governments imposed coordinated sanctions accusing the Cambodian conglomerate of running massive online scams and using forced labor. – Associated Press

The youngest sister of Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn has expressed her wish for the military to construct a barrier along the Thai-Cambodian border, after a territorial dispute between the two countries escalated into deadly clashes earlier this year. – Bloomberg

Editorial: China recently warned Japan against purchasing weapons “which far exceeds what is required for its exclusively defense-oriented policy.” North Korea has accused Japan of “military recklessness.” The whining from these adversaries underscores why it’s so essential for Japan to bulk up. The U.S.-Japan security alliance has been the linchpin of regional stability for decades, and Americans have reason to be optimistic that yet another ally has stepped up. – Washington Post

Africa

The frustration among young people poses a challenge to governments beyond where Gen Z protests have taken place, not least because of the continent’s young demographic. Africa’s median age is 19, which means that young people are entering the workplace and becoming politically active in large numbers. – New York Times

Madagascar’s new military ruler, Michael Randrianirina, said on Wednesday he would soon be sworn in as the country’s president as the African Union suspended the island nation after a coup to oust President Andry Rajoelina. – Reuters

Russia said on Wednesday that it was closely watching events in Madagascar and hoped that bloodshed would be avoided after the military took power following weeks of youth-led protests. – Reuters

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa suspended Inspector-General of Intelligence Imtiaz Fazel, pending an investigation by parliament into his conduct. – Bloomberg

Mutasim Ali and Yonah Diamond write: Without the UAE, the RSF would be unable to sustain the siege on El Fasher or commit widespread atrocities. If the UAE is genuinely committed to supporting the victims of the war, it should call on the RSF to withdraw. This alone would bring reprieve to El Fasher, where nearly a half million civilians are trapped in starvation, fearing something much worse is imminent. – Foreign Policy

North America

Canada’s Industry Minister Melanie Joly threatened Stellantis with legal action over the car company’s plan to make midsize Jeeps in Illinois instead of Ontario. – Wall Street Journal

Five days after historic floods that killed at least 66 people and affected 100,000 homes, Mexico is still scrambling to get help to the worst-hit communities and locate 75 missing people amid criticism of the government’s handling of the crisis. – Reuters

The bodies of 60 men were found earlier this year in a rural area of ​​the northern Mexican state of Sonora, which borders Arizona, the state prosecutor’s office said on Wednesday, amid a surge in violence in the region. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

U.S. government officials said on Wednesday that federal networks are being targeted by an unidentified “nation-state cyber threat actor” that’s trying to exploit vulnerabilities in products made by the cybersecurity company F5. – Reuters

Capita has been fined 14 million pounds ($18.7 million) for failing to protect personal data during a 2023 cyber attack, the British outsourcing firm said on Wednesday, as part of a settlement with the UK’s privacy watchdog. – Reuters

A potentially “catastrophic” breach of a major US-based cybersecurity provider has been blamed on state-backed hackers from China, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Chinese state actors systemically and successfully compromised classified UK government computer systems for more than a decade, according to two former senior security officials and other government officials familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Chinese state-linked hackers have reportedly breached a Russian IT service provider in what appears to be an espionage campaign — a rare case of Chinese threat actors targeting a purported ally, researchers said. – The Record