Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Biden administration issues warning to Israel on Gaza aid Exhausted Gazans defy evacuation orders as Israel presses new offensive Israeli strike rocks Beirut after US says it opposes scope of air assault WaPo’s David Ignatius: What Hamas hoped would happen after Oct. 7 Iranian general is seen in state media after questions over his whereabouts Iran summons Hungarian ambassador, condemns EU and UK sanctions Nuclear-war risks rise again, stoked by global conflicts Political infighting hampers Ukraine’s efforts to avert energy crisis Bloomberg’s James Stavridis: A three-step plan for stopping Putin’s ‘shadow’ oil tankers As Israeli war on Hezbollah expands, rescuers in east reach their limit WSJ Editorial: U.N. peacekeepers are Hezbollah’s best friend Qatar to hold referendum on measure to abandon legislative electionsIn The News
Israel
The Biden administration is urging Israel to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk a cut to arms sales, the starkest threat by the U.S. since the war began last year. – Wall Street Journal
Israel’s military is ordering civilians to leave large parts of northern Gaza as it conducts an offensive against Hamas militants in Jabalia refugee camp. But many Palestinians are staying put, because they are trapped by fighting around them, exhausted by a year of repeated evacuations or fearful that nowhere in the Gaza Strip is safe. – Wall Street Journal
Israel’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered the Israeli government to explain why there appears to be no comprehensive system in place to facilitate evacuations of sick Gazans who are not involved in the Hamas-Israel war to other countries for needed treatment. – New York Times
The Israeli government has told the Biden administration that it will avoid striking nuclear enrichment and oil production sites when it makes its initial response to Iran’s recent missile attack, two officials said on Tuesday. – New York Times
Oil prices fell about 5 percent Tuesday on reports that Israel had assured the Biden administration that it did not intend to attack Iranian nuclear sites or oil infrastructure. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at below $74 a barrel on Tuesday. – New York Times
At least one Israeli strike hit Beirut’s southern suburbs early on Wednesday morning, Reuters witnesses said, hours after the U.S. said it opposed the scope of Israeli attacks in the city amid a rising death toll and fears of wider regional escalation. – Reuters
In a sign Israel may expand its ground operations against Hezbollah while bolstering its own defences, its troops have cleared landmines and established new barriers on the frontier between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a demilitarised strip bordering Syria, security sources and analysts said. – Reuters
World Bank President Ajay Banga on Tuesday warned that a significant widening of the Israel-Gaza war could lead to major impacts on the global economy, calling the steep loss of civilian lives in the region “unconscionable.” – Reuters
The United States, Israel’s closest ally, on Tuesday said it opposed the scope of the country’s air strikes in Beirut over the past few weeks amid a rising death toll and fears of wider escalation involving Iran. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday he told French President Emmanuel Macron that he would not agree to a ceasefire deal that failed to stop Hezbollah rearming and regrouping. – Reuters
Israeli military strikes killed at least 50 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces tightened their squeeze around Jabalia in the north of the enclave on Tuesday, amid fierce battles with Hamas-led fighters. – Reuters
Israel’s government has turned to industry to bolster the military’s ability to intercept aerial drones launched by Iran or the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. The Defence Ministry said on Tuesday it had launched a competition among eight large and small companies. – Reuters
The World Health Organization said on Tuesday it had been able to start its polio campaign in central Gaza and vaccinate tens of thousands of children despite Israeli strikes in the designated protected zone hours before. – Reuters
The Pentagon said components for an advanced anti-missile system began arriving in Israel on Monday and that it would be fully operational in the near future, according to a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
A gunman opened fire on cars on a highway near the Israeli city of Tel Aviv on Tuesday, killing a policeman and wounding four people before being shot dead by a passerby, Israeli police said. – Reuters
Israel Air Force aircraft, in coordination with the 454th Artillery Brigade, eliminated Hamas terrorist Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, the IDF reported on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post
The Knesset House Committee on Tuesday debated a bill proposal to expel family members of terrorists if the family member “knew ahead of time about his plan to commit an act of terror, expressed support or identified with the act of terror, or published praise, sympathy, or encouraged an act of terror.” – Jerusalem Post
Israel has decided on the targets it could potentially strike in Iran, according to Israeli television reports Tuesday, suggesting it was moving closer to responding to the Islamic Republic’s massive ballistic missile attack last month. – Times of Israel
David Ignatius writes: As Sinwar prepared his sneak attack, he knew that Israel would mount a retaliatory campaign that might devastate Gaza. The Times reports that in a June 2022 meeting, Sinwar “briefly discussed with his colleagues how a major attack on Israel would most likely require sacrifices, seemingly from ordinary Gazans.” Sinwar’s victory strategy evidently lay in a vision of a war that would spread to engulf Iran and the entire Middle East. As Israel calculates its next steps, it should consider the possibility that a major escalation and regionwide conflagration is Sinwar’s last hope. – Washington Post
Marc Champion writes: It is not and should not be up to Israel to make the call on whether to end the UN mission in Lebanon. That’s for the Security Council to decide. Unifil certainly failed to enforce its key mandate of expelling armed Hezbollah fighters from areas bordering Israel, yet it was never given the power to do so. This has been a collective failure of states, with all too much blame to share around. Those bearing responsiblity include the UN Security Council members making the decisions on Unifil’s mandates, Iran, Lebanon itself, and last but by no means least, Israel. – Bloomberg
Dan Perry writes: There are ways to rein in this brittle and malignant regime beyond sanctions. That they have not been tried is a reflection of Western weakness that will not prosper. Much is said about how the presidential election next month will affect foreign policy — but other than on Ukraine — which Donald Trump will obviously abandon — there is fuzziness around the issue. Whoever wins should find the moral clarity to lay down the law with the tyrants of Tehran. – The Hill
Iran
After days of speculation about his whereabouts, Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, appeared in video footage broadcast by Iranian state news media and in photographs from independent news outlets on Tuesday. – New York Times
Iran’s foreign ministry summoned Hungary’s ambassador on Tuesday to protest against new European Union sanctions on Tehran, and denied Western allegations that it has transferred ballistic missiles to Russia, Iranian state media reported. – Reuters
At least one person was killed in a fire at the small Pars Petro Shushtar refinery in Iran’s Khuzestan province, state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey in the coming days to discuss regional issues, Iran’s Center of Public Diplomacy and Spokesperson Head Esmaeil Baghaei stated on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Kenneth M. Pollack writes: It is far more likely that Israeli strikes would focus on Iranian military targets but could include civilian infrastructure—power plants, refineries, government buildings—and elements of the Iranian leadership, such as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and military commanders. Even then, the Israelis would be unlikely to target Iran’s most senior leaders, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian or Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israeli officials recognize that either man could be replaced by a more aggressive, less prudent figure willing to incur a tremendous price in order to inflict harm on Israel or, worse still, willing to commit Iran to building nuclear weapons regardless of the costs. – Foreign Affairs
Alam Saleh and Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas write: Israel and the US must tread carefully. Their previous miscalculations, such as withdrawal from the JCPOA, assassinations, and sabotage, had the likely unintended effect of driving Iran to become a paranuclear state; additional steps of this kind could lead it to become an actual nuclear power. A non-military solution is still an option, and if Iran is assured that its survival is not at risk, it may choose to maintain the current status quo. But if pushed further by external pressures, it may shift its strategy and fully pursue nuclear arms. This outcome would have profound and irreversible effects on the Middle East’s evolving security architecture. – Middle East Institute
Russia & Ukraine
One of the two critical U.S.-Russian nuclear-arms-control treaties has collapsed. The other, which caps how many nuclear weapons Russia and the U.S. deploy, expires in early 2026. A pledge made by declared atomic powers during the Cold War to strive for disarmament looks less realistic than ever. – Wall Street Journal
Alexei Moskalyov, who had a business selling pet birds, was initially charged with antiwar posts and fined $425, but in December 2022, new charges were brought, accusing him of discrediting the military. Masha was placed incommunicado in an orphanage, since her father had been raising her alone and her estranged mother refused to accept her. – Washington Post
For more than two years, as Russia relentlessly bombed Ukraine’s power stations, the head of the national electricity company, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, earned praise from Kyiv’s allies and energy experts for keeping the country’s power grid mostly running. – New York Times
Russia launched a series of drone and missile attacks overnight targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, igniting a fire at an industrial facility in the western Ukrainian region of Ternopil, Ukrainian officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The Russian General Prosecutor’s office was seeking to collect more than 1 billion euro ($1.09 billion) in damages from international energy major Shell (SHEL.L), the RIA news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the Moscow Arbitration court. – Reuters
Ukrainian authorities ordered the evacuation of a key city and three other localities in northeastern Kharkiv region on Tuesday as Russian forces press closer and officials face difficulties in providing services through the winter. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was set to at least partially unveil a plan to win the war against Russia to his country’s Parliament on Wednesday after weeks of dropping hints about the blueprint to lukewarm Western allies, including U.S. President Joe Biden. – Associated Press
James Stavridis writes: Once confiscated, the vessels would be impounded in Western ports and held until their cases could be adjudicated by courts. This could occur either in the legal system of the nation that seized the ship or perhaps by an international body under the auspices of the UN. While this approach will undoubtedly lead to legal challenges by Russia and other nations, if the West gathers solid intelligence on the smuggling of sanctioned oil or gas it should be possible to impound and sell the vessels and their cargo. Ideally, proceeds could be turned over to Ukraine’s war effort. I’m all for freedom of the high seas and international trade, but not if ships are violating the legal and sensible sanctions imposed to put pressure on Putin’s brutal regime. We must catch up with the shadow fleet. – Bloomberg
William H. Hill writes: Finally, Washington should intensify its push for a resolution to pressing issues between Chisinau and its autonomous Gagauz region and secessionist Transnistria. Georgia was once moving on an enthusiastic pro-Western path but now seems to be sliding back into Moscow’s orbit. This may not now appear to be the most likely outcome in Moldova. But it is a dangerous enough one that Chisinau and its Western supporters must work hard to avoid it. – Foreign Affairs
Andrei Kolesnikov writes: The most realistic hope, then, is that many young Russians will learn to do two things simultaneously: adapt to the rules of the system but still think another way. Eventually, the external political environment will change, and when that happens, this widespread double consciousness could allow them to reject the stifling system they have known. However rosy and distant this scenario seems now, it is probably more plausible than any simplistic theory of generational change. One day, it might also lead to the normalization, if not the democratization, of Russia. – Foreign Affairs
Andreas Umland writes: The coming weeks and months will show the strength of either pacifist or bellicist, risk-prone or risk-averse inclinations in various non-Western nations. Will Beijing and other powerful non-Western capitals be willing and able to seize the opportunity to persuade Moscow to cease its fire along the entire frontline and within Russia, too? Are countries like China, India, and Brazil interested in peace enough to use their international clout to force Russia into serious negotiations? – The National Interest
Hezbollah
Weeks into Israel’s war with Hezbollah, which Israeli officials say is aimed at pushing fighters away from the border, much of the military campaign has focused on the group’s stronghold in southern Lebanon, where ground troops began operating earlier this month. But Israel has also expanded its aerial campaign across the country, including in the eastern Bekaa Valley, where rescue workers say they are struggling to keep pace with the destruction. – Washington Post
Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general Naim Qassem said on Tuesday his group has adopted “a new calculation” to inflict pain on Israel, even as he called for a ceasefire. – Reuters
The IDF said on Tuesday that it had nabbed three members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces after discovering them in a shaft underneath a building in southern Lebanon, amid the ground offensive against the Lebanese terror group. – Times of Israel
Editorial: Yet Unifil has become the toast of the diplomatic circuit for provoking condemnations of Israel. France, Spain and Italy express “outrage” at the “unjustifiable” injuring of two Unifil troops. The European Union’s foreign policy chief condemns “a grave violation of international law.” Reuters writes of Israel’s “targeting of the U.N. peacekeeping mission.” Hezbollah couldn’t have scripted it better. And where was this diplomatic energy when Hezbollah dominated the area, and used it to force the depopulation of Israel’s north? It was missing in action, like Unifil. That’s why Unifil grandstands, and leaves its peacekeepers in harm’s way, while Israel fights and does their job for them. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: Furthermore, the accusation that Israel is deliberately targeting UNIFIL personnel is ridiculous. Israel cannot tolerate a situation where Hezbollah terrorists believe they can fire near UNIFIL positions and be immune from an Israeli response. UNIFIL, to ensure that its personnel are not harmed, should withdraw from southern Lebanon. And top-tier European foreign ministers, to retain credibility with Jerusalem, should direct their condemnations at Hezbollah for brazenly violating the UNSC Resolution 1701 and for putting UNIFIL at risk rather than accusing Israel of defending itself against terrorists. – Jerusalem Post
Eugene Kontorovich writes: Unifil’s current mandate expires in August 2025, and there is no rational basis for reauthorizing it. But Donald Trump can save lives today by declaring that if he is elected, Unifil is fired. Clearly the organization sees itself as the defenders of Hezbollah’s southern Lebanon, not enforcers of U.N. resolutions. Maybe when they have a good chance of losing their salaries, they will be less enthusiastic about this self-appointed mission. – Wall Street Journal
Turkey
Turkey has spent eight of the first nine months of 2024 as Europe’s largest producer of coal-fired electricity, overtaking Germany and Poland as it cranked coal burning for power. – Reuters
Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders met on Tuesday in New York for informal talks hosted by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and agreed to meet again soon to discuss “the way forward” on stalled reunification talks. – Reuters
An attempted suicide bombing attack in Tel Aviv several months ago was planned and carried out under the supervision of the Hamas terror group’s headquarters in Turkey, the Shin Bet and Israel Police said on Tuesday. – Times of Israel
Lebanon
St. Therese is near Dahiya, a densely packed civilian area adjoining Beirut where Hezbollah holds sway and which has been pounded by Israeli airstrikes. It is one of at least nine hospitals in Lebanon that are now shuttered or only partly functional, according to the World Health Organization. – New York Times
Marjayoun, a majority Christian town in southern Lebanon, opened its schools and a church last month to house scores of people fleeing Israel’s bombardment of Muslim villages, extending a hand across the country’s sectarian divide. – Reuters
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday she plans to visit Lebanon on Oct. 18, just days after Israeli forces attacked U.N. bases in the country, drawing anger from many EU capitals, including Rome. – Reuters
U.S. officials assured Lebanon that Israel would tamp down its strikes on Beirut and its southern suburbs, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Gulf States
Qatar will hold a rare referendum for citizens to vote on a set of constitutional amendments, including a proposal that would abandon an effort to introduce elections, the Gulf Arab state’s emir said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi agreed to deepen trade and investment cooperation and called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon in talks in Cairo on Tuesday. – Reuters
The CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ premier AI firm stressed that the Gulf country is a reliable partner to the U.S. when it comes to keeping sensitive technology safe, as Washington reportedly mulls curbs on chip sales to certain countries — particularly those in the Middle East. – CNBC
Middle East & North Africa
A resumption of Libyan crude output after a political crisis over the central bank slashed the OPEC member’s exports to a four-year low, has led to a surplus in crude supplies in Europe, forcing competing sellers to cut their prices, trading sources and analysts say. – Reuters
The Federal Aviation Administration on Tuesday extended the restrictions on commercial airlines over Iraq for U.S. flights for another three years citing risks to flights. – Reuters
Yemen risks being dragged further into the military escalation in the Middle East that keeps intensifying and could spiral out of control, the U.N. special envoy for the Arab world’s poorest nation said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Korean Peninsula
The United States, South Korea and Japan on Wednesday announced the launch of a new multinational team to monitor the enforcement of sanctions against North Korea after Russia and China thwarted monitoring activities at the United Nations. – Reuters
North Korean state media said on Wednesday around 1.4 million young people had applied to join or return to the army this week, blaming Seoul for a provocative drone incursion that had brought the “tense situation to the brink of war”. – Reuters
The United States is “concerned” by reports of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine, a White House spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters
North Korea blew up sections of inter-Korean roads and rail lines on its side of the heavily fortified border between the two Koreas on Tuesday, prompting South Korea’s military to fire warning shots. – Reuters
Russia said on Tuesday that a treaty it signed with North Korea earlier this year provides for “strategic cooperation” in all areas, but declined to be drawn on how a mutual defence clause in the agreement could be put into practice. – Reuters
Imran Khalid writes: Curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions is a complicated task that that must be addressed on multiple levels. These moves could involve further sanctions on the regime and enforcement actions to squeeze North Korea economically. This includes stronger sanctions and enforcement by other countries to force economic isolation, enhancing diplomatic efforts with ASEAN or regional powers as a unified front and engaging in cyber and financial measures to disrupt North Korea economically. – The Hill
Stephen Costello writes: Experienced analysts and diplomats have long pointed out that extreme sanctions on the DPRK are not only ineffective but counterproductive, preventing all agreements. The Korean War should be ended finally as part of a broader tension-reduction process. China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all share an interest in North Korea’s pacification and reintegration into regional and global systems. There is more “low-hanging fruit” to be leveraged to finally achieve U.S. goals. Unless there is truly new thinking in the White House next year, incorporating the most accomplished voices, the new North Korea-Russia mutual defense pact could be the least of our worries. – The National Interest
China
Now that China has suddenly become the best-performing market in the world, investors need to recognize how much the gains are being driven by Beijing’s bolder steps to revive the nation’s sluggish economy and how much is just fear of missing out. They should proceed with caution. – Wall Street Journal
With China’s economy sinking deeper into a funk last month, Xi Jinping finally decided something had to be done. After resisting calls to take forceful steps to prop up the economy for two years, Xi relented in late September and ordered a barrage of interest-rate cuts and other measures to put a floor under growth. – Wall Street Journal
China will never commit to renouncing the use of force over Taiwan, the government in Beijing said on Wednesday after another bout of war games and a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the scene of a famous defeat for Taiwanese forces. – Reuters
China’s embassy in Prague criticised on Tuesday a visit by former Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen to the Czech capital, where she met senior officials and spoke at a conference on democracy and human rights. – Reuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping said a successful partnership between China and the United States is an opportunity for the two countries to be enablers for each other’s development rather than an obstacle, according to state media on Wednesday. – Reuters
Gordon G. Chang writes: Chinese leaders have made strides in that direction by entering into a $400 billion, 25-year “strategic partnership agreement” with Iran in 2021, brokering an agreement between long-time rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 and uniting 14 Palestinian factions with their July Beijing Declaration. The U.S. has lost some interest in the region because in recent years it has been the world’s leading energy producer. America, as it is now called, is the “new Saudi Arabia,” pumping more crude oil than any other country in history for six years in a row. Also, no country now produces more natural gas. As a result of the U.S. energy boom, the U.S. is a major supplier of crude oil to, among others, South Korea. – The Hill
South Asia
For many women in India, taking steps to ward off a violent attack—and reassuring their families they are safe while at work and on their commutes—is an invisible form of labor that is a central element of their work life. – Wall Street Journal
Pakistan has agreed to increase security for Chinese citizens and projects in the South Asian nation, a joint statement said on Tuesday, as Beijing called for urgent security measures following an escalation in militant threats in the country. – Reuters
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrived in Pakistan on Tuesday in the first such visit in almost a decade for a meeting of governments of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with the capital city under tight lockdown. – Reuters
Taliban run-media have stopped showing images of living beings in some Afghan provinces to comply with morality laws, an official confirmed Tuesday. – Associated Press
Officials from an international security group founded to counter Western alliances met in Pakistan’s capital on Wednesday to discuss how to boost security cooperation and economic ties. – Associated Press
Asia
Singapore’s air force mobilised two fighter jets late on Tuesday in response to a bomb threat on an Air India Express flight bound for the city-state, its defence minister said. – Reuters
King Charles, the only British monarch who has spent time living in Australia, arrives on Friday for his inaugural visit to an overseas realm as sovereign, his first major foreign trip since being diagnosed with cancer. – Reuters
Australia said on Wednesday it would invest billions of dollars over the next two decades to expand a shipyard in Western Australia that would become the maintenance hub for its nuclear-powered AUKUS submarine fleet. – Reuters
Karishma Vaswani writes: Speaking out against Chinese incursions in the South China Sea, where Indonesia has a claim, even as Jakarta enjoys a strong economic relationship with Beijing, would be one way to assert the archipelago’s growing confidence. Indonesia is often called the sleeping giant, a nation of 270 million, perpetually waiting to realize its potential. Jokowi helped bring the country to the world’s attention. Prabowo has a chance to build on that and make the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country a key international player. He shouldn’t squander the opportunity. – Bloomberg
Europe
Lufthansa was fined $4 million by U.S. regulators, who accused the German airline of discriminating against 128 Jewish passengers by stopping them from making a connecting flight due to the alleged misbehavior of a few fliers. – Wall Street Journal
Moldova’s citizens vote on Sunday in a presidential election and an EU referendum that come at a pivotal moment in the tussle between Russia and the West for the future of the poor, landlocked southeast European nation of under 3 million people. – Reuters
Iceland will hold a parliamentary election on Nov. 30 after the country’s prime minister on Sunday said the three-party coalition government had collapsed, the president said late on Tuesday. – Reuters
Italy’s government plans to raise 3.5 billion euros ($3.81 billion) from domestic banks and insurers, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday after her cabinet approved budget plans for the next three years. – Reuters
The leader of the conservative Austrian People’s Party (OVP), Chancellor Karl Nehammer, said on Tuesday after a meeting with far-right Freedom Party (FPO) leader Herbert Kickl that he remains opposed to joining a government with Kickl in it. – Reuters
The European Commission will propose during its new term measures to tighten the EU’s stance on migration, responding to pressure from governments across the bloc for which irregular arrivals have become a major political and security problem. – Reuters
Germany’s largest industrial union slammed a proposed pay rise for almost 4 million workers in key sectors on Tuesday as too little too late, teeing up difficult collective bargaining negotiations and possible strikes in Europe’s largest economy. – Reuters
Germany is investigating several fires caused by incendiary devices hidden inside parcels at a warehouse in Leipzig earlier this year, the country’s prosecutor general said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Sweden will bolster the size of its armed forces by some 27,000 men and women by 2030 to around 115,000 people, including professional soldiers and conscripts, as the country ramps up defence spending, the government said on Tuesday. – Reuters
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Tuesday it had cancelled a mission to Hungary to discuss anti-bribery measures, citing the government’s failure to act on its previous recommendations. – Reuters
Spanish police have seized 13 tons of banned chemicals, including “possible” chemical weapons precursors, that were bound for Russia despite the sanctions imposed on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, they said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Britain has frozen its annual security dialogue with Georgia and cancelled other talks on defence over concerns about democratic backsliding, Britain’s ambassador to Tbilisi said in an interview published on Tuesday. – Reuters
A court in Belarus on Tuesday sentenced an imprisoned opponent of hardline President Alexander Lukashenko to an additional year behind bars for disobeying prison officials. – Associated Press
Monika Sus and Dominik Jankowski write: In today’s volatile security landscape, a robust NATO-E.U. partnership is not just desirable — it is imperative. There is no shortage of declarations of intent, mechanisms for institutional cooperation, and joint projects. What still seems to be lacking is political will at the highest level. The incoming NATO and E.U. leadership — including the new NATO secretary general, the E.U.’s high representative for foreign policy and security issues, and the E.U. defense commissioner — should decisively prioritize NATO-E.U. cooperation. – War on the Rocks
Africa
Kenya’s courts on Tuesday declined to stop this week’s Senate vote on Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment from going ahead. – Reuters
The Transmission Company of Nigeria says it is working to restore power after blackouts engulfed the country following another collapse of the power grid on Monday night. – Reuters
Nigeria’s inflation rate rose in September for the first time in three months, advancing to 32.70% in annual terms from 32.15% in August, the statistics agency said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Latin America
At least 21 people including workers, neighbors and firefighters were injured on Tuesday in a fire at a crude storage tank in Venezuela’s La Salina oil terminal, operated by state company PDVSA (PDVSA.UL), authorities said. – Reuters
An investigation by Brazil’s federal police will conclude that former president Jair Bolsonaro conspired to engineer an attempted coup d’etat after he lost the 2022 election, a source with direct knowledge of the investigations told Reuters. – Reuters
The government of the Brazilian state of Para in the Amazon will consult Indigenous communities on how they will benefit from the future sale of carbon offset credits that U.S. companies have agreed to buy to try to protect the rainforest. – Reuters
Venezuela’s security forces were “massively involved” in human-rights violations that constitute crimes against humanity after July’s disputed election, according to a United Nations panel. – Bloomberg
Drug gangs have begun growing significant amounts of coca, the key raw ingredient in cocaine, inside Ecuador, according to President Daniel Noboa, who vowed to eradicate the crops as part of an ongoing crackdown on trafficking that has plagued the country. – Bloomberg
North America
The accusation by Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, that the Indian government orchestrated a campaign to threaten and kill Sikhs on Canadian soil has cast a spotlight on the potential reach of India’s shadowy intelligence network, which has been known to operate mainly in South Asia. – New York Times
Mexican officials urged safety and stability in private investment in the country on Tuesday, following a bilateral summit with business leaders in which fears about constitutional reforms dominated the agenda. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said it sees Mexico’s economic growth slowing to around 1.5% this year, citing capacity constraints and tight monetary policy. – Reuters
Canada, in coordination with the United States, on Tuesday designated the pro-Palestinian group Samidoun as a “terrorist entity” alleging that it had links with another terrorist-designated group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. – Reuters
Mexico’s former public security chief is set to be sentenced in a U.S. court on Wednesday after being convicted of taking bribes to aid drug traffickers. – Associated Press
A leader of one of Haiti’s most powerful gangs was injured in a shootout with Haitian and Kenyan police in their first major incursion into gang-controlled territory since a U.N.-backed mission began earlier this year, police said Tuesday. – Associated Press
United States
The Biden administration has held talks with three firms in recent weeks about purchasing one of the world’s largest non-Chinese cobalt producers, according to people familiar with the matter, as the U.S. attempts to loosen Beijing’s global grip on a metal seen as central to the green-energy revolution. – Wall Street Journal
The gender gap has come to define a deadlocked presidential race, with a galvanized group of women voting for Harris because of her support for abortion rights and Trump wooing men with uber-masculine rhetoric. The split has affected the candidates’ media strategies and how they frame the issues most important to voters in the final weeks of the campaign. – Wall Street Journal
The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on what it said was a key international fundraiser for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which Washington has designated a terrorist organization. – Reuters
Voters in Georgia turned out in record numbers as the battleground state opened early voting for the Nov. 5 presidential election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, state officials said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Marc Thiessen writes: Trump is holding his cards close to his vest on Ukraine, because he understands leverage, too. But those who expect Trump to side with Putin against Zelensky might be in for a surprise. In his debate with President Joe Biden, Trump said that Putin’s demands to keep all Ukrainian territory he has already seized and to force Ukraine to abandon its bid to join NATO are “not acceptable.” And in an interview with me at Mar-a-Lago last month, Trump repeated his warning that if Putin does not agree to a peace deal, he’ll give Ukraine more military aid than it has ever gotten before. – Washington Post
Cybersecurity
The EU had long debated new AI regulations before OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public in late 2022. The record-breaking popularity and ensuing public debate over the supposed existential risks of such models spurred lawmakers to draw up specific rules around “general-purpose” AIs (GPAI). – Reuters
Facebook parent company Meta (META.O), must face lawsuits by U.S. states accusing it of fueling mental health problems among teens by making its Facebook and Instagram platforms addictive, a federal judge in California ruled on Tuesday. – Reuters
Semiconductor stocks in the United States and Asia fell after chip equipment maker ASML (ASML.AS), cut its annual sales forecast over weak non-AI chip demand while a report said the Biden administration was considering capping sales of advanced artificial intelligence processors to some countries. – Reuters
Russia, China and Iran are increasingly relying on criminal networks to lead cyberespionage and hacking operations against adversaries like the U.S., according to a report on digital threats published Tuesday by Microsoft. – Associated Press
Large organizations that train developers with secure-by-design practices can reliably reduce the number of vulnerabilities introduced into software products by more than 50%, according to a new report from Secure Code Warrior. – Cyberscoop
In the last fiscal year, 389 U.S.-based healthcare institutions were successfully hit with ransomware, causing “network closures, systems offline, critical medical operations delayed, and appointments rescheduled,” Microsoft said in its annual Digital Defense Report released on Tuesday. The company did not say how many were successfully attacked last year. – The Record
Hong Kong police have arrested 27 people for allegedly carrying out romance scams using deepfake face-swapping technology that swindled victims out of $46 million. – The Record
An online haven for the sale of narcotics and other criminal goods in Scandinavia was shut down and had its servers seized by law enforcement agencies in Sweden and Finland. – The Record
Defense
The Army’s helmet-mounted, mixed reality device that merges information tools, night vision and thermal optics will see more design updates and a battalion-level assessment next year. – Defense News
One Army division is finding ways to practice the Army’s newest multidomain doctrine with partners, at home station and using space assets to test the mettle of its company and battalion commanders. – Defense News
The U.S. Army will ramp up its efforts to transform its formations with next-level technology including capabilities to counter drone threats much faster, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George said at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual conference Tuesday. – Defense News