Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

A U.S.-brokered cease-fire has hit pause on the war between Hamas and Israel. In its place, a fight between Hamas and other armed Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip is now under way. – Wall Street Journal

In a mass kidnapping of more than 250 people from 13 countries, the experience of the Joshis was singular: Their son was the only foreigner whose plight remained unclear—whether he was dead or alive—until Monday, when news of his fate broke just as Israel and the Palestinian territories erupted in celebration. The ordeal of his parents—who live near the Mahakali River that winds between India and Nepal—is a reminder of how the Hamas attacks reverberated around the world. – Wall Street Journal

Yael Adar sat somberly with other relatives of dead hostages in Israel’s parliament where President Trump spoke on Monday, when the last 20 living Gaza captives were returned to Israel. The mood felt celebratory, with lawmakers erupting into songs and cheers. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas handed over the bodies of four more hostages to Israel on Tuesday, after both sides accused each other of violating the cease-fire that was part of the deal that released all 20 living detainees from Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the United States could step in to disarm Hamas — “quickly and perhaps violently” — if the organization did not do so itself, a potential vulnerability in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement that has tentatively brought an end to two years of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. – Washington Post

Getting Israel’s hostages released from Gaza and stopping the war may have taken two years and the direct efforts of the American president and the leaders of several Arab and Muslim nations. But that was almost certainly the easy part. – New York Times

Israel will allow Gaza’s Rafah border crossing with Egypt to open on Wednesday and increase the amount of humanitarian aid coming into the enclave, public broadcaster Kan reported, after Hamas handed over more bodies of deceased hostages. – Reuters

Israel confirmed it will not take part in the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships in Jakarta after its athletes were denied visas, with the Israel Gymnastics Federation calling the decision shocking and heartbreaking. – Reuters

European and Arab nations, Canada and the U.S. appear willing to contribute to the estimated $70 billion needed to rebuild Gaza, a U.N. official said on Tuesday, adding that the two-year war there had produced rubble equal to 13 times the pyramids of Giza. – Reuters

The European Union should maximise its influence in Gaza’s recovery process and join a U.S.-proposed “Board of Peace” intended to temporarily oversee governance of the enclave, the EU’s diplomatic arm said in a document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

A first batch of bodies of Palestinians killed during the Gaza war has arrived in the enclave after being released by Israel, local health authorities told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

FIFA President Gianni Infantino pledged the governing body’s support to rebuild football infrastructure in Gaza as part of wider post-war reconstruction efforts following Monday’s peace summit in Egypt. – Reuters

Under the Gaza ceasefire deal, Israel has released dozens of doctors, nurses, paramedics and other health workers captured in hospital raids. But more than 100 remain in Israeli prisons, including Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya, the hospital director who became the face of the struggle to continue treating patients under Israeli siege and bombardment. – Associated Press

Israel on Wednesday identified more bodies of dead hostages that were handed over by Hamas a day earlier to ease pressure on a fragile ceasefire in its war with Israel. The handover came after an Israeli military agency warned it would slash aid deliveries to Gaza as the militant group was not returning the remains as agreed. – Associated Press

Just hours after the 20 remaining living hostages were released by Hamas and brought back to Israel on Monday, the speaker of the Israeli parliament took off his yellow ribbon pin, an emblem of solidarity and an omnipresent reminder of the nation’s commitment to securing the captives’ return. – CNN

A yet-to-be-publicized humanitarian annex in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal that Israel and Hamas signed last week does not stipulate a role for the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, as officials familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel that the cash-strapped American organization is not slated to take part in the Strip’s postwar humanitarian operations. – Times of Israel

As efforts ramp up to plan for the reconstruction of war-torn Gaza at the end of a grueling two-year war, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told The Associated Press that 15 Palestinian technocrats have been selected to administer postwar Gaza. – Times of Israel

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir shared his outrage on social media after it was announced on Wednesday that Hamas returned the remains of an unknown Palestinian along with those of three hostages. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the demands from him and US President Donald Trump are “very clear” that Hamas must disarm and demilitarize or “all hell breaks loose,” in a Tuesday interview with CBS Mornings co-host Tony Dokoupil. – Jerusalem Post

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, in a statement, demanded a meeting with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir after Hamas failed to release all the hostages within the 72-hour timeline stipulated in US President Donald Trump’s plan. – Jerusalem Post

Bret Stephens writes: The current cease-fire brings a set of difficult questions about what comes next — for Israelis and Palestinians and everyone else invested in their future. But it should settle important questions, too. Are Israelis weak? Is their state built on foundations of sand? Is their attachment to their beliefs slight? Yahya Sinwar and those who followed him thought so. The grave he made for himself should settle the questions for good. – New York Times

Jos Joseph writes: But Trump’s art of the deal is that you make a deal as fast as possible, no matter who it is with. Yes, the hostages are free and we should be glad about it. But Americans need to recognize the drawbacks — terrorists will now have a place at the negotiating table if they can appease Trump. Our former enemies can now hold sway over our government. Did we wasted 20-plus years on a “war on terror,” just to be allies and partners with people who funded and engaged in terror against Americans? – The Hill

Cookie Schwaeber-Issan writes: Leaders such as Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, along with European and other Western leaders, know that the Middle East is blessed by the presence of Israel. If any of them had the courage to admit that Israel is truly the best thing that ever happened to the Middle East, they might actually be able to look themselves in the mirror and feel proud of not being controlled by anything except their own conscience. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

For months, Kyiv slogged through peace talks with Moscow that it never truly believed would work. Still, eager to cater to President Trump’s push for a diplomatic solution, Ukraine sent its diplomats into round after round of meetings with American and Russian counterparts, even as the talks yielded scant results. – New York Times

Russia’s main intelligence agency on Tuesday announced a sweeping terrorism investigation into nearly two dozen antiwar Russians, escalating the Kremlin’s onslaught against exiled critics of the invasion of Ukraine. – New York Times

President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday revoked the Ukrainian citizenship of the mayor of Odesa, the country’s third-largest city, on the ground that he was a citizen of Russia, according to the country’s security services. – New York Times

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Tuesday it had opened a criminal case against exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and other prominent Kremlin critics, accusing them of plotting to violently seize power. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday revoked the citizenship of Odesa’s mayor on the grounds that he also had a Russian passport, acting to end the tenure of a divisive figure who has run the Black Sea port city for 11 years. – Reuters

Russian forces launched powerful glide bombs and drones against Ukraine’s second-largest city in overnight attacks, hitting a hospital and wounding seven people, an official said Tuesday, as European military aid for Kyiv dropped sharply and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepared to ask U.S. President Donald Trump for Tomahawk missiles. – Associated Press

When Russian drones smashed into the Shostka train station in northeastern Ukraine earlier this month, they killed a 71-year-old man, injured at least eight people and left train cars buckled by fire and riddled with shrapnel holes. – Associated Press

NATO defense ministers will meet on Wednesday to try to drum up more military support for Ukraine amid a sharp drop in deliveries of weapons and ammunition to the war-ravaged country in recent months. – Associated Press

Ukrainian authorities are growing frustrated with a surge in foreign components being found in Russian drones, with a senior diplomat calling on allies to tighten sanctions controls as Moscow scales up military production. – Bloomberg

Seth G. Jones and Tom Karako write: Tomahawks won’t end the war by themselves, but they will increase pressure on Russia to settle the conflict. The Russian military has already suffered more than one million casualties since February 2022, lost massive amounts of equipment, and seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since the January 2024 offensive—advancing more slowly than French and British forces during the Battle of the Somme. It’s clear from Mr. Putin’s behavior throughout negotiations that the only way this war ends is by forcing Russia to the table. Send the Tomahawks to Ukraine. Let Russia know that Washington is serious. – Wall Street Journal

Vladirmir Kara-Murza writes: Maxim Kruglov is being held in Kapotnya, Moscow’s quarantine prison, before being transferred to one of the capital’s pretrial detention centers. The outcome of his upcoming trial is not in doubt. What is also not in doubt is that people like Maxim — Russians who refuse to become silent accomplices to the Kremlin’s crimes — are saving our country’s honor amid this current darkness. And it will be they who will lead Russia back to normality and back to civilization once the drawn-out nightmare of Vladimir Putin’s rule is finally over. – Washington Post

Joseph Bosco writes: If accurate, this scenario would reflect the most cynical betrayal of a wartime ally that any American president has ever perpetrated. Or, the answer may be childishly simpler — that Trump has just changed his mind again. Either way, conscious betrayal or utter ineptitude in the face of Putin’s intimidation, the consequences for Ukraine and many NATO nations are equally disastrous. China, Iran and North Korea watch with as much interest as Russia. Less importantly, except to Trump, the Nobel Committee will not be impressed with his present course on Ukraine, unless they are inclined to call their award the Peace at Any Price Prize. – The Hill

David Kirichenko writes: The vessel also incorporates elements of artificial intelligence, enabling it to exhibit greater autonomy and adaptability on the battlefield. “It is reasonable to assume that naval drones may already incorporate some AI technologies, particularly in combat modules,” Kuzan said.  Unmanned systems are transforming warfare not only on land but also at sea. Ukraine’s tech-savvy navy has forced one of the world’s largest fleets into hiding, proving that innovation and asymmetrical warfare can outmaneuver larger powers. The era of the timid navy will only deepen as autonomous drones proliferate. – National Interest

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s industry minister and the chief presidential secretary for policy will travel to the United States on Thursday for follow-up talks on lowering tariffs applied to the Asian country’s goods, the government said on Wednesday. – Reuters

South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said on Tuesday it was “huge progress” that the U.S. was not insisting that South Korea make all of the $350 billion investments, promised in a trade deal reached in July, in the form of direct investment. – Reuters

Victor Cha, Bonny Lin, Andy Lim, and Truly Tinsley write: As part of his visit, Li Qiang paid his respects to former members of the CPV at the cemetery where they are buried. This year marks the 75th anniversary of the CPV’s support of the North in the Korean War, and in Li’s remarks at the site, he emphasized the two countries’ long friendship and bond forged by this bloodshed. Li wrapped up his trip with a meeting with North Korean Premier Park Tae-Seong on October 11. At the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang, Li proposed that the two countries hold a major event to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the CPV’s “Resist America, Aid Korea” operation. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

South Asia

More than 12 civilians were killed in Afghanistan as fresh fighting broke out between Afghan and Pakistani forces on Wednesday, the Taliban said, rupturing a fragile peace that had briefly taken hold after weekend clashes between the countries killed dozens. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on its loan program, which would allow the country to access $1.2 billion after approval from the fund’s board. – Reuters

India is fast-tracking trade talks with the US with the goal of concluding negotiations by next month, people familiar with the matter said, even as New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil remain a sticking point. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Trump wants U.S. trade policy to be more self-interested, but it doesn’t serve America’s strategic interests to strengthen China’s position relative to its neighbors. At some level, the administration surely knows this. Indeed, its continued commitment to strengthening the Quad — comprising the U.S., Japan, India and Australia — shows that it understands that regional power balances matter. Reuters reported this week that new trade talks are in the works. Negotiators can address differences with New Delhi without losing sight of its crucial role balancing Beijing. – Washington Post

Jim Geraghty writes: But you don’t amass around 5 million members without giving people something they feel they need — a sense of connection and community, of belonging to something great and consequential. RSS tells its members that they are needed and their lives have great purpose. There are a lot of people unnerved by the rise of nationalism and populist organizations from the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. and beyond. If you don’t like the RSS or like-minded groups increasing their influence, you need to offer people a better alternative that they feel fulfills those needs. – Washington Post

Europe

French President Emmanuel Macron is ready to call timeout on his signature pension overhaul to save what remains of his presidency. – Wall Street Journal

Spain’s electricity-grid operator said there was no risk of an imminent second major blackout in the country after detecting two sharp voltage variations in recent weeks. – Wall Street Journal

Thyssenkrupp’s naval-defense business will start trading on the German stock exchange next week as the industrial company looks to cash in on a European drive to expand its submarine fleet in the face of geopolitical tensions. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened trade penalties, including tariffs, against Spain, saying he is unhappy with its refusal to raise defense spending to 5% and calling the move disrespectful to NATO. – Reuters

The French government will discuss an institutional reform for the overseas territory of New Caledonia by year end, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu told lawmakers on Tuesday. – Reuters

An Afghan national was jailed for five years on Tuesday after being found guilty of making a threat to kill Nigel Farage, leader of the populist Reform UK party that leads opinion polls in Britain. – Reuters

The French socialist party will not vote against the government in motions filed by the hard-left and the far-right but will submit its own motion of no confidence if it is unhappy with Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s budget proposals, parliamentary socialist sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Britain could take a leading role in helping to disarm Hamas in Gaza, based on its experience of encouraging militant groups in Northern Ireland to lay down their arms, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A speedboat carrying migrants overturned while it was being chased by the Greek coast guard near the island of Rhodes, leaving a man and a boy dead, the coast guard said Tuesday. – Associated Press

The European Union’s deregulation drive isn’t just about pleasing Washington, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said Tuesday, arguing Brussels must loosen up its own rules while defending its independence from U.S. pressure. – Politico

Defense officials have sent requests for information to six countries for submarine designs for the Polish Orka (Orca) submarine program, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s end-of-year deadline nears for picking a winning proposal. – Defense News

Editorial: With reform and economic growth off the table, France’s political factions now are bickering over who can wreck the economy faster and more creatively via tax increases, industrial policy and new regulations. Mr. Macron is the lamest of lame ducks, but he can do one thing: call a new election. A vote is unlikely to resolve France’s economic crisis since no candidate will dare propose reforms. But at least it can force voters to take responsibility for what comes next. If no politician wants to, someone must. – Wall Street Journal

Katja Hoyer writes: Germany’s grappling with the question of how to defend its airspace from drone incursions is the tip of a giant iceberg of problems when it comes to rearmament and defense readiness. A deeply divided country with increasingly messy politics, it is far from mounting the kind of collective resolve necessary to build an effective military ethos. It’s a conundrum that afflicts much of the West to varying degrees. But Germany’s exceptional fiscal power, combined with its particular past and present, creates a unique paradox: Germany is an economic giant that is astonishingly hard to defend. – Bloomberg

The Americas

President Trump directly tied the $20 billion lifeline the U.S. is extending to Argentina to President Javier Milei’s success in the coming midterm elections. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is the largest in the region in more than three decades, since the American invasion of Panama. And it isn’t over. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump on Tuesday announced another lethal military strike on an alleged drug-trafficking boat off the coast of Venezuela, which killed six people. – Wall Street Journal

In a brazen scheme that may have involved escapes during prison visits, 20 inmates accused of being members of a major gang have slipped out of a Guatemalan prison and set off a sweeping manhunt, the authorities say. – New York Times

President Trump will host Javier Milei, the leader of Argentina, at the White House on Tuesday, just days after the United States agreed to move ahead with a major bailout of the Latin American nation. – New York Times

Peruvian President Jose Jeri swore in the first members of his cabinet on Tuesday, sending the most concrete signals yet about how he would govern after vaulting into power last week following his predecessor Dina Boluarte’s abrupt ouster. – Reuters 

A vehicle exploded outside a shopping mall in Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil, killing one person and injuring several others, the country’s prosecutor’s office said on Tuesday. – Reuters

U.S. support for Argentina hinges on the ruling party of President Javier Milei succeeding in this month’s midterm legislative elections, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, saying “we’re not going to waste our time” if Milei’s party does not win. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said at the White House on Tuesday he would endorse Argentinian President Javier Milei for re-election. – Reuters

The hit-style shooting of two Venezuelan activists in Colombia’s capital is fueling fears among Venezuela’s diaspora that a crackdown on dissent by the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is seeping beyond the South American nation’s borders. – Associated Press

Justice officials in Haiti are asking the U.S. and Canada for help after a court of appeals ordered a new investigation into the killing of President Jovenel Moïse, the third one of its kind since he was fatally shot at his private residence in July 2021. – Associated Press

The northern Ecuadorian city of Otavalo became the scene of violent clashes between protesters and law enforcement on Tuesday that left dozens injured, according to an indigenous organization, amid prolonged protests against the fuel hike. – Associated Press

Two of the emerging-market giants hardest hit by President Donald Trump’s trade wars are deepening their ties in response, betting that a united front will help them endure the US broadsides and find new markets to skirt tariffs. – Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump made it clear to his Argentine counterpart Javier Milei that any Chinese military activity in the South American country wouldn’t be received well in Washington. – Bloomberg

Ricardo Hausmann writes: Mr. Milei has shown his commitment to fiscal discipline and responsible management of the country’s money supply. Ultimately, Argentines need to reach a political consensus around the idea that stability is not a partisan slogan but a foundation for growth. The pivotal question on Oct. 26 is whether they will signal to themselves, and to markets, that Argentina is ready to break with old habits and anchor its future on a commitment to stability — whatever it takes. – New York Times

Arturo McFields writes: Global powers cannot and should not relinquish their regional leadership. The U.S. seems determined to guarantee a territory free of narcoterrorism. Beyond isolated actions, we seem to be witnessing a new Latin American doctrine beyond the traditional forms. In this war context, the next 90 days will be crucial to breaking up the criminal drug trafficking structures in Venezuela. The list of objectives could already be defined and the actions scheduled. The Trump administration has said that peace can only be achieved through strength, and that is what is happening now. The dictator’s days are numbered. – The Hill

United States

President Trump on Tuesday honored the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor. – Wall Street Journal

Career prosecutors at the Justice Department do not believe criminal charges are warranted from an investigation seeking to discredit an earlier F.B.I. inquiry into Russia’s attempt to tilt the 2016 election in President Trump’s favor, according to people familiar with the matter. – New York Times

The U.S. State Department said on Tuesday it had revoked the visas of six foreigners over social media comments made about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. – Reuters

With migrant crossings at the Mexico border at their lowest level in five decades, US Border Patrol agents who normally police the frontier are being sent to cities deep inside the country to assist in federal immigration crackdowns. – Bloomberg

Senate Democrats voted once again Tuesday night to reject the GOP-led funding patch, guaranteeing the government shutdown stretches beyond the two-week point. – Politico

Editorial: Many Western governments, especially in Europe, nonetheless support the IMO plan—no doubt because of that unpopularity. It’s an attempt by climate-obsessed politicians to entrench their agenda before voters in democracies can kill it. This is the kind of national abdication of decision-making to international bodies that has spurred populist rebellions across Europe and the U.S. President Trump will do Americans and the entire democratic world a favor if he can scare the IMO into thinking twice about this global carbon-tax plan. – Wall Street Journal

Thomas Black writes: The uncomfortable position of depending on an adversary for rare-earth elements has a solution, and it’s urgent to shorten this period. The government support should be robust but with a clear goal of unwinding equity positions once the crisis has subsided. This period of vulnerability should also be a lesson not to become beholden to China for other key aspects of the economy. – Bloomberg

Todd Young writes: The United States can win the biotechnology race. By harnessing two of the United States’ greatest strengths—its dynamic private sector and its unmatched network of allies and partners across the world—Congress and the Trump administration can ensure that the United States, not China, leads the biotechnology age. Strategic action now is the difference between controlling the biotechnology future or being controlled by it. – Foreign Affairs

Defense

The U.S. military is making one of its most significant pushes yet into modern nuclear power with a program to put small reactors on Army bases across much of the country where strained power grids can’t keep up with rising energy demands. – Wall Street Journal

The head of the US Southern Command is visiting key Caribbean nations this week, as President Donald Trump’s administration surges forces into the region in a bid to hem in Venezuela. – Bloomberg

Leonardo DRS and KNDS have shaken hands on a strategic teaming agreement to offer the CAESAR Self-Propelled Howitzer to the U.S. Army as a possible Mobile Tactical Cannon as the service continues to evaluate what it wants. – Defense News

Never mind the mere beta status of the Army’s new app for operating howitzers, soldiers of the 4th Infantry Division at Fort Carson, Colorado, were itching to find out whether four decades of the existing, error-prone system were finally coming to an end. – Defense News

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems announced Tuesday it is teaming up with South Korean firm Hanwha Aerospace to develop and produce a short-takeoff-and-landing version of the Gray Eagle drone. – Defense News

The U.S. Army’s I Corps is at a moment of strategic transition, shouldering the responsibility of shaping the service’s readiness across the vast, complex Indo-Pacific theater. – Defense News

Turkish defense-electronics company Aselsan has detailed its integrated air-defense suite “Steel Dome,” describing it as a multi-layered, multi-domain system that combines kinetic and non-kinetic effectors with advanced decision-support algorithms. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is looking to develop a new “fog of war,” but in order to keep up with ever-evolving technological advances, it is turning to a technology that dates back to the Civil War — smokescreens. – Defense News