Fdd's overnight brief

October 15, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israel has assured the Biden administration that a planned retaliatory attack on Iran won’t target nuclear and oil facilities, according to U.S. officials, a promise sought by the White House to head off further Middle East escalation and to avoid a potential oil-price increase. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military shared with journalists documents that it said its soldiers found in Gaza and that appear to show financial and military support provided by Iran to Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas before the Oct. 7 attacks. – Wall Street Journal

The United States is sending an advanced missile defense system to Israel, along with about 100 American troops to operate it, the Pentagon announced on Sunday. It is the first deployment of U.S. forces to Israel since the Hamas-led attacks there on Oct. 7, 2023. – New York Times

Israeli forces widened their raid into northern Gaza and tanks reached the north edge of Gaza City, pounding some districts of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood and forcing many families to leave their homes, residents said. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is examining a plan to seal off humanitarian aid to northern Gaza in an attempt to starve out Hamas militants, a plan that, if implemented, could trap without food or water hundreds of thousands of Palestinians unwilling or unable to leave their homes. – Associated Press

The Israeli military said it intercepted two drones approaching from Syria on Monday, a day after a drone attack by Lebanon’s Hezbollah on a base killed four soldiers. – Agence France-Presse

Jordan has called for countries to impose an arms embargo on Israel to pressure it to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. Its call follows similar ones by France and Spain. – Haaretz

Two Israelis have been arrested for carrying out a series of acts of sabotage on behalf of Iran and plotting to kill a senior Israeli figure, the Shin Bet and Israel Police announced in a joint statement Monday. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The soldiers are incredible and are doing everything they can after more than a year of fighting, of strains on personal relationships, of mental and physical health overloads. But the issue with the decision-makers remains: a government that can’t protect its people, not from Hamas and not from Hezbollah, and continues to do so systemically with such a painful war perhaps needs to reevaluate its paths, old and new. – Jerusalem Post

Ruth Kabbesa Abramzon writes: Whether Biden, Harris, or the convergence of interests of both, the coming days and articulate Israeli spokesmen should be used to mobilize the Americans to head the coalition of blessed countries and free the world from the curse of the ayatollahs. The bottom line is that even if the United States does not assume its historic role, Israel has the obligation, and the right, to destroy the Iranian nuclear project. – Jerusalem Post

Elie Podeh writes: The notion of “victory” is elusive, as all parties involved will likely frame the conflict as a success for themselves. Significant objectives could include inflicting substantial damage on Iran, pushing Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border, dismantling its military capabilities, restoring a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) in demilitarized Gaza, and securing the return of hostages. Achieving these goals would provide justifiable grounds for concluding the war. – Jerusalem Post

Douglas Altabef writes: Fair enough, but they provide frameworks for practical actions all designed to get to optimal outcomes. Victory is no longer just an aspiration; it is now a strategic outlook. With all the pressures on it, Israeli leadership is increasingly seeing victory as the only direction, the only outcome that has the chance of providing enduring peace, for Israel and for the larger region. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

The Biden administration said Friday that it was tightening sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran’s large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month. – Wall Street Journal

Foreign ministers from the European Union have approved new sanctions against seven individuals and seven entities linked to Iran after Kyiv’s Western allies accused Tehran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia to aid in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

Britain has imposed sanctions against Iranian individuals and organisations after Iran’s attack on Israel on Oct. 1, Britain’s Foreign Office said on Monday. – Reuters

Iran has sent two locally made satellites to Russia to be put into orbit by a Russian space vehicle, the semi-official news agency Tasnim reported on Saturday, in the latest space cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries. – Reuters

Iran condemned new EU and British sanctions on Tehran and denied providing ballistic missiles to Russia, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, said in a post on X on Tuesday. – Reuters

An Iranian court cleared two jailed journalists of collaborating with the United States, and reduced their sentences over reports about a woman’s death that had helped trigger protests in 2022, Iran’s worst domestic unrest for decades. – Reuters

Iran has increased its oil exports during the Biden administration despite severe and heavy sanctions imposed by the U.S. government, according to a new report. – Fox News

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that his country would do whatever necessary to defend itself against Israel. – Politico

Iran has banned pagers and walkie-talkies on all flights, local media reported Saturday, almost a month after deadly sabotage attacks on Hezbollah members in Lebanon which were blamed on Israel. – Agence France-Presse

Iran said Monday it currently sees “no grounds” for its indirect talks with the United States via intermediary Oman, citing the crisis in the Middle East. – Agence France-Presse

Iran held a series of diplomatic talks on Sunday, with President Masoud Pezeshkian seeking support from France’s Emmanuel Macron for a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the foreign minister visiting Iraq while on a regional tour. – Agence France-Presse

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf denounced Israel’s “crimes” on Saturday as he visited the site of the deadliest Israeli strikes on central Beirut in recent weeks, an AFP photographer said. – Agence France-Presse

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met in Muscat on Monday with Mohammed Abdelsalam, a senior official from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, according to his office. – Times of Israel

Iranian commander Esmail Qaani on Tuesday appeared in public after weeks of absence to attend the funeral ceremony for general Abbas Nilforoushan, who was killed last month in Lebanon. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: Given this context, the new U.S. oil sanctions look like an attempt to persuade the Israelis not to hit Iranian oil fields in its retaliatory attack. Mr. Biden is afraid this would cause oil prices to spike in the final weeks of the presidential election campaign. A change from appeasing Iran would be welcome, but the record suggests it’s wise to believe the U.S. enforcement when we see it. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Reports emerged over the weekend that American soldiers will make their way to Israel to help operate Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense systems, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Thus – despite public tensions– their presence concretizes that Israel still retains the support of its most powerful ally in the US in defending its soil. Iran is still awaiting Israel’s response to their October attack, which Israeli leaders have promised as substantial. The Islamic Republic has reason to be nervous. – Jerusalem Post

Salem Alketbi writes: Khamenei’s audacious attempt to mobilize Islamic public opinion behind Iran’s goals is a clear ploy to bolster his regime’s negotiating position and try to embarrass Arab and Islamic governments in front of their people – or at least spark heated debates on social media platforms regarding support or opposition to the missile attacks Iran carried out against Israel. Such attempts, however, have little chance of success for one simple reason: Iran itself is so exposed that it is hard to persuade even a simpleton that it is fighting to start revolutions and liberate Palestine or Jerusalem. – Jerusalem Post

Mordechai Kedar writes: If the Armenian leadership has demonstrated that they are willing to allow Ruben Vardanyan, the leader of the Karabakh Armenians, to continue to sit in a Baku jail only to ensure that a peace agreement is signed with Baku, then why would they interfere with Russia controlling the Zangezur Corridor over their territory for the sake of peace? Why bother trading with Iran when Armenia can soon trade with France, Britain, and the US, utilizing Turkish and Azerbaijani territory in the framework of a peace agreement? This leaves Tehran out in the cold in the Caucasus, with no wins to show in the foreseeable future as Israel closes in on the mullahs and their proxies. – Jerusalem Post 

Arash Azizi writes: But he says that such a big “paradigm shift” will be difficult to pull off with Khamenei still in power. The leader is 85, and no one really knows who will succeed him, or whether that succession will bring in new outlooks and commitments; such uncertainty complicates planning for anything beyond the visible horizon. In the meantime, Khamenei holds his nation hostage to a doctrine that courts the conflict it also seeks to avoid. Iran needs to make a historic shift if it is to avert a disastrous war that few Iranians want—and begin building a better future instead. – The Atlantic

Carol E. B. Choksy and Jamsheed K. Choksy write: Iran’s leaders are not crazy fanatics; they are calculating and focused on the long-term durability of their rule. And the mood of their own citizens is shifting rapidly when it comes to atomic munitions. Many in the West may be reluctant to face the truth: that the past year has only made nuclear weapons a more attractive tool for the Iranian regime’s own survival. – Foreign Affairs

Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi write: Ultimately, the only thing that could prevent Iran from becoming more extreme is the unraveling of the regime itself. Such a collapse could be in the cards. The Islamic Republic is deeply, and increasingly, unpopular with its constituents, and most Iranians would almost certainly prefer a different, secular, and more peaceful government. But the regime has faced down decades of mass protests without being rocked. It has proved highly resilient to every challenge, despite its disastrous economic performance. For now, a more radical Iran is all but inevitable. No one should bet on anything less. – Foreign Affairs

Farzin Nadimi and Simon Henderson write: Building on President Biden’s remarks on October 4, in which he discouraged attacks on Iran’s oil facilities, the administration should continue dissuading Israel from striking such targets. Israel would yield better effects by concentrating any attack on a single regime military, security, or intelligence organization, especially the IRGC or Basij security headquarters, or a facility that directly supports Iran’s missile program, regional proxy operations, or oppression of its own people. Singling out a regime target would present the least risk of escalation to all-out war, and may not hold as many risks for regional and global energy supplies either. – Washington Institute

Arash Reisinezhad writes: Iran’s second strike on Israeli soil with a barrage of missiles on October 1 marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two regional powers. After Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and the more recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Beirut, Iran launched an overt, substantial, and direct attack against its sworn enemy. The Iran-Israel conflict now risks pushing the entire Middle East to the brink of a full regional war. – Foreign Policy

Ilan Berman writes: That, in turn, argues strongly for Israel’s response, when it does ultimately arrive, to include the targeting of Iran’s nuclear program in some fashion – no matter how difficult such an effort might be. In other words, Israel is now contemplating the same fateful choice that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy laid out way back in 2007: either “the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.” – National Interest

Russia & Ukraine

The cutting edge of drone warfare is the front line of Ukraine’s defense against Russia, where soldiers and manufacturers are innovating to counter Moscow’s battlefield advantages. – Wall  Street Journal

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday announced a 1.4 billion euro ($1.53 billion) military aid package for Ukraine by the end of 2024, telling President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that it was a signal to Russia that the West would not stop supporting Kyiv. – Reuters

France called on Monday for the immediate release of French researcher Laurent Vinatier after he was found guilty by a Moscow court of breaking Russia’s “foreign agent” laws and sentenced to three years in prison. – Reuters

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Monday that its forces had taken control of the village of Levadne in a part of southeast Ukraine where control has swung back and forth between the two sides since the start of the conflict. – Reuters

Russia’s Vladimir Putin held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday in Turkmenistan, where the two leaders hailed their countries growing economic ties and similar views on world affairs, an entente viewed with concern by the United States. – Reuters

Another Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa damaged two civilian vessels and a grain storage on Monday, killing one person and injuring at least eight, Ukrainian authorities said. – Reuters

The Kremlin said that NATO’s annual nuclear exercise involving nuclear-capable military aircraft, which began on Monday, was fuelling tensions in light of the “hot war” unfolding in Ukraine. – Reuters

Russian glide bombs have struck a concentration of Ukrainian troops near the border of Russia’s western Kursk region, the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russia is proposing changes to cross-border payments conducted among BRICS countries aimed at circumventing the global financial system, as the heavily penalized country seeks to sanctions-proof its own economy. – Bloomberg

India has surged to become the second-biggest supplier of restricted critical technologies to Russia, US and European officials said, highlighting the challenge in efforts to choke off exports fueling President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian drones, targeting Russian military sites, are zeroing in on missiles and artillery stockpiles from North Korea, now Russia’s top arms supplier. At the same time, a Ukrainian missile killed six North Korean military officers and wounded three more last week in occupied Ukraine. These are believed to be the first soldiers sent by a foreign government to bolster Russia. – New York Sun

Several state institutions in Ukraine on October 14 were evacuated after hundreds of schools, businesses, embassies, and media outlets received e-mails threatening a terrorist attack that appeared to be linked to an RFE/RL investigation into Russian security services’ activities in Ukraine. – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Russia’s coming economic crash has three implications. First, if Ukraine holds out and gets the support it needds, it will win, if only because Russia will lose. Second, the time to negotiate with Putin is in 2025, when his military and economy bog down — not now, when he’s still in chest-beating mode. And third, Putin may soon come to resemble France’s Louis XVI, who faced a similar problem in 1789, when a financial crisis forced him to convene the Estates General. And we all know what happened next. – The Hill

Mark Episkopos writes: NATO’s present levels of military and political support, coupled with the international sanctions regime on Russia, already give it considerable influence in paving the way for negotiations on the best possible terms for the West and Ukraine.The time has come for Western leaders, in close consultations with Kyiv, to cash in that leverage. This will require vision and initiative in abundance, but the costs of inaction — both to Ukraine’s deteriorating battlefield position and in growing risks of catastrophic escalation — are much greater. – The Hill

Keith Johnson writes: The latest Russian offensive in Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, threatens to finally topple the city of Pokrovsk—and that carries both military and economic risks for a beleaguered Ukraine already bracing for its most challenging winter of the war. Pokrovsk, a once-vibrant city of 80,000 people, is the object of a Russian encircling move that began in July and is creeping within miles of the city as every day passes. – Foreign Policy

Hezbollah

The Lebanese militia Hezbollah struck an Israeli military base in central Israel with a drone, killing four soldiers and wounding dozens, highlighting a weak spot in Israel’s vaunted air defense system that military officials say is hard to counter. – Wall Street Journal

One of the worst mass casualty strikes on Israel in a year of war came not from dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles nor the repeated barrages of rocket fire launched by Hamas and Hezbollah. Instead, it was a single drone. – Associated Press

Hezbollah is facing a “financial crisis” and cannot pay its members as Israel’s offensive on the Iran-backed, Lebanon-based terror group continues, according to a recent media report. – Times of Israel

Iraq

The Iraqi government is struggling to rein in powerful pro-Iran factions that risk pulling Iraq into a regional war, as fighting in Gaza and Lebanon threatens to spread further. – Agence France-Presse

The funeral procession for Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was killed in an Israeli air strike alongside Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, began in Iraq on Monday, an AFP photographer saw. – Agence France-Presse

Iraq’s support is mainly directed at Lebanese Shiites and the families of Hezbollah fighters, with refugees from other sects and religions receiving little to no assistance. – Jerusalem Post

Turkey

Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis will meet his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Athens on Nov. 8 to discuss bilateral issues including the demarcation of an exclusive economic zone, diplomatic sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The leaders of Turkey and Serbia said their countries might begin jointly producing military drones. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on October 11 during a visit to Belgrade that he and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic discussed the capabilities that the Turkish industry has in air assets, adding that could be a basis for cooperation in the defense industries of the two countries. – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

Turkey’s ruling AK Party submitted a bill on Friday that would raise $2 billion annually for the country’s defence industry fund, Abdullah Guler, chair of the party’s parliamentary group said. – Reuters

Lebanon

Israel is intensifying its air and ground offensive in Lebanon after suspected Israeli strikes in central Beirut and United Nations peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon said explosions hit close to their positions. – Wall Street Journal

Israel expanded its targets in its war with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Monday, killing at least 21 people in an airstrike in the north, health officials said, while millions of Israelis took shelter from projectiles fired back across the border. – Reuters

Lebanon’s health ministry said Saturday that at least 15 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on three areas considered outside Hezbollah’s traditional strongholds, updating earlier tolls. – Agence France-Presse

The United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon said new explosions hit its headquarters Friday, injuring two peacekeepers a day after Israeli forces targeted the same position and struck central Beirut. – Associated Press

The United Nations said on Sunday Israeli tanks had burst through the gates of a base of its peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, the latest accusation of Israeli violations and attacks denounced by its own allies. – Reuters

The United Nations Security Council on Monday expressed strong concern after several U.N. peacekeeping positions in southern Lebanon came under fire amid clashes between the Israeli military and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. – Reuters

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on Sunday that any attacks against peacekeepers “may constitute a war crime,” his spokesperson said after Israeli tanks burst through the gates of a peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday rejected accusations that Israeli troops had deliberately targeted UNIFIL peacekeepers in Lebanon as “completely false” and repeated a call for them to be withdrawn from combat zones. – Reuters

A top United Nations official said during a visit to Beirut Saturday that he is concerned that Lebanon’s ports and airport might be taken out of service, with serious implications for getting food supplies into the county, as Israel continues its offensive against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. – Associated Press

Forty countries contributing to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon on Saturday condemned recent Israeli attacks on the mission and called for an investigation of the incidents. – Politico

Loubna Mrie writes: But the rising death toll in Lebanon also suggests a bitter truth. I am reminded of other moments in our region’s history—the deaths of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi, for example—that seemed at first to render justice but only perpetuated the cycle of violence. In our region, we sometimes feel as though accountability is destined to be followed by more destruction and bloodshed—as though we can never say that the scales have tipped in our favor without questioning the cost. – The Atlantic

Eliot Wilson writes: Our increasingly polarized world is a cold climate for multilateral organizations. As violence flares, ethnic tensions boil over and trade barriers are erected, it is difficult to see not only how but why nations should submit to an overarching jurisdiction that ineffectively preaches a sometimes-contentious common good. The U.N. relies in principle on a strange combination of idealism and moral relativism, while in practice it is just a backdrop to great power politics and expression of historic grievances. That is not a sustainable future. – The Hill

Douglas Murray writes: There would be no need for another war in Lebanon if the UN had actually done its job for the past 18 years. As I drive south from the border, rockets start to land again all over northern and central Israel — leaving some 67 people in the Jewish state wounded in Haifa. And the sound of Israel’s response rings out, too. The UN will now castigate Israel and America for not implementing a cease-fire in the region. On the basis of what I have just seen, perhaps someone should remind the UN that it helped start this fire. – New York Post

Arabian Peninsula

Tehran is threatening in secret diplomatic backchannels to target the oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran, said Arab officials. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration approved the sale of billions of dollars in weapons to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a fresh show of support to two allies that are crucial to the US pushback against Iran and its proxies as conflict escalates in the Middle East. – Bloomberg

Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, said on Tuesday Israel deliberately chose to expand what he called its “aggression” to implement pre-planned schemes in the West Bank and Lebanon. – Reuters

Michael Knights and Elizabeth Dent write: Whenever Iran and its proxies demonstrate that they can hit foreign targets without suffering heavy costs, the Gulf states will look to deepen their pursuit of rapprochement with Tehran. To ensure that this pursuit does not come at the expense of Gulf IAMD efforts, the United States should support an Israeli deterrent response. – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday there was deep concern in Asia about the prospect of conflict spreading in the Middle East, as the U.N. chief called for everything possible to be done to avoid “all-out war” in Lebanon. – Reuters

A regional partnership of 10 countries says an agreement on the equitable use of water resources from the Nile River basin has come into force despite the notable opposition of Egypt. – Associated Press

King Mohammed VI on Friday reaffirmed that settling sovereignty disputes over the Western Sahara remains the driving force behind Morocco’s foreign policy, lauding diplomatic triumphs and framing them as progress toward resolving the decades-long conflict in Morocco’s favor. – Associated Press

Michael Knights, Amir al-Kaabi, and Hamdi Malik write: Attacks on U.S. and coalition bases in Iraq and Syria, which were the predominant category until the temporary cessation of anti-U.S. attacks in February-July 2024.  We can have very high confidence these claimed anti-coalition attacks occurred in reality. Attacks on Israel claimed by Iraqi groups, which have been almost the only attacks reported since February 2024. We have moderate to high confidence that most or all of these attacks did occur (i.e., were launched) but there is very little evidence of effective strikes in Israel itself, suggesting a very low arrival rate due to interceptions over Syria, Iraq and Jordan. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

North Korea on Friday accused South Korea of sending unmanned drones to scatter propaganda leaflets over its capital city, Pyongyang, and threatened military action if the flights continued. – New York Times

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week confirmed reports of North Korean troops supporting Russians inside Ukraine, warning that the alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang is growing stronger and evolving beyond transferring weapons. – Washington Post

North Korea’s artillery units near the border with South Korea have been ordered to be ready to fire amid frictions over drones that Pyongyang says are being flown over the frontier, state media cited the government as saying on Sunday. – Reuters

North Korea has blown up sections of inter-Korean roads and rail lines on its side of the heavily fortified border between the two Koreas, South Korea’s military said on Tuesday, ratcheting up tensions on the Korean peninsula. – Reuters

Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused South Korea on Monday of boosting tension in its relations with the Communist North and called for diplomacy in restoring calm and security on the Korean peninsula. – Reuters

South Korea has found GPS transmitters in some of North Korea’s balloons floated across the border, Yonhap News reported Sunday, a possible bid by Pyongyang to enhance the precision of efforts to dump trash and gather data. – Bloomberg

Jacob Bogle writes: As is so often in these cases, only time will tell. But it does look like this renewed Russo-DPRK friendship can only lead to a win-lose outcome, with Putin not only destroying Russia’s standing in the world but also cracking the foundations of the international order that has previously enabled the most prosperous period in human history, and, coincidentally, provides North Korea with more opportunities to violate the law. In Putin’s vision of a multipolar future, Russia will remain in the shadows. – National Interest

Bruce W. Bennett writes: Also, North Korean military life supporting the Russian military in captured Ukrainian territory is likely not very good. Russian treatment may make many of those North Korean soldiers receptive to psychological operations against the North Korean regime, an opportunity that should not be missed. This new cooperation between Russia and North Korea is hardly a signal of a budding long-term alliance and U.S. information campaigns could help speed its demise. – National Interest

China

Beijing is conducting espionage activities on what Western governments say is an unprecedented scale, mobilizing security agencies, private companies and Chinese civilians in its quest to undermine rival states and bolster the country’s economy. – Wall Street Journal

China said on Monday it would punish and sanction Taiwanese businessman Robert Tsao and lawmaker Puma Shen for alleged criminal and pro-Taiwan independence activities. – Reuters

Russia and China blocked a proposed consensus statement for the East Asia Summit drafted by Southeast Asian countries, mainly over objections to language on the contested South China Sea, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday. – Reuters

Vietnam and China signed 10 agreements ranging from agriculture cooperation to cross-border QR code payments on Sunday, during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s three-day visit to Hanoi, as the two neighbours seek to boost ties. – Reuters

China is studying further trade measures against Taiwan, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday, two days after Beijing denounced a speech by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. – Reuters

Trade negotiations between the European Union and China have been plagued by major disagreements, with planned tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles likely to kick in at the end of the month. – Bloomberg

A summit in Laos this week was an opportunity for the Biden administration to showcase the relationships it has cultivated across Asia since renewing a diplomatic push three years ago. Instead, China appeared to seize the moment with a slate of new agreements. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Canada and India expelled diplomats from each country on Monday, intensifying a dispute over the killing of a Sikh activist last year. – Wall Street Journal

Myanmar’s military has been ramping up its use of drones, deploying a combination of retrofitted commercial drones and customized military munitions to carry out a torrent of deadly strikes against rebel forces and civilians […]Russia’s defense ministry has publicly confirmed that Myanmar has at least one type of Russian surveillance drone, the Orlan 10E, in its arsenal. – Washington Post

An Indian government committee investigating Indian involvement in a foiled murder plot against a prominent activist in the United States will meet U.S. officials in Washington this week, the State Department said on Monday. – Reuters

Pakistan is hosting a major security meeting this week, with senior leaders from longtime ally China and archrival India among those attending. – Associated Press

China’s Premier Li Qiang on Monday inaugurated a Beijing-funded airport built in restive southwestern Pakistan a week after militants killed two Chinese workers, as he arrived for a regional security meeting in Islamabad. – Associated Press

Naad-e-Ali Sulehria writes: If Pakistan cannot protect Chinese workers and projects, it risks losing control over its own security governance. China, which has already shifted its focus from economic expansion under the BRI to a more security-driven approach through its Global Security Initiative, may increase its security involvement in Pakistan. Though China has not yet formalized overseas military deployments or bilateral security agreements under this initiative, it has begun using BRI-related port facilities for military purposes, as evidenced by the opening of its naval base in Djibouti in 2017. – Middle East Institute

Asia

China said it concluded a day of “around-the-clock” drills around Taiwan, sending a record number of military aircraft and saying for the first time that it had deployed its coast guard to encircle the self-ruled democracy’s main island. – Wall Street Journal

Taiwan reported a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailing to the island’s south on Sunday, as China’s military put out a video saying it was “prepared for battle” amid concerns in Taipei about the possibility of a new round of Chinese war games. – Reuters

Japan has conveyed to China its concern over the military drills conducted around Taiwan on Monday, Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki told a regular press conference. – Reuters

The Philippines’ Bureau of Fisheries said a “Chinese maritime militia” boat deliberately sideswiped one of its two vessels that were conducting a routine maritime patrol in the vicinity of Thitu island in the South China Sea last Friday. – Reuters

The Philippines doubts China’s intention to negotiate a regional code of conduct in the South China Sea although Manila is looking forward to continuing discussions, Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro said on Monday. – Reuters

Japan is considering stepping up purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for emergency needs to at least 12 cargoes a year from three now, an official of its industry ministry said, to guard against unexpected supply shocks. – Reuters

Pacific Island nations are at risk of becoming bases for global criminal gangs, a report by the United Nations drug authority said on Friday, as criminal activity surges across the isolated and economically vulnerable region. – Reuters

Europe

The European Union said on Monday it had imposed restrictive measures on five individuals and one entity for actions it deems as destabilising Moldova, part of the bloc’s efforts to counter Russian influence in the country. – Reuters

NATO will not be cowed by Russian threats but keep up its strong support of Kyiv, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on his first visit to the alliance’s Ukraine mission in Wiesbaden, set to take over the coordination of military aid from the U.S. – Reuters

Members of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government have expressed concerns about plans to suspend the right to asylum, amid unease that the measures may break the constitution and international law. – Reuters

European Union leaders are set to warn Georgia that its government is jeopardising the country’s path towards the EU ahead of a parliamentary election later this month, according to a draft text. – Reuters

Chancellor Olaf Scholz will hold talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Oct. 19, the German leader’s spokesman said Friday. Scholz and Erdogan will discuss issues including Russia’s war on Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, immigration policy and bilateral economic ties. – Bloomberg

Another Chinese Communist party official is visiting Serbia in the latest sign of close cooperation between the two countries. – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty 

Tom Rogan writes: However, Israel’s prosecution of its war effort has generally been focused on killing terrorists while simultaneously mitigating civilian harm. It has defended its people and taken a lot of very bad actors off the board. In contrast, among its many other crimes, the CCP is continuing a genocide that has seen nearly 2 million innocents forced into concentration camps of rape, reeducation, murder, and despair. Targeting Israel is easy and plays well with Sanchez’s Socialist base. However, when it comes to Xi and human rights, the prime minister has a well-understood pacto del olvido. – Washington Examiner

Africa

A surprise deal that could allow Ethiopia to base warships in a breakaway region of Somalia is stoking tensions throughout a corner of Africa already ablaze with militant violence. – Wall Street Journal

Sudan’s devastating civil war is being fueled in part by weapons secretly supplied to both sides by foreign countries, including munitions and drones from the United Arab Emirates and Iran, according to confidential assessments, a State Department funded report and evidence collected from captured weapons in Sudan. – Washington Post

Kenya will send 600 more police officers to Haiti next month to bolster an international anti-gang mission, President William Ruto said on Friday during a visit by the Haitian prime minister intended to speed up deployments to the force. – Reuters

International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan said on Monday his office will renew an investigation into Democratic Republic of Congo, focusing on alleged crimes committed in the North Kivu province since January 2022. – Reuters

Somalia says Egypt has offered to deploy peacekeeping troops to the Horn of Africa nation in a security partnership that is emerging as the mandate of a long-time group of African Union peacekeepers winds down. – Associated Press

Ukraine denied late on Monday media reports that it has been involved in supplying drones to rebels fighting in the north of Mali. – Reuters

Richard Morrow writes: President Biden chose not to visit Ethiopia to celebrate the two-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement, which saw the U.S. help negotiate a ceasefire in the Tigray Conflict. Nor did he plan to visit South Africa, a country whose ruling African National Congress peacefully entered a coalition after losing its 30-year majority rule in the country’s recent national elections. Instead, he selected a country where democracy is in decline, but a vital economic opportunity awaits. – The Hill

Jonathan Freedland writes: Faced with that conundrum, it’s easier just to declare the whole thing too complicated and look the other way […]The people of Sudan should not have to apologise for the fact that their tragedy does not fit the storybook version of morality that so many seem to hanker for. It is us who should apologise to them, for ignoring them in their desperation – and for pretending we ever cared. – The Guardian

Samuel Bashfield writes: As treaty talks commence, various groups are vocalizing opposition to a deal. Some Conservative members of parliament are railing against the announcement and some Chagossian groups are likewise dismayed. These efforts to obstruct a deal should be watched closely as treaty talks commence. Amid this resistance, it’s now up to Mauritius and the United Kingdom to conclude a treaty that simultaneously safeguards the Anglo-American joint military facility on Diego Garcia, finalizes Mauritius’ decolonization process in accordance with international law, and allows the forcibly displaced Chagossians to resettle. – War on the Rocks

Latin America

The Dominican Republic announced this week that it had repatriated or deported almost 11,000 Haitians as a part of a new large-scale plan to curb Haitian migration to the country. – Washington Post

Nicaragua is breaking off diplomatic relations with Israel, the Central American nation said on Friday, calling the Israeli government “fascist” and “genocidal.” –  Reuters

Ukraine’s top prosecutor said he had received intelligence indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attend the G20 summit in Brazil next month and called on authorities there to carry out a warrant for his arrest if he showed up. – Reuters

Venezuela has canceled the passports of dozens of journalists and activists since President Nicolas Maduro claimed a re-election victory, part of what rights groups say is an intensifying campaign of repression against the authoritarian president’s opponents, the Financial Times reported on Saturday. – Reuters

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Friday it made “no sense” for the U.S. Department of Justice to request information from Saab (SAABb.ST), opens new tab over Brazil’s purchase of the Swedish firm’s Gripen fighter jets in 2014. – Reuters

The leaders of Kenya and Haiti on Friday urged international partners to honor their commitment to the U.N.-backed peacekeeping mission in Haiti, saying the mission needs more resources and that its budget will run out in March 2025. – Associated Press

North America

A Jewish school in Toronto was hit by gunfire early Saturday for the second time this year, local police said, amid a rise in antisemitic attacks in Canada in the wake of the war between Israel and Iran-backed terror groups in the Middle East. – Agence France-Presse

The decapitated bodies of five men have been found on a road in central Mexico, in an area controlled by the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel. – BBC

Joe Oliver writes: Justin Trudeau has failed the minimum requirements for decency, moral clarity and national self-interest. Is it due to a desperate concern about vanishing votes in selected ridings, a lack of strategic vision, or a twisted post-modern ideology? Regardless, the sooner Canada is rid of the moral rot, the sooner Canadians can hold their heads high again. – National Post

United States

The United States has warned the Iranian government to stop all plotting against Republican Donald Trump and said that Washington would view any attempt on his life as an act of war, a U.S. official said on Monday. – Reuters

Fareed Zakaria writes: The last time the United States faced an alliance of hostile powers — during the Cold War — it effectively sowed discord within the Communist world, maintaining good relations with countries such as Yugoslavia and Romania and, above all, dividing China from the Soviet Union. But in a Washington that today sees the world in black and white, I wonder whether we have the diplomatic skill and acuity to pursue a sophisticated strategy like that one. – Washington Post

Beth Bailey writes: Another activist calls followers to “bring Empire to its knees.” Another asks, “What is next? To strike at the heart of Empire.” With antisemitism raging within the U.S. and the conflicts in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon only growing, Canary Mission’s report is timed at a crucial juncture. In its own words, anti-Israel activists demonstrate preparations to increase the ferocity of their efforts to bring down Israel and the West from within. America must prepare to head off the war that protesters seek to bring home by demanding that our leaders enforce our laws, speak truth to propaganda, and stand for tolerance and peace amid rising calls for hate. – Washington Examiner

Cybersecurity

Russian forces have become deadlier and more agile with the help of illicit Starlink terminals, allowing them to use satellite internet to enhance coordination during assaults, fly more drone sorties and batter Ukrainian troops with accurate artillery fire despite U.S. efforts to stop the flow of technology. – Washington Post

Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab said on Friday it had removed a network of group accounts targeting Russian-speakers in Moldova ahead of the country’s Oct. 20 election, for violation of the company’s policy on fake accounts. – Reuters

The websites of Russian general jurisdiction courts have been down for several days following a cyberattack claimed by pro-Ukrainian hackers. – The Record

Russian government hackers are targeting known, unpatched vulnerabilities to victimize specific organizations like governments and defense contractors while also scanning the internet for any susceptible systems to attack, U.S. and U.K. cyber agencies said in a joint alert. – Cyberscoop

Defense

During this past year the Army sent a division headquarters and its enablers into a large-scale, on-the-ground exercise to learn how these personnel groups will approach surviving the next war. It was the first time in decades that division headquarters and the myriad units it would go into combat with — a combat aviation brigade, sustainment, air defense brigade and division artillery — trained together in person. – Defense News

The Space Force wants to transition the first of its space domain awareness satellite programs to a new cloud-based ground system as soon as next spring — and rather than work with a traditional defense contractor, it’s formed a consortium of small, commercial firms to help it modernize satellite operations. – Defense News

The U.S. Army command for the Indo-Pacific finds itself at the front of the service’s transformation initiative, incorporating new unit types created to facilitate rapid adaptation to adversary tactics, according to U.S. Army Pacific Command chief Gen. Charles Flynn. – Defense News

From pistol rounds to artillery shells, the Army is developing a host of new ways to destroy targets large and small. The service is working on one-way tracer rounds for current standard rifle ammunition and reduced-range training rounds for some of the same cartridges. – Defense News

As the Army updates how it uses robots and autonomous systems in the next fiscal year, drone swarms, automated convoy operations and an exoskeleton to lighten the load are on the horizon. – Defense News

Long War

Norway is introducing temporary border checks on its frontiers with other Western European nations after the domestic security agency raised the terror threat level, police said Saturday. – Associated Press

A series of U.S. airstrikes targeted several camps run by the Islamic State group in Syria in an operation the U.S. military said will disrupt the extremists from conducting attacks in the region and beyond. – Associated Press

Islamist militants stormed a northwestern Pakistani district police office on Monday, killing three policemen and a civilian before police shot and killed all five attackers. – Reuters

Former Senegalese President Macky Sall said Africa’s fight against terrorism should be a global concern and the continent isn’t getting enough support in its effort to combat the scourge. – Bloomberg

A person was critically wounded in a suspected shooting terror attack on Road 4 near Ashdod, the police reported on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post