Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump wants to quickly pivot from a Gaza cease-fire to the thornier problem of a broader peace in the Middle East, betting that two years of war transformed the region so much that decades-old animosities can be set aside. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Gaza on Saturday as postwar planning stepped up, Hamas police re-emerged on the streets, and Palestinians began returning to their homes en masse following the withdrawal of Israeli troops. – Wall Street Journal

The deployment of American troops to Israel this weekend marks the start of an extraordinarily complex effort to secure a fragile peace in Gaza and establish a framework to govern the enclave. – Wall Street Journal

But two days later, Hamas came back to Arab mediators with a yes. The deal hadn’t changed. The pressure on Hamas had. Egypt and Qatar told Hayya the deal was his last chance to end the war, according to the officials. They pressed Hamas to understand that holding the hostages was becoming a strategic liability, giving Israel a source of legitimacy to keep fighting. – Wall Street Journal

Even as key Arab states condemned the war in the Gaza Strip, they quietly expanded security cooperation with the Israeli military, leaked U.S. documents reveal. Those military ties were thrown into crisis after Israel’s September airstrike in Qatar, but could now play a key role in overseeing the nascent ceasefire in Gaza. – Washington Post

After assassinating a top Hamas commander, Muhammed Sinwar, in May 2025, the Israeli military sent a special unit into an underground complex he had used. There, they found a computer unconnected to a network — and much harder to access by Israeli operations spying on Hamas communications. – New York Times

Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday under a ceasefire deal and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared the end of the two-year long war that has upended the broader Middle East. – Reuters

Hamas forces have killed 32 members of “a gang” in Gaza City in a security campaign launched after a ceasefire came into effect on Friday, while six of its personnel were also killed in the violence, a Palestinian security source said on Monday. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not attend Monday’s summit on ending the Gaza war in Egypt, his office said, after Cairo had earlier announced he would take part, a prospect that could have been awkward for some confirmed guests. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump urged Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, during an address to the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem. – Reuters

The most popular and potentially unifying Palestinian leader — Marwan Barghouti — is not among the prisoners Israel intends to free in exchange for hostages held by Hamas under the new Gaza ceasefire deal. – Associated Press

Israel plans to destroy what remains of Hamas’s network of tunnels under Gaza, working with US approval after its hostages are freed, it said Sunday. – Al Arabiya

A Hamas source close to the group’s negotiating committee told AFP on Sunday that it will not participate in post-war Gaza governance, as world leaders prepare to converge on Egypt for a Gaza peace summit. – Agence France-Presse

Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk stormed out of an interview Saturday with the pan-Arab al-Ghad channel after being questioned about the impact on the people of Gaza of the October 7, 2023, invasion and massacre. – Times of Israel

The bodies of four hostages arrived at the forensic facility on Monday night, where experts will confirm the identities of the hostages and the cause of death. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: That means ditching permanent refugee status and other features of the old Gaza that was built by the United Nations to keep alive the dream of destroying Israel. We will soon learn if the Arab states are serious about Mr. Trump’s plan. Will they disarm Hamas? Blow up its tunnels? Risk their soldiers’ lives to keep Hamas down? If not, count on them to protest when Israel does it for them. Israel in turn will count on Mr. Trump for the “full backing” he has promised. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: One of the reasons Hamas launched the Oct. 7 attacks was to stop additional Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, from joining. Trump said on Monday that the best way to finish the job after crushing Hamas is to get more Arab countries to join the accords. For now, the immediate priorities will be surging humanitarian aid into Gaza and standing up a functioning Palestinian administration. That will take years, if not decades. On this first day after the war, however, Arabs, Israelis and Americans can celebrate this important step. – Washington Post

Amir Avivi writes: The implications of this deal extend far beyond Israel’s borders. The collapse of Hamas has exposed the fragility of the Muslim Brotherhood’s regional network. Across the region—from Cairo to Doha and from Ankara to Ramallah—the ideological scaffolding that has long propped up extremist movements is crumbling. […] There’s much work to be done. The road to lasting peace is long and fraught with complexity. But today we allow ourselves to celebrate the pending return of our loved ones, the strength and discipline of our defense forces, and the possibility that the Middle East’s Yalta moment could forever reshape the region. – Wall Street Journal

Elliot Kaufman writes: A month later, that pipe dream has been christened “the Trump deal” and Hamas has agreed to it. That strike in Doha is believed to have sent the Qataris spinning; after Mr. Trump’s placations, they leaned on Hamas to take the deal. You don’t have to believe that Mr. Netanyahu planned it all out—I don’t. And the costs of the long war were all too real. But by continuing to fight, the prime minister kept Israel’s options open to achieve its war aims and smash the Iranian proxy axis and nuclear program when the opportunities came around. Ultimately, he secured better terms for the hostages’ release and the war’s end. So who’s being political? – Wall Street Journal

Matthew Levitt writes: Finally, they should quickly establish a temporary, transitional body of technocrats to oversee the massive undertaking of reconstructing and governing postwar Gaza. Without these additional security and governance structures, Gaza will be left with what now exists on the ground: namely, Hamas-run security forces and government ministries. But it doesn’t have to be this way. By constructing these alternatives, the governments that helped forge the cease-fire can also help disarm and disempower Hamas. – Foreign Affairs

Seth Mandel writes: Instead, Trump is having the time of his life. He loves it when Israel wins. Bannon is the one who is tired of all the winning. What this past year has revealed is that Trump likes Israel. That the special relationship between the two countries is still there, still holding on, despite the woke right’s attempt to sabotage it. The haters don’t like it, but the fact remains: America and Israel are good together, and together they are good for the world. – Commentary

Russia and Ukraine

First lady Melania Trump said she has an “open channel of communication” with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the welfare of children affected by the war in Ukraine that has resulted in the reunification of eight children displaced since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in the past 24 hours. – Wall Street Journal

Movement on the front lines in Ukraine has largely stalled in a bloody stalemate. The Trump administration’s peace talks haven’t budged since Russia turned down a cease-fire in August. But Ukrainian officials argue that they still have a strategy to end the war: Strike deep inside Russia with missiles and drones. – New York Times

The U.S. has been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities for months in a joint effort to weaken the economy and force President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that he would meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, where the two would discuss Ukraine’s air defence and long-range strike capabilities. – Reuters

Russian forces attacked Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, with guided bombs on Monday, knocking out power to 30,000 customers in three districts, local officials said. – Reuters

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that supplying U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine could end badly for everyone, especially U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

NATO chief Mark Rutte mocked Russia on Monday over the “limping” condition of one of its submarines as Russian authorities denied it had been forced to surface because of technical problems. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Sunday Russia was deeply concerned about the possibility of the U.S. supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, warning that the war had reached a dramatic moment with escalation from all sides. – Reuters

Russian drone and missile strikes wounded at least 20 people in Kyiv, damaged residential buildings and caused blackouts across swaths of Ukraine early Friday, authorities said. A child also was killed in separate attacks in the southeast of the country. – Associated Press

Power was restored to over 800,000 residents in Kyiv on Saturday, a day after Russia launched major attacks on the Ukrainian power grid that caused blackouts across much of the country, and European leaders agreed to proceed toward using hundreds of billions of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s war effort. – Associated Press

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is pushing Ukraine and Russia to agree to local ceasefires so that external power can be restored to Ukraine’s huge nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, two diplomats familiar with the plan told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Ukraine’s parliament took a major step last week toward creating a dedicated military cyber branch, approving in its first reading a bill to establish a Cyber Force. – The Record

Korean Peninsula

At the Philadelphia shipyard in August, executives from its Korean parent company stood with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung for a ceremony announcing $5 billion in investments and orders for 12 new ships. – Wall Street Journal

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, armed with nuclear weapons and powerful friends, signaled his determination to stand up to Washington with an elaborate military parade Friday night that featured advancements in an arsenal capable of striking the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Tuesday that Russian technology possibly went into North Korea’s new intercontinental ballistic missile. – Reuters

South Korea’s industry minister said on Monday that the government had expressed concerns over Hyundai announcing multi-billion dollar U.S. investment plans at the same time as Seoul was involved in delicate trade negotiations with Washington. – Reuters

China says it is ready to develop its relationship with North Korea to strengthen strategic cooperation in international and regional affairs, North Korea’s state media KCNA reported. – Reuters

South Asia

Bangladesh’s army said it had taken into custody more than a dozen of its officers accused of serious crimes committed under Sheikh Hasina, whose 15-year rule ended last year amid widespread protests. – New York Times

Airports and banks were forced to shut down. Government employees idled aimlessly in the corridors of their ministries. Teenage girls, barred from attending school, lost much of their access to the outside world. – New York Times

Many of Nepal’s trappings of state went up in smoke in a single afternoon. On Sept. 9, coordinated arson attacks across the Himalayan nation destroyed hundreds of government buildings, from a storied palace and top courts to grand ministries and humble ward offices. – New York Times

The closure of border crossings for bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan entered a second day Monday after deadly weekend clashes between the countries spiked tensions and left hundreds of people stranded, officials said. – Associated Press

A clash between Pakistan authorities and thousands of protesters marching in support of Palestinians killed at least five people including a police officer and injured dozens of other officers on Monday, police and witnesses said. – Associated Press

Ten days after it was recaptured by Myanmar’s military government, the town of Kyaukme stands eerily silent. Schools have reopened but the town’s once-busy market is mostly empty. Vendors at some stalls closed them at the sight of visiting journalists, visibly nervous. – Associated Press

US President Donald Trump suggested he’s willing to step in to resolve days of deadly cross-border fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan, saying he is “good at solving wars.” – Bloomberg

Europe

After suspected Russian drones violated NATO airspace in recent weeks, closing airports and rattling citizens, European militaries and governments find themselves in a new era of conflict with an urgent need to bolster their defenses. – Wall Street Journal

For more than a decade, Poland has prepared for the worst-case scenario: becoming the front line in a war between Russia and the West. With an eye on growing Russian aggression in Europe, Warsaw’s military planners built out the country’s armed forces, turning it last year into the largest European military in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. – Wall Street Journal

For five long years, Belarusian opposition leader Sergei Tikhanovsky was held in total isolation. When he was abruptly freed this June in a “miracle” prisoner release made possible by President Donald Trump, he returned to a world and a home he no longer recognized — and one that didn’t recognize him. – Washington Post

President Emmanuel Macron of France urged French parties on Monday to calm a political crisis that has gripped the nation, and he rejected responsibility for the turbulence even as the country braced for the possibility that its newly appointed government might soon collapse. – New York Times

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary has long been hailed as a model by right-wing politicians in the United States and Europe, lauded for a string of election victories and his crackdowns on migrants and on activists pushing progressive social issues. – New York Times

Britain’s domestic spy agency MI5 issued a rare public warning to members of parliament on Monday that they are being targeted by spies from China, Russia and Iran in an attempt to undermine the country’s democracy. – Reuters

The German government will order 424 new wheeled armoured vehicles for almost 7 billion euros ($8.11 billion), according to finance ministry documents seen by Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Eighteen police officers and several people were injured after thousands of pro-Palestine protesters took to the streets of Bern on Saturday, police said on Sunday, adding the demonstration was unauthorised. – Reuters

The Dutch government said on Sunday it is intervening at Dutch chipmaker Nexperia, which manufactures computer chips for the car and consumer electronics industries, due to worries about the possible transfer of crucial technology to its Chinese parent company, Wingtech. – Reuters

NATO’s annual nuclear deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon, will be hosted by the Netherlands and start next week, with 71 aircraft from 14 nations taking part, officials from the Western military alliance said on Friday. – Reuters

Denmark will invest 27.4 billion crowns ($4.26 billion) to boost its military presence in the Arctic and plans to buy 16 new F-35 aircraft, it said on Friday, seeking to fend off U.S. criticism over Greenland’s defence capabilities. – Reuters

Germany’s president will make a state visit to the United Kingdom in early December, Buckingham Palace said Monday. – Associated Press

The European Union will Wednesday restart a civilian mission to monitor the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt in support of a US-brokered ceasefire deal, the bloc’s top diplomat said Monday. – Agence France Presse

Editorial: Worse, voters might start to notice who in Brussels and European capitals is to blame. So Mr. Trump’s tariffs in the U.S. and fretfulness about China are providing an excuse for European politicians. Meanwhile, consider this your latest reminder that although Mr. Trump is the noisiest threat to free trade, he’s far from the only one. Europe’s consumers and steel-using industries are the latest victims in what is in danger of becoming a Hobbesian global trade war of all against all. – Wall Street Journal

The Americas

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, a pro-democracy activist who has been in hiding for most of the past year, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her long crusade to fight dictatorship in the country. – Wall Street Journal

One of Cuba’s most prominent dissidents, José Daniel Ferrer, who has challenged his country’s Communist regime for years, was released from prison on Monday and immediately left the island for exile in the United States with his family. – New York Times

A Venezuelan human rights activist and a political consultant were shot and injured in Colombia’s capital on Monday in a hitman-style attack, Colombian officials said. – Reuters

Venezuela’s government said on Monday it will close its embassies in Norway and Australia and open new ones in Burkina Faso and Zimbabwe as past of a restructuring in its foreign service that seeks to shore up alliances in Africa. – Reuters

Cuba’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday said U.S. claims that its troops were fighting in Ukraine were unfounded, and released for the first time information on legal proceedings against Cubans for mercenary activity in the war in Eastern Europe. – Reuters

Crowds protesting a spike in fuel prices spilled into the streets of Ecuador’s capital of Quito Sunday, burning tires, blocking roads and facing off against police officers who responded with volleys of tear gas. – Associated Press

In one of his first acts as interim president of Peru, José Jerí on Saturday led a series of raids on prisons holding gang leaders nationwide, the presidency said, a day after the ouster of his deeply unpopular predecessor over her failure to curb rising crime. – Associated Press

Editorial: He explained that he would go into exile “with my dignity and honor intact, and not for long.” Cuba has a long record of killing dissidents. When public image makes that inconvenient, it settles for imprisonment. Those who refuse to be broken are eventually exiled. But they’re not silenced. We expect before long we’ll hear more from Mr. Ferrer and his struggle for a Cuba Libre. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: But that doesn’t explain Mr. Bessent. Treasury didn’t respond to our request for comment on dollarization. The only explanation that makes any sense is that such a large monetary change could be disruptive before the Oct. 26 elections. But the instability of the peso without dollarization is one reason the opposition may win. After the elections, Mr. Bessent will be wasting dollar assets on this bailout if he doesn’t press Mr. Milei to restore sound money with dollarization. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel Allott writes: Venezuela’s collapse dominates the headlines, but Cuba’s slow-motion breakdown could have far more profound consequences. A failed state just 90 miles from Florida would unleash new migration waves, invite rival powers into the region, and test America’s resolve. Havana’s flickering lights may be the hemisphere’s next alarm bell. – The Hill

United States

The United Nations Security Council convened a rare meeting focused on the United States on Friday to discuss the Trump administration’s recent military strikes on Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean, and the risks these actions posed to regional stability. – New York Times

Former National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan somewhat begrudgingly credited President Trump for successfully brokering a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas that had been elusive to former President Joe Biden. – New York Post

Former President Barack Obama described the current “politicization of the military” in Chicago and elsewhere as “a deliberate end run” around established law, arguing President Donald Trump has intentionally weakened the nation’s institutional guardrails. – Military.com

Walter Russell Mead writes: But the next steps will be harder. The Russian and Chinese governments, even when misguided, have a rationality and consistency that Hamas never did. Hamas dug tunnels. Russia and China build nuclear weapons. The skill, flexibility and courage that Mr. Trump demonstrated in his campaign against Hamas will stand him in good stead in the competition with Russia and China. But it remains to be seen whether this president and the country he leads are ready for the sterner tests to come. – Wall Street Journal

Bret Stephens writes: Then again, there are greater peace prizes than the Nobel — a prize never won by Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman or other world-historical figures who knew that the path to peace can’t always lie through peace alone. If the sacrifice Trump must make for putting an end to the horror of the Maduro regime is forgoing the prize for himself, he can take solace in the fact that Machado dedicated her prize to “the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support.” Now is the time to act. – New York Times

Emma Gargiulo writes: The answer is not necessarily to continue appeasing Elon Musk. Nor is it to abandon SpaceX. Rather, the US government must work to diversify its defense contracting beyond the hands of a single tech billionaire, reinstating traditional defense planning guardrails and reclaiming authority over our future in space. That will require building viable commercial alternatives capable of safeguarding American access to space, regardless of the prevailing political currents. The US government will thank itself later for making such a move now—before the next political disagreement arises. – National Interest

Defense

A Friday announcement by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about a new training arrangement with Qatar’s Air Force has sparked a backlash from President Trump’s supporters, prompting him to issue a clarification later in the day. – Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon announced on Friday it is establishing a new counter-narcotics joint task force overseeing operations in Latin America, a move aimed to strengthen already intensifying military operations that raised questions among legal experts. – Reuters

The US Army plans to shift to a Silicon Valley model as it works to speed up the development, buying and fielding of new equipment — and traditional defense prime contractors shouldn’t expect to continue business as usual. – Bloomberg

The U.S. Army has conducted a thorough assessment of supply chain risks to build the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft, the MV-75, and is aiming to deliver the prototype aircraft in fiscal 2027, the program executive officer for Army aviation, Brig. Gen. David Phillips, told Defense News in a recent interview. – Defense News 

The Army is finding ways to accelerate its new Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) as it begins to field it more widely to the force while sunsetting its 40-year-old tactical missile system, Maj. Gen. Frank Lozano, program executive officer for missiles and space, told Defense News. – Defense News 

U.S. aerospace giant Boeing and Italian firm Leonardo are uniting to offer a contractor-owned, contractor-operated solution for the U.S. Army as the service embarks on an effort to revamp its flight school, the companies announced Monday at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual conference in Washington. – Defense News

Kate Farmer writes: The workforce development company DVIRC has placed more than 9,000 young people in manufacturing jobs since 2021, says CEO Chris Scafario. Hope, hard work and American ingenuity kept chins high and eyes shining as the ceremonial Parade of Ships set sail across the Delaware River. A storm rescheduled most of the weekend’s festivities, so the calm morning felt like a stolen moment of peace. For the U.S. Navy, the calm may precede a different kind of storm. – Wall Street Journal