Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli forces have fired at three U.N. positions in the south of Lebanon over the past 24 hours, the United Nations said Thursday, dramatically escalating a nearly week-long standoff between international peacekeepers and advancing Israeli ground troops. – Washington Post

Two Al Jazeera cameramen were shot this week and are in critical condition, the network said Wednesday in a statement that accused the Israeli military of being “increasingly hostile toward media workers.” – Washington Post

United Nations investigators on Thursday accused Israel of engaging in “relentless and deliberate attacks” on health care facilities, medical workers and wounded civilians in the Gaza Strip and said the actions amounted to war crimes and extermination, a crime against humanity. – New York Times

Israel’s security cabinet convened on Thursday to discuss Israel’s response to an Iranian barrage of some 200 ballistic missiles that sent nearly the entire country into reinforced shelters last week, officials said. – New York Times

An Israeli airstrike on a school sheltering displaced people in central Gaza killed at least 28 people including women and children on Thursday, while three hospitals in the north were told to evacuate, putting patients’ lives at risk, medics said. – Reuters

Lebanon and other states called for more pressure on Israel to end its military campaigns in the Middle East at a meeting at the U.N. in Geneva on Thursday, saying that it was repeating its Gaza methods in Lebanon with catastrophic consequences. – Reuters

Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters. – Reuters

A United Nations inquiry said on Thursday it found that Israel carried out a concerted policy of destroying Gaza’s healthcare system in the Gaza war, actions amounting to both war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination. – Reuters

Israel’s military said its troops opened fire near a UNIFIL base in the area of Naqoura in southern Lebanon after instructing U.N. forces in the area to remain in protected spaces on Thursday morning. – Reuters

Humanitarian pauses in the war in the Gaza Strip have been agreed to allow a second round of polio vaccinations targeting 590,000 children under the age of 10 to start on Oct. 14, the head of the U.N. children’s agency UNICEF said on Thursday. – Reuters

France said it was waiting for explanations from Israel after U.N. peacekeeping troops were targeted in Lebanon on Thursday and that it was an obligation to ensure their safety. – Reuters

Israel posted a budget deficit of 8.8 billion shekels ($2.34 billion) in September, the Finance Ministry said on Thursday, citing high expenses to finance the wars with the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris said on Thursday that de-escalation was needed in the Middle East, a region on edge for months amid Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. – Reuters

A 27-year-old foreign worker from Thailand was killed following anti-tank fire launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon into northern Israel, hitting Kibbutz Yaraon in the Upper Galilee, MDA confirmed Friday morning. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces said Thursday that three reserve soldiers were killed amid fighting in the northern Gaza Strip, where the military launched a fresh ground offensive this week to prevent Hamas from reestablishing itself in the area. – Times of Israel

Details of the phone call between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, in which Jerusalem’s pending response to Iran’s attack last week was discussed, remain limited. – Fox News

Gil Hoffman writes: Palestinian journalist Abeer Ayyoub – who works for The Wall Street Journal and used her X account on Oct. 7 to spread terrorist propaganda and fake news – still regularly writes anti-Israel news articles for the newspaper that has a pro-Israel editorial line. CBS News did not even bother responding to revelations about its journalist in Gaza, Marwan al-Ghoul, who praised terrorists at an official Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine event and had contact with terrorists as a Gaza City municipal council member. None of these guys are “relatively pareve.” But they aren’t facing protests that will get them cited in a report by the ADL. – Jerusalem Post

Amotz Asa-el writes: Yes, in the past this column also opposed such confrontation (“Don’t bomb Iran,” November 4, 2011). That was before Iran inspired the October 7 massacre; engineered Lebanese, Iraqi, and Yemeni attacks on Israel’s cities; and unleashed its own missiles on the Jewish state, all the while backed by the anti-Western powers. This cannot go on, and it won’t. Sooner or later, one way or another, with or without the rest of the West, the anti-Western war on Israel will reach Tehran, much the way what was unleashed with the Nuremberg Laws ended up buried under the rubble of Berlin. – Jerusalem Post

Daniel Flesch writes: Therefore, to best support our ally and our national security interest, the administration must make clear to Iran that not only does the U.S. have the necessary capabilities deployed in the Middle East to inflict catastrophic damage on Iran’s regional assets, its domestic infrastructure and the regime itself, but it also has the required will to use force if necessary. Ultimately, the Iranian regime must pay a price for starting a regional war. Israel has demonstrated that Iran, while still dangerous, is in a weakened position. The moment to deliver a crippling blow is now. – Heritage Foundation

Russia & Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his “Victory Plan” to end the war with Russia were dealt a significant blow this week by an unexpected foe — Hurricane Milton. – Washington Post

The Ukrainian Parliament voted on Thursday to approve its biggest tax hike since Russia’s full-scale invasion began more than two years ago, resorting to a politically unpopular move to raise funds for its grueling war effort. – New York Times

A group of five nuclear weapons states will hold a meeting in New York in the next two weeks, Russian state media quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Thursday. – Reuters

The World Bank’s executive board on Thursday approved the creation of a financial intermediary fund (FIF) to support Ukraine, with contributions expected from the United States, Canada and Japan, three sources familiar with the decision said. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Thursday dismissed South Korean assertions that North Korea may have sent some military personnel to help Russia against Ukraine and might be weighing a bigger deployment. – Reuters

The Ukrainian military said on Thursday it had struck an ammunition depot overnight at an airfield in Russia’s Adygeya region in the North Caucasus, about 450 km (280 miles) from the frontline in eastern Ukraine. – Reuters

Parliament approved Ukraine’s first major wartime tax increases on Thursday to shore up its finances as war with Russia drags on with no end in sight. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his military is confronting a shortage of military equipment as he reinforced plans to hold a second summit to push for an end to Russia’s war next month. – Bloomberg

Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to discuss the situation in the Middle East and bilateral ties with his Iranian counterpart when they meet on Friday, Interfax reported. – Bloomberg

William B. Taylor writes: Most important, the alliance should invite Ukraine to begin membership negotiations immediately, so that when the conflict ends, Ukraine will be instantly ready to formally join. Europe will not be secure — and will not be whole and free — until Ukraine is in NATO. Ukraine will not agree to end the war without it. The United States is key and must show sustained, persistent and creative leadership. With confidence and strength, and a lot of hard work on all sides, Ukraine can become a member of NATO. For peace in Europe, it must. – New York Times

Peter Pomerantsev writes: During each of the major shocks that have struck the Kremlin since the war started, they have stepped back and let Moscow recalibrate, recover, and come back even stronger. This is what is happening now with the Kursk offensive. After a few weeks of panic, the Kremlin appears to be getting its propaganda strategy back in order—telling Russians to be calm and not await any speedy liberation of the Kursk region. As it doubles down on its assault in the Donbas, the Kremlin is glad to have the Kursk problem fade from view. Ukraine’s allies cannot afford to squander the next time the Russian propaganda system is thrown into confusion, when its seeming total control slips to reveal the incompetence and apathy underneath. – Foreign Affairs

Stavros Atlamazoglou writes: Although it is almost 2025, the Russian military relies mainly on infantry attacks with the support of artillery to achieve its goals on the battlefield. Although Moscow has plenty of mechanized units, their capabilities on the ground are limited. Attacking with the support of main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles is incorporating these weapon systems and their capabilities in your tactics to maximize opportunities on the battlefield and achieve better results. Overall, the Russian military has failed to embrace maneuver warfare and mechanized operations to the extent of a twenty-first century near-peer military. As a result, Russian commanders have been relying heavily on mass infantry attacks reminiscent of trench warfare and World War One. – National Interest

Lebanon

The Dahiya, a collection of neighborhoods on the southern outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, was in ruins, smoke still rising from the rubble of destroyed buildings. – New York Times

United Nations peacekeepers are determined to remain at their posts in southern Lebanon, the force’s spokesperson said on Thursday, despite Israeli attacks in recent days that have wounded U.N. personnel and prompted international alarm. – Reuters

Strengthening Lebanon’s army will be crucial to implementing a key United Nations Security Council resolution that aims to keep peace on the country’s border with Israel, the United States and France said on Thursday. – Reuters

A Belgian military plane has evacuated 111 people from Lebanon, Hadja Lahbib, the Belgian minister of Foreign Affairs said on Thursday. – Reuters 

More than 1,000 Americans and their dependents have fled war-hit Lebanon aboard U.S. chartered flights in the last week, arriving in Turkey for a temporary stay, the top U.S. diplomat in Istanbul said on Thursday. – Reuters

Israeli forces have acted illegally by shooting at positions used by U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said on Thursday, denouncing it as a possible war crime. – Reuters

UN officials warned Wednesday that Lebanon was staring down a “catastrophic” humanitarian crisis as the number of internally displaced people hit 600,000 and Israel presses its offensive against the Hezbollah terror group. – Agence France-Presse

Middle East & North Africa

A Liberia-flagged tanker was struck twice with missiles and drones in the Red Sea on Thursday morning, in an attack claimed by Iran-aligned Houthi militants. – Reuters

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan will give a “considerable” number of kamikaze drones of an unspecified type to Albania, the country’s Prime Minister Edi Rama said on Thursday. – Reuters

Turkey has imposed anti-dumping duties on some steel imports from China, Russia, India and Japan, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette on Friday, with the highest tariffs on Chinese imports. – Reuters

A bumper harvest and a hefty grain surplus in Iraq, typically one of the Middle East’s biggest wheat importers, has left the government with the prospect of a net loss of nearly half a billion dollars, according to Reuters calculations. – Reuters

China

China’s foreign ministry on Thursday announced it had imposed sanctions on three U.S. military-linked firms and 10 senior excecutives over U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan. – Reuters

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said he hopes Japan can meet China halfway and keep bilateral relations on the right track, state media reported, as the two countries try to ease escalating tensions in the region. – Reuters

Five months ago, ​​China greeted the inauguration of Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, with combat drills that encircled the island and the threat of more to come. – Wall Street Journal

China has no right to represent Taiwan, but the island is willing to work with Beijing to combat challenges like climate change, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said on Thursday, striking both a firm and a conciliatory tone, drawing anger from China. – Reuters

Karishma Vaswani writes: China’s army is going through a haphazard transformation, but it’s one we should pay more attention to. Beijing may not be building the best ships or submarines, but it’s building a lot of them. Its armed forces may have virtually no combat experience, fighting their last war in 1979 against the Vietnamese, but the direction of travel is clear — China is operating on a wartime footing. The rest of us should prepare accordingly. – Bloomberg

Brent Sadler writes: But as noted earlier, the biggest take-away from this story is the potential expansion of China’s nuclear submarine production capacity. Longer submerged endurance, extended high speed range, and capacity to operate advanced sensors makes nuclear powered submarines the apex naval predator. China knows this and is seeking to expand its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. – Heritage Foundation 

Asia

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr pressed Southeast Asian leaders and China at a regional summit on Thursday to urgently speed up negotiations on a code of conduct for the South China Sea, while accusing Beijing of harassment and intimidation. – Reuters

New Zealand’s Defence Minister on Thursday publicly criticised online trolling of the female captain of a naval vessel that sunk at the weekend, saying while the cause of the incident was unknown, it had nothing to do with the captain’s gender. – Reuters

Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday he would attend meetings of financial leaders from the Group of Seven and Group of 20 economic powers, as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank gatherings later this month. – Reuters

Pacific Island nations are at risk of becoming bases for global criminal gangs, a report by the United Nations drug authority said on Friday, as criminal activity surges across the isolated and economically vulnerable region. – Reuters

Indonesia’s immigration officers on the tourist island of Bali have arrested a Chinese suspect sought by Beijing for helping run over $14 billion investment scam to clients in China, officials said Thursday. – Associated Press

Editorial: This reality is gravely dangerous to Taiwan for another reason. It risks playing into the hands of a figure such as former President Donald Trump, who might decide that if Taiwan is insufficiently serious about defending itself, it is also insufficiently deserving of the thousands of U.S. soldiers dead that would be required to save it. This is no small consideration, being that U.S. war games over Taiwan often see the PLA triumph even in the face of the U.S. military’s fully deployed might. Again, Taiwan deserves the happy birthday celebrations it has earned through its people’s perseverance and skill. However, it also deserves a louder wake-up call from the U.S. – Washington Examiner

Africa

Votes were being counted by Mozambique’s national election authorities on Thursday as civil society monitors were compiling a parallel tally to try to detect possible signs of fraud. – Reuters

Rights activists and local responders said scores of civilians had been killed at sites across Sudan in the past week as the army escalates air strikes nearly 18 months into its war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. – Reuters

The presidents of Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia agreed on Thursday to boost cooperation for the Somali army to confront “terrorism” and protect its land and sea borders, a joint statement said, leaving Ethiopia further isolated in the region. – Reuters

Spain’s Interior Minister on Thursday asked the European border agency Frontex to seek permission from African nations to patrol their waters in a bid to “save lives” on the perilous irregular migration route from the continent to the nearby Canary Islands archipelago. – Reuters

Palestinian and Dutch organisations on Thursday filed a legal complaint against the state of the Netherlands over its alleged failure to prevent Israel from committing possible genocide in Gaza and other violations of international law. – Reuters

Samuel Bashfield writes: As treaty talks commence, various groups are vocalizing opposition to a deal. Some Conservative members of parliament are railing against the announcement and some Chagossian groups are likewise dismayed. These efforts to obstruct a deal should be watched closely as treaty talks commence. Amid this resistance, it’s now up to Mauritius and the United Kingdom to conclude a treaty that simultaneously safeguards the Anglo-American joint military facility on Diego Garcia, finalizes Mauritius’ decolonization process in accordance with international law, and allows the forcibly displaced Chagossians to resettle. – War on the Rocks

North America

Mexican senators on Thursday passed regulations stipulating how a judicial overhaul that reforms the country’s constitution will be implemented to popularly elect judges. – Reuters

Armed men launched fresh attacks on the Haitian town of Arcahaie, local media reported on Wednesday, as families mourned the growing list of victims of a massacre days earlier in an agricultural town some 60 km (37 miles) to the north. – Reuters

A Canadian mini budget later this year might contain no spending measures, an unusual move that would deprive the opposition of another chance to topple Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

Nordic utility Fortum (FORTUM.HE), faces cyberattacks on a daily basis in Finland and Sweden and has sometimes spotted drones and suspicious individuals near its sites, its CEO told Reuters, adding the company had asked the authorities to investigate. – Reuters

An abbreviated rundown of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s artificial intelligence work goes something like this: a dozen use cases, a pair of completed AI security tabletop exercises and a robust roadmap for how the technology should be used. – CyberScoop

The number of malicious packages found in the open-source ecosystem has dramatically grown in the past year, according to a new report from Sonatype. – CyberScoop

After years of bombarding Ukrainian targets with wiper malware and other cyberattacks aimed at wreaking havoc, a top U.S. intelligence official said there are signs Russia is changing its tactics with a focus on cyberespionage. – The Record

OpenAI said it has disrupted more than 20 operations this year by nation-states and affiliates to abuse its technology and use it for a range of malicious activity. – The Record

Russian antivirus company Dr.Web denied on Wednesday that its customer data was leaked during a cyberattack earlier in September. – The Record