Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s government approved an agreement brokered by the Trump administration to free the remaining hostages held by Hamas and establish a cease-fire in Gaza, sealing a diplomatic breakthrough after months of failed talks. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s announcement that he ended the two-year war in Gaza rested on an unorthodox strategy of declaring victory first and forcing others to fill in the details to make it a reality. – Wall Street Journal

The Palestinian Authority expects a significant role in post-war Gaza, even though President Donald Trump’s plan sidelines it for now, and is banking on Arab support to secure its position despite Israeli objections, Palestinian officials say. – Reuters

Exiled Gaza chief Khalil Al-Hayya said on Thursday the group has received guarantees from the United States, Arab mediators, and Turkey that the war in Gaza has permanently ended. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said on Thursday the Gaza hostages should be released on Monday or Tuesday and that he hopes to attend a signing ceremony in Egypt and address the Israeli Knesset. – Reuters

The United States’ closest European and Arab partners met in Paris on Thursday to work out how to shape Gaza’s post-war future, hours after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and prisoner-hostage swap proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Palestinians and the families of Israeli hostages broke into wild celebrations on Thursday after news of a pact between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and return home all the Israeli hostages, both living and dead. – Reuters

With the Gaza war entering its third year, U.S. President Donald Trump has achieved something no other world leader has been able to do: strong-arm Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into the first step of a broader peace deal while persuading other Middle Eastern countries to pressure Hamas. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday that Germany would provide 29 million euros ($34 million) in immediate humanitarian aid for Gaza, following Israel’s ratification of a ceasefire with Palestinian militant group Hamas. – Reuters

The United Nations said Thursday that 170,000 metric tons of food, medicine and other humanitarian aid is ready to enter Gaza and that it is seeking a green light from Israel to massively increase help for more than 2 million Palestinians following a deal to pause the war. – Associated Press

A U.S. peace plan has propelled former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to the forefront of efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. While his legacy in the Middle East is controversial, especially given his role in taking the U.K. to war as part of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, there is one place he is revered as a hero: Kosovo. – Associated Press

More than 1,400 evangelical Christians gathered this week in Jerusalem to show their support for Israel on the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, a joyous festival marking the fall harvest and commemorating the journey of the Jews in the Exodus. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump said he’ll travel to Israel to be on hand for the release of hostages under the terms of a deal to end the war with Hamas, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet met late Thursday to sign off on the agreement. – Bloomberg

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doubled down on his belief that President Trump should receive the Nobel Peace Prize, citing Trump’s 20-point peace plan to end the two-year war in Gaza. – The Hill

To expedite the hostage release process, the IDF will withdraw within the next 24 hours to the updated “yellow line,” the first designated pullback zone — including from Khan Younis, not just Gaza City. – Ynet News

Ahead of the return of 20 Israeli hostages after more than two years in Hamas captivity, the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday detailed the financial and rehabilitation package the state will provide to each survivor. – Ynet News

The war against Hamas is not over yet, even as Israel prepares to withdraw to roughly 53% of Gaza’s territory and cease major fighting, according to Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi. – Ynet News

Editorial: Mr. Trump’s approach to the Middle East has been the opposite of Obama-Biden’s—and the opposite of his own in Ukraine. Do you pressure the ally, willing and able to fight, or the enemy? If Mr. Trump now reverses his strategy on Russia, next year even the Nobel committee might find it impossible to deny him the peace prize. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Trump reportedly agreed that he will prevent Israel from bombing Gaza after the hostages are turned over. The Israelis will still have the freedom of action to go after individual terrorists, but the widespread shelling would end. “We got a guarantee, and that is enough,” senior Hamas leader Osama Hamdan said on Al Araby television. There is now a real opening for a regional peace that could endure between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Even if that doesn’t come to pass, there’s nothing wrong with taking a moment to appreciate progress in one of the world’s toughest neighborhoods. – Washington Post

David Ignatius writes: Drawing a strategic balance sheet at the end of a war like this is hard, when the human cost is so high. Israel’s international standing has been tarnished, but its deadliest enemies — Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran — have been ravaged. The biggest winners might be the Arab gulf states, led by tiny Qatar, which have found a champion in the White House unafraid to give orders to Israel. – Washington Post

Marc Champion writes: Netanyahu’s record is more mixed, as he has had genuine military success against Israel’s enemies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. But were he to depart today, he would leave his country polarized, dependent on permanent conflict for its security, diplomatically isolated and in the dock on charges of genocide. There is a long road back to co-existence between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors, let alone peace. But a ceasefire will save lives and could over time weaken the conflict’s extremist accelerants on both sides. That’s more than enough to celebrate. – Bloomberg

Russia and Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that Russia was to blame for downing an Azerbaijani passenger jet last year in an incident that killed dozens of people and chipped away at Moscow’s influence over the former Soviet republic. – Wall Street Journal

Russia has intensified its efforts to plunge millions of Ukrainians into darkness and cold ahead of winter, forcing Kyiv to scramble to import additional natural gas and procure enough air defenses to at least soften the Kremlin’s annual energy-focused blitzkrieg. – Washington Post 

Russian airstrikes injured at least nine people, damaged residential buildings and caused blackouts across parts of the Ukrainian capital early Friday, authorities said. – Washington Post

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday urged the leaders of five Central Asian states to boost their trade with Russia, as Moscow seeks to build back its influence in a region that is also being courted by China. – Reuters

The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said on Thursday the process had started to restore external power to the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine, cut off from the electricity grid for more than two weeks. – Reuters

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that efforts by Russia and the United States to end the conflict in Ukraine were still alive, state news agency TASS reported, appearing to contradict remarks from a top Russian diplomat a day earlier. – Reuters

Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities may have reduced gasoline supplies in Russia by up to a fifth, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, as both sides step up attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. – Reuters

The US could deliver spare military capability to Ukraine to help the war-battered nation bolster its battlefield position against Russia and bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, a senior American diplomat said. – Bloomberg

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a delegation of top Ukrainian officials will visit the US early next week to discuss Russian frozen assets, air defense and sanctions against Moscow as prospects for peace fade. – Bloomberg

Satellite imagery shows recent activity by Russia’s submarine fleet in the country’s Far East region, where Moscow maintains a strong military presence. – Newsweek

Michael Bohnert writes: The consequences for Russia will grow, and Mr. Putin could be forced to choose: war-materials production or the commerce demands of Russia’s oligarchs. Without reliable resupplies, the Russian military will become less mobile and create opportunities for incremental Ukrainian victories. The Russian bear is slowly being starved. – Wall Street Journal

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth write: What Russia cannot win, it will try to take. Citizens in the Black Sea Region have seen this Soviet-era movie before. They reject further Russian subjugation and openly embrace inclusion into the EU. That’s not exactly what Putin envisioned as the outcome of his so-called “special military operation.” Yet again, another Russian Iron Curtain rusts. – The Hill

Peter Suciu writes: That may result in the Kremlin continuing to refurbish tanks that other countries would have sent to the scrapyard. Repairing an old tank, even one in poor condition, can be easier and less time-consuming than building a new one. That may not be as economical, however—which may be the final consideration for why even those 4,000 tanks in poor condition haven’t been sent to the front lines, at least not yet. However, given the state of Russia’s military, it may be a matter of when, not if, even the oldest of the tanks rolls back into action. If there is any way of making them run, chances are good that they are already being considered for action. – National Interest

Keith Johnson writes: Ukraine’s offensive against Russian refineries may not have hit entirely home, in the sense of bringing the regime to its knees. But when it comes to refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, or aviation fuel, the message is at the margins. In 1940, during the Battle of Britain, Spitfire pilots had a secret weapon: U.S.-made, high-octane aviation fuel that allowed them to defeat the Luftwaffe. It wasn’t a refinery breakthrough as much as a chemistry breakthrough, but little things can make a big difference when countries are at war. Ukraine is nibbling away at those margins. – Foreign Policy

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are advancing on an agreement that would allow U.S. chip companies to export semiconductors to Saudi Arabia and a deal could be finalized soon, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

A Greek court has ruled that 12 Turks arrested in northern Greece on accusations of participating in an international criminal group smuggling weapons into the country should be detained pending trial, legal sources said on Thursday. – Reuters

Morocco’s elusive King Mohammed VI inaugurates parliament Friday in a speech with far higher stakes than in recent years, as anti-government protests sweep the nation’s cities, questioning the government’s spending priorities. – Associated Press

An inaugural Russia-Arab summit due to be held next week is to be postponed as a deal based on US President Donald Trump’s proposal for Gaza begins to be implemented, according to the Kremlin. – Bloomberg

Lebanon has arrested 32 people in recent months on suspicion of providing Israel with information on Hezbollah that facilitated strikes on the Iran-backed terrorist group, a judicial official told AFP on Thursday. – Agence France Presse

Robert Satloff writes: For nearly 20 years, American presidents of both parties have said they wanted to pivot away from the Middle East, but they continually find themselves entangled in the region’s often byzantine conflicts and politics. Americans deserve to know why the “America First” president has decided that American interests are intimately bound up in the success of this peace plan. Our domestic divisions notwithstanding, fair-minded people on both sides of the aisle will be rooting for Trump’s success in this peace deal. For now, sure, the president should enjoy the accolades and celebrate the coming release of Hamas’ hostages. The morning after will come soon enough. – Washington Institute

Michael Rubin writes: Trump may not yet be deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts toward peace. Still, he could become a real contender if he not only achieves a lasting peace between Israel and Gaza, but also persuades Erdoğan to apply the same construct that the Turkish leader already endorses to Cyprus and Kurdistan. At the very least, Trump’s Gaza deal provides a roadmap for the United Nations to resolve the Cyprus conflict this year, and a new basis upon which to begin negotiating for Kurdish freedom. – National Security Journal

China

China’s newest restrictions on rare-earth materials would mark a nearly unprecedented export control that stands to disrupt the global economy, giving Beijing more leverage in trade negotiations and ratcheting up pressure on the Trump administration to respond. – Wall Street Journal

China’s commerce ministry added 14 foreign organisations to its “unreliable entity list”, it said in a statement on Thursday, restricting their ability to carry out commercial activities within the world’s second-largest economy. – Reuters

The Trump administration on Thursday proposed banning Chinese airlines from flying over Russia on routes to and from the United States, saying the reduced flight time this practice enables puts American carriers at a disadvantage – Reuters

Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are maneuvering for leverage ahead of their upcoming meeting and the expiration of a US-China trade truce, even at the risk of escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. – Bloomberg

China said the collapse of an espionage trial that had been brought by the UK’s chief prosecutor shows that the case was without merit all along — comments that come as the two nations take early steps to repair ties. – Bloomberg

Selina Xu and Helen Zhang write: Much ink has been spilled about how the U.S. can reindustrialize. When it comes to robotics, the U.S. needs to invest in infrastructure to power the industries of the future — from building a better electrical grid to joint ventures with allies that can onshore manufacturing expertise for critical robotics components. America also needs to double down on its strengths in ways that could prove difficult in this turbulent political moment: university-driven fundamental research, immigration policies that welcome the best talent from abroad, and a vibrant entrepreneurship ecosystem that’s not mired in regulatory hurdles. The robot race isn’t over. But unless the United States ups its game, it seems clear that this is a race China will dominate. – Washington Post 

Joshua Henderson and Evan Sankey write: A successful revision would reassure China that its interests in Taiwan are not under threat and America that a Chinese invasion is not on the horizon. That trade would be an excellent basis for a more stable regional order. “One China” as it exists today is past its shelf life, but a renegotiation of terms could save it. – The Hill

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Victoria Cheng, William Goodhind, and ISIS Team write: China’s ongoing secrecy appears excessive if the reactor is being decommissioned.  Changes visible at the site over the last decade, but as recent as 2024, show that certain other facilities at the 821 Plant were razed and nuclear waste was being processed. […] In fact, there are multiple indications that the reactor may have been operating during the last decade, or that it was undergoing preparations for upcoming reactor operation and generation of electricity, despite the earlier decision in the 1980s not to do so. – Institute of Science and International Security

Maximilian K. Bremer and Kelly A. Grieco write: Deterrence depends on not just the number of bombers, submarines, and destroyers but also the ability to keep forces supplied—even when conventional logistics breaks down. As on the beaches of Normandy in 1944, logistics itself can be a decisive weapon in battle. Failing to invest in these capabilities signals unpreparedness or dangerous overconfidence that there will be time to adapt once war begins. Reliable and effective logistics is crucial in any war—and especially so when that war is half a world away. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Taiwan will build a new multi-layered air defence system called “T-Dome” to defend itself against enemy threats and increase defence spending, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday, calling on China to renounce the use of force to seize the island. – Reuters

A strong earthquake of magnitude 7.4 struck offshore in the southern Philippines on Friday, its seismology agency said, with tsunami warnings issued in several countries and people in nearby coastal areas urged to move inland or to higher ground. – Reuters

Thailand is negotiating trade rules with the United States covering rules of origins and regional value content, and expects to finalise them by the end of the year, Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said on Thursday. – Reuters

Indonesia has denied visas to Israeli gymnasts, costing them a spot in a world championship in Jakarta this month, a sports official in the Southeast Asian nation said on Friday, amid outcry over Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. – Reuters

Taiwan and India were the main destinations for Russian seaborne naphtha exports in August, as cheaper barrels attracted buyers, data from market sources and LSEG showed. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military government on Thursday acknowledged attacking a religious festival held at a school in central Myanmar, which witnesses said killed about two dozen people, including children, with bombs dropped by motorized paragliders. – Associated Press

Japan’s Sanae Takaichi will meet her ruling coalition counterpart on Friday afternoon, amid fears of a possible rupturing of the 26-year partnership that has been a bedrock for political stability in the nation. – Bloomberg

Africa

The fallout from President Donald Trump’s decision to cut U.S. foreign assistance to Africa happened almost instantly: “Stop-work” orders froze lifesaving health programs and medical research projects while critical supplements, emergency food, contraceptives and HIV-prevention medications sat wasting away in warehouses and distribution centers. – Washington Post 

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has removed the country’s military chief and reinstated his predecessor whom Kiir had sacked three months earlier, state-run television announced. – Reuters

New York-based Flagship Gold Corp has signed a partnership agreement with Mali’s state-owned miner to restart production at the Morila gold mine, the first U.S. investment under the military-led nation’s new mining code, opens new tab, Mali’s government said. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi used a speech to an investment forum in Brussels on Thursday to publicly appeal to his Rwandan counterpart to help end an insurgency by M23 rebels, though Kigali accused him posturing. – Reuters

South African authorities said they are investigating how electronic equipment made in the country ended up in Russian drones used to attack Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Paul Biya, the world’s oldest president, wants to rule Cameroon at least until he’s 99. That has investors worried about strife in the African nation prone to conflict. – Bloomberg

Shuimo Trust Dohyee writes: Everything points to another victory for Mr. Biya. But at 92, the end cannot be that far away. Beneath the surface, Cameroonians are beginning to ask a different question: not who will win, but what will happen after Mr. Biya is gone. The answer will define the nation more than this election ever will. – New York Times

North America

Mexico’s Congress will hold off approving proposed tariff hikes on nearly 1,500 products from China and other Asian countries while Mexico holds talks with those countries and considers changes to the proposal, President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday. – Reuters

Canada’s federal statistics agency said on Thursday it might have to postpone releasing September international trade data next month if the U.S. government shutdown drags on. – Reuters

Heavy gunfire erupted in downtown Port-au-Prince on Thursday after Haiti’s leaders made the rare and defiant decision to meet at the National Palace to symbolize the retaking of an area long controlled by powerful gangs. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

Germany’s PSI Software is close to being taken over, with several financial investors circling the maker of software for energy networks, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. One of the sources said PSI, which is recovering from a cyberattack last year, is seeking funding for next-generation product development. – Reuters

Google said on Thursday that there were likely to be more than 100 companies affected by an ambitious hacking campaign that targeted Oracle’s (ORCL.N), opens new tab suite of business products, an early assessment that could portend wide-ranging damage. – Reuters

China has ramped up enforcement of its chip import restrictions, aiming to reduce domestic technology companies’ dependence on U.S. products such as Nvidia’s (NVDA.O), opens new tab artificial intelligence processors, the Financial Times reported on Friday. – Reuters

A top Senate Democrat introduced legislation Thursday to extend and rename an expired information-sharing law, and make it retroactive to cover the lapse that began Oct. 1. – CyberScoop

Clop, the notorious ransomware group, began targeting Oracle E-Business Suite customers three months ago and started exploiting a zero-day affecting the enterprise platform to steal massive amounts of data from victims as early as Aug. 9, Google Threat Intelligence Group and Mandiant said in a report Thursday. – CyberScoop