Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon, sharply escalating its offensive against the militant group Hezbollah days after killing its top leader in an airstrike in Beirut and heightening concerns of a wider war. – Wall Street Journal

Palestinian militant group Hamas’s top leader in Lebanon—killed in an Israeli airstrike Monday—also was a high-ranking employee of the main United Nations relief agency serving Palestinians, a revelation likely to heighten suspicions about Hamas’s influence in the aid organization. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. President Joe Biden called for a ceasefire in Lebanon on Monday but a U.S. official said Israeli troop deployments suggested a ground incursion against Hezbollah militants could be imminent. – Reuters

For Israel, the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been a moment to savour, uplifting spirits for a country still grappling with the trauma of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and almost a year of war, and providing a boost to once-embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Reuters

Israeli airstrikes pounded areas across the Gaza Strip on Monday killing 12, including a journalist and her family, medics said, although the intensity of the ground offensive has subsided as Israel steps up its fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Iranians on Monday that there was nowhere in the Middle East beyond Israel’s reach, three days after Israel’s military killed the leader of Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. – Reuters

Israel said intense fighting erupted with Hezbollah in south Lebanon after its paratroops and commandos launched raids there, ahead of a widely expected ground incursion and after devastating airstrikes against Hezbollah’s leadership. – Reuters

The chief of the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) on Monday denied knowing that its employee Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin was a Hamas commander in Lebanon and called on states to push back against Israeli attacks on the agency. – Reuters

Ministers in Israel’s Political-Security Cabinet in the early hours of Tuesday morning local time agreed on an operational strategy for Israel’s “limited” invasion into Lebanon, but tensions were high after officials were reportedly frustrated that the news of the operation had been leaked hours before they even met. – Fox News

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told Iranians that regime change was looming. – Politico

The IDF’s invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi, who also led the commando unit, the Egoz special forces unit, the paratroopers, and Brigade 7 of the Tank Corp. – Jerusalem Post

After the IDF announced in the early hours of Tuesday morning that it had begun conducting a limited ground operation in Lebanon, international figures were divided in calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with many expressing support for the operations – Jerusalem Post

The body of terrorist Walid Daqqah will not be returned until the hostages detained in Hamas captivity are freed, Israel’s High Court of Justice ruled on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Police apprehended an Arab illegal infiltrator on Monday in Jerusalem after he attempted to evade arrest by participating in a demonstration against haredi military conscription. – Arutz Sheva

Tunku Varadarajan writes: “The elimination of Nasrallah, and every action that weakens the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis, opens more opportunities for normalization with moderate forces in the region,” including Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority. “This is a necessary first step toward a future solution, and the Israeli government must translate this historic military achievement into a new regional and bilateral initiative.” Mr. Kariv is an idealist, no doubt. But he insists that Israel must have a “destination.” If the country “doesn’t know where it’s going, we won’t make any progress whatsoever.” – Wall Street Journal

Hal Brands writes: Hezbollah and Iran are down but not out; tens of thousands of residents of northern Israel are still displaced from their homes. And if the unfolding Israeli ground campaign in Lebanon becomes an ugly, draining slugfest — rather than a series of deep, punishing raids — Israel’s diplomatic isolation could deepen and the tide of the larger regional contest could shift again. But right now, Israel has its enemies back on their heels, and it can address its manifold security problems from a position of greater strength. That’s good news in a region where avowedly genocidal forces of radicalism recently seemed to be surging, and in a world where the geopolitical malefactors have, too often of late, had the momentum. – Bloomberg

Eli Lake writes: At the same time, blaming Bibi for the deaths of the six hostages does the work of the hostage takers. Sinwar must be delighted that so many Israelis and Jews hold the prime minister responsible for his henchmen’s murders. Without even participating in the cease-fire talks, the leader of Hamas has a serious hand to play in this game. And as of this writing in early September, at least, it appears that the only person willing to deny this monster a victory is the man so many have blamed for the monster’s crimes. – Commentary

Michael Oren writes: This is Israel’s Midway moment. In Lebanon, Israel can have its Gettysburg and its Yorktown. The alternatives are the examples of Iraq and Afghanistan, America’s most recent wars that ended inconclusively with ignominious withdrawals. Israel, fighting an existential war on our own borders, must not go that route. Rather, by resisting pressure for a ceasefire that leaves Hezbollah unbowed, Israel can fully restore our deterrence power and regain our regional preeminence. The pain and the trauma of October 7 will surely endure, but the image of an Israel both willing and able to defend itself must never again be questioned. – Times of Israel

Amb. (ret.) Yoram Ettinger writes: In view of the aforementioned data, the annual “foreign aid” extended to Israel (a credit to purchase only US military systems) does not constitute “foreign aid.” Rather, it has been an annual US investment in an immensely-grateful Israel, yielding to the US an annual Return-on-Investment (R-o-I) of a few hundred percent. It has been a most productive and secure US investment, underlying the mutually-beneficial, two-way-street of US-Israel cooperation in the face of mutual threats, such as Islamic terrorism. – Arutz Sheva

Uri Paz writes: The hi-tech sector, coupled with Israel’s defense industry, remains highly attractive for both civilian and military investment. Global investors recognize this edge, and we are likely to see increased foreign interest in these sectors in the near future. This resilience is not just about surviving the war, it’s about thriving during the conflict and afterward. The Israeli economy is fundamentally different from that of other Baa1-rated nations, and investors recognize this. While Moody’s rating is a reflection of current uncertainties, it fails to fully account for the unique qualities that make Israel’s economy so robust. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: That’s what this is: an extensive, multi-front defensive war. People seem confused by the magnitude of Israel’s successes, as if that means the IDF brass are playing a video game. Israel’s impressiveness does not change any of the underlying facts of the conflict. It does, however, suggest that maybe invading armies ought to think twice. – Commentary Magazine

Russia & Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelensky returned to Ukraine this weekend from a high-stakes diplomatic trip to the United States with limited new aid for his armed forces and mounting challenges on the battlefield. – New York Times

The Russian government intends to increase its defense expenditures by about a quarter next year, according to a draft state budget released on Monday, signaling the Kremlin’s continued determination to allocate vast resources to the war in Ukraine. – New York Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the conscription of 133,000 new servicemen in Russia’s autumn draft that starts Oct. 1 and goes until the end of the year, according to a Kremlin decree published on Monday. – Reuters

Stephen James Hubbard, a 72-year-old U.S. citizen, pleaded guilty in a Moscow court on Monday to charges of serving as a mercenary against Russia in the Ukraine war, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. – Reuters

A Russian court on Monday sentenced a man convicted over a car bombing that seriously wounded nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin to life in prison. – Associated Press

Russia is open to negotiations for the withdrawal of troops from occupied Georgia, according to statements from a top Russian diplomat. – Newsweek

Lebanon

In Lebanon, the increased danger has sent hundreds of thousands of residents fleeing north toward Beirut, authorities here say. On Friday, massive strikes in the capital’s dense southern suburbs that killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, pushed residents into the city center, where many have sought shelter on the street or in empty buildings.. – Wall Street Journal

The overnight strike in the Cola neighborhood in Beirut appeared to have been the first known Israeli strike in the city center since 2006. Israel has struck the densely populated Dahiya area to the south many times recently, with most of those strikes coming after a massive bombing attack on Friday that killed the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah there. – New York Times

An Israeli strike in Lebanon early on Tuesday targeted Mounir Maqdah, commander of the Lebanese branch of the Palestinian Fatah movement’s military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, according to two Palestinian security officials. – Reuters

At least two Israeli strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs late on Monday, a security source said, with Reuters reporters seeing two flashes of light and hearing loud blasts coming from the neighbourhood. – Reuters

The Lebanese government is ready to fully implement a UN resolution that had aimed to end Hezbollah’s armed presence south of the Litani River as part of an agreement to stop war with Israel, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said. – Reuters

Some of the hundreds of Lebanese citizens who arrived in Istanbul on Monday after fleeing Israeli airstrikes in the homeland said they were shaken but hoped to return home soon. – Reuters

Jason D. Greenblatt writes: The people of Lebanon and their allies are signaling that they are ready to capitalize on Hezbollah’s weakness. We also know that freedom movements cascade once they begin. If Lebanon can free itself from Iran’s clutches, perhaps Yemen may liberate itself from the Houthis, and Iran from its fanatical regime. It may even blaze a trail for an end to the horrific ongoing violence in Syria, a country and a tragedy that few even speak about these days. – Newsweek

Korean Peninsula

A Seoul court sentenced a senior police officer to​ three years in prison on Monday, ​convicting him of contributing through negligence to a Halloween crowd crush that killed nearly 160 people in 2022 in one of South Korea’s worst peacetime disasters. – New York Times

North Korea appeared on Monday to dismiss the possibility of a return to the personal diplomacy its leader Kim Jong Un had with former President Donald Trump, no matter who wins the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election. – Reuters

North Korea’s defence ministry denounced the United States’ deployment of nuclear strategic assets in South Korea, state media KCNA reported on Tuesday, as Seoul was gearing up for a rare military parade marking Armed Forces Day. – Reuters

South Korea unveiled its most powerful ballistic missile and other weapons targeting North Korea during a massive Armed Forces Day ceremony Tuesday, as the South’s president warned the North’s regime would collapse if it attempts to use nuclear weapons. – Associated Press

South Asia

Sagging global demand from the U.S. and China, the top markets for luxury goods, and fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine, are altering the flow of the multibillion-dollar industry and reshaping life in India’s so-called Diamond City. – Wall Street Journal

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that he had spoken to his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu about recent developments in West Asia and highlighted the need for de-escalation. – Reuters

Voting in the final phase of the election to choose a local government in Indian-controlled Kashmir began Tuesday in the first such vote since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government stripped the disputed region of its special status five years ago. – Associated Press

A Pakistani court denied on Monday a bail application by imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife in a graft case, their lawyer said. It’s another blow to the popular opposition leader, who has been in prison for more than a year after being convicted on multiple charges. – Associated Press

Europe

Italy and Switzerland are set to redraw part of the mountainous border separating the two countries due to melting glaciers in the Alps. – Washington Post

The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and over 20 other people went on trial in Paris on Monday on charges that they embezzled funds from the European Parliament between 2004 and 2016. – New York Times

Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte takes over as NATO boss on Tuesday, charged with holding the Western military alliance together with the war in Ukraine at a critical moment and a pivotal U.S. presidential election approaching. – Reuters

British foreign minister David Lammy repeated calls for an immediate ceasefire amid reports of a potential escalation in the Israel-Lebanon conflict, after discussing the matter with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken over the phone on Monday. – Reuters

The International Criminal Court chief prosecutor said on Monday he would launch a preliminary inquiry against Belarus over alleged crimes against humanity under the rule of authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. – Reuters

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) must on Monday seek to clear a path to power after its first ever parliamentary election victory left the anti-establishment outfit needing a partner to form a governing coalition. – Reuters

NATO’s next boss, Mark Rutte, will need all the coalition-building skills he honed as Dutch prime minister to hold the Western alliance together amid war in Ukraine, fears over Moscow’s next move and political uncertainty in Washington. – Reuters

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya backed Lithuania’s request to the International Criminal Court on Monday to investigate Belarus over forcible deportations and other alleged crimes against its own people. – Reuters

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will hold informal talks with Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders in New York in October “to have an exchange on the way forward on the Cyprus issue,” U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday. – Reuters

French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot again urged Israel on Monday not to undertake any ground invasion of Lebanon, adding France will step up its support for the Lebanese army. – Reuters

Germany has evacuated non-essential staff, families of embassy workers and German nationals who are medically vulnerable out of Lebanon and will support others trying to leave, a joint statement by the foreign and defence ministries said on Monday. – Reuters

Britain on Monday said that all sides should seek de-escalation and a ceasefire after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, reiterating that the region needs to pull back from the brink. – Reuters

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will make his first public statements since he was released from prison when he addresses the Council of Europe on Tuesday. – Associated Press

Albanian opposition lawmakers violently disrupted a Parliament session Monday to protest the imprisonment of a fellow legislator for alleged slander. – Associated Press

Individuals who posted “From the River to the Sea” on social media will be denied German citizenship, according to stipulations in the new citizenship law, as cited by German channel NDR (North German Radio and Television) and the Federal Ministry of the Interior this week. – Jerusalem Post

The Americas

Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in Tuesday as North America’s first female president, taking office with the largest mandate since Mexico became a democracy a quarter-century ago. – Washington Post

The U.N. Security Council unanimously agreed on Monday to authorize for another year an international security force helping fight armed gangs in Haiti, but a U.S. push for a plan to transform it into a U.N. peacekeeping mission was dropped from the resolution because of opposition by Russia and China. – Reuters

Brazilian and Mexican authorities said on Monday they see the need to revise and expand their current trade agreements, in a push to strengthen the ties between the two largest economies in Latin America. – Reuters

A gang-fueled social and political crisis in Haiti has swollen the ranks of those suffering severe hunger in recent months, with an estimated 5.4 million Haitians having run out of food and gone a day or more without eating. – Reuters

Argentine prosecutors have concluded that there are grounds for launching a criminal investigation into the highest authorities of Opus Dei in South America between 1983 and 2015 for the crimes of human trafficking and labor exploitation against at least 44 women recruited by the religious order to perform domestic tasks in their homes. – Associated Press

Local police in the cartel-dominated city of Culiacan, Mexico have been pulled off the streets after the army seized their guns, officials announced Monday. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a landmark bill aimed at establishing first-in-the-nation safety measures for large artificial intelligence models Sunday. – Associated Press

With ransomware gangs proving capable of quickly reconstituting after government takedown operations, an international alliance wants to ramp up those offensive measures even more. – Cyber scoop

The world’s oldest news agency said hackers launched an attack on its IT systems Friday. Agence France-Presse, known by most as AFP, said the attack affected “part of its delivery service to clients.”  – The Record