Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel said it intends to retain security control of Gaza for an indefinite period once its war with Hamas ends, prompting U.S. officials to stress their opposition to a reoccupation of the enclave. – Wall Street Journal

In Gaza, bombed and besieged for the past month, clean water is in critically short supply. Water production in the coastal enclave has collapsed to around 5% of pre-war levels, according to the United Nations. The little water that Gaza has is making people sick, residents, the U.N. and healthcare workers say. – Wall Street Journal

Who is going to run Gaza when this terrible war is over? After a month of fighting, no one can provide a clear answer. – Washington Post

The White House cautioned Israel on Tuesday against reoccupying Gaza after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested that his country could hold a security role there “for an indefinite period” once the war is over. – New York Times

Facing growing anger from their own people, Arab countries are intensifying their appeals to the United States to pressure Israel to implement an immediate cease-fire in Gaza or risk sabotaging the security of the entire Middle East. – New York Times

They knew it would be perilous, but Jinan Al Salya and her family decided to heed Israeli directions to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip and head south. They hadn’t gone far on Saturday, she said, when they came under fire. – New York Times

The Bank of Israel said on Tuesday that it had spent $7.3 billion to support the shekel, which had fallen to an eight-year low after Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7. The currency is now back to about where it was before the invasion, and on Tuesday was trading at around 3.87 shekels to the dollar. – New York Times

Falluja. Mosul. Copenhagen. Hiroshima. Facing global criticism over a bloody military campaign in Gaza that has killed thousands of civilians, Israeli officials have turned to history in their defense. And the names of several infamous sites of death and destruction have been on their lips. – New York Times

About 5,000 people left the northern half of Gaza during a four-hour window given by the Israeli military on Monday, according to United Nations monitors, a day after Israel said its forces had cleaved the territory in two. – New York Times

Hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters calling for a cease-fire in Gaza blocked traffic Monday at the Port of Tacoma, where a military supply ship had recently arrived. – Associated Press

Israel is organizing showings for media around the world of a compilation of footage of Hamas’s October 7 massacre of 1,400 people in southern Israel, assembled from raw material sourced from victims and perpetrators alike. – Agence France-Presse

Israeli soldiers who have taken up positions near the Gaza border told AFP they felt proud to protect their country after Hamas’s October 7 massacre while admitting to being nervous as the war intensified. – Agence France -Presse

Renana Jacob was not at home when Hamas’s deadly attack on 7 October reached her kibbutz in southern Israel, but she quickly managed to reach her two sons by phone. – BBC

A Palestinian reporter has been killed alongside 42 family members, his news agency says, as a watchdog said the past month had been the most deadly for journalists since its records began. – BBC

Israel’s leaders have declared that Hamas will be wiped off the face of the Earth and Gaza will never go back to what it was. – BBC

In a video published Tuesday, the Israel Defense Force is seen escorting Gaza civilians, white flags in hand, toward safety in the south of the strip. An Israeli tank defends the civilians against Hamas, which had blocked their escape from the battlefield. – New York Sun

As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) fight their way deeper into the hostile Gaza Strip, they face not only the Hamas movement but an array of other armed Palestinian factions that have taken up arms. – Newsweek

G7 foreign ministers are set to issue a joint statement on the Israel-Hamas war on Wednesday and are expected to call for temporary pauses in fighting to allow humanitarian aid into the besieged Gaza Strip. – Reuters

Air strikes on the Gaza Strip killed a top Hamas weapons maker and several fighters, the Israeli military said on Wednesday, as its air and ground offensive targeted the militants’ vast tunnel network beneath the besieged Palestinian enclave. – Reuters

The Israel Defense Forces are “tightening the noose” around Gaza City, according to Israeli officials intent on killing the Hamas leaders who orchestrated the Oct. 7 rampage that started the war. – Washington Examiner

Tunnels and weapons warehouses used by Hamas were found near an amusement park and a university in the Gaza Strip during the IDF’s ongoing operations in the coastal enclave, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit revealed on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Among the victims of Israel’s “Black Sabbath” massacre were some 300,000 Israeli Arabs—part of the 20% of the population that forms the Israeli Arab sector—who are residents of the Negev desert in southern Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The White House accused Hamas of “genocidal intentions” against Israel, as it pushed back against criticism of the IDF’s military campaign in Gaza and its high Palestinian civilian death toll. – Jerusalem Post

Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli provided a detailed account to international ministers of close to 10 countries, such as Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair and Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi, calling for action against civil groups with ties to Hamas. – Jerusalem Post

Marking one month since the worst attack in the history of the Jewish state, Israelis across the country took part in vigils, memorial gatherings, prayers and protests as the nation continues to grapple with the devastating massacre. – Times of Israel 

Denial of the atrocities of October 7 or attempts to downplay Hamas’ role have been gaining traction on social media – to the point that some Israelis are following suit, even lawmakers. – Haaretz

The supposed instructions given to thousands of Hamas terrorists who attacked Israel on October 7 and massacred 1,400 Israelis were relayed at the last minute before the terror attack began, the British newspaper The Guardian revealed Tuesday. – Ynet

Editorial: If these organizations genuinely care about their missions and about saving Palestinian lives – and not just condemning Israel – it is long past time for them to speak out against Hamas’s abuses. – Jerusalem Post

Adam Taylor writes: But while the Israeli leader could be stalling, it’s also a return to form. Netanyahu has never shown much interest in the long-term future of the Palestinian Territories. It’s not surprising that he isn’t doing so now, even if the short-term, improvisational policies he pursued are now increasingly viewed as proven failures. – Washington Post

Bret Stephens writes: Jewish America abounds with dreamers and entrepreneurs who took crazy risks in their careers to find value and create things that never existed before. It’s time they apply the same talent and energy to creating new institutions that hew to genuinely liberal values, where Jews need never be afraid. In time, the rest of America may follow. – New York Times

Gregory J. Wallance writes: Events have borne him out now that, in the north, the IDF has encircled Gaza City. The hundreds of thousands of northern Gazans who did not evacuate south now find themselves in the middle of an urban battlefield hellscape that some predict will be akin to the battles of Mosul, Fallujah, or even Stalingrad. That is exactly where Hamas wants Gazan civilians to be — and with nowhere to hide. – The Hill

Gordon Robertson writes: Israel, surrounded by nations with a history of hostility, has a legitimate right to protect its citizens and ensure its security. To stand with Israel is to support its right to safeguard its people. On October 7, Hamas took away Israel’s sense of security and Hamas now vows to repeat October 7 again and again until Israel ceases to exist. The barbaric attacks of October 7 should never happen again. I stand with Israel against any ideology that threatens its existence. If you value liberty, democracy, equality, human rights, and self-determination, stand with Israel; it is the right thing to do. – Jerusalem Post

Bari Weiss writes: The Jewish people have outlived every single regime and ideology that has sought our elimination. We will persist, one way or another. But DEI is undermining America, and that for which it stands—including the principles that have made it a place of unparalleled opportunity, safety, and freedom for so many. Fighting it is the least we owe this country. – Tablet

Jon B. Alterman writes: Secretary of State Antony Blinken just spent most of the week in the Middle East pushing these ideas and others, but he didn’t seem to have much success. Israel appears very much to be in warfighting mode. If its public statements are any indication, it has not given nearly enough thought to what winning would look like, and Blinken was unable to shift its sights. Hamas reportedly planned its October 7 action for years, unsure of its own success but reasonably sure of Israel’s response. Israel cannot afford to lose a war. But in its efforts to win, it could. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Sahar Soleimany writes: Toppling Hamas will be a bloody—but absolutely necessary—endeavor. However, Israel cannot treat its ground invasion simply as retribution for Hamas’ egregious attacks. If it is interested in creating a post-war environment that enhances prospects for peace while denying Iran and its allies any gains, it must develop a serious strategy for building a better Gaza than what came before. Only then can it claim true victory. – RealClearWorld

Camille Jablonski writes: Despite the increase in West Bank attacks and protests, violence has not risen to the level that Hamas desires, spurring some of its leaders to voice discontent about the territory’s “inaction.” On October 29, senior official Mousa Abu Marzouk stated that Hamas members expect a lot from “their brothers” in the West Bank, calling the PA’s position on the conflict “shameful.” Hamas disappointment aside, the security situation in the territory remains volatile and should be watched carefully to deny all terrorist and militant factions the opportunity to open a new front in the war. – Washington Institute 

Russia & Ukraine

After months of heavy losses in a largely stalled counteroffensive against Russia, tension among Ukraine’s senior leaders has spilled awkwardly into the open in recent days — prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to call for a halt to political infighting. – Washington Post

Halyna Vynokur, a clerk in a hardware store in Kyiv, was shouldering a firearm for the first time. Iryna Sychova, a purchasing manager at a department store, disassembled and reassembled the jumble of rods and springs in a Kalashnikov rifle. – New York Times

The European Union will recommend on Wednesday that the bloc begins membership talks with Ukraine soon, boosting President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has made EU accession a central goal. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy late Monday ruled out holding a presidential vote in the spring and urged his countrymen to avoid political divides, saying they must concentrate all resources on fighting Russia. – Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly set to announce his 2024 reelection campaign, which could keep him in power through 2030. – The Hill

Israel intends to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a visit to show solidarity in response to the Hamas terrorist attack last month despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s careful management of ties with Russia. – Washington Examiner

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is near-perpetually under fire in Moscow’s grinding war against an enemy that has no significant conventional naval assets. – Newsweek

The first batch of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets has arrived at a training center in Romania as NATO pushes to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses. – Newsweek

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said on Wednesday that the “destructive” policies of the United States and its allies were increasing the risk that nuclear, chemical or biological weapons would be used. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday its troops had repelled Russian assaults in widely separated sectors of the war and braced for a fresh attempt to capture the key frontline eastern town of Avdiivka. – Reuters

David Ignatius writes: Russian history is a long story of coup plots and conspiracies, real and imagined. Regime change, he told me, requires three elements: a credible military force; domestic elites who are losing hope in the status quo; and an alternative government. Ponomarev said he is working on all three. – Washington Post

Sam Greene writes: The history of America’s engagement with Israel should provide both hope and impetus for those who understand what is at stake in Ukraine. Americans, by and large, care about their country’s role in the world. Already, a majority are convinced that a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat make America stronger and more secure. What they want is for their leaders, regardless of party, to pursue those convictions with courage and consistency. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

President Joe Biden has been briefed on what his advisers see as a Chinese plan to build a military facility in Oman, people familiar with the matter said, amid a broader effort by Beijing to deepen defense and diplomatic ties with the Middle East. – Bloomberg

Tunisian security and military forces caught five Islamists who escaped from a prison last week, where they were serving time for killing two secular politicians and policemen. – Reuters

Turkey’s parliament removed Coca-Cola (KO.N) and Nestle (NESN.S) products from its restaurants on Tuesday over their alleged support for Israel amid the conflict in Gaza, according to an official statement and a source who named the two companies. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia will host summits of Arab and Islamic nations in coming days to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Saudi Arabia’s investment minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Three drones on Tuesday targeted a military base at Erbil airport in Iraqi Kurdistan that plays host to troops from the US-led anti-jihadist coalition, local officials said. – Agence France- Presse

Tom Rogan writes: Even a cursory examination shows that Jordanian media outlets are utterly fixated on the civilian suffering in Gaza. This is the reality. And as an autocratic-populist leader, Abdullah’s stability requires his public recognition of his population’s viewpoints. The displacement of Abdullah’s rule would be far more problematic to Israeli and U.S. security interests than his present words. In short, the U.S. and Israel needn’t agree with what Jordan is saying about the conflict or accept Abdullah’s demands. But they have every interest in suggesting to Jordan that they are listening. – Washington Examiner

China

The bloody war in Gaza is providing America’s main geopolitical rivals China and Russia with a valuable opportunity to garner support around the world, enabling the two repressive autocracies to harness a wave of sympathy for the Palestinians and to position themselves as champions of humanitarian values and peace. – Wall Street Journal

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of risks posed by China’s financial and property sectors even as it took a more optimistic view on the country’s economic growth. – New York Times

China urges Estonia to abide by the “one China” principle, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday, in response to media reports that the Chinese ambassador is threatening to leave Estonia if Taiwan opens a representative office in the Baltic country. – Reuters

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said maritime disputes should be resolved through talks and warned against “camp” confrontations, but stopped short of naming the United States, days before an expected meeting between the countries’ leaders. – Reuters

China is churning out fishing vessels and warships at an eye-watering pace that no country can match, according to shipbuilding data across various industries. – Newsweek

As the U.S. seeks common ground with China in an era of great power competition, the most important thing is to “make clear and to demonstrate to the Chinese that we still have staying power,” national security official Kurt Campbell said Monday. – Newsweek

Hal Brands writes: Such maneuvering is the cut-and-thrust of competition: The Cold War saw plenty of what the strategist Thomas Schelling called “the diplomacy of violence,” or coercion just below the threshold of conflict. But it couldn’t come at a worse moment for Washington, which has huge incentives to avoid a blowup in Asia when Eastern Europe and the Middle East are already in flames. And it’s a warning that high-level dialogue doesn’t necessarily put an end to dangerous interactions. – Bloomberg

James Crabtree writes: Even if the critics are wrong and Biden has managed this balancing act well so far, that does not mean doubts among U.S. allies will go away. In fact, they are likely to grow as the global order continues to fray. Historian Paul Kennedy, the author of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, noted recently that an increasingly multipolar world would likely be one in which the United States is forced to focus its commitments on a narrower range of partners. “The American security blanket will be tighter, smaller, limited to those well-known places such as NATO-Europe, Japan, Australia, Israel, Korea, maybe Taiwan, and not much else,” he wrote in the New Statesman in September. But that only makes each of those alliances more important. As China and Russia probe for weaknesses, the United States’ ability to offer allies the reassurances they need will remain the ultimate test. – Foreign Policy

Edward Salo writes: Because of the rise of isolationism in Western nations, many nations that looked to the West for security protections began to work with China and other regional powers, like Iran, Brazil, or India, for security agreements. A multi-polar geopolitical landscape emerges that favors certain nations both economically and politically. – National Interest 

Tedford Tyler writes: A U.S.-China war is not “inevitable”. Therefore, the United States needs to get creative in forming a new relationship with China, one based on credible stability, candid disagreements, and limited cooperation. Both countries are secure and will remain great powers for a long time. The key is to move beyond framing war as “inevitable” and construct a new understanding, where each side has adjusted expectations of the other. – National Interest

Derek Grossman writes: Perhaps the best solution is what has already been happening: The United States should continue to offer military assistance and training to the Philippines so that Manila can increasingly counter China on its own while Washington continues to remind and warn Beijing that Article V must not be violated. This is the least risky option that also holds the greatest chance of success. – War on the Rocks

Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchette write: To protect its interests, U.S. leaders must become more adept at combining efforts to bolster military capabilities with clarity in their strategic objectives, strength in their coalitions, solid coordination with Taiwan, and a sharper comprehension of the psychology of decision-makers in Beijing. The United States has protected its interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for nearly 45 years. It has to up its game to continue doing so for the next 45. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

The foreign minister of Thailand said Tuesday that officials he had met in Qatar and Egypt indicated the Thai hostages held by Hamas and other armed groups would be the next to be released because they had nothing to do with the war. – New York Times

The Biden administration has suspended talks on some key digital trade aspects of its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework initiative, Democratic lawmakers said on Tuesday as negotiators from 14 countries race to finish some agreements ahead of a major Pacific Rim summit next week. – Reuters

Dozens of Filipinos fled from the war-ravaged Gaza Strip into Egypt through the Rafah crossing after Filipino diplomats negotiated for their safe passage and Qatar mediated for the border to be opened, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Wednesday. – Associated Press

The military-run Southeast Asian nation of Myanmar is holding its first joint naval exercise with Russia, state media reported Tuesday, with the countries carrying out maneuvers in the Andaman Sea. – Associated Press

President Joe Biden will host Joko Widodo, the president of Indonesia, for a meeting at the White House on Nov. 13. – Associated Press

U.S. Navy destroyer was followed by a Chinese warship and several armed fishing boats as it asserted navigational rights in the South China Sea last week, according to a newly released satellite image. – Newsweek

Karena Avedissian writes: For months, Western mediators seemed satisfied to sponsor sham “peace talks” between Armenia and Azerbaijan—while on the ground, ethnic Armenians in the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh were being starved by an Azerbaijani blockade. In late September, Azerbaijan attacked and killed scores of people, beginning an ethnic cleansing in which essentially the entire population of more than 100,000 Armenians fled. – Newsweek

Africa

A series of drone strikes around the town of Kidal in northern Mali have killed at least 14 people in the rebel stronghold, the town’s mayor said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group have been spreading for years from the vast arid expanse south of the Sahara Desert — the Sahel — into wealthier West African coastal states like Benin. Militants once were believed to want to use coastal nations like Benin, Togo and Ghana as bases for attacks on Sahel governments. Now militancy is taking root. – Associated Press

People fleeing to Chad have reported a new surge in ethnically-driven killings in Sudan’s West Darfur as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took over the main army base in the state capital, El Geneina. – Reuters

The main power lines to the city of Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have been cut due to an escalation in rebel fighting nearby, leaving hospitals and water systems without power, the electricity network operator said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The warring Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed to easing humanitarian aid deliveries and implementing confidence-building measures, mediators in talks in Jeddah said via Saudi state news agency SPA on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ethiopia is abuzz with rumours of a new war – which would be Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s fourth in five years. – BBC

The war between Israel and Hamas has exposed deep divisions in South Africa, with the government’s staunch support for the Palestinians coming in for criticism from leaders of the country’s Jewish community, among others. – BBC

Editorial: With so many other global crises demanding the Biden administration’s and the world’s attention, it might be tempting to write off Sudan and Niger as hopeless cases, defying easy resolution. That would be a mistake. Even a small change, the product of consistent sustained attention and diplomacy, could save lives. – Washington Post

Mohamed Kheir Omer writes: The current trajectory suggests a probable collision course that could have devastating regional implications. The situation is fluid, and careful diplomacy by the African Union and the international community is crucial to prevent a catastrophic outcome. The last thing the Horn of Africa needs is another war. – Foreign Policy

Latin America

In southern Brazil in July, Laureano Toscani and João Guilherme Correa were smoking cigarettes along a busy road in their prison-issued garb, shorts and sandals, waiting for a ride after seven months in jail. – New York Times

Welcome to the People’s Republic of China, the name of a gleaming new elementary school in the rough outskirts of Uruguay’s capital, built as part of Beijing’s charm offensive in South America as U.S. influence in the region wanes. – Wall Street Journal

The United States on Tuesday accused Russia of financing a Latin America-wide disinformation campaign that feeds media contacts with propaganda and fake news aimed at weakening support for Ukraine and boosting anti-U.S. and anti-NATO sentiments. – Reuters

Peru’s foreign minister Ana Cecilia Gervasi resigned on Monday after less than a year, amid questions over how she handled President Dina Boluarte’s visit last week to the United States. – Reuters

Editorial: The Maduro government’s repressive rule has left a once-thriving nation in ruins and created a humanitarian crisis that has spread far beyond the country’s borders. Yet coercion alone hasn’t solved the problem. A diplomatic strategy that upholds democratic principles while setting realistic goals is the best way forward for the US, the region and the Venezuelan people. – Bloomberg

Isabel Chiriboga writes: U.S.-backed securitization and militarization efforts must also be complemented by social programs. The foreign entities that help to organize these programs—such as the U.S. Agency for International Development—should work hard to carry out their proposed initiatives effectively, acting as visitors rather than intruders and taking care to listen and engage with local communities. The next 18 months will be a defining period for Ecuador as its new president seeks to combat unprecedented insecurity. It is in the United States’ best interest to assist him during this time. – Foreign Policy

Cybersecurity

Chinese President Xi Jinping said Wednesday that potential risks associated with artificial intelligence are challenges that countries should deal with together, remarks that come against the backdrop of China’s rigid control of free speech on the internet. – Associated Press

A North Korean government-backed hacking group is targeting financial institutions with malware affecting macOS. – The Record

Editorial: The Administration is touting an “AI safety pledge” signed by the U.S., U.K. and China last week. But Beijing is unlikely to honor such safeguards as it moves rapidly to surpass U.S. leadership in AI, including military uses. The best news about the order is that it will have to be implemented with regulation that can be challenged in court for its legal overreach. – Wall Street Journal

Zachary Faria writes: At some point, it should be clear that TikTok is nothing more than an extension of the Chinese Communist Party that allows it to peddle propaganda and promote destructive behavior to children while also leeching data from their devices (more so than any other social media app) and saving it for the CCP. If the pro-terrorism, “pro-Palestine” content and disinformation haven’t done it for you, the app bypassing Google and Apple protections or the app’s parent company spying on American journalists should have already. – Washington Examiner