Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Israeli military is beginning to draw down the number of its reservists serving in Gaza and other arenas, in a sign that it is reducing the intensity of fighting after two years of war and as the U.S.-brokered cease-fire holds. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas fighters holed up in the Israeli-held Rafah area of Gaza would surrender their arms in exchange for passage to other areas of the enclave under a proposal to resolve an issue seen as a risk to the month-old truce, according to two sources familiar with the talks. – Reuters

The United Nations Security Council on Thursday will start negotiations on a U.S.-drafted resolution to endorse President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, said a senior U.S. government official, and authorize a two-year mandate for a transitional governance body and international stabilization force. – Reuters

A Dutch appeals court on Thursday confirmed a decision to throw out a case brought by pro-Palestinian groups to stop the Netherlands exporting weapons to Israel and trading with Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories. – Reuters

A British citizen suspected of helping obtain and store weapons for attacks on Israeli and Jewish institutions in Europe was arrested in London on a German arrest warrant earlier this week, German prosecutors said. – Reuters

Israeli authorities confirmed Thursday that the remains of a hostage returned the previous day from Gaza are of a Tanzanian agricultural student in Israel who was killed on Oct. 7, 2023 in the Hamas-led attack that started the war. – Associated Press

Pope Leo XIV met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for the first time on Thursday, and the two men discussed the urgent need to provide assistance to civilians in Gaza and to pursue a two-state solution to end the conflict in the region. – Associated Press

Israel is moving to revive its tourism industry with a ceasefire in place, travel advisories lifted, and flights from the United Kingdom resuming. The Ministry of Tourism this week is taking part in the World Travel Market (WTM), the world’s largest international tourism fair, held in London. – Jerusalem Post

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir and Defense Minister Israel Katz, both at separate meetings over the past two days, announced orders to “declare war” on any attempts by Hamas or other adversaries to attack Israel with drones or to use them to smuggle weapons across the Egypt-Israel border for criminal purposes. – Jerusalem Post

The idea of laying a gas pipeline from Israel’s offshore reservoirs to Europe is back on the agenda, Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen said Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

White House Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Thursday that Hamas officials told him and fellow Trump aide Jared Kushner that the terror group wanted to disarm during their “famous meeting” hours before the ceasefire was inked on October 9. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Israel must be integrally involved in the next phase of the ceasefire and must be an equal partner with the US in determining what is best for its security. We have too much to lose if it’s not implemented properly. The measure of success of the ISF will be tangible – the disarmament of Hamas and the dismantling of its tunnel infrastructure, for starters. Anything less will be a failure, will jeopardize Israel’s security, and will bring Israel and Hamas back to war. – Jerusalem Post

Avi Weiss writes: On one hand, we cry out “mazal tov” as hostages are reunited with parents, siblings, and children, and there is hope – hope that the war has ended and life can begin anew.  Yet alongside those mazal tovs echoes the crackling sound of shattered glass in the air, a reminder that even our moments of joy are marred with loss. Our sacred task, as the Kabbalists teach, is to gather and fix the broken pieces. As Leonard Cohen, the great poet and singer, put it: “There is a crack in everything – that’s how the light gets in.” – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Ukrainian forces are still battling desperately to maintain their foothold in the besieged eastern city of Pokrovsk, even as debate mounts over whether they should tactically retreat — a move that could save lives but also deliver a propaganda victory to Russia. – Washington Post

A Ukrainian court sentenced a Russian soldier on Thursday to life in prison after finding him guilty of killing a Ukrainian prisoner of war, the first time Ukraine has jailed a suspect on such charges. – Reuters

Ukrainian drones struck a major oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region for the second time in almost three months, Ukraine’s general staff said Thursday. Russian officials did not confirm the attack, although the local governor said drones started a fire at an unspecified industrial facility in the region. – Associated Press

Senior U.S. officials urged European allies Thursday to speed up the phasing out of Russian gas by expanding regional pipeline networks and boosting American liquefied natural gas imports across Europe. – Associated Press

Ukraine Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna said her country is engaged in “positive” talks about buying Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weaponry, even after President Donald Trump signaled he didn’t want to send them to the country. – Bloomberg

Top Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky warned Europe to get ready for a long-term confrontation with Russia regardless of how Moscow’s war on Ukraine unfolds. – Politico

Serhii Plokhy writes: Nuclear threats must be answered. In that sense, Trump’s pronouncement was the step in the right direction. The problem is that counterthreats must be carefully considered, so as not to misfire and cause more confusion among adversaries and allies. Putin’s nuclear threats require a response — but one that prudently weighs both the risks and the potential benefits on the path of avoiding nuclear confrontation. – Washington Post

Marc Champion writes: Moscow’s worry, according to Massicot, is that the US and Europe will also study the war and adapt. NATO must, as she says, make sure those fears are realized. Better yet would be to give Kyiv enough help now to ensure Putin reaches the limits of what his military can achieve in front of Ukraine’s fortress belt, instead of at some later point, further West. – Bloomberg

Alexander J. Motyl writes: The resulting war has degraded Russia’s armed forces and pushed its economy toward recession, possible default and collapse. Thanks to Putin, Russia’s imperial dreams may still be alive, but its imperial prospects are dead. Dependent on China’s and North Korea’s good will and largesse, Russia has truly become, as many analysts and policymakers put it, Burkina Faso with the bomb — able to destroy and kill, but not to conquer. – The Hill

Emil Avdaliani writes: At the same time, the region’s longstanding primary power, Russia, is weaker than it was thanks to its war of aggression against Ukraine. This widens the areas where Azerbaijan can exercise autonomy and allows a broadening of relationships with others, including China, the EU, the US, Israel, and wealthy Arab States. Russia was surprised by the harsh Azerbaijani backlash to actions that would once have been accepted as the price of doing business with the Kremlin. There now seems to be a willingness on the Russian side to de-escalate, but if one thing is clear from the past year, it’s that the Azerbaijani leadership has no intention of accepting satellite status. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Middle East & North Africa

The United Nations Security Council voted on Thursday to remove President Ahmed al-Shara of Syria from a terrorism sanctions list, just days before his planned visit to Washington. – New York Times

Egypt and Qatar signed a partnership deal on Thursday to develop a luxury real estate and tourism project on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, part of Doha’s $7.5 billion investment pledge to Cairo. – Reuters

Qais Al-Khazali, a militia leader who has been designated as a global terrorist by the United States and is an important ally of Iran, has sought to soften his image in a quest to become one of Iraq’s top politicians. – Reuters

Anwar Ibrahim, 25, is so frustrated with Iraq’s sectarian politics that he is running for parliament, joining a wave of young Iraqis challenging an entrenched elite at elections next week. – Reuters

Rebels fighting for Western Sahara’s independence claimed an attack on Moroccan troops, signaling no let up after the United Nations indicated it was open to the kingdom’s plans to administer the disputed territory. – Bloomberg

In his workshop near the Syrian capital, Ghassan Aama is at a loss following a recent decision to massively hike electricity prices, even as much of the country continues to face extensive outages. – Agence France-Presse

The woman who has accused the prosecutor of the international criminal court of sexual abuse has been targeted by private intelligence firms as part of a covert operation said to have taken place on behalf of Qatar. – The Guardian

David Mamet writes: Before his appointment to the bench, Louis Brandeis referred to himself as “Counsel for the Situation.” This is a warm and pleasing understanding of the law, but for counsel to represent “the situation” rather than his client is actually a dereliction of his sworn duty. The U.N., the various peace commissions, the Camp David Accords, the Oslo Accords, and so on, were the work of Attorneys for the Situation. “A situation” is a persistent state of affairs. Mr. Trump recognized, and then busted out, the home game. – Wall Street Journal

Intissar Fakir writes: Both Algeria and Morocco face political constraints that are not merely negotiating positions, but domestic and regional realities that limit what leadership in both countries can accept. […] The Moroccan public has been told that the issue of the Western Sahara is settled; it is considered Moroccan territory, known locally as the southern provinces. The autonomy plan is Rabat’s maximalist offer, so any potential proposals will have to toe a careful line by preserving Moroccan sovereignty while providing enough incentives to draw in the Polisario without contradicting the kingdom’s governance model, which still by and large limits decentralization. – Middle East Institute

China

China has put its largest and most sophisticated aircraft carrier into active service, boosting Beijing’s quest to create a formidable oceangoing navy that can challenge U.S. power in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. – Wall Street Journal

China’s outbound shipments fell in October, reversing months of growth that have powered the world’s second-largest economy this year. – Wall Street Journal

China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on Thursday called for an end to trade barriers that are holding back the global energy transition, as he urged “true multilateralism” from fellow leaders at a global climate summit in Brazil. – Reuters

China’s commerce ministry on Thursday flagged fresh prospects for a trade or investment agreement with the European Union, raising the idea of negotiations for a deal similar to a landmark investment pact whose ratification was frozen in 2021. – Reuters

As US-China relations lurch between escalation and detente, some local American officials are pursuing their own diplomacy to secure access to the world’s second-largest market. – Bloomberg

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper their countries should strengthen strategic communication to stabilize ties amid rising global tensions, warning that their bilateral relations may risk backsliding. – Bloomberg

Asia

The Philippines declared a national state of emergency Thursday, after a deadly typhoon swept through vulnerable low-lying communities in the country’s center, flooding streets and prompting an urgent search and rescue effort. – Washington Post

President Trump said on Thursday that Kazakhstan had joined the Abraham Accords, the landmark deals he sealed in his first term to normalize ties between Israel and several majority-Muslim countries. – New York Times

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called critical minerals a key priority as he hosted the leaders of five Central Asian nations at the White House, emphasizing his administration’s efforts to expand and secure U.S. supply chains through new global agreements. – Reuters

Thailand’s Board of Investment said on Thursday that it will provide up to 5 billion baht ($153 million) in funds to strengthen industrial competitiveness and develop skills, the first time the agency has offered direct financial support instead of tax incentives. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday lifted an embargo on defense trade with Cambodia, after President Donald Trump oversaw the signing of a ceasefire deal between the Southeast Asian country and its neighbor Thailand last week. – Reuters

Georgian prosecutors charged eight opposition figures, including jailed former President Mikheil Saakashvili, with plotting to topple the government and aiding foreign powers, a move sure to deepen concerns about democracy in the EU candidate nation. – Reuters

Japan announced Friday that its seafood exports have resumed for the first time since China imposed a ban over the discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant more than two years ago. – Associated Press

Uzbekistan will invest more than $100 billion in the US over the next decade, President Donald Trump said. – Bloomberg

Japan and the US will join forces to extract rare earths in the waters around a small island in the Pacific, after the two allies struck an agreement to work together to cut their reliance on China for the critical mineral. – Bloomberg

Zack Cooper writes: Therefore, the biggest challenge for the Trump administration’s National Defense Strategy is not whether it allocates resources to a strategy of denial but how it integrates denial and punishment into a holistic deterrence framework. Rebuffing an initial attack on Taiwan is necessary but not sufficient. Without a plan for terminating a war, Washington would risk repeating the pattern of U.S. strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan that many Trump officials critiqued: winning the first battle but losing the war. If the United States is to deter China, it will have to persuade Chinese leaders that Washington has a strategy not only for the early stages of a conflict but also for the end stage of a war. – Foreign Affairs

Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili writes: Washington sees the route as helping “reduce chokepoint risks” and diversifying trade away from corridors dominated by Russia or Iran. Geography makes this urgent: landlocked Central Asia is surrounded by sanctioned neighbors—Russia to the north, Iran to the southwest, and Afghanistan to the south—leaving these states eager for new outlets to the global economy. The corridor also serves U.S. interests. It gives Washington and Brussels access to regional markets without routing through Russia and helps diversify supply chains when diversification is most important. Central Asia wants investors and pragmatic advice on integrating into global markets—not the export of another round of U.S. culture wars disguised as democracy promotion. – National Interest

Emily Milliken and Gershom Sacks write: Kazakhstan’s accession signals that the Abraham Accords are evolving beyond their original Middle Eastern framework. It also builds momentum for the Abraham Accords ahead of Shara and MBS’ visits to Washington. This new paradigm expands the initiative’s reach into Central Asia, transforming it from a regional agreement into a broader platform for Arab and Muslim-majority engagement with the United States and Israel. If successful, we could one day see the accords include members from regions like Southeast Asia and the Horn of Africa. – National Interest

Africa

Pirates boarded a Malta-flagged products tanker off Somalia on Thursday, but the crew took refuge in a fortified safe room and remain in control of the vessel, maritime security sources said. – Reuters

European nations are throwing their weight behind a $2.5 billion plan to save the Congo rainforest, a document seen by Reuters showed, launching a conservation scheme that may steal some thunder from the flagship initiative of COP30 host Brazil. – Reuters

France’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that the decision by the military-led government in Mali to turn to Russia and armed groups linked to Moscow for security assistance to fight Islamist militants had proven to be a failure. – Reuters

An International Monetary Fund official said its mission to Senegal had concluded without a new lending programme, but that it aimed to finalise one as soon as possible. – Reuters

Cameroon’s Paul Biya, the world’s oldest ruler, was sworn in for an eighth term as president on Thursday following a disputed election that triggered deadly protests. – Reuters

The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that has been at war with the Sudanese military for over two years, said Thursday it has agreed to a humanitarian truce proposed by a U.S.-led mediator group known as the Quad. – Associated Press

Judges at the International Criminal Court on Thursday confirmed war crimes and crimes against humanity charges against Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony, who remains at large. – Associated Press

New satellite imagery has detected activity “consistent with mass graves” in the Sudanese city of El-Fasher, Yale researchers said in a report released Thursday, more than a week after mass killings were reported in the area. – Agence France-Presse

Eric A. Friedman, Suad Abdel Aziz, and John Prendergast write: The future of Sudan itself is also at stake. If the Rapid Support Forces consolidates power, the world will have allowed a genocidal militia to seize and hold land with impunity. A collapse of Sudan would destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, drive refugees across the Sahel and into Europe, and embolden other paramilitaries. […] Yet the cost of silence, of continuing business as usual, is infinitely greater. It will be measured in lives. It will be measured in more Mohammeds, more Muammars. Standing resolutely with the Sudanese people is the only path forward. – New York Times

Alex de Waal writes: The backers of the SAF’s Islamist faction, however—Qatar and Turkey—need to be brought into the room, as does Trump himself. It remains unlikely that the UAE will draw back its support for the RSF’s military campaign or that other foreign actors will make serious and necessary concessions unless Trump wields direct pressure. Rubio, Boulos, and their counterparts in Arab capitals and in Ankara can work out the details, but the theatrics of a true deal require the Oval Office as a stage. Without quick action, the RSF and its drones will close in on Khartoum, and the SAF will almost certainly attempt a vengeful counterattack. However terrible the war and its consequent famine in Sudan is today, it can still get much worse. – Foreign Affairs

North America

President Trump’s tariffs are starting to take a big bite out of Canada’s economy. The U.S.’s second-largest trading partner is flirting with recession, unemployment has risen to its worst non-pandemic levels in almost a decade, and business investment has stalled. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. trade officials met with representatives from Switzerland this week and are having discussions with trade officials from Mexico, Central America and others in the Western Hemisphere, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday. – Reuters

The teenage attacker who shot and killed a popular mayor in western Mexico was a known methamphetamine addict, but organized crime was also involved in the assassination, state authorities said Thursday. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

To combat a surge in modern-day online scams, Singapore has turned to a punishment from the past: caning. This week, Singapore’s Parliament amended criminal law in the city-state to introduce caning as a penalty for scammers and scam mules after tens of thousands of scams resulting in nearly $385 million in losses were reported in the first half of this year alone. – Washington Post

CEO Elon Musk on Thursday said Tesla probably will have to build “a gigantic chip fab” to make artificial intelligence chips and publicly mused the EV maker could work with Intel. – Reuters

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Friday, upon arriving in the city of Tainan for his fourth public visit to Taiwan this year, that the U.S. AI chipmaker did not plan to ship anything to China but hoped to serve the Chinese market again in the future. – Reuters

The White House has informed other federal agencies that it will not permit Nvidia (NVDA.O), to sell its latest scaled-down AI chips to China, The Information reported on Thursday, citing three people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

The European Commission is in touch with French authorities as well as with Chinese online retailer Shein following a French complaint about Shein allowing pornographic content or weapons sales on its platform, an EU spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters

Google plans to build a large artificial intelligence data centre on Australia’s remote Indian Ocean outpost of Christmas Island after signing a cloud deal with the Department of Defence earlier this year, according to documents reviewed by Reuters and interviews with officials. – Reuters

The European Union’s law enforcement agency wants to speed up how it gets its hands on artificial intelligence tools to fight serious crime, a top official said. – Politico

Ukraine’s grain industry has become the latest target of the notorious Russian state-backed hacking unit Sandworm, amid Moscow’s ongoing efforts to undermine the country’s wartime economy. – The Record

Charles Rivkin writes: Parents should not use “the same mental model” for movies and social media. They are entirely different contexts with different risk profiles. Claiming PG-13 and its trusted brand as a shield for Instagram’s content offers social media users a false sense of security and risks eroding moviegoers’ trust in film ratings. Meta, leave the PG-13 rating to the big screen. – Washington Post

Maciej Bukowski writes: If the US and Europe want to lead, they must take three practical steps. First, they should align their AI forecasting models through shared testing and validation so that warnings crossing borders come with a single trusted signal. Second, they should extend early warning coverage in the Global South through low-cost delivery networks that translate forecasts into instructions that communities can act upon. Third, they should develop governance rules that ensure climate AI remains explainable, secure, and accountable during disasters when trust is fragile. AI cannot master the climate, but it can help determine who sees change first and acts fastest. Power will rest with those who can foresee disruption and guide the response. – Center for European Policy Analysis