Fdd's overnight brief

November 7, 2024

In The News

Israel

Two significant constraints on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to shape security policy are now gone. He fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, his fiercest opponent within his own government, and Donald Trump won the U.S. election. Trump was widely believed to be less critical of Netanyahu’s policies than his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. – Wall Street Journal

A missile fired from Lebanon struck an open area of Ben Gurion Airport in central Israel on Wednesday, according to an Israeli security official and images and videos circulating online from the area of the impact.  – Wall Street Journal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejoiced over Donald Trump’s election victory, as he banked on resetting relations with Washington and following through on his maximalist aims in the country’s multifront war. – Washington Post

Gideon Saar, Israel’s newly appointed foreign minister, has served in a string of government posts, switching political alliances while maintaining hard-line opposition to Palestinian statehood. – New York Times

The Israeli military said on Wednesday aid organizations had completed a second polio vaccination round for children in Gaza, administering more than 1.1 million vaccinations in different areas of the enclave, achieving 90% coverage. – Reuters

The United Nations says replacing its Palestinian relief agency UNRWA in Gaza and the West Bank is not the world body’s responsibility, signaling it was Israel’s problem, according to a letter excerpt seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Israel’s parliament passed a law early Thursday that would allow it to deport family members of Palestinian attackers, including the country’s own citizens, to the war-ravaged Gaza Strip or other locations. – Associated Press

Israel and the World Health Organization said Wednesday that more than 200 Gazans, both patients and their caregivers, were evacuated to the United Arab Emirates and Romania on Wednesday for medical treatment. – Agence France Presse

A terrorist was neutralized after reportedly attempting a ramming attack in Anata, East Jerusalem, during the early hours of Thursday morning, Israeli media reported. – Jerusalem Post

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas extended congratulations to President-elect Donald Trump following his projected win on Wednesday, the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported. – Jerusalem Post

The Movement for Quality has submitted an urgent petition to the High Court of Justice on Wednesday morning regarding Yoav Gallant’s dismissal as Defense Minister. – Jerusalem Post

An Israeli teenager was killed by a Hezbollah rocket in the north on Wednesday, after the terror group also fired rockets twice throughout the day at central Israel, demonstrating it maintains the capability to launch long-range attacks even as the Israeli military pursues its ground operation in southern Lebanon. – Times of Israel

An Israeli delegation of more than 100 people will attend the upcoming annual United Nations climate conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, which kicks off on November 11 for two weeks.  – Times of Israel

Two civilians were lightly injured on Wednesday in a car-ramming and stabbing attack near the West Bank settlement of Shiloh. The Palestinian terrorist was shot dead by an armed civilian in the vicinity. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party took steps on Wednesday to clamp down on internal dissent by party lawmakers opposed to legislation that would enshrine the exemption of members of the ultra-Orthodox community from military service. – Times of Israel

In a newly released recording recovered in the Gaza tunnel where six hostages were murdered in August, Hamas terror group operatives can be heard watching an Al Jazeera broadcast about the families of captives. They can be heard noting a picture of Almog Sarusi, who was held in the tunnel in which the recording was found. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The Jerusalem Post has been running photographs of the hostages on the top left of its front page every day for the past year under the headline, “Bring them home.” Time is running out. We urge the outgoing administration to do all it can to expedite a deal before the new president takes over. It would be both Biden’s legacy and his parting gift – to Israel, the United States, and the world. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could mean tougher enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions against Iran, potentially trimming global supplies, but his administration could struggle to get China, Iran’s top crude customer, to cooperate, analysts said. – Reuters

U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday he might head to Iran in the coming days to discuss its disputed atomic programme and that he expected to work cooperatively with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. – Reuters

Iranians’ livelihoods will not be affected by the U.S. elections, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani was reported as saying on Wednesday after Donald Trump claimed victory in the presidential vote. – Reuters

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election drew mixed reactions among ordinary Iranians, with some fearing a heightened risk of war and economic hardship but others hoping his hardline stance might bring political change in Iran. – Reuters

U.S. elections are an opportunity to review the “wrong approaches” of the American government, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Thursday according to state media, after Donald Trump won the presidency on Wednesday. – Reuters

Four people were sentenced to death by a revolutionary court in northwestern Iran over charges of spying for Israel, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russia & Ukraine

Russian drones are hunting civilians in Kherson, unleashing a new kind of terror on Ukraine’s largest front-line city. Since Ukraine retook Kherson two years ago, Russian forces just across the Dnipro River have pummeled the city with artillery, missiles and one-ton glide bombs. – Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine by Inauguration Day now puts him in a position of having to choose between competing proposals from advisers united by a common thread—a sharp break from President Biden’s “as long as it takes” approach to arming Kyiv. Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian officials’ congratulations of President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday were fast and effusive — but did little to mask the fears and uncertainty that now hangs over Ukraine’s future. – Washington Post

As Russian troops march relentlessly forward with fierce assaults in Ukraine’s east, Moscow is unleashing a different form of terror on civilians in towns and cities: a wave of long-range drone strikes that has little precedent in the 32-month-old war. – New York Times

Russia plans to significantly tighten the rules governing the income received by those deemed “foreign agents” and of those who speak negatively about Russia after leaving the country, the speaker of the Russian parliament said on Thursday. – Reuters

Russian drones struck a district of Kyiv just outside the city centre early on Thursday, with authorities reporting damage to an apartment and garages being set ablaze, but no injuries. – Reuters

The White House plans to rush billions of dollars in security assistance to Ukraine before President Joe Biden leaves office in January, sources said on Wednesday, hoping to shore up the government in Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration. – Reuters

Russian forces have captured two more settlements in areas of heavy military activity in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Kremlin reacted cautiously on Wednesday after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, saying the U.S. was still a hostile state and that only time would tell if Trump’s rhetoric on ending the Ukraine war translated into reality. – Reuters

Estonia’s prime minister said that support for Ukraine in the months ahead will shape the future of the European Union as he urged his colleagues to do more to protect Kyiv and themselves. – Bloomberg

Ukraine said a drone strike hit a naval base in a port city on Russia’s Caspian Sea coast, in Kyiv’s first-ever attack on a target in the region some 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from the frontline. – Bloomberg

Lebanon

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on Wednesday that only developments on the battlefield, not political moves, would bring an end to the hostilities between the Lebanese armed group and the Israeli military. – Reuters

Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed 40 people around the eastern city of Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley on Wednesday, according to the country’s health ministry, and at dusk more strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs. – Reuters

A group of NGOs pressed countries on Wednesday to hold an emergency session of the United Nations Human Rights Council to set up an investigation into abuses committed by both sides of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon. – Reuters

Lebanon filed a complaint against Israel at the U.N.’s labor organization over the string of deadly attacks involving exploding pagers, saying workers were among those killed and injured, a Lebanese government minister said Wednesday. – Associated Press

Middle East & North Africa

Across the world, the U.S., China and Russia are rubbing up against each other as Beijing and Moscow try to establish a new international order. The tiny United Arab Emirates is looking closer to home. – Wall Street Journal

This time around, the Gulf states will likely look to the new Trump administration for help in ending the devastating war in the Middle East, firm security guarantees and American investment as they try to diversify the region’s economic base away from almost total reliance on energy. – New York Times

The Iraqi government’s Council for National Security said on Wednesday that reports about Iraqi territory being used by Iran for attacks on Israel are “false pretexts” aimed at justifying aggression against it, the military said. – Reuters

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan held a telephone call with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump late on Wednesday and discussed improving cooperation between the two countries in his new term. – Reuters

Turkey expects Donald Trump’s White House will lower tariffs on its steel and textile exports, the trade minister said on Thursday, as the lira and Turkish assets continued to rally on prospects of new U.S. trade and foreign policies. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol spoke with Donald Trump on Thursday and congratulated him on winning the U.S. presidency on the “Make America Great Again” slogan as officials in Seoul worked to prepare for “significant” economic changes. – Reuters

South Korea’s presidential office said on Wednesday that it will build a “perfect” security partnership with a new U.S. administration. – Reuters

Donald Trump has long touted his relationship with Kim Jong Un, but if the U.S. president-elect seeks another summit he will find a North Korean leader emboldened by an expanded missile arsenal and a much closer relationship with Russia. – Reuters

Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traded insults and threats during his first presidency over Pyongyang’s weapons programs, although they met three times and Trump once quipped “we fell in love” after exchanging letters. – Reuters

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and US President-elect Donald Trump discussed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia during a phone conversation that comes amid growing concern about Pyongyang’s deepening military cooperation with Moscow. – Bloomberg

Karishma Vaswani writes: Washington needs to focus on breaking up the bromance between Russia and North Korea and accept, as my colleague Gearoid Reidy has argued, that Pyongyang is already a nuclear state. Closer ties with Tokyo and Seoul are necessary too, particularly on coordination, intelligence-sharing and monitoring. […]Kim’s willingness to intervene in distant conflicts underlines the urgency for coordinated international action to contain his ambitions. The isolated regime fell off President Joe Biden’s radar. The next president must work to contain the threat of a precarious new front from emerging in the Indo-Pacific. – Bloomberg

China

A senior AstraZeneca executive is under detention by Chinese authorities investigating the U.K. pharmaceutical company’s employees in the country. Leon Wang, executive vice president in charge of China and the broader Asian region, is being detained while the Chinese government is probing AstraZeneca employees, the company said Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump’s return to the White House injects new volatility into ties between the U.S. and China, threatening to transform a tense relationship between the world’s two main powers into something less predictable and more confrontational. – Wall Street Journal

China’s President Xi Jinping congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. presidential win and urged both nations to find the “right way to get along”, as looming U.S. tariffs threatened to return them to the days of a trade war years ago. – Reuters

China and the Solomon Islands have agreed to exempt citizens of both countries from travel visa requirements, the Chinese foreign ministry’s consular affairs department said in a social media post on Thursday. – Reuters

Chinese social media users hailed Donald Trump’s stunning presidential comeback, while acknowledging the Republican’s political revival likely meant more turbulence for the world’s No. 2 economy – Bloomberg

South Asia

Pakistan’s government is taking the country in an increasingly authoritarian direction in a bid to fend off any challenge from the party of jailed opposition leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan, political experts and government critics said. – Wall Street Journal

Modi became one of the first major leaders to congratulate Trump on his “historic” win in Tuesday’s election, posting his message alongside photos of the two men holding hands at a rally of thousands of supporters in Houston five years ago. He quickly followed that up with a phone call. – Bloomberg

A roadside bomb exploded near a vehicle carrying security forces in restive northwestern Pakistan, killing four officers and wounding five others, officials said Thursday, and the same day two schoolchildren were killed when a mortar exploded near them elsewhere in the northwest. – Associated Press 

Indian-controlled Kashmir ’s regional legislature passed a resolution on Wednesday demanding the federal government restore the disputed region’s semi-autonomy that was scrapped by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration in 2019. – Associated Press

Asia

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hopes to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in the United States this month, four sources said, in an attempt to emulate then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s close ties during Trump’s first term. – Reuters

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he had spoken with Donald Trump on Thursday after the Republican’s U.S. election win, as Australia’s U.S. ambassador deleted comments he previously made about Trump, saying they did not reflect the view of the Australian government. – Reuters

Taiwan may demonstrate it takes Donald Trump’s “protection” money demand seriously with large and early new arms deals, showing it is not looking for a free ride and is determined to show Washington its resolve to spend to defend itself. – Reuters

China’s Premier Li Qiang expressed support for Myanmar’s political reconciliation and 2025 election plans in a meeting with Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing on Wednesday, according to state media outlets.Reuters

France’s highest civil court on Wednesday rejected an appeal by the heirs of a former sultan who sought nearly $15 billion from Malaysia’s government, drawing a line under a lengthy legal battle stemming from an 1878 land deal. – Reuters

The Japanese and Polish governments will on Thursday sign a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in nuclear energy, Poland’s industry ministry said. – Reuters

Thailand’s economy stands to gain from any U.S.-China trade war, Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said on Thursday, adding the Southeast Asian country had good relations with both nations and would not need to take sides in a dispute. – Reuters

India should join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a top official at a government think tank said on Thursday, years after the country decided to walk out of the China-backed Asian trade bloc. Reuters

Europe

Germany’s fractious coalition government collapsed on Wednesday, tipping the economically embattled nation into a political crisis and adding uncertainty for Europe as the region grapples with Donald Trump’s election win in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed in a joint statement on Thursday their concerns over the political situation in Georgia. – Reuters

Donald Trump’s return to power and the collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition will be major talking points at a meeting of nearly 50 European leaders and an EU summit in Budapest on Thursday and Friday to discuss support for Ukraine, migration, economic security and waning EU competitiveness. – Reuters

The United States on Wednesday expanded sanctions against an individual and an entity who have helped Bosnian Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik and his son evade existing U.S. sanctions, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement. – Reuters

Ireland plans to hold a general election on Nov. 29, Prime Minister Simon Harris said on Wednesday, as his centre-right coalition bids to capitalise on a popular budget and a dramatic slide in support for opposition left-wing nationalists Sinn Fein. – Reuters

The Alternative for Germany, a far-right party polling second nationally, will expel three members arrested for suspected involvement in an extremist group accused by prosecutors of planning an armed revolt, the party said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Germany’s cabinet on Wednesday approved a draft law that would allow the army to gauge the readiness of the country’s 18-year-olds to serve in the Bundeswehr as it looks to boost troop numbers for NATO obligations without resorting to conscription. – Reuters

A contentious Swiss prohibition on facial coverings in public spaces widely known as the “burqa ban” will take effect on Jan. 1, the government said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Belarusian authorities have launched a new wave of arrests, seeking to uproot any sign of dissent ahead of January’s election in which authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko is seeking a seventh term, rights campaigners said. – Associated Press

European Union countries are discussing a joint air shield that would cost around €500 billion ($537 billion), the bloc’s nominee for defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, told the European Parliament. – Bloomberg

Hungary’s fiery, right-wing leader says Donald Trump’s victory will help his own battle against immigration and multiculturalism and restore traditional family values. – Associated Press

An Afghan man has been charged with killing a police officer and wounding several others in an Islamist-inspired knife attack earlier this year that shocked Germany, prosecutors said Wednesday. – Agence France Presse

Ronan Murphy writes: “The path is fraught. Workarounds must be found to allow a small group of governments to progress. The first step to a solution is to acknowledge the problem and the new Commission has taken the early decisions to inject security into European tech policy. Donald Trump’s second presidency will force it to accelerate in this new direction. The cavalry will not be coming.” – Center for European Policy Analysis

Irina Abidze writes: Even the staunchest pro-Western advocates in Georgia are increasingly anxious that the West is allowing a friendly nation to slip through the cracks of what was known as the world order. GD’s provocative rhetoric and actions — targeting Western institutions and senior American and European diplomats — have gone largely unpunished […]It is not too late for the West to act decisively. It must send a clear message to Georgian Dream that failure to address election-day violations, and attempts to undermine civil society and the media, will result in serious consequences. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Africa

An initial 899,000 vaccine doses have been allocated for 9 countries across Africa that have been hit hard by the current mpox surge, the WHO and other health organisations said on Wednesday. – Reuters

South Africa has temporarily closed its main border crossing with Mozambique over safety concerns, its border authority said on Wednesday, as protests against last month’s disputed election in Mozambique continued to escalate. – Reuters

Mozambican authorities have threatened to deploy soldiers to quell post-election protests that have engulfed the country after the opposition rejected the results of the country’s polls which saw the governing Frelimo party extend its 49-year rule. – Associated Press

Mozambique’s opposition leader, who’s supporters have shaken the southeast African nation with protests over last month’s disputed election, abandoned plans to return for a final march on Thursday. – Bloomberg

Ido Levy writes: In addition, the United States should create a coordination forum to synchronize all the players currently fighting al-Shabab. The separate efforts being conducted by Britain, Qatar, Turkey, the UAE, and various subnational Somali authorities would be more effective if merged under a single institutionalized framework, much like the U.S.-led “Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS” has achieved. In particular, a joint operations center could help maximize the impact of independent U.S., Emirati, and Turkish air operations in Somalia. The “S6” group of security donors (Britain, the EU, Turkey, the UAE, the UN, and the United States) could serve as the basis for this platform. – Washington Institute

The Americas

Panama’s Maritime Authority said on Wednesday it has begun a process to cancel flag registrations on four LNG vessels sanctioned by the United States over their links with Russian gas producer Novatek. – Reuters

Venezuela’s government on Wednesday congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential contest, with President Nicolas Maduro later calling Trump’s re-election “a new start” for bilateral relations. – Reuters

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday congratulated former U.S. President Donald Trump on his victory in the presidential election, asking him for dialogue and respect for sovereignty. – Reuters

United States

Israeli officials were some of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Donald J. Trump on his election victory on Wednesday, with some hailing it as a win for their country. The sentiment reflects Mr. Trump’s record of strong support for Israel, even when that meant reversing decades of American policy in the Middle East. – New York Times

A military judge ruled on Wednesday that plea agreements in the Sept. 11 case were valid, reviving the possibility that the man accused of planning the attacks, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, and two accused accomplices could eventually be sentenced to life in prison instead of death. – New York Times

Self-identified independents accounted for a larger share of voters in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election than Democrats and were tied with Republicans, Edison Research exit polling data showed. – Reuters

Donald Trump has already appointed three Supreme Court justices. In his second term, he could well have a chance to name two more, creating a high court with a Trump-appointed majority that could serve for decades. – Associated Press

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has reportedly banished from campus a student who penned an article which argued that violence was a legitimate method of effecting political change to fight Israel and support “Palestine.” – Algemeiner

Rony Hersch writes: Yet, the first step to solidifying his leadership is building trust as a president for as many Americans as possible (it’s unrealistic to say he’ll appeal to everyone). With a strong and significant base of support, Trump will be better positioned to advance his goals. To start, he might consider focusing on issues with cross-party consensus, laying the groundwork to build trust across the board. Through a gradual building of trust, Trump could then set in motion larger, more ambitious plans for the United States. – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

Canada said Wednesday it ordered TikTok Technology Canada, the domestic unit of the social-media app’s Chinese owner, to dissolve its business operations due to national-security concerns. – Wall Street Journal

The Australian government will legislate for a ban on social media for children under 16, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Thursday, in what it calls a world-leading package of measures that could become law late next year. – Reuters

Ukraine’s largest university has banned the use of Telegram for official communications, marking a new effort to limit reliance on the Russian-founded messaging app, which Ukrainian authorities consider a national security threat. – The Record

Defense

President Donald Trump’s election win likely means the creation of a Space National Guard under his administration after he made creating the new reserve force a notable promise during his campaign. – Military.com

A Space Force effort dedicated to improving partnerships between the military and commercial space industry has added five new vendors to its cohort and will soon begin supporting two additional mission areas, the service announced Wednesday. – Defense Scoop

The Army is still determining how best to wage electronic warfare at echelon with various platforms. A series of events will help officials determine what the concept of employment for EW will be at the division level and what programs of record will look like. – Defense Scoop