Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The war between Israel and Hamas was sparked after the militant group’s attack on southern Israel in October last year left 1,200 people dead and 250 held hostage. The fallout is increasingly threatening the economy in the West Bank, a separate majority-Palestinian territory a few dozen miles away.  – Wall Street Journal

At least 29 Palestinians were killed early on Tuesday in Israeli airstrikes on tents housing displaced people in several areas of Gaza, including Beit Lahiya, Deir Al-Balah and the town of Al-Zawayda, the official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported. – Reuters

France’s foreign minister will travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories on Wednesday seeking to press Israel to engage diplomatically to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon after the U.S. presidential election is over. – Reuters

Israel has taken some measures to increase aid access to Gaza but has so far failed to significantly turn around the humanitarian situation in the enclave, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Monday, as a deadline set by the U.S. to improve the situation approaches. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday and urged further actions to substantially increase humanitarian aid in Gaza, the State Department said in a statement. – Reuters

Israel’s Air Force said on Monday it had struck Hezbollah intelligence assets near Damascus in an attack on key infrastructure in Syria that Syria said had targeted civilian sites. – Reuters

The Israeli military denied on Monday that it had hit a clinic in the northern Gaza Strip where health workers were carrying out polio vaccinations. – Reuters

More than 100 patients including children suffering from trauma injuries and chronic diseases will be evacuated from Gaza on Wednesday in a rare transfer out of the war-ravaged enclave, a World Health Organization official said. – Reuters

Besieged and degraded after more than a year of war, pockets of Hamas fighters in northern Gaza have been dogging the Israeli army with what are often makeshift munitions. That’s precisely what their sponsors in Tehran intended. – Bloomberg

An airstrike hit an armed terror cell in an airstrike in the Qabatiya area of the West Bank near Jenin, the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement Tuesday. – Times of Israel

Salem Alketbi writes: The attack aligns with Netanyahu’s own declarations that the strike on Iran would target only military facilities and avoid nuclear and oil installations. This limitation proved strategically vital for Netanyahu, as executing the attack within his promised scope both advanced his political agenda and diminished the standing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who had earlier vowed the strike on Iran would be “lethal, precise, and surprising” – leaving Iranians bewildered about the nature and method of the attack. – Jerusalem Post

Shaked Sadeh writes: Baram concluded by asserting that Israel should leverage its operational successes to gain an advantage before entering any diplomatic resolution. “The challenge lies in influencing not just the battlefield but also public opinion and leadership in Lebanon. Weakening public support for Hezbollah and diminishing their ability to sway civilians could lead to a ceasefire on terms favorable to Israel.” – Jerusalem Post

Efraim Laor writes: UNRWA should close its operations immediately, following the pattern that we saw with the International Refugee Organization (IRO) which closed its operations some 70 years back. After a period its responsibilities should be assumed by other agencies as indicated [and listed] above. Another option that might be better is that they give-up their desire to destroy Israel, stop living like beggars at the expense of others, and resettle – like the vast majority of people world-wide. – Arutz Sheva

Karen Bekker writes: Neither the slain Israeli children nor the many displaced Israeli civilians were mentioned in this report. At fault as well is UNIFIL, which failed in its mission to protect both Israeli and Lebanese civilians by restraining Hezbollah, yet which also isn’t even mentioned in Molana-Allen’s report. – Algemeiner

Joseph Braude writes: The legacy media often portrays Hezbollah’s war against Israel as a “resistance” movement. Over the past seven weeks, our Hezbollah’s Hostages series has shown the opposite: that the terror group is a tyrant in Lebanon, an occupier in Syria, a mafia cartel that trafficks in drugs and sex slaves, and the command headquarters of Iran’s imperial project in Arab lands. – The Free Press

Russia & Ukraine

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies. – Wall Street Journal

The Kremlin may quietly prefer that Donald J. Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential elections on Tuesday. But among hard-liners and ordinary Russians, hopes that either candidate could help bring a swift end to the war in Ukraine — by stopping military aid and effectively forcing Kyiv to accept Russia’s occupation of its territory — are low. – New York Times

Russia launched a Soyuz rocket early on Tuesday carrying two satellites designed to monitor the space weather around Earth and 53 small satellites, including two Iranian ones, Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin accepted the sudden resignation on Monday of one of Russia’s longest serving governors who headed the Rostov region that has been plagued by Ukrainian drones and where the Wagner Group forces started a short-lived mutiny. – Reuters

Ukraine’s air defence units were trying to repel a Russian air attack on Kyiv, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday it shot down 48 out of 79 drones and two missiles launched by Russia overnight. – Reuters

The Moscow city court on Tuesday rejected an appeal against a 12-and-a-half-year prison sentence by U.S. national Robert Woodland on drugs charges, the RIA news agency reported. – Reuters

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Monday he had discussed with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock the “need for decisive action” in response to North Korean involvement in the war with Russia. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korea’s foreign minister in the Kremlin on Monday at a time of mounting concern in the West that North Korean soldiers are about to enter the Ukraine war on Moscow’s side. – Reuters

Stepan Stepanenko and  John Holmes write: If Russia’s influence within Hamas is indeed more substantial than widely recognized, this necessitates a reassessment of existing policies and perceptions. For Israel, understanding the depth and nature of Hamas’s external support is crucial for formulating effective countermeasures. For the international community, acknowledging Russia’s potential involvement is essential for crafting comprehensive diplomatic solutions. – Jerusalem Post

Tom Rogan writes: Nevertheless, Russia’s attempt to set civilian aircraft on fire as they transit the Atlantic Ocean is clearly a major escalation. The U.S. should respond by openly authorizing Ukraine to use long-range U.S. weapons against military targets inside Russia. If not, Putin will sense that he has the political space to continue this covert war in tandem with his overt war in Ukraine. That would be a problem. Presentation of weakness is to Putin what blood in the water is to a shark. – Washington Examiner

Mark N. Katz writes: Putin, though, may not worry about risk-averse NATO governments getting more involved in the Ukraine war. What should concern him, though, is what dependence on North Korean troops does to Russia’s image. Moscow’s dependence on Iran for armed drones and ballistic missiles as well as North Korea for artillery shells and now soldiers hardly enhances Russia’s image as a great power.  As the war goes on, will Russia become even more dependent on others for arms and troops? […]The arrival of North Korean troops in Ukraine does not bode well either for Ukraine or for its Western backers. But it might not work out all that well for Russia or North Korea either. – National Interest

Mikhail Troitskiy writes: The readiness to acknowledge North Korean deployments instead of backtracking on a risky operation may indicate Russia’s unwillingness to seek negotiated solutions, contrary to the Kremlin’s claims of being open to ending the war through negotiations. […] Moscow may soon realize again the difficulty of reversing escalatory choices that involve smaller allies and considerations of status and prestige. – National Interest

Korean Peninsula

By recently sending thousands of troops to the Russian front lines, Kim has opened a new chapter for his cash-strapped regime. The move thrusts the “Hermit Kingdom” into global affairs in a way that it has shunned since the 1950-53 Korean War. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong Un, said military drills by the United States, Japan and South Korea justify North Korea’s nuclear reinforcement, state media KCNA said on Tuesday. – Reuters

North Korea fired at least seven short-range ballistic missiles on Tuesday off its east coast, Japan’s defence minister said, soon after Pyongyang condemned military drills by its rivals and just hours before the U.S. election. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department has approved the possible sale of Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft to South Korea for an estimated $4.92 billion, the Pentagon said on Monday. – Reuters

The Pentagon said on Monday that there were at least 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk but could not corroborate reports that they were engaged in combat. – Reuters

The United States on Monday called out Russia and China at the United Nations Security Council for “shamelessly protecting” and emboldening North Korea to further violate U.N. sanctions as Pyongyang pledged to accelerate building up its “nuclear force.” – Reuters

More than 10,000 North Korean troops have arrived in Russia to support its war against Ukraine, with a “significant number” in the frontline areas including Kursk, South Korea’s defence ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Asia

Two Chinese nationals were shot at and injured on Tuesday in Pakistan’s commercial hub of Karachi, police and hospital officials said, after a string of attacks that spurred Beijing to demand tougher security for its citizens. – Reuters

Pakistan on Monday passed an amendment to a law that will extend the terms of the heads of the armed forces to five years from three, in a rowdy parliamentary session opposed by jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party. – Reuters

India’s Supreme Court set aside on Tuesday an order that banned Islamic schools in the country’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, providing a breather to thousands of students and teachers. – Reuters

The prime ministers of India and Canada condemned violence that broke out on Sunday at a Hindu temple near Toronto at a time of escalating diplomatic tensions between the countries. – Reuters

A dramatic political rupture between India and Canada has cast a spotlight on a top confidante of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to lead the world’s most populous country. – Bloomberg

Pakistan’s parliament voted to extend the job tenures of the heads of the country’s armed forces to five years from three amid a spike in militant violence. – Bloomberg

Europe

Moldovan President Maia Sandu promised to ring the changes after narrowly winning a runoff presidential vote, an acknowledgement of the fragile foothold her pro-Western forces have ahead of a parliamentary election next summer. – Reuters

Russia on Tuesday denounced Moldova’s weekend election as unfair and said it did not see the winner, Maia Sandu, as the legitimate president of the country. – Reuters

Several thousand Georgian demonstrators took to the streets on Monday to protest against what they say was fraud in last month’s parliamentary election, in which the ruling Georgian Dream party, seen as increasingly pro-Russian, claimed victory. – Reuters

German police have arrested eight suspected members of a right-wing militant group driven by racist ideology and conspiracy theories who had been training in warfare for the downfall of the modern German state, prosecutors said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Poland plans to invest 3 billion zlotys ($750 million) to boost ammunition production, according to a bill published late on Monday, aiming to ensure it has sufficient supplies in the event of an attack from Russia. – Reuters

Moldovans living abroad voted in record numbers in a presidential runoff that secured victory for pro-Western President Maia Sandu, in a pivotal race that pitted her against a Russia-friendly opponent amid ongoing claims of Russian interference, voter fraud, and intimidation. – Associated Press

Belarus’ election commission on Monday allowed seven politicians loyal to President Alexander Lukashenko to start collecting signatures to run against him in January’s election, in an apparent bid to create a semblance of competition to the longtime authoritarian ruler. – Associated Press

Pro-Palestinian supporters staged a protest Monday at the French soccer federation to call for the cancellation of a Nations League game between France and Israel this month. – Associated Press

Prime Minister Viktor Orban got the green light from Hungary’s parliament to extend his rule-by-decree by another six months, keeping the centralization of power that set Budapest on a collision course with the European Union. – Bloomberg

The European Commission picked a consortium led by SES, Eutelsat and Hispasat to deploy the IRIS² satellite constellation, as the European Union seeks its own satellite broadband system to ensure the bloc isn’t reliant on foreign entities such as Elon Musk’s Starlink. – Defense News

Editorial: Moldova’s democracy will face another test in parliamentary elections next year, and the Kremlin will no doubt try to influence the result again. Moldova’s fate is also highly dependent on how the Ukraine war ends. A victory for Russia would make it harder for small Moldova to steer a Western course. But Sunday’s vote shows clearly that the Moldovan majority wants a future in free Europe. – Wall Street Journal

Zdeněk Rod and Michael Jarkovský write: Europe should focus on expanding its ammunition production capabilities and strengthening its defense industrial base. While there’s no shortage of ammunition for Ukraine on the global market, an increase in European production would drive down costs by adhering to basic supply and demand principles. By producing more shells domestically, European nations can optimize their spending, ultimately enabling them to supply Ukraine with a greater volume of artillery rounds. – Defense News

The Americas

Canada announced regulations on Monday to cap carbon emissions from its oil and gas industry and reduce the release of greenhouse gases, a move bitterly opposed by the energy industry and met with lukewarm support from some environmentalists who say the rules are not strict enough. – New York Times

U.S. authorities have arrested a Turkish man who they allege was trying to violate sanctions by transporting oil from Venezuela, the Justice Department said on Monday. – Reuters

Brazilian authorities are preparing to remove illegal gold miners from an Indigenous reservation in the Amazon rainforest that has been criss-crossed with informal airstrips and contaminated with mercury, an official said. – Reuters

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump warned on Monday that, if elected, he would punish Mexico and China with tariffs unless both governments moved to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. – Reuters

Mexico’s National Guard fatally shot two Colombians and wounded four others in what the Defense Department claimed was a confrontation near the U.S. border. – Associated Press

President Javier Milei is promising to conduct a deep purge of Argentina’s diplomatic ranks after the nation voted to condemn the US embargo on Cuba at the United Nations. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

The Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s daughter Bernice on Monday condemned an artificially generated video of the Civil Rights leader praising former president Donald Trump, as both parties court Black voters ahead of Election Day. – Washington Post

For a man with a $10 million price on his head, Russian military blogger Mikhail Zvinchuk is doing little to hide his whereabouts or identity. Last month, the State Department offered a $10 million reward for information on “Russian malign influencers seeking to interfere in the U.S. elections.” – Washington Post

Russian groups and other foreign adversaries have unleashed an extensive disinformation campaign to undermine confidence in the election, and senior U.S. officials are worried that Moscow’s efforts could continue to stoke political discord until the election is certified in January. – New York Times

U.S. cybersecurity agency director Jen Easterly said on Monday that her department has not seen evidence of any activity that could directly impact the outcome of the election, despite a surge in disinformation. – Reuters

Seven French families have filed a lawsuit against social media giant TikTok, accusing the platform of exposing their adolescent children to harmful content that led to two of them taking their own lives at 15, their lawyer said on Monday. – Reuters

South Korea has ordered Facebook owner Meta Platforms to pay 21.62 billion won ($15.67 million) in fines after finding it had collected sensitive user data and given it to advertisers without a legal basis, Seoul’s data protection agency said. – Reuters

Meta Platforms will extend its ban on new political ads after the U.S. election, maintaining the suspension until later this week, the Facebook-parent said in a blog post on Monday. – Reuters

Long War

The father of a French pupil whose account of the use of caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad in a class on free speech led to the teacher’s brutal murder went on trial on Monday, accused of association with a terrorist network. – Reuters

A Kenyan man was convicted Monday of plotting a 9/11-style attack on a U.S. building on behalf of the terrorist organization al-Shabab. – Associated Press

U.S. forces in the Middle East have killed 163 Islamic State group militants and captured another 33 in dozens of operations in Iraq and Syria since late August, U.S. Central Command said in a Monday statement. – The Hill