Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli police said they had detained the country’s former top military lawyer on suspicion of “serious criminal offenses” and for her role in leaking a video at the center of a case of alleged abuse against Palestinian prisoners. – Wall Street Journal

For almost two decades, Turkey has cultivated a relationship with Hamas — to the chagrin of some other countries in the region — but it won effusive praise from President Donald Trump in recent weeks for using those connections to help pressure the Palestinian militant group into reaching a Gaza ceasefire deal with Israel. – Washington Post

Israeli fire killed three Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Monday, north of the southern city of Rafah, which remains under Israeli control, according to local health authorities, further testing the fragile U.S.-backed ceasefire. – Reuters

Israel handed over the bodies of 45 Palestinians on Monday, the Red Cross said, a day after militants returned the remains of three hostages. Israeli officials identified the three as soldiers who were killed in the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023 that triggered the war in Gaza. – Associated Press

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard made a surprise visit to the U.S.-operated Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) as American forces work on the planning and implementation of phase two in the ceasefire deal. – Fox News

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar will begin a state visit to India on Tuesday. During his trip, Sa’ar is scheduled to meet with senior Indian officials, including his counterpart Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF will not actively block any deal to allow Hamas terrorists to move from the buffer zone on the Israeli side of Gaza’s Yellow Line to the areas of the strip under Hamas’s control, The Jerusalem Post learned on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

US President Donald Trump’s administration is urging Israel to allow foreign journalists into Gaza now that a ceasefire is in place, two US officials told The Times of Israel on Monday. – Times of Israel

Ophir Falk writes: By shattering the cycle that had shielded Hamas for two decades, the hostage-taking ironically gave Israel the time and space it needed to degrade the terrorist organization drastically and strike a deal that dictates Hamas’s dismantlement. The job isn’t finished, but Israel stands stronger than ever, having risen from one of its darkest hours to one of its brightest. The lesson for genocidal organizations should be clear: Hostage-taking can backfire, leading to terrorists’ destruction. – Wall Street Journal

Eric Alter and Nickolay Mladenov write: The next five years should focus on establishing multilateral mechanisms to coordinate aid, develop energy interconnections, and enhance crisis response capabilities. That means elevating the accords from bilateral normalization to a regional framework: linking economic zones, climate finance, and digital trade. Proposals for shared early-warning systems may sound ambitious, but they express a logic already in motion: peace is most durable when it produces shared value. Equally important is a narrative shift. The accords were born of pragmatism; their future depends on inclusion. The Arab and Israeli publics need to see benefits that extend beyond diplomacy, such as scholarship exchanges, small-business partnerships, and climate-adaptation projects that enhance daily life. In this sense, the Abraham Accords are a test of whether the Middle East can learn to cooperate without aiming at perfection. – The National Interest

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine will set up offices for arms exports and joint weapons production in Berlin and Copenhagen this year, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday. Kyiv is scaling up its burgeoning domestic defense industry with help from its Western partners as it fends off Russian forces in its fourth year of war with Moscow. – Reuters

Russia said on Monday its troops had advanced in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a transport and logistics hub that they have been trying to capture for over a year, but Ukraine said its forces were holding on. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant deep inside Russia, causing a partial collapse of a water-treatment facility but no injuries, regional authorities said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine is showing “remarkable commitment” to joining the EU, but must reverse recent negative trends in the fight against corruption and accelerate rule of law reforms, the European Commission said in a draft text seen by Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Ukraine has received more U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems to help it counter Russia’s daily barrages, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, as Russian drones killed a man and injured five of his family members, including two children, in the latest nighttime attack. – Associated Press

Thomas Kent writes: Not so now. Trump, moreover, is not the only one eying Putin’s nuclear threats with growing skepticism. “Irresponsible rhetoric” from Russia about nuclear war “is not going to deter our support for Ukraine,” British prime minister Keir Starmer said last November. Sweden joined NATO on March 24, 2024, despite warnings from the Russian Embassy that it would become a “legitimate target for Russia’s retaliatory measures.” And Germany, where fears of Russian nukes have long been strong, continues to press ahead with its rearmament. To be sure, Putin can be counted on to continue his nuclear rhetoric. But Western leaders seem set on making policy based on realities on the ground, rather than the Kremlin’s attempts at nuclear intimidation. – The National Interest

Middle East & North Africa

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has invited Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to Germany to discuss deporting Syrian citizens with criminal records in Germany, the German leader said on Monday. – Reuters

Iraq has pledged to bring all weapons under the control of the state, but that will not work so long as there is a U.S.-led coalition in the country that some Iraqi factions view as an occupying force, the prime minister said on Monday. – Reuters

Turkish nationalist party leader Devlet Bahceli, who is President Tayyip Erdogan’s main parliamentary ally, said on Tuesday that it could be beneficial to release from prison the former pro-Kurdish party leader Selahattin Demirtas. – Reuters

The family of South Sudanese political commentator Samuel Peter Oyay, whose writings are often critical of the government, say they are concerned for his safety after his arrest over a month ago in the United Arab Emirates. – Associated Press

A Libyan delegation in Lebanon made progress in talks Monday with judicial officials over the possible release of late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi ‘s son, who has been jailed without trial in Lebanon for a decade. – Associated Press

Virginia MacArthur writes: More broadly, GenZ 212 could inspire other youth across the region, even as far as Iran. Its example will influence how other North African governments interpret their social contracts, whether trust can still be earned through controlled reform, or whether a new generation will demand something faster, fairer, and less deferential. In a country long praised as proof that gradualism guarantees stability, GenZ 212 exposes its limits: legitimacy now depends not on the promise of change, but on its pace. – Washington Institute

Fatima Abo Alasrar writes: Yemenis understand what comes next. They watched international engagement legitimize Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, diplomatic normalization that empowered militias while entire populations were left to live under their rule. The same pattern has been playing out with the Houthis for years. But when the talking ends and the international community moves on, it will be Yemenis who remain, living under a militia the world helped entrench. – Middle East Institute

China

Greenlighting the export of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips would be a seismic policy shift potentially giving China, the U.S.’s biggest geopolitical competitor, a technological accelerant. Huang—who speaks to Trump often—has lobbied relentlessly to maintain access to the Chinese market. – Wall Street Journal

China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, demonstrating that China’s manufacturing dominance will not be easily slowed. Chinese exports are on track to reach another record this year. – New York Times

President Trump has used tariffs to try to reduce American reliance on Chinese exports and prevent China’s factory overcapacity from swamping the U.S. economy. But his effort has hit an obstacle: Beijing was already well on its way to weaning its economy from the United States. – New York Times 

China’s foreign ministry has dismissed safety concerns raised by Taiwan about its hosting of the APEC summit next year, but said the island’s participation rests on its compliance with established practice and the “one China” principle. – Reuters

Hong Kong’s High Court rejected an application by pro-democracy activist Chow Hang-tung on Monday to terminate a subversion trial involving herself and a group that once organised commemorations of the Tiananmen crackdown. – Reuters

China will extend its visa-free entry policy for 45 countries including France, Germany and Spain to December 31, 2026 and expand the scheme to cover Sweden, effective November 10, the foreign ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

China called on the US to avoid four sensitive issues so a trade truce sealed between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can hold, highlighting the broad array of disagreements that will test ties. – Bloomberg 

Thomas L. Friedman writes: More broadly, the rest of the world is simply not going to let China take all the manufacturing jobs, especially as A.I. starts to cut increasingly into blue-collar and white-collar work. China is courting a real global backlash. Given how important the U.S.-China relationship has been for sustaining the relative Great Power peace and prosperity of the world since the late 1970s, Washington and Beijing need a quiet long-term dialogue — not a noisy long-term trade war in which both sides lose. If we really are heading for a divorce in this relationship, oh my goodness, we will miss it when it’s gone. – New York Times

Europe

British authorities are investigating whether a man charged with attempting to kill 10 people on a London-bound train Saturday night was also involved in several episodes the day before, including an attack on a 14-year-old and two instances of wielding a knife in public. – New York Times 

British finance minister Rachel Reeves will say on Tuesday that she intends to focus on “fairness and opportunity” in her second annual budget due on November 26, as reports swirl about where she will raise taxes to keep her budget goals on track. – Reuters

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that talks over the Dutch chipmaker Nexperia, which involve the Netherlands and China, were advancing. – Reuters

Populist Czech billionaire Andrej Babis’ ANO party signed a coalition deal with fringe right-wing allies on Monday, moving closer to regaining power after winning a vote on promises of hiking spending and opposing EU climate and migration policies. – Reuters

Executives at two of Europe’s top gas suppliers, ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy, on Monday warned they could stop doing business with the European Union if it does not significantly loosen a sustainability law that could impose fines of 5% of their global revenue. – Reuters

NATO member Romania signed an agreement Monday with German defense company Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder factory in central Romania, as Europe races to rearm itself in the face of an increasingly provocative Russia. – Associated Press 

A Latvian citizen was arrested for allegedly collecting information about the Baltic country’s defense sector for Russia’s shadowy GRU military intelligence service, authorities said Monday. – Associated Press

Poland plans to start building a national anti-drone system within months, without waiting for the European Union’s “drone wall” initiative, the country’s deputy defense minister said. – Bloomberg 

The Americas

Peru has decided to break off diplomatic relations with Mexico, the Andean nation’s foreign minister said on Monday, after Peru’s former prime minister holed up in the Mexican embassy in the country to request asylum. – Reuters

Brazil has established new rules raising the minimum capital required for financial institutions to operate in the country to 9.1 billion reais ($1.68 billion) from 5.2 billion reais, the Central Bank of Brazil said on Monday. – Reuters

EU climate ministers will make a last-ditch attempt to pass a new climate change target on Tuesday, in an effort to avoid going to the U.N. COP30 summit in Brazil empty-handed. – Reuters

Brazilian police backed by Interpol have destroyed hundreds of dredges used in illegal gold mining along the Madeira River, in one of the biggest coordinated crackdowns yet on criminal networks operating across the Amazon Basin. – Associated Press

Javier Corrales writes: And even if a member of the opposition were to replace Mr. Maduro, it would not necessarily yield democracy in Venezuela. A new state apparatus with institutional checks and balances would effectively need to be built from scratch — or the country’s new political winners could well recreate the deeply corrupt, coercive and unequal system that has so successfully entrenched Mr. Maduro’s rule. Mr. Maduro may be hated by most of society and disliked by many of his associates. But he has proved a canny architect of his regime — one in which the only people who can truly tear down the system are the ones with the most to lose from its demise. – New York Times

Harlan Ullman writes: While some Americans agree with the strikes on what are believed to be drug-runners, there is no due process nor any clear rationale why that is vital in a nation supposedly dedicated to the rule of law. In a bizarre way, the administration may be recreating the Abu Ghraib scandal that plagued George W. Bush. So please, President Trump, do not invade Venezuela or continue this drug war without telling us why. – The Hill

Michael O’Hanlon and Caitlin Talmadge write: The simple reality is that dictators prioritize staying in power, and they tend to excel at it. Bombing their territory neither encourages the oppressed people to rise in a revolution nor incentivizes elites to turn on the regime in a coup. Modern airpower and missiles can indeed cause immense destruction to enemy targets—but usually only after years of effort. Even then, success on the ground is ensured in conjunction with substantial allied or US armed forces, a condition that does not hold in Venezuela’s case. President Trump has long argued against America’s forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He needs to be careful not to get drawn into a similar situation in the Western Hemisphere. – The National Interest

United States

President Trump, who promised to use his business savvy to bring down everyday costs, is facing discontent over his handling of the economy and inflation. Democrats see an opportunity. Tuesday’s elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, and for mayor in New York City, will test whether Trump’s low economic ratings can help Democrats make the case that they have the better plans to lower the cost of living. – Wall Street Journal

Federal prosecutors have charged two men tied to what they allege was an ISIS-inspired plot based out of Michigan to carry out an attack in the U.S., according to a court document made public on Monday. – Reuters

The Commerce Department and Pentagon on Monday pledged financing and potential equity stakes in a domestic producer of rare-earth magnets that are at the center of a trade war with China, the world’s dominant supplier. – Bloomberg

Defense

A new U.S. Army directive orders commanders to act within hours — not days — when a soldier goes missing, giving them three hours to classify a service member as “absent-unknown” and eight hours to notify the soldier’s family once the absence is discovered. – Defense News

The Navy now has an app that allows sailors, their families and the general public to read Navy policies. The Navy created MyNavyHR app, available for Android and Apple phones, over the past two months and officially released it Oct. 22. – USNI News

In the Army’s latest step to beef up its counter-unmanned aerial system capabilities, the service has formally asked industry for ideas to field high-energy laser systems capable of blasting small- to medium-sized drones out of the sky. – Breaking Defense

The U.S. military base in Maryland where Naval Air Systems Command is headquartered could soon be equipped with an asset to help experts monitor, understand and reduce noise impacts from supersonic flight tests conducted in restricted airspace over the Chesapeake Bay and nearby waters. – Defensescoop

Federal authorities arrested a 28-year-old Army National Guardsman for allegedly attempting to send a military radio to Russia and photograph Fort Riley, Kansas, for who he believed were Russian agents. – Military Times