Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli forces pushed across Gaza and in from the Mediterranean coast Thursday, cutting the enclave in two and isolating densely populated urban areas in the north where armored and infantry units were battling Hamas militants, said the Israeli military and the United Nations. – Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv on Friday to push the Israeli government to protect civilians during their assault on Gaza, as the Biden administration continues to work for the release of Hamas-held hostages and to enable U.S. citizens trapped inside the narrow territory to escape into Egypt amid growing concerns in Washington that the Israeli strategy may be undermining its own security interests. – Washington Post

Three weeks after the bloody massacre that killed 1,400 people in southern Israel, the cramped yellow building that houses Israel’s government forensic laboratory is still inundated with unidentified remains. The bags line the morgue hallway, on gurneys and the floor, spilling into an outdoor courtyard. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military is flying surveillance drones over the Gaza Strip, according to two Defense Department officials and an analysis by The New York Times. The officials said the drones were being used to aid in hostage recovery efforts, indicating that the U.S. is more involved than previously known. – New York Times

While the world’s attention has fallen on Gaza, violence in the West Bank, a much bigger and more complex Palestinian-majority area, is hitting its highest levels in years. – New York Times

 U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday said the United States would not seek to impose any conditions on the support it gives Israel to defend itself in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks by militant group Hamas. – Reuters

Israel said on Thursday it would proceed with a tax revenue transfer to the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the occupied West Bank but would withhold funds bound for Hamas-ruled Gaza, where the PA helps cover public sector wages and pay for electricity. – Reuters

A group of independent United Nations experts called on Thursday for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, saying time was running out for Palestinians there who are at “grave risk of genocide”. – Reuters

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday unveiled a new website documenting the Hamas attacks of October 7 in an effort to tamp down misinformation in some left-wing circles about the extent of the catastrophe and “make sure that the world knows what happened.” – New York Sun

Hamas is ready to have a “complete compromise” in order to carry out a prisoner exchange, according to Hamas official Ghazi Hamad who spoke on Thursday with NBC correspondent Matt Bradley. – Jerusalem Post

The commander of Hamas’s Sabra Tel al-Hawa Battalion was killed in an airstrike Thursday night, the IDF and Israel Security Service (Shin Bet) announced in a joint statement on Friday morning. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF published the names of four soldiers who fell in battle in the northern Gaza Strip on Friday morning, bringing the total of IDF soldiers killed in combat in the ground offensive in Gaza to 23. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Fact is, Biden’s only saying “pause” because he doesn’t dare say “ceasefire” — yet. He’s too recently on record as explaining (correctly) that any ceasefire is simply a gift to Hamas, allowing it a breather amid the IDF’s assault. Here’s an idea, Mr. President: Give up on your domestic political goals for the duration of this war. – New York Post

Peggy Noonan writes: Even if this person isn’t “much better,” an unknown variable might shake this up in a way that benefits civilization. The U.S. in its support of Israel is tied to this discredited man in a way that doesn’t help. It is a mistake for Israel, for its Knesset, to allow him to continue. – Wall Street Journal

Thomas L. Friedman writes: That’s why today America must help Israel and Ukraine to blunt the Russia-Iran axis in their theaters. But the morning after their wars, Israel and Ukraine are going to have to face some very hard choices. Because while we may write big checks to both, they will not be blank checks. Each will come with an expiry date and require some very painful political decisions very soon — as they should. – New York Times

Marc Champion writes: “Killing and wounding civilians is not only a moral and legal issue. It is a strategic one.’’ It’s a brutal calculation, but the more Palestinian civilians Israel’s bombs kill, the less time the IDF will likely get to finish off Hamas. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: IDF ground elements will need support from unguided munitions amid civilians (it’s unclear how many guided munitions the IDF retains — it must save some in case the Lebanese Hezbollah joins the war), leading to further international pressure on the Israeli government. They will need to impose and take casualties in door-to-door fighting. They will need to endure. And they will need to do so as international opinion slowly and unfairly shifts in Hamas’s favor – Washington Examiner

Robert Satloff and Dennis Ross write: For the antisemites of this world, none of this will matter. But winning their support is not the goal of Israel’s information battle. The goal is to win the proverbial hearts and minds of millions who need a reason to give Israel the benefit of the doubt. Success in this effort will give Israel the time and space to achieve victory over Hamas. – The Hill

Ben Samuels writes: Signs are heading toward Biden acknowledging the rapidly shrinking runway he has tried to provide Israel following the attack. The question now remains: what will come first — Biden’s acknowledgement of this, or the war spiraling out even further? – Haaretz

Russia & Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine, launched the following month, bared the stark limits of Russian power in what Moscow considered its own backyard. Spooked by the bloodshed in Ukraine and by the international sanctions imposed on Russia, its neighbors and allies now are busy diversifying their relationships, hedging against Moscow by deepening ties with China and the West. – Wall Street Journal

The commander of Ukraine’s armed forces says the war with Russia is at risk of becoming a stalemate and Kyiv would need a major upgrade in weapons and technological capabilities to regain the initiative. – Wall Street Journal

A false rumor about the resettlement of Israelis in Dagestan that incited a violent mob at its capital airport Sunday was shared online for longer and more widely than previously reported, according to a New York Times analysis of Telegram posts. – New York Times

David Ignatius writes: But the Russians keep coming. And unless the U.S. Congress gets its act together, this will be a very cold and bitter winter in Kyiv. – Washington Post

Lee Hockstader writes: But the Russian dictator is playing the long game, attuned to every fissure in the transatlantic alliance. And the greatest potential crack of all — a potential election victory for Donald Trump, who is no friend of Ukraine’s — looms just 12 months off. That, for Putin, could be game, set and match. – Washington Post

Turkey

Turkey is ready to take in cancer patients from Gaza’s Turkish-Palestinian Friendship hospital, which went out of service on Wednesday after running out of fuel, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said on Thursday. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: After Erdogan’s outburst the White House, Pentagon, and State Department should not only publicly take F-16s off the table for Erdogan’s Turkey, but also announce that until further notice, any U.S. assistance to Turkey will be limited to non-lethal goods, like blankets or perhaps medical kits. Turkey may complain, but non-lethal goods will not contribute to widening war in the Eastern Mediterranean, a goal that by Erdogan’s own admission could come at any time. – 19FortyFive

Sinem Adar and Hamidreza Azizi write: Overall, Iranian and Turkish interests seem to be increasingly aligning, particularly in their united front against Israel’s actions toward Hamas and in opposing the resurgence of a U.S.-led regional order. However, their historical competition for strategic dominance in areas like Iraq and Syria, coupled with the distinct forms of revisionism that the AKP and Iranian leadership champion on the global stage, suggests that any emerging alliance between them might remain tenuous and susceptible to strains in the mid to long term. – Middle East Institute

Gulf States

Gulf Arab power the United Arab Emirates warned on Friday that there was a real risk of a regional spillover from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, adding that it was working “relentlessly” to secure a humanitarian ceasefire. – Reuters

Bahrain said on Thursday that the Gulf state’s ambassador to Israel had returned home and the Israeli ambassador in Manama had left the kingdom “a while ago”, confirming an earlier statement by parliament linked to the Israel-Hamas conflict. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates said on Thursday it planned to treat 1,000 Palestinian children from Gaza, without saying how they would leave the Israeli-besieged enclave for the Gulf state. – Reuters

The US targeted several companies based in the United Arab Emirates in the latest round of Russia-related sanctions as it seeks to up the pressure on the Gulf country to curb ties with Moscow. – Bloomberg

Experts told Breaking Defense that Al Nuaimi’s comments likely reflect the apparent view by the Emirates that the economic and security benefits of the Abraham Accords, including those afforded by Israel’s close ally in Washington, will endure the current crisis. The UAE, more so than most any other nation in the region, had embraced warming relations with Israel, including interest in Israeli-made defense systems. – Breaking Defense

Nickolay Mladenov and Narayanappa Janardhan write: Grasping the Middle East’s perception of global affairs, expanding initiatives like the Abraham Accords, endorsing niche collaboration frameworks such as the I2U2 (India, Israel, the UAE and the US), and broadening alliances by incorporating countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Japan could be initial steps in rejuvenating the region’s ties with Washington. As the Gulf nations chart new courses in a shifting geopolitical landscape, it’s imperative for US policymakers to recalibrate their strategies in kind. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

North Korea will increase its military deterrent to ensure its security against a U.S. nuclear arsenal aimed at it, its state media reported on Friday, as it criticised the United States for a recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. – Reuters

North Korea confirmed on Friday it is shutting some embassies in an effort to “rearrange its diplomatic capacity efficiently”, closures that South Korea says indicates the North is struggling under the burden of sanctions. – Reuters

Leader Kim Jong Un is launching his biggest scaling back of North Korea’s embassies, likely betting he can earn a larger payout in arms deals with the Kremlin than through missions suspected of sending him a cut of their alleged crimes. – Bloomberg

After hitting statutory limits on import-export lending, South Korea is gathering local banks to help Poland buy $22 billion worth of weapons in Seoul’s largest arms sale, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

That’s all part of what international authorities say is a growing mountain of evidence that shows Beijing is helping cash-strapped North Korea evade a broad range of international sanctions designed to hamper Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, according to an Associated Press review of United Nations reports, court records and interviews with experts. – Associated Press

Asia

The United States remains focused on the Indo-Pacific despite other global challenges, top U.S. diplomats said on Thursday as Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to go to Asia after a Middle East trip amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. – Reuters

Chinese and Southeast Asian diplomats renewed a vow to finalize a nonaggression pact for the South China Sea in three years, two regional diplomats said Thursday. The pledge came during a meeting last week in Beijing, where they expressed alarm over recent confrontations in the disputed waters. – Associated Press

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrived in the Philippines on Friday for a two-day official visit aimed at boosting defence and security ties at a time of heightened tension in Philippines-China relations. – Reuters

China called for a halt to fighting flaring along its border with Myanmar, where a rebel group says it seized several towns, including a trade hub. – Bloomberg

President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that France and Uzbekistan would develop what he described as a strategic partnership, as the two countries discussed projects in agriculture and uranium. – Reuters

Anna Ohanyan writes: Such conditions are present today in the nexus of interests knotted in Armenia’s south, and the outcome will have global implications for the shape of Eurasia for decades to come. But the opportunity for regional, rules-based integration in the South Caucasus is also real, and it, too, can be realized, if Armenia’s Syunik region is protected. Connectivity on Western terms in Eurasia is now contingent on Armenia’s territorial integrity. – Foreign Policy

Africa

King Charles and Queen Camilla on Thursday watched UK-trained Kenyan marines stage a mock beach landing on the third day of their official visit to the former British colony. After two days in the capital Nairobi, Charles and Camilla travelled to the port city of Mombasa, the original capital of British East Africa. – Reuters

Africa wants the U.S. Congress to renew its flagship trade programme for the continent for at least 10 years, the African Union’s top trade official said on Thursday, adding that any modifications to the initiative should only be considered later. – Reuters

The US aims to ensure that its preferential trade pact with Africa is replaced without interruption when it expires in two-year’s time, while bringing it up to date. – Bloomberg

Rwanda announced Thursday that it will allow Africans to travel visa-free to the country, becoming the latest nation on the continent to announce such a measure aimed at boosting free movement of people and trade to rival Europe’s Schengen zone. – Associated Press

Security forces and armed groups are committing war crimes against civilians in Africa’s Sahel region, where extremists and rebels are increasingly fighting to exert dominance and control resources in communities, according to new reports from two rights groups. – Associated Press

United States

The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed a Republican plan to provide $14.3 billion in aid to Israel and cut funding of the Internal Revenue Service, despite Democrats’ insistence it has no future in the Senate and the White House’s promise of a veto. – Reuters

Garry Kasparov writes: Whether fighting anti-Semitism at home or standing up to terror and invasion abroad, America’s leaders and the American people must realize their way of life is under attack. You can lose a war you refuse to acknowledge exists. In fact, you are sure to. – Wall Street Journal

Lorenzo Vidino writes: While some of what Hamas does on American soil is constitutionally protected, it is all in the service of its morally repugnant agenda. If, as President Biden said, “Hamas is ISIS,” there should be no space in politics, academia or the media for those who spin the terrorists’ talking points. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The U.S. Department of Defense released a new strategy on its use of data analytics and artificial intelligence as it pushes for additional investment in AI, advanced pattern recognition and autonomous technologies including drones. – Defense News

Boeing expects to deliver the U.S. Air Force’s next F-15EX Eagle II fighter by the end of November, nearly a year after the company originally planned and four months behind its revised estimate. – Defense News

The US Army is on the hunt for an already-in-production armor busting missile that it can quickly field to infantry soldiers on the move in smaller, lighter vehicles, according to a new notice. – Breaking Defense