Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

U.S. officials said they would sanction two Iranians and seek the prosecution of two others for the “SamSam” cyberattacks that allegedly hacked into servers at hospitals, schools, ports and other institutions, then demanded bitcoin as ransom and laundered the money through online exchanges. – Wall Street Journal

Iran should increase its military capability and readiness to ward off enemies, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday in a meeting with Iranian navy commanders, according to Khamenei’s official website. – Reuters

France and Germany are to take joint responsibility for an EU-Iran trade mechanism to minimize the risk of U.S. punishment but few now believe it will cover oil sales, heightening fears for the fate of the landmark international nuclear deal with Iran. – Reuters

Intelligence sources in the West have identified improvements and technological progress in Iran’s array of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Kan 11 News reported on Wednesday. – Arutz Sheva

Canada on Wednesday joined in on the condemnations of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who referred to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” last week. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: The Europeans are falling over themselves to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. That will be difficult with the reimposition of sanctions that took effect November 5—a number of major firms have pulled out of Iran—but they’re trying anyway. – Weekly Standard

Alex Vatanka writes: For the average Iranian, the hope is not about overturning decades of hostility toward the United States overnight. Rather, the hope is that some much-delayed policy introspection can start sooner rather than later, especially if the country grapples with some historical realities about why this state of affairs between Iran and the United States exists in the first place. – Foreign Policy

Israel

The U.S. ambassador to Israel called on Palestinians on Wednesday to free an American-Palestinian who, the envoy said, was detained for “selling land to a Jew”, apparently violating a long-standing Palestinian ban on selling land to Israelis. – Reuters

CNN commentator Marc Lamont Hill, in a Wednesday speech to the United Nations, called for violent resistance against Israel and advocated expanding Palestine “from the river to the sea,” a phrase used by those who believe that Israel should be eliminated. – Washington Examiner

Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations has urged European Union countries to get behind a US-sponsored resolution at the UN General Assembly that condemns Hamas for its missile attacks against the Jewish state. – Algemeiner

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh wrote a letter to the United Nations General Assembly president, Maria Fernanda Spinosa, on Wednesday condemning recent proposals in the UN against Hamas by the United States and Israel, and appealing for assistance to counter “the American efforts to condemn the resistance.” – Jerusalem Post

Airbnb is facing at least three legal cases in the United States over its decision earlier this month to drop settlement listings in the West Bank. On Monday, an Israeli company Bibliotechnical Blue & White Ltd. located in the Gush Etzion region of the West Bank filed a complaint against Airbnb for discrimination with the American Arbitration Association in New York. – Jerusalem Post

Since his election, however, those concerns were largely put to rest, as Trump took a number of steps that have been extremely good for Israel. […]Jerusalem wants the US to remain in the region, but it wants the US to do so because this is good for the US – even if it no longer is dependent on Mideast oil – not only because it is also good for Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The Irish senate on Wednesday night advanced a bill to criminalize business transactions with Israeli entities and citizens in east Jerusalem and Area C of the West Bank. – Jerusalem Post

The top leader of the Hamas terror group said Wednesday he has received an invitation to make an official visit to Moscow, as Russia steps up its efforts to become involved in mediating the Israel-Palestinian conflict. – Associated Press

Evelyn Gordon writes: The International Criminal Court’s blatant anti-Israel bias is no secret. Just two months ago, I wrote about its decision to launch an unprecedented fishing expedition against Israel. Nevertheless, its latest decision raises bias to an art form—the art in question being farce. It also completely destroys any pretensions the court has left of serving its original purpose: Ensuring that the world’s worst crimes don’t go unpunished. – Commentary Magazine

Middle East & North Africa

The Republican-led Senate dealt a rebuke Wednesday to the White House, voting to advance a measure to withdraw U.S. support for Saudi-led forces in Yemen and defying top administration officials who just hours earlier had urged the lawmakers to do the opposite. – Wall Street Journal

Lebanon’s General Security director praised terrorism during a conference that was supposed to discuss the defeat of terrorism in the Middle East and Africa. Speaking to representatives from a dozen African countries Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim reportedly praised Hezbollah’s “resistance” and distinguished its terrorism from other forms of terror. – Jerusalem Post

Ali Fadli writes: Qatar’s influence is not new, but now is an important time to analyze how the United States can stand to benefit from this soft power. Specifically, Qatar has proven in the past to be an effective mediator between the United States and groups that Washington is unwilling to meet with directly. […]Given recent shifts in power within the region, now is the ideal time for the U.S. administration to clarify its position and take advantage of what Doha has to offer. – Washington Institute

China

China and the U.S. are on the brink of a new Cold War, with tensions over trade at the top of the agenda. […]That the two countries arrived at this point, despite years of tension, wasn’t inevitable. Rather, it played out this year in the corridors of power in Washington and Beijing, with both maneuvering—and often miscalculating. – Wall Street Journal

An influential group of China experts called for Americans to acknowledge what it described as a growing threat of Beijing-sponsored influence operations in the U.S. The cohort also proposed restricting visas for Chinese media and scholars unless their American counterparts are allowed to operate more freely in China. – Wall Street Journal

Three days before a U.S.-China summit, the top U.S. trade official is blasting Beijing for imposing “egregious” taxes on American-made cars. – Associated Press

China is hoping for “positive results” in resolving a trade dispute with the United States at a G20 summit in Argentina, the commerce ministry said on Thursday, ahead of a closely watched meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders. – Reuters

An Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer and a Henry Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler sailed through the Taiwan Strait Wednesday, in what the Navy called a routine transit. – USNI News

A new study highlights China’s growing air power, and warns that China is looking to build out its Air Force to the point that the U.S. would not be willing to take it on in direct conflict. The Project Air Force team at Rand Corp. describes an emerging Chinese air force that aims to rival the United States’ own, both technologically and strategically, often by mirroring U.S. military capabilities and doctrine. – Air Force Times

Editorial: China takes advantage of the open society in the United States but, at the same time, slams shut the doors inside China, making it almost impossible for scholars and journalists to carry out the same kind of activities in the police state that is the People’s Republic. To remedy this imbalance, they wisely suggest that the United States needs to expose Chinese influence campaigns, as well as enhance defenses against abuses. – Washington Post

Robert J. Samuelson writes: As for the Chinese, they may think they can satisfy Trump by promising to buy more American exports. But U.S. grievances with China go much deeper. Foreign firms — including American — find it hard to compete in China and say they’re targets of discriminatory rules and investment practices. […]If so, the trade war may become a permanent fixture of the global economy. – Washington Post

James Leibold writes: It is the regime’s fundamental insecurity — the fear of rebellion and eventually China’s dismemberment — that drives it deeper and deeper into the private lives of its citizens, only alienating them. The repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang is just the extreme manifestation of the C.C.P.’s virulent — and unsustainable — pursuit of total control. – New York Times

Derek Scissors writes: The president may have won the 2016 election by pointing out problems in our relationship with China that his predecessors allowed to fester. A very strange thing about his time in office is talk of a great relationship with his “friend” Xi Jinping. It may have led to the reversal of American sanctions on ZTE, demonstrating that President Trump can make sharp course changes. But China is not changing course, and he should treat this meeting accordingly. – American Enterprise Institute

Michael Schuman writes: The values that underpinned U.S. global leadership for decades aren’t out of date. There’s no cause for a strong and prosperous America to see China as a mortal threat — and every reason to avoid making it one. The meeting in Buenos Aires is a chance to mend this world-shaping relationship. Both leaders ought to seize it. – Bloomberg

Arthur Herman writes: A Huawei-dominated 5G future has the potential to hand over everyone’s networks to China’s ultimate control. That’s one reason China is willing to win those 5G bids by any means necessary: it understands the global stakes involved. […]Unless the U.S. takes some serious action soon to halt China’s bid for global supremacy in telecommunications, America and its allies will be looking at a dismal future for their freedom and security. – Hudson Institute

South Asia

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump, the leaders of the world’s largest democracies, share certain traits as politicians. Both are ardent nationalists. Both know how to command a stage and captivate their supporters. But where the American president never passes up an opportunity to comment on a controversy, India’s leader prefers a different strategy: silence. – Washington Post

Indian security forces on Wednesday killed one of the most wanted Kashmiri militants, a young fighter who had escaped from police custody earlier this year and was accused of later assassinating a prominent newspaper editor. – New York Times

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Wednesday his government and the military want to mend ties with arch-foe India, in the latest bid to improve relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours. – Reuters

Since the country declared independence in 1947, Pakistan has come into conflict with its neighbor India on a number of occasions. The nation has one of the strongest military forces in the world and plays a key role in South Asian affairs. So how strong is Pakistan’s military? – Newsweek

Russia

Russia’s armed seizure of three Ukrainian ships in the days before the two leaders are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Buenos Aires has threatened to upend Mr. Trump’s plans to forge a fruitful relationship with Mr. Putin and may deepen the renewed tension between the former Cold War rivals. – New York Times

Ukraine’s president signed off Wednesday on orders for limited martial law amid a showdown with Moscow over the seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels and crew, but the next moves by Kiev appeared caught up in internal political wrangling. – Washington Post

President Vladimir V. Putin on Wednesday dismissed the maritime clash between Russia and Ukraine as a criminal incident rather than the opening of a new front in the long-running conflict between the two countries, while a Russian court on the disputed Crimean peninsula sent a second group of captured Ukrainian sailors to jail. – New York Times

Beset by Western sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin is turning the national economy inward, enlisting local tycoons for the biggest infrastructure-investment program since Soviet times. – Wall Street Journal

US President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 in Argentina on Saturday, despite threatening to cancel the meeting over the recent takeover of three Ukrainian vessels by Russia near the Crimean Peninsula. – Agence France-Presse

Ukraine’s president donned combat fatigues to implement martial law in much of the country on Wednesday, a move Russia denounced as a cynical political trick as both sides ratcheted up tensions after a weekend standoff in the Black Sea. – Associated Press

Russia’s brazen seizure of three Ukrainian navy ships on Sunday set off a firestorm of finger-pointing and appeals to international law on both sides. But the clash over the Kerch Strait and access to the Sea of Azov isn’t likely to become a long-running international spectacle like the ongoing maritime feud between the U.S. and China over China’s claims in the South China Sea. – Defense News

In the wake of the Kerch Straits crises, where Russia detained three Ukrainian navy boats after claiming they entered Russian territorial waters, Moscow now may deploy the S-400 air defense system to Crimea. The S-400 could be operational in the tense area by the end of the year. The deployment is part of a larger Moscow strategy that sees the S-400, and its less advanced cousin the S-300, as a form of military-diplomacy to carve out a sphere of influence from Damascus to the Don. – Jerusalem Post

Adrian Karatnycky writes: The Kremlin dared to act in such a brazen way because the West’s response to its campaign in Ukraine so far has been largely feckless. The U.S. and its European allies answered the annexation of Crimea and occupation of the Donbas region with halfhearted rhetoric and meager material aid to the Ukrainian resistance. The Russians this week had little reason to expect that their overt attack would prompt a reaction they couldn’t withstand. – Wall Street Journal

Luke Coffey and Alexis Mrachek write: On November 25, Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border-patrol boats opened fire on three Ukrainian navy vessels near the Kerch Strait[…]. In order to help Ukraine improve its capabilities, the U.S. should gain a better understanding of the maritime situation in the region, increase the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) presence in the Black Sea, and equip Ukraine with much-needed maritime capability, such as radars, ships, and anti-ship missiles. – Heritage Foundation

Africa

A four-year field investigation by a Britain-based monitoring group has found that South Sudan’s neighbors, Uganda in particular, circumvented arms embargoes on the war-torn country, funneling European weaponry to armies on both sides of its civil war which has displaced millions and resulted in an estimated 383,000 deaths. – Washington Post

The U.S. military said on Wednesday it had killed three militants in an air strike targeting the al-Shabaab Islamist group in Somalia the previous day. – Reuters

A senior Israeli diplomat reportedly met with Sudanese officials in a secret meeting held in Istanbul as part of efforts to renew ties between the two countries and even establish full diplomatic relations. – Times of Israel

Salem Solomon writes: That year, my family and I were among the estimated 75,000 Eritreans who were deported from Ethiopia at the start of a two-year border war, followed by a protracted cold war that ended this year in a formal declaration of peace. Twenty years have passed since that conflict uprooted thousands of families like mine. But the costly antipathy between Eritrea and Ethiopia goes back much further. – New York Times

Cyber Security

Most people ignore these entreaties, which are invariably scams. But one in five recipients actually talks to the fake tech-support centers, and 6 percent ultimately pay the operators to “fix” the nonexistent problem, according to recent consumer surveys by Microsoft. Law enforcement authorities, working with Microsoft, have now traced many of these boiler rooms to New Delhi, India’s capital and a hub of the global call-center industry. – New York Times

Digital giants led by Google, Facebook and Amazon have warned Australia against passing a “fundamentally flawed” law allowing security services to spy on encrypted communications among suspected criminals and terrorists. – Agence France-Presse

So goes the largely unstated race between the United States and China to partner with countries in South America, a region with burgeoning cybersecurity growth. It is a dynamic that Cyber Command and military officials from these nations will discuss in corner conversations and in whispers, but rarely acknowledge in public. – Fifth Domain

Editorial: Yet, even as the body count of this fanaticism grows, the nation still lacks a coherent strategy for countering the violent extremism made possible through the internet. Instead, the fundamental design of social media sometimes exacerbates the problem. – New York Times

Long War

Italian anti-terrorism police on Wednesday arrested a Lebanese national of Palestinian descent on suspicion he was planning a poison attack in the Sardinian town of Macomer. – Reuters

A British court has rejected an extradition request from Turkey for exiled businessman Akin Ipek to face terrorism-funding, fraud and other charges, saying he faced a real risk of ill-treatment should he be returned. – Reuters

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: Over the past few years, the influx of Tunisian fighters to Iraq and Syria has rendered Tunisia practically synonymous with a phenomenon that is still not well understood. […]This study examines the motives driving Tunisia’s foreign fighters, the roles they have assumed with jihadi groups in Iraq and Syria, the reasons why many have returned to Tunisia from the battlefield, and the dilemma this poses to the Tunisian state in terms of security and human rights. – Washington Institute