Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s security cabinet will vote Tuesday on a cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah, Israeli and U.S. officials said, a deal that would end fighting that has destabilized Lebanon and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. – Wall Street Journal

The Group of Seven democracies are seeking a common position on the arrest warrant for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued last week by the International Criminal Court (ICC), Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Monday. – Reuters

The European Union’s foreign policy chief urged the Israeli government on Tuesday to back a proposed ceasefire deal in Lebanon which he said has all the necessary security guarantees for Israel. – Reuters

Foreign ministers from the world’s leading industrialized nations expressed cautious optimism Monday about possible progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. – Associated Press

Diplomats and other officials say there have been several sticking points in ceasefire talks to end the war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, even as conditions for an agreement appear to be ripe. – Associated Press

With the Jerusalem cabinet set to approve a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah on Tuesday, Galilee residents are wondering whether the Israel Defense Force will be allowed to enforce its terms. – New York Sun

The operational activities of the IDF’s 7th Armored Brigade continue to achieve significant results, uncovering vast troves of Hezbollah weaponry in southern Lebanon, the brigade’s commander, Colonel Elad Zuri, said in a recent interview. – Jerusalem Post

Sources in the security establishment have not ruled out the possibility that a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, in a manner that binds the Lebanese terror organization, could lead to a breakthrough in negotiations with Hamas for the release of hostages, Walla reported on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Tuesday that he has won a years-long battle to get authority to build a new hi-tech border fence with Jordan to block smuggling, especially from Iran. – Jerusalem Post

IDF and defense officials warned of delays in acquiring new attack helicopters and challenges in maintaining the older Boeing AH-64 Apache fleet. These issues arise as the Israel Air Force strains its capabilities to counter drone threats across multiple fronts while supporting ground operations. – Jerusalem Post

Two people were wounded following several direct rocket hits in Nahariya, Magen David Adom reported on Monday night. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is maintaining a veto on French involvement in a potential cease-fire in Lebanon unless Paris publicly makes clear that it will not arrest Netanyahu if he travels to the country pursuant to a warrant from the International Criminal Court, even after President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron reached a compromise on the matter, an Israeli official confirmed to Jewish Insider on Monday. – Jewish Insider

Editorial: Beyond Ms. Nderitu’s fate, the damage here includes defining genocide down. The word has become a weapon of political propaganda that will erode’s its moral authority when it’s needed to describe genuine horrors. Ms. Nderitu may be out, but her refusal to endorse a lie in service of a political agenda has been a profile in courage. Can anyone with integrity survive at the U.N.? – Wall Street Journal

Eytan Gilboa writes: The Knesset should enact a law like the August 2002 “American Service-Members’ Protection Act,” which authorizes the US president to use “all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any US or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court.” […]By enacting its own similar law, Israel will declare that it has no intention of abandoning Israeli elected and appointed officials or military officers should they be arrested anywhere in the world. A robust combination of all the aforementioned tools is likely to create heavy pressure on the ICC to revoke its unfounded and outrageous arrest warrants. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine’s European allies, struggling to produce enough weapons for Kyiv’s war effort, are pioneering a new method: giving Ukrainians money to do it themselves. – Wall Street Journal

As Ukraine prepares for the looming uncertainty of a new U.S. president, officials and business executives here are coming up with ways to sell Donald Trump on the idea that a strong Ukraine is useful to his political goals — and expressing cautious optimism that he may act faster and more decisively than President Joe Biden. – Washington Post

Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s powerful Security Council, told Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders on Monday that Moscow wanted to help achieve a durable peace in the country, Russian news agencies reported. – Reuters

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say. – Reuters

A Russian court has ordered the arrest of Catherine Norris Trent, a reporter for the France24 news channel, on a charge of crossing illegally into its western Kursk region, state news agency TASS said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russian missiles damaged residential buildings in Ukraine’s eastern city of Kharkiv and Odesa in the south, and a blizzard of drones caused temporary power cuts in Mykolaiv region and targeted the capital Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said on Monday. – Reuters

Russia’s overnight air attacks damaged the power grid in Ternopil, a major city in western Ukraine, cutting off electricity and water, and disrupting heat supplies, the head of the regional defence headquarters said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Discussion in the West about arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons is “absolutely irresponsible”, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russian forces have captured a British man fighting with the Ukrainian army in Russia’s Kursk region, Russia’s RIA news agency cited a security source as saying after a video of a captive emerged over the weekend. – Reuters

Russia’s land forces are bigger now than at the time of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 but their quality has decreased since, a NATO top military official said on Monday. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday it had noted that President-elect Donald Trump’s circle was speaking about a potential peace plan for Ukraine while the current U.S. administration of Joe Biden was not and was seeking to escalate the conflict instead. – Reuters

Britain sanctioned 30 ships in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet that have been skirting restrictions to transport billions of dollars of petroleum, the Foreign Office said Monday. – Associated Press

A Russian man was convicted and sentenced to 14 years in prison Monday after being found guilty of high treason for a video he sent to Ukraine’s security services, the latest in a series of espionage cases involving the conflict. – Associated Press

The UK government recently supplied Ukraine with dozens more Storm Shadow cruise missiles, according to people familiar with the matter, a first under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has pledged continued support for the country’s war against Russia. – Bloomberg

Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka has spent decades uncovering Russian spy networks, sabotage attempts and disinformation campaigns against Europe. – Bloomberg

Ukraine needs money invested into its own military production industry, not foreign troops to fight its war against Russia, Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur told The Hill. – The Hill

Moscow is considering deploying medium- and shorter-range missiles to Asia should similar U.S. armaments appear in the region, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has said. – Newsweek

Ukraine fired U.S.-made ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads at a Russian military airfield in Kursk Oblast on Sunday, according to the geospatial intelligence group Cyber Boroshno’s post on Telegram. – Newsweek

Lebanon

U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire in Lebanon between armed group Hezbollah and Israel imminently, four senior Lebanese sources said on Monday. – Reuters

Lebanon’s deputy speaker of parliament Elias Bou Saab told Reuters on Monday that there were “no serious obstacles” left to beginning the implementation of a U.S.-proposed 60-day truce to end fighting between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. – Reuters

Lebanon on Monday condemned attacks on the United Nations peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL) stationed in its south, including last week’s rocket strike in which four Italian soldiers were lightly injured. – Reuters

Israel’s military launched airstrikes across Lebanon on Monday, unleashing explosions throughout the country and killing at least 31 while Israeli leaders appeared to be closing in on a negotiated ceasefire with the Hezbollah militant group. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

North Korea is expanding a key weapons manufacturing complex that assembles a type of short-range missile used by Russia in Ukraine, researchers at a U.S.-based think tank have concluded, based on satellite images. – Reuters

South Korean prosecutors requested on Monday a five-year jail term for Samsung Electronics Chairman Jay Y. Lee over actions in a controversial merger of affiliates that helped solidify his control in a case being tried at an appeals court. – Reuters

After boycotting a memorial event organised by Tokyo, South Korea held its own on Monday to remember compatriots forced to work in a Japanese mine during World War Two, highlighting lingering sensitivities between the key U.S. allies. – Reuters

North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of leader kim Jong Un, condemned what she said were leaflets criticizing the North Korean regime flown from South Korea, state media KCNA reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

A South Korean man has been sentenced to a suspended prison term for deliberately gaining more than 20 kilograms (44 pounds) to evade a tougher role in the country’s military conscription system, a Seoul court said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Russia has issued a warning to South Korea against sending arms to Ukraine, with Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko calling on Seoul to “soberly assess the situation and refrain from reckless steps”. – Newsweek

South Korea faces the mounting threat of North Korea using nuclear weapons as the two countries enter a “new Cold War,” the chair of Seoul National University’s security research center said Friday. – USNI News

South Asia

Pakistan deployed its army within the nation’s capital on Tuesday with orders to shoot protesters if necessary, as deadly clashes escalated between the police and supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. – New York Times

The United Nations’ mission to Afghanistan said on Tuesday the ruling Taliban had arbitrarily detained journalists 256 times since their takeover three years ago, and urged authorities there to protect the media. – Reuters

Police in Bangladesh’s capital have arrested a prominent Hindu leader who has been leading rallies demanding security for Hindus in the overwhelmingly Muslim nation since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country amid a mass uprising in August. – Associated Press

Hundreds of supporters of India’s main opposition party protested on Monday against billionaire Gautam Adani, who was recently indicted in the U.S. for alleged fraud and bribery, and accused the government of protecting the Indian coal magnate whose companies’ shares have plunged since the charges last week. – Associated Press

Authorities closed schools and suspended internet services in a northern Indian city on Monday, officials said, a day after four people were killed in clashes sparked by an official survey probing whether a 16th-century mosque was built on a Hindu temple. – Associated Press

Europe

An aircraft used by DHL and flying from the global shipping company’s hub in Germany crashed while making a forced landing in Lithuania, killing one person and plowing into a residential area. – Wall Street Journal

Business confidence in Germany slipped this month, amid mounting pressures on the country’s industrial base, alongside concerns raised by the fracture of its governing coalition and the threat of U.S. trade tariffs. – Wall Street Journal

At least three people were killed in England and Wales amid sweeping floods, landslides, fallen trees, road accidents and power outages. By Monday afternoon, more than 120 flood warnings were still active across Britain. – New York Times

A hard-right critic of NATO who has praised Russia is set to face a centre-right opposition leader in a presidential election run-off in Romania that could undermine its pro-Western stance after a shock outcome in the first-round vote. – Reuters

Norway’s PST security police force said on Monday it had found no grounds to further investigate Norwegian links to the supply of booby-trapped pagers to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which exploded in September killing dozens of people and wounding thousands. – Reuters

Scuffles broke out in the Serbian parliament on Monday after opposition legislators raised banners accusing the ruling coalition of trying to shirk responsibility for the collapse of a train station roof that killed 15 people earlier this month. – Reuters

Germany’s ruling Social Democrats officially made Chancellor Olaf Scholz their lead candidate on Monday for February’s election, billing him as a safe pair of hands compared with the opposition conservatives contender who has no government experience. – Reuters

A top NATO military official on Monday urged businesses to be prepared for a wartime scenario and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly, in order to be less vulnerable to blackmail from countries such as Russia and China. – Reuters

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen issued a new threat on Monday to bring down France’s coalition government in a no-confidence vote, after talks with Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed to satisfy her party’s demands for budget concessions. – Reuters

The newly elected Georgian parliament opened its inaugural session Monday as opposition lawmakers and the president boycotted it and thousands of protesters, watched by riot police, rallied outside and accused the ruling party of rigging the vote under Russian influence. – Associated Press

A dozen soldiers, including at least eight British troops, were injured in a major traffic wreck during a NATO exercise in Estonia last week, officials said Monday. – Associated Press

The European Union is proposing to sanction several Chinese firms that it claims helped Russian companies develop attack drones that were deployed against Ukraine. – Bloomberg

What matters is not how much NATO countries spend on arms and ammunition — but rather how they spend it, German and French defense ministers said on Monday. – Politico

German federal prosecutors said Monday they had charged four suspected members of Hamas, allegedly tasked with sourcing and storing weapons for the Palestinian terror group in Europe. – Agence France-Presse

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers urged the Dutch prime minister last week to take prompt action in response to the string of recent antisemitic attacks and mob violence in Amsterdam that followed a soccer match more than two weeks ago. – Jewish Insider

Kaush Arha and Paolo Messa write: In the coming weeks and months, Rome and Washington will recognize each other’s shared outlooks and priorities, paving the way for collective actions for mutual benefit. Their “America First” and “Italy First” sentiments are firmly seated in a strong and stable transatlantic alliance, making common cause against shared adversaries and threats. Rome and Washington have a generational opportunity not only to transform and strengthen their bilateral relationship but also to reshape the transatlantic alliance in their image. The Italian prime minister should invite the incoming president, Donald Trump, to make Italy his first European destination, launching an ambitious U.S.-Italy agenda that will cement the Trump-Meloni legacy for decades to come. – National Interest

Latin America

An Ecuadorean court on Monday convicted 20 of 21 total defendants in a wide-ranging organized crime and drug trafficking case involving the Andean country’s judicial system, sentencing them to between 40 months and 10 years in prison. – Reuters

The political fortunes of Brazil’s hard-right former President Jair Bolsonaro long mirrored those of his ideological ally Donald Trump – but their fates now look to have diverged dramatically. – Reuters

A trove of leaked audio recordings from late 2022 reveal high-ranking members of Brazil ‘s army discussing efforts to pressure then-President Jair Bolsonaro to carry out a coup and remain in power. – Associated Press

Supermarket giant Carrefour’s support for French farmers’ protests against a trade agreement between the European Union and the South American bloc Mercosur has sparked a strong reaction in Brazil, including a refusal to supply beef to Carrefour stores in Brazil. – Associated Press

Venezuela’s opposition party continues to resist President Nicolas Maduro after the fallout from the country’s controversial presidential elections in July. – Washington Examiner

United States

President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday he will issue executive orders imposing new tariffs on all imported goods from China, Mexico and Canada, the nation’s three largest trading partners, as one of his first acts on Inauguration Day. – Washington Post

Republican President-elect Donald Trump says he plans to fundamentally alter the U.S. relationship with NATO during his second four-year term and rapidly bring the war in Ukraine to a close. On the campaign trail, he floated sending armed forces into Mexico to battle drug cartels and slapping expansive tariffs on friends and foes alike. – Reuters

A Massachusetts man pleaded guilty on Monday to charges that he threatened to kill Jews and bomb a synagogue in a case that U.S. prosecutors said reflected a growing nationwide torrent of antisemitism after the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began last year. – Reuters

Defense

Multiple unidentified drones were seen last week near three British air bases used by American forces, the U.S. Air Force said in a statement Monday. – Washington Post

A Republican senator has blocked the promotion of U.S. Army Lieutenant General Christopher Donahue, who commanded the military’s 82nd Airborne Division during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and was the last American soldier to leave the country in 2021. – Reuters

The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin have reached a handshake agreement for two more lots of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. – Defense News

A former U.S. Navy officer has been sentenced for conspiring to steal over $850,000 in military gear and selling it to buyers in other countries, federal officials said. – Military.com