Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the U.S.- and Israeli-backed organisation to distribute aid in Gaza, said on Monday it was ending its operations after months of criticism over deaths of hundreds of Palestinians trying to reach GHF hubs. – Reuters

Victims of Hamas’ October 2023 attack on Israel sued Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao, accusing them of facilitating millions of dollars in payments to the group and other U.S.-designated terrorist groups. – Reuters

The Bank of Israel cut interest rates by a quarter-point on Monday, its first reduction in nearly two years, citing a moderation in inflation leading up to the ceasefire in Gaza and said cuts will be very gradual over the next year. – Reuters

The armed wing of Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad said it had found the body of one of the last three hostages held in Gaza on Monday. – Agence France-Presse

The IAF struck terror targets in the southern Gaza Strip, east of Khan Yunis, on Tuesday morning. Last week, the IAF struck approximately 15 terrorists who emerged from tunnels at two different locations east of the Yellow Line in eastern Rafah. – Jerusalem Post 

Israeli forces killed the terrorist in Nablus who was responsible for the death of two IDF soldiers in the Kfir Brigade, the IDF announced in a statement on Monday. – Jerusalem Post 

Jerusalem Mayor Moshe Lion’s car was attacked by haredi (ultra-Orthodox) stone-throwers at Avinoam Yellin Street in the capital city, Israel Police said Monday. No injuries were reported, although the vehicle’s windshield was damaged. – Jerusalem Post 

The former IDF Intelligence Directorate’s Operations chief, Brig.-Gen. “G” will leave his role within the Mossad “in an orderly manner,” the Prime Minister’s Office announced on Monday. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir expelled “G” following Maj.-Gen. (res.) Sammy Turgeman’s probe into the October 7 massacre. – Jerusalem Post 

Editorial: Proportionality doesn’t mean tit-for-tat; it means using the force necessary to achieve a reasonable objective. Israel’s goal, embraced even by the United Nations Security Council, is to demilitarize Gaza. That will involve making Hamas pay a serious price for violating President’s Trump deal. Israel’s post-Oct. 7, 2023, security doctrine won’t give Hamas a pass for poor marksmanship. – Wall Street Journal

Alon Unger writes: This is especially urgent now, as many nations are competing to dominate UAV leadership. Now more than ever, to realize our current strength and secure Israel’s place among the world’s top UAV powers (military, security, civilian, and dual-use), we must reach a government decision and implement a funded, managed work plan for the short, medium, and long term. It is time to transform Israel from a technology leader into a global UAV ecosystem leader. – Jerusalem Post 

Ruthie J. Leberman writes: Israel doesn’t need American troops. It needs American support for its defensive actions and independence to make decisions based on immediate security realities. Every dollar spent supporting Israeli military capability prevents far more expensive American deployments. Every Israeli operation against Iranian proxies weakens America’s primary Middle Eastern adversary. Every breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations advances American goals of regional stability. Strong support for Israel isn’t about values alone. It’s about recognizing that Israel’s security serves America’s interests in concrete, measurable ways. It’s about standing with the only nation in the Middle East that protects religious freedom and maintains stability in the lands where Western civilization’s religious heritage was born. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

It started with an October order from President Trump to his national security team: Come up with a plan to end the Ukraine war just as they had halted the fighting in Gaza. On a flight back from the Middle East, in the afterglow of brokering a deal between Israel and Hamas, envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner began writing the first draft of what would eventually become a 28-point peace framework to end the four-year war, according to U.S. officials and a person familiar with the situation. – Wall Street Journal

Diplomats from the U.S. and Ukraine thrashing out changes to a Trump-backed peace plan have left thorny decisions over territory to their countries’ presidents, according to European officials familiar with the discussions. – Wall Street Journal

Russia launched a new barrage of drones and missiles at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Tuesday, killing six people, wounding 13, and disrupting electricity and heating systems, officials said. – Reuters

Three people were killed and at least 16 injured in a major Ukrainian drone attack on southern Russia with residential buildings damaged in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar, Russian officials said. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Monday said that a European counter-proposal to a U.S. 28-point peace plan for Ukraine was not constructive and that it simply did not work for Moscow. – Reuters

European Council President Antonio Costa pledged on Monday that the European Union will keep on supporting Ukraine, as he hailed “new momentum” in peace negotiations to end the war triggered by Russia’s invasion. – Reuters

As Ukraine weighs a U.S.-imposed peace deal deemed unfavorable to Kyiv, Russia could be ready to challenge NATO again soon after the weapons go silent, experts warned at a Baltic security conference last week. – Defense News 

Editorial: And more sanctions wouldn’t matter? The decisive enabler of Mr. Putin’s conquest is the Chinese Communist Party. The U.S. has made no real attempt to cut this lifeline, say, with secondary sanctions. Mr. Putin is also facing more economic and manpower problems on his own domestic front. […] The test of any peace agreement isn’t that the fighting stops for a time. The test is whether a deal creates the conditions for a durable peace. A false peace will plant the seeds of future bloodshed and broader threats to European and U.S. security. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Witkoff worked out the early version purely after talks with Moscow, which at least got Putin to set down hard terms short of “everything I want” for the first time; the Ukrainians were inevitably going to want their own input included. Rubio has plainly made Kyiv feel heard; now all can hope that negotiations lead to something more productive. An honorable peace may still be a ways off, but it now looks a lot more possible than it did just days ago. – New York Post

Walter Russell Mead writes: For Mr. Putin, the Donbas is a tasty appetizer, but not the main course. He hopes psychological and military pressure will break Ukraine’s fighting spirit, allowing him to annex the center and south of the country before he makes peace. This is why, despite everything, the Ukrainians and the Europeans are engaging with the ever-evolving 28 Points. Even if diplomacy brings a truce rather than an enduring peace, stopping the fighting on almost any terms looks better than prolonging a war that grows ever more desperate. – Wall Street Journal

Hal Brands writes: Ukraine’s political scene is toxic, amid war fatigue and corruption scandals. The situation on the front line is, unmistakably, deteriorating as manpower problems worsen. War is an unstable equilibrium, and the ugly truth is that this conflict is becoming unsustainable for both sides. Ukraine and its friends have an opportunity to bring the crisis of Putin’s war effort to a climax. If they don’t take it, they may not get another chance. – Bloomberg

Andreas Kluth writes: Differences in opinion are nothing new in foreign policy, within the White House or any government. Wise leaders, however, resolve these contradictions by providing a moral and strategic compass that eventually causes all the iron filings to align. Trump is proving every day that he lacks this compass, and that the nations adrift include not only Ukraine and all of America’s friends and allies, but the United States itself. – Bloomberg 

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan write: But these mysterious boats navigating close to European shores are no longer simply a means for Russia to sell oil to sustain its military-industrial base. They are also a military and intelligence threat in their own right. To truly address the threat, Europeans must recognize that the fleet is already destabilizing their countries and some day might serve to support and even provide a launch point for offensive operations in Europe. – Foreign Affairs

Turkey

A delegation from a Turkish parliamentary commission overseeing the disarmament of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant group paid their first visit to its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan on Monday, the parliamentary speaker’s office said. – Reuters

Turkey agreed with the World Bank to begin talks for up to $6 billion in financing to upgrade the country’s electricity transmission system, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Monday. – Reuters

A new global assessment by Aid to the Church in Need (ACN) reports a sharp rise in hostility toward religious minorities in Turkey, including the Jewish community, driven by antisemitic rhetoric and pressure on non-Muslim groups. – Jerusalem Post

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was quoted on Monday as saying that Türkiye, as it did in the past, would take the necessary steps against threats to its national security through Syria. The president was responding to a journalist’s question while traveling to Türkiye from South Africa, about Israel’s presence in Syria in the post-Baathist era. – Daily Sabah

Korean Peninsula

The Bank of Korea will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday as policymakers grapple with a volatile currency and an overheated housing market, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who have pushed the next predicted rate cut to early next year. – Reuters

South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party will propose a bill this week that would facilitate the country’s investment in the U.S. under a deal that cuts tariffs on the country’s exports, financial news service Money Today reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Lee’s Seoul-based Free North Korea Radio station has tried for two decades to give real-time news to North Korea’s 26 million people. But Lee says she now feels a sense of crisis about her work as big government-funded broadcasters in the United States and South Korea have fallen silent this year because of major funding cuts and policy changes. – Associated Press

Zdeněk Rod writes: South Korea’s nuclear debate is no longer theoretical, and it shouldn’t be dismissed. North Korea’s arsenal is real, and U.S. politics are unpredictable. Seoul is right to reassess its options. But developing nuclear weapons would impose catastrophic strategic and economic costs while solving few of the country’s actual defense problems. The surest path to long-term security is not a South Korean bomb — it’s a stronger, clearer and more resilient U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance backed by credible conventional deterrence and smart hedging. – Defense News

South Asia

When the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, they halted much of girls’ education across Afghanistan almost overnight. The regime prohibits girls from attending school beyond sixth grade and sharply restricts their movement in its imposition of Shariah law. – New York Times

Canada and India are close to finalizing an export agreement in a deal valued at about US$2.8 billion, the Globe and Mail reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Afghanistan’s Taliban administration said on Tuesday that nine children and a woman were killed in Pakistani air strikes and vowed to respond, ratcheting up tensions between the South Asian neighbours. – Reuters

The Trump administration said on Monday it is ending temporary legal status for citizens of Myanmar in the United States, arguing they can safely return to the war-torn Southeast Asian country and citing the military junta’s planned elections as evidence of an improving situation. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military government has begun broadcasting extensive video on state television of its crackdown on online scam centers, showing buildings being bulldozed and over 1,000 foreigners detained. – Associated Press

India and France have deepened defense cooperation with a pact to jointly produce an air-to-ground weapon, a move aligned with New Delhi’s broader push for self-reliance in advanced military technology. – Bloomberg

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will soon visit Myanmar, his first trip to the country and the first by a European leader since the military seized power in 2021. – Bloomberg

Mihir Sharma writes: The two are connected: They just need to look to their former rulers in Pakistan if they need an object lesson in how lawlessness and extremism are guaranteed to cause economic stagnation. True justice for Hasina’s victims would lie in creating a judiciary that is seen to be independent, security forces that are accountable, and a polity with a place for all parties. Bangladesh needs a fresh start, not old executioners with new mandates. – Bloomberg

Europe

France, whose relations with Russia are at a low point, has embarked on a concerted effort to convince its citizens that they must be ready for war. But a warning from the new French Army chief that the country must accept the possible loss of its children has touched a raw nerve. – New York Times

Stung by accusations of liberal bias and threatened by a president’s lawsuit, the BBC’s chair apologized again on Monday to a parliamentary committee for failing to swiftly acknowledge misleading editing in a documentary about President Trump. But he said the British broadcaster had unjustly become a political football. – New York Times

The drones that have veered near airports in Germany, Poland, Belgium and Estonia and frequent incidents of sabotage are chilling reminders of how Russia’s relentless war in Ukraine could easily spill into Europe. – New York Times

Poland summoned Israel’s ambassador on Monday over a tweet from a Holocaust memorial institute that Warsaw said did not make clear that occupying Nazi German forces, and not Polish authorities, made Jews wear star badges during World War Two. – Reuters

French pollster Odoxa predicted for the first time that 30-year-old far-right leader Jordan Bardella would win the next presidential election, scheduled in 2027, no matter who his opponents would be. – Reuters

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu put pressure on lawmakers on Monday to pass the 2026 budget by the end of the year after the deeply divided lower house of parliament rejected the tax side of the legislation. – Reuters

Polish prosecutors have arrested a Ukrainian man suspected of collaborating with Russia to sabotage a rail track, they said on Monday. – Reuters

Italy’s leftist opposition and ruling parties held their ground in regional votes, provisional results showed on Monday, wrapping up a round of races in 2025 that saw no signs of any breakthrough for challengers to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. – Reuters

The European Union’s antitrust chief ruled out easing the bloc’s tech rulebook, after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Brussels needed to change its digital regulations in order to get a deal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs. – Bloomberg

The European Union must move urgently on tapping Russian frozen assets as a way to gain a seat at the negotiating table over peace in Ukraine, Lithuania’s top diplomat said. – Bloomberg

The Americas

The Colombian military said Monday it had opened an investigation into allegations that senior army and intelligence officials advised the leader of an armed drug-trafficking group about how to secretly buy weapons and evade military scrutiny. – Wall Street Journal

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is considering a trip to Washington early next month, which may provide an opportunity to restart talks with the White House about relief from certain hefty tariffs. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s disinformation efforts across Latin America have intensified over the last two years, partly aimed at sowing discord between the United States and its allies in the region, according to an American diplomatic cable and new report by watchdog groups. – New York Times

Hondurans will go to the polls on Sunday to vote in a tightly fought presidential election beset by heated accusations of fraud in one of Latin America’s poorest countries. – Reuters

A four-judge panel of Brazil’s Supreme Court voted unanimously on Monday to keep former President Jair Bolsonaro in police custody after Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his detention on Saturday citing a flight risk. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department said on Monday it imposed visa restrictions on a Haitian government official for allegedly supporting gangs and other criminal organizations and for what Washington called an obstruction to the Haitian government’s fight against “terrorist gangs.” – Reuters

The United States on Monday formally designated Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, layering additional terrorism-related sanctions on the group it has said includes President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking officials. – Reuters

Immigration authorities in Colombia have taken 17 children into protective custody after they were rescued from an ultra-Orthodox Jewish sect whose members have been accused of sexually abusing and kidnapping minors in several countries. – Associated Press

Chile ultra-conservative presidential candidate José Antonio Kast secured a commanding double-digit lead in the first polls taken since he and a leftist rival advanced to the country’s runoff vote. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL.O), and venture capital firm Accel will partner to fund at least 10 early-stage Indian AI startups, marking the U.S. technology giant’s first such funding partnership, top executives at the companies said on Thursday. – Reuters

When accountants at mid-tier firm Moore Kingston Smith began using artificial intelligence to speed up their work, profit margins jumped. Colleagues in another team running checks against corporate fraud created a report for customers in two hours, something that previously took two weeks. – Reuters

Singapore’s police have ordered Apple AAPL.O and Google GOOGL.O to prevent the spoofing of government agencies on their messaging platforms, the home affairs ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday establishing the “Genesis Mission,” a federal effort to boost innovation using artificial intelligence — the latest step by the administration to promote AI technology and its adoption. – Bloomberg

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency warned Monday about threat groups using commercial spyware to target messaging apps, and urged users to take protective steps. – CyberScoop

Ryan Fedasiuk writes: But if opposition to the bill is motivated by corporate capture, then the administration should own the fact that it will permit the sale of advanced chips to a declared adversary because they pay premium prices. GAIN AI is not perfect. But it is better legislation than any alternative likely to emerge from a frustrated Congress, and dramatically better than the incoherent middle ground of wanting to promote American AI exports while simultaneously enabling their Chinese competitors. – War on the Rocks