Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli prosecutors indicted one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aides on Thursday, charging the aide with leaking classified information on Hamas and most likely harming national security, the latest development in a web of legal scandals that has entangled the country’s leader. – New York Times

The United States rejected a decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue arrest warrants on Thursday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense chief, a White House National Security Council spokesperson said. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced on Thursday the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for him and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant, calling the ruling “anti-Semitic”. – Reuters

A 30-year-old man was killed by rocket shrapnel next to a playground in the northern Israeli town of Nahariya on Thursday, Israel’s MDA medical service said. – Reuters

The arrest warrant issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war in Gaza does not bar UN officials from meeting with him in the course of their work, the UN said Thursday. – Agence France-Presse

US envoy Amos Hochstein, seeking to broker a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war, will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, the premier’s office said. – Agence France-Presse

Hamas’s general refusal to cut a deal with Israel is what is holding back a return of Israeli hostages and not Jerusalem’s refusal to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor, to withdraw from a Gaza security perimeter, or lack of agreement on “Gaza the Day After” arrangements, said a senior defense official on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

IDF, Shin Bet, and Border Police eliminated nine armed terrorists over the last two days in the Jenin area in the West Bank, the IDF announced on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Families of victims of the Hamas October 7 attack, political leaders, and civilian organizations objected Thursday to a bill that would replace a state probe of October 7 with a political probe. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and Turkey on Thursday welcomed the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes in Gaza. – Times of Israel

Israel is moving forward with plans to allow a civilian security company to assist in distributing humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip, a senior security source said Thursday. – Haaretz

Editorial: This is why President Biden said on Oct. 18, 2023, that if Hamas steals the aid, “it will end.” The President broke that promise, and Israel has exceeded its aid obligations. […] Using Palestinian civilians as political weapons is the essence of Hamas’s strategy, which the ICC now vindicates. Hamas cheered the ICC warrants on Thursday in a statement that “international justice is with us and against the Zionist entity.” – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The ICC’s decision is internally illogical. Israel is not a signatory to the Rome Statute, which demarcates the court’s jurisdiction. “Palestine” is not a state. An arrest warrant is issued for Mohammed Deif, but Israel believes that he is now before a higher tribunal, having been killed in July. Warrants for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh are also moot. Meanwhile, chief prosecutor Karim Khan faces his own sexual harassment scandal. […] The Jewish state is embarked on a wrenching debate over its judicial system, whose vigor is acknowledged by all sides. – New York Sun

Bernard-Henri Lévy writes: The world has willingly forgotten that, in this war of Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its puppets, the IDF is the first army in the world to take so many measures, sometimes to its strategic detriment, to ensure that as few innocent civilians as possible are caught in the furnace of battles. – New York Sun

Dan Illouz writes: Today, as Israel faces an onslaught of rockets, terror tunnels and global hypocrisy, it continues to defend not just its people, but the ideals of freedom and justice. The ICC can issue as many baseless indictments as it pleases, but Israel will not be swayed. It will continue to fight terror, protect its citizens and uphold the values that the free world so desperately needs. Because without Israel standing firm, the free world stands no chance. – New York Post

Russia & Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West against further escalation after Moscow fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads at Ukraine for the first time. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. will sanction Russia’s Gazprombank, the lender built around the country’s gas export giant, and dozens of other financial institutions in a bid to further curtail the country’s use of the international financial system. – Wall Street Journal

After a contentious parliamentary election, Georgia — a small nation once part of the Soviet Union — finds itself sliding back into Russia’s orbit following decades of seeking greater integration with the West. – Washington Post

The United States believes that Russia fired a never-before-fielded intermediate-range ballistic missile on Thursday in its attack on Ukraine, an escalation that analysts say could have implications for European missile defense. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that a Russian attack on Ukraine with a new type of ballistic missile was a “clear and severe escalation” in the war and called for strong worldwide condemnation. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the Ukraine war was escalating towards a global conflict after the United States and Britain allowed Ukraine to hit Russia with their weapons, and warned the West that Moscow could strike back. – Reuters

Russia’s weekend missile strikes hit three of the five working thermal plants owned by Ukrainian power giant DTEK and one of them is still offline, an industry source said, illustrating the severity of the latest blow to the national grid. – Reuters

Russian air defence forces have shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday in its daily report on events over the past 24 hours. – Reuters

Russia is ready to consider any “realistic” peace initiative on the conflict in Ukraine which takes into account Russia’s own interests and the situation on the ground, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday. – Reuters

Russia said on Thursday that a new U.S. ballistic missile defence base in northern Poland will lead to an increase in the overall level of nuclear danger, but Warsaw said “threats” from Moscow only strengthened the argument for NATO defences. – Reuters

Marc Champion writes: This is the bottom line. Putin is trying to claw back Russia’s territorial sway; he’s as reluctant to give up the power that comes with empire as were the British, French, Austrians and Ottomans before him. I don’t hear anybody suggesting the world would be a better place with Algeria still a French colony, or Hungary still ruled from Vienna. If those empires had been able to threaten the world if they didn’t get their way, you can be sure they would have. Yet none of this means Putin is ready to invite the radical risks and certain costs of a nuclear strike. – Bloomberg

Dan Hannan writes: World War II, like the Cold War, was a struggle between authoritarianism and liberty. That struggle did not end in 1990. For a while, it looked like our side was winning as country after country moved toward representative government and the rule of law. But, since 2012, the trend has been the other way. The struggle is now being played out in the cold steppes around Kursk. America can, of course, walk away from it. But it cannot walk away from the consequences of walking away. – Washington Examiner

Lebanon

Lebanon is seeking changes to a U.S. ceasefire proposal to ensure a speedier withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon and to give both parties the right to self-defence, a senior Lebanese official said on Thursday. – Reuters

Israeli strikes killed at least 47 people in eastern Lebanon on Thursday, a Lebanese official said, pressing the campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group as a U.S. mediator sought to advance ceasefire talks in Israel. – Reuters

Stuck in no man’s land on the war-hit Lebanon-Syria border, cab driver Fadi Slika now scrapes a living ferrying passengers between two deep craters left by Israeli air strikes. – Agence France-Presse

Korean Peninsula

A senior North Korean general was wounded in a recent Ukrainian strike in Russia’s Kursk region, Western officials said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has accused the United States of ramping up tension and provocations, saying the Korean peninsula has never faced such risks of nuclear war as now, state media KCNA said on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea’s national security adviser Shin Won-sik said on Friday that Russia has provided North Korea with anti-air missiles and air defence equipment in return for sending troops for its war against Ukraine, the Yonhap news agency reported. – Reuters

Ellen Kim writes: In 2022, Kim declared North Korea’s nuclear weapons status “irreversible” and enshrined a policy of first use of nuclear weapons in the country’s constitution. Ultimately, North Korea will demand a significantly higher price to resume dialogue. The new administration needs a new strategy through careful policy review and close policy consultation and coordination with Seoul and Tokyo. Simply reverting to the previous playbook or relying on personal friendship with Kim is not only ineffective but also risks serious consequences for U.S. interests and regional security in Asia. – National Interest

South Asia

Indian opposition parties demanded a probe on Thursday into allegations of wrongdoing by the Adani Group and said they would raise the issue in parliament after its chair Gautam Adani was charged in the U.S. over an alleged bribery scheme. – Reuters

China and Myanmar’s law enforcement agencies have “wiped out” all large-scale telecom fraud centres operating in northern Myanmar, Chinese state media reported on Thursday, after an operation at the weekend saw more than 700 arrested. – Reuters

Sri Lanka expects the IMF to announce a staff level agreement on its third review of the country’s bailout programme on Friday, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told the first sitting of the new parliament. – Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Thursday during a visit to Guyana that his government views the South American country as key to its energy security. – Associated Press

Gunmen opened fire on vehicles carrying Shiite Muslims in Pakistan’s restive northwest on Thursday, killing at least 42 people, including six women, and wounding 20 others in one of the region’s deadliest such attacks in recent years, police said. – Associated Press

A court in Pakistan’s capital has barred the party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan from holding a planned rally in Islamabad on Sunday on the eve of an official visit by the president of Belarus. – Associated Press

Daniel J. Rosenthal writes: Rescuing our Afghan partners will fulfill our sacred promise, taking seriously the terrorist threats from Afghanistan will keep us safe, and closing Guantanamo will end a shameful chapter. Those steps would constitute measurable foreign policy wins that finally put an end to the story of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. As power transfers in Washington, these are steps that both Presidents can and should take. – The Hill

Europe

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was set to run for a second term in upcoming snap elections after his popular Defence Minister Boris Pistorius – a possible replacement – ruled himself out of the running on Thursday. – Reuters

A dispute between Croatia and the European Union over who should investigate a high-profile corruption case involving a former minister deepened on Thursday after the bloc’s chief prosecutor said Zagreb had problems upholding the rule of law. – Reuters

Hungary is going to install an air defence system in the northeastern part of the country as the threat of an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war is “greater than ever”, its defence minister said. – Reuters

Greece saw a change in its main opposition party on Thursday after a wave of defections from the leftist Syriza party opened the door for the centre-left PASOK to challenge the dominance of rightist Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. – Reuters

Irish police investigating a 2022 explosion at a petrol station that killed 10 people have arrested a man who voluntarily presented himself at a police station in relation to the incident, the law firm representing the man said on Thursday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday he would invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Hungary, saying he would guarantee that an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu would “not be observed”. – Reuters

The Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp’s trip to Israel has been postponed, the ministry said on Thursday, confirming an earlier report by Dutch News Agency ANP. – Reuters

Ireland would be prepared to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he came to the country following the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued on Thursday, Prime Minister Simon Harris said. – Reuters

Slovenia will respect arrest warrants for Israel and Hamas leaders issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and “will fully comply”, Prime Minister Robert Golob was quoted as saying by Slovenian news agency STA late on Thursday. – Reuters

A Belarusian opposition figure was detained in Vietnam and extradited to Belarus, where he is facing charges of terrorism and possibly a death penalty, the opposition said Thursday. – Associated Press

A Swiss court has rejected a bid by French-Israeli magnate Beny Steinmetz to scrap his jail sentence in a graft case over mining rights in Guinea. – Agence France-Presse

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Thursday his country would be obliged to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visited, after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant. – Agence France-Presse

David Ignatius writes: My takeaway from these conversations was that Europe knows it needs Trump. France and Germany, the traditional anchors of the European Union, are weak politically and financially. A menacing Russia is at the door. Trump is the leader of a frazzled transatlantic alliance, whether he likes it or not. The gut-check question is how he will work with Europe to stop the current conflict in Ukraine — and avoid another round. – Washington Post

Norbert Röttgen writes: It is now up to Europeans to fulfill the continent’s potential as a credible security actor, thereby salvaging transatlantic relations and checking Russia’s imperialist ambitions. Should this effort fall short—and should U.S. support fall away—the price will be steep. Without strong defenses standing in his way, Putin will have no reason to stop at Ukraine. After decades of relative peace, war could once again become a fixture of European politics. – Foreign Affairs

Emil Avdaliani writes: The ruling party may have weathered the storm but it will face internal challenges in the coming years. Its popularity will be heavily contingent upon how the opposition transforms itself and whether there is a Western willingness to reengage. More risky is a geopolitical situation where Georgia might end up in limbo, somewhere between the West and the Kremlin. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

Brazilian federal police accused former President Jair Bolsonaro and 36 of his allies of plotting a coup to stop President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office in 2023, including plans to assassinate the leftist leader. – Wall Street Journal

Mexico’s first round of elections of judges by popular vote, the product of a contentious constitutional overhaul passed in September, could be pushed back by around three months if the Senate accepts a request by the electoral authority to postpone them, the electoral body’s head said on Thursday. – Reuters

Mexico’s lower house of Congress proposed adjustments on Thursday to the details of a contentious reform that abolishes several regulatory bodies, aiming to ensure compliance with the USMCA trade agreement. – Reuters

Haiti’s foreign minister met with the French ambassador to the nation on Thursday over what the ministry branded as “unfriendly and inappropriate” comments by French President Emmanuel Macron as he left the G20 summit in Brazil. – Reuters

Mexico has a plan to receive deported Mexicans from the U.S. if President-elect Donald Trump launches mass deportations of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

Huawei Technologies plans to roll out its most advanced domestically made phone chip, people familiar with the matter said, showing how the company is able to make strides in semiconductors despite U.S. sanctions. – Wall Street Journal

South Korean police said on Thursday an investigation confirmed that hackers linked to North Korea’s military intelligence agency were responsible for an Ethereum cryptocurrency heist in 2019, worth 58 billion won ($41.5 million) at the time. – Reuters

Chinese hackers, cybercriminals, law enforcement agencies, and phone phreaks of yesteryear have all successfully accessed mobile phones along with the trove of data collected by the devices. – CyberScoop

The Army has sought to improve the training of cyber mission force members it provides to U.S. Cyber Command such that they require less on-the-job instruction. – DefenseScoop

Researchers have identified an ongoing Russia-linked cyber-espionage campaign targeting human rights groups, private security companies, and state and educational institutions in Central Asia, East Asia, and Europe using custom malware. – The Record

Pakistani authorities appear to have blocked access to the social media platform Bluesky as its popularity surges worldwide. – The Record

Hundreds of websites used by an Egyptian cybercriminal to sell “do-it-yourself” phishing kits have been disrupted by Microsoft and LF Projects, the corporate entity behind the Linux Foundation. – The Record

Jason Furman writes: While some AI regulation is warranted, policymakers should proceed cautiously. Well-intentioned efforts could inadvertently slow progress while falling short of their goals. These six principles can help form a balanced and effective approach to regulating AI, one that harnesses its potential while addressing legitimate concerns. – Wall Street Journal