Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday, the court announced on X/Twitter. – Jerusalem Post

The Senate on Wednesday voted down a measure, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders and a handful of Democrats, that sought to block the sale of some $20 billion in U.S.-made weapons to Israel, in a last-ditch effort to limit the carnage, suffering and destruction caused by its 13-month war in Gaza. – Washington Post

Hamas’ acting Gaza chief Khalil al-Hayya said in remarks broadcast on Wednesday that there would be no hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless the war in the Palestinian enclave ended. – Reuters

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said he will travel to Israel on Wednesday to try to secure a ceasefire ending the war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah group after declaring additional progress in talks in Beirut. – Reuters

The United States on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, drawing criticism of the Biden administration for once again blocking international action aimed at halting Israel’s war with Hamas. – Reuters

Israeli officials demanded Wednesday the freedom to strike Lebanon’s Hezbollah as part of any cease-fire deal, raising a potential complication as a top U.S. envoy was in the region attempting to clinch an agreement. – Associated Press

The Kfir Brigade’s combat team has been operating under Division 162 in the Jabalya and Beit Lahiya areas for the past two weeks, neutralizing dozens of terrorists and dismantling over 100 terror infrastructures, the IDF reported on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Three Palestinian residents of Hebron were indicted this week for allegedly forming a terror cell aimed at assassinating National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his son, the police and Shin Bet announced on Thursday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Defense Minister Israel Katz imposed sanctions against 24 major clients of Al-Qard Al-Hasan, a financial institution affiliated with Hezbollah, the Defense Ministry announced on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

The Knesset plenum voted 56-36 in a preliminary reading on Wednesday to pass a bill that would create a new intelligence adviser and staff within the Prime Minister’s Office. – Jerusalem Post

Israel Prison Services (IPS) Commissioner Kobi Yaakobi told the Knesset National Security Committee that a senior Hamas official in prison threatened a war inside Israeli prisons. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The world should recognize Israel’s unique position as a Western democracy in a challenging region and celebrate the extraordinary contributions of its female soldiers. By empowering women in its military, Israel continues to lead the way in demonstrating that equality and strength go hand in hand. – Jerusalem Post

Lawrence J. Haas writes: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has conditioned Saudi-Israeli normalization on Israeli-Palestinian peace, is now accusing Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza while cozying up to Iran, formerly a Saudi enemy. Whether Trump can sweet-talk Riyadh into peace with Jerusalem while he seeks to force Tehran to succumb to “maximum pressure” is a very open question. All told, Trump will bring welcome changes to U.S. policy toward Israel, but those changes could invite missteps by Jerusalem and create new challenges for Washington with other key players across the region. – The Hill

Gerald M. Steinberg writes: The clear objective of HRW’s reports, including this one, is to promote the soft-power war based on arms embargoes, boycotts, and demonization that reinforce the hard war led by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. […] By giving credibility to the propaganda produced by HRW and other NGOs, the international law and human rights community, created in the shadow of the Holocaust, has totally betrayed its mission to protect civilian lives. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine fired a number of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia’s Kursk region on Wednesday, a day after firing American long-range missiles into the country, according to Pentagon and Ukrainian officials. – New York Times

A small band of Ukrainian soldiers was trapped. They were holding the line on the battlefield, but Russian forces had managed to creep in behind their trench and encircle them. – New York Times

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy acknowledged the Crimea peninsula, seized by Russia in 2014, would have to be restored to Ukrainian sovereignty through diplomacy. – Reuters

The Netherlands has handed the final two of 18 promised F-16 fighter jets to a training facility in Romania, where Ukrainian pilots and ground staff are being taught to fly and maintain the planes in battle, the Dutch Defence ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin’s spy chief warned the West on Wednesday that it risked disastrous consequences if the United States and its European allies stoke a direct military confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. – Reuters

Russia will retaliate against NATO countries that facilitate long-range missile strikes against Russian territory by Ukraine, foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said in an interview published on Wednesday. – Reuters

Ukraine said on Wednesday that a Russian command post had been “successfully struck” in the town of Gubkin in Russia’s Belgorod region, around 168 km (105 miles) from the border with Ukraine. – Reuters

The United States said it had reopened its embassy in Kyiv late on Wednesday after it had shut for the day due to what it called the threat of a significant air attack, a day after Ukraine used American missiles to hit a target inside Russia. – Reuters

Walter Clemens writes: If there is a chance that Russia could implode soon, is it the right time to pull the rug from under Ukraine? What straw might break the Kremlin’s back? Shouldn’t the West increase aid to Kyiv while letting it fire Western weapons at military targets inside Russia and beyond Kursk? There is no time to dither. Snow is coming. Millions of Ukrainians face a winter with little or no heat. Their lives, as well as world security, will be shaped by America’s actions and inaction. – Centre for European Policy Analysis

Turkey

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan opposes a U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack inside Russia, saying it would further enflame the conflict, according to a readout shared by his office on Wednesday. – Reuters

Turkey on Wednesday denounced a missile attack targeting a cargo ship in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, saying measures were being taken to prevent any such further incidents. – Agence France-Presse

Wladimir van Wilgenburg writes: Moreover, a peace process could strengthen a Syrian-Kurdish-Turkish opposition front versus the Syrian government in Damascus, which has so far not been open to concessions. In the past, Turkey has opposed any relations between the Syrian opposition and SDF-linked factions. The U.S. support for the SDF has also encouraged Ankara to improve relations with Damascus, Iran and Russia on Syria, through the Astana process versus the Kurds,and the U.S. presence, but domestic peace could strengthen US-Turkish relations. – Washington Institute

Michael Rubin writes: Trump cares about his legacy. He sees himself as a leader who refuses to allow conventional wisdom to define him or officials with their own individual or bureaucratic agendas to limit him. Perhaps then, he should recognize that preserving American security means not only confronting China but also tackling those who would strike America down due to religious hatred. He must recognize the only difference between Turkey today and pre-9/11 Saudi Arabia is that Turkey arms Islamists while it aspires to be a nuclear power. – Washington Examiner

Middle East & North Africa

An Israeli attack on Syria’s historic city of Palmyra killed 36 people and wounded more than 50 on Wednesday after it hit residential buildings and an industrial zone, the Syrian state news agency SANA reported. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that its mission had concluded a visit to Egypt and made substantial progress on policy discussions toward the completion of the fourth review of IMF loan programme. – Reuters

Greek police arrested an Algerian man suspected of smuggling tablets of pain-fighting drug pregabalin to France from Greece, following an operation with French authorities and EU police agency Europol. – Reuters

A prominent Tunisian politician who tried unsuccessfully to stand against President Kais Saied in last month’s elections is undergoing treatment for serious burns sustained from an acid attack. – Bloomberg

Jordan’s army said Wednesday it sent eight helicopters loaded with more than seven tons of aid to Gaza, which is grappling with a humanitarian crisis after more than a year of war. – Agence France-Presse

A Jordanian court sentenced one of the kingdom’s lawmakers to 10 years of hard labor after convicting him of smuggling weapons into the West Bank. – Times of Israel

China

A Chinese ship that sailed over two severed data cables in the Baltic Sea around the time they were cut has been stopped by the Danish navy as part of an international investigation into what police say is a possible act of sabotage. – Wall Street Journal

On his first day in office, leader Xi Jinping inherited an ambitious road map to build 10,000 miles of high-speed rail to link China’s biggest cities. He took those plans and supersized them. – Wall Street Journal

As Xi Jinping prepares for a thorny trade relationship with President-elect Donald Trump, he is cultivating a rapport with someone he calls a like-minded good friend, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. – Wall Street Journal

China Development Bank signed a deal on Wednesday to loan 5 billion yuan ($690 million) to Brazil’s National Bank for Economic and Social Development BNDES, marking BNDES’s first foreign currency operation. – Reuters

Russia and China on Wednesday opposed a U.S.-led campaign to transform the Kenya-led multinational force in Haiti helping police to tackle escalating gang violence into a U.N. peacekeeping mission. – Associated Press

Southeast Asian defense chiefs met Thursday with China, the United States and other partner nations in Laos for security talks, which come as Beijing’s increasingly assertive stance in its claim to most of the South China Sea is leading to more confrontations. – Associated Press

Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected to meet with top foreign executives on Monday ahead of a supply chain expo in Beijing, just as companies brace for Donald Trump’s threat to hike tariffs on Chinese goods. – Bloomberg

Editorial: President-elect Trump is committed to freeing Mr. Lai. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer also raised the mistreatment of Mr. Lai, a British citizen, this week with Mr. Xi during the G-20 summit in Brazil. Officials in Hong Kong and Beijing may stomp their feet, but until Mr. Lai and others are set free, the world is going to make it more difficult for business as usual with either. – Wall Street Journal

Kyle Balzer and Dan Blumenthal write: Washington should exploit its asymmetric strengths and focus on revitalizing its credibility among its allies, exacerbating Beijing’s distinct vulnerabilities, and ultimately tipping the cost-benefit balance for China’s nuclear-backed coercion campaign. Once it appreciates the subtle role that China’s nuclear buildup plays in advancing Beijing’s geopolitical agenda, the United States can shift its own policies to maintain the status quo. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

A looming trade war would create many headaches for Asia. Add a strengthening dollar to that list. The greenback’s value has risen since Donald Trump’s re-election in part because his proposed massive tariffs, tax cuts and crackdown on immigration are expected to push up inflation. – Wall Street Journal

Japan’s ruling coalition on Wednesday agreed with a key opposition party on the draft of an economic stimulus package, clearing a major hurdle for the $87 billion package designed to help cushion the blow to households from rising prices. – Reuters

Australia’s centre-left government on Thursday introduced a bill in parliament that aims to ban social media for children under 16 and proposed fines of up to A$49.5 million ($32 million) for social media platforms for systemic breaches. – Reuters

Japanese officials said Wednesday they are closely watching to see if China keeps its promise to prevent further violations of Japan’s airspace after explaining that an incursion by a Chinese military aircraft nearly three months ago was unintentional and caused by turbulence. – Associated Press

Cambodia’s National Assembly unanimously approved the reappointment of Prak Sokhonn as foreign minister Wednesday. – Associated Press

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Wednesday that a deal has been reached for Indonesia to send home a Filipino death-row drug convict who was nearly executed by firing squad but got a reprieve due to years of pleadings from Manila. – Associated Press

New Zealand designated the entirety of Hezbollah as a terrorist entity on Wednesday, in an adjustment to its 2010 decision to list just the military wing. – Times of Israel

Karishma Vaswani writes: Discussions about why the Māori are disproportionately represented in poverty and prison metrics also need to take place. None of this is easy, but it could bring to the surface viewpoints that need to be carefully thrashed out, before they’re exploited for political gain. The alternative is an environment where Seymour’s dangerous rhetoric can thrive. From India to Indonesia, colonial history has been difficult to confront. The debate over indigenous rights shows how deep these old wounds can run. – Bloomberg

Africa

Three years ago, the United States imposed sanctions against the ruling party of Eritrea, a small and brutally repressive country in the Horn of Africa. And yet, Eritrea’s embassy in Washington has helped raise millions of dollars on behalf of the cash-strapped country since then, while Eritrean officials acknowledge that the government and the ruling party are one. – Washington Post

Mali’s Prime Minister Choguel Maiga has been fired, state television ORTM said on Wednesday of the civilian who criticised the ruling junta’s failure to organise elections within a promised 24-month transition back to democracy. – Reuters

Opposition politicians in Democratic Republic of Congo called on Wednesday for nationwide protests against President Felix Tshisekedi’s plans to revise the constitution. – Reuters

A Malian Islamist who helped run the police force imposing sharia law on Timbuktu after the city was captured by militants in 2012 was sentenced to 10 years in prison by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Wednesday. – Reuters

Southern African leaders resolved Wednesday to extend for another year the presence of regional troops deployed to fight rebels in conflict-torn eastern Congo, and also pledged to work toward peace in Mozambique, where disputed elections stoked unrest. – Associated Press

Mozambique’s post-election unrest has left at least 67 people dead over the past month, according to a local monitoring group that’s been tracking the violence. – Bloomberg

Militants operating in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are violating the terms of a peace accord that was signed in late July and the civilian population is suffering as a result, the head of a regional trading bloc said. – Bloomberg

United States

Investment banker Howard Lutnick’s exposure to China came into sharp relief on Wednesday, after Republican President-elect Donald Trump tapped him to lead the agencies that have become the tip of the spear in the U.S.-China trade war. – Reuters

The Biden administration told Congress it plans to cancel $4.65 billion in debt owed by Ukraine, according to a letter obtained by Bloomberg News, the latest in a series of moves meant to bolster support for Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. – Bloomberg

Editorial: As Representative Dean Phillips observes in answering AOC’s X posting, the “anti-pragmatic and anti-semitic interests” are the ones pushing a “wildly unpopular agenda” that “pushes voters away” from Democrats. Now, as a new administration sweeps in, it is worth remembering that more is at stake than a popularity contest. Taking our political fringe too seriously could cost Israeli and American lives, and significantly harm America’s Mideast interests. – New York Sun

Jakub Grygiel writes: Now that some restrictions have been lifted, it may be too late to alter the conditions on the front line and certainly to undo the devastation wrought by Russia on Ukraine’s economy and energy infrastructure. This is a poor use of the best geopolitical asset we have: our allies. When the frontier is on fire, Washington should unleash our allies that want to defend themselves and thus restore a beneficial equilibrium in their regions. – Wall Street Journal

Tom Rogan writes: But Washington also needs more honesty. I believe that some arms supplies in support of Ukraine are necessary and pursuant to U.S. national security interests. But those arms supplies cannot exist as an open checkbook without incurring significant costs to preeminent U.S. national security concerns. And the debate over what constitutes an acceptable risk should be enjoined far more openly. – Washington Examiner

Defense

In a first, the U.S. Army and Lockheed Martin fired two new Precision Strike Missiles, or PrSMs, in a salvo test shot as part of production qualification flight testing at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, Lockheed announced. – Defense News

President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled his pick for a key national security position, selecting Matthew Whitaker to serve in his second administration as U.S. ambassador to NATO. – DefenseScoop

Editorial: Addressing broader shortfalls will be more complicated. Pentagon planners need to revise munitions requirements to match the scale of the threat. Congress should approve more multiyear purchases to give manufacturers an incentive to keep production lines humming. Legislators could help by passing budgets on time rather than constantly resorting to continuing resolutions. The US will need to invest far more in its defense-industrial base, strengthen critical supply chains, and enlist allies such as Japan and Australia to coproduce more weapons. – Bloomberg