Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

An explosion Monday rocked the second floor of a hospital in Gaza, killing about a dozen people, including patients, according to hospital staff and Palestinian officials. – Wall Street Journal

Even amid a war of searing brutality, the images shared around the world were striking: babies in a Gaza City hospital removed from their incubators, tiny arms straining and beating at tiny chests. – Washington Post

The chief of Hamas told Reuters on Tuesday that the Palestinian militant group was near a truce agreement with Israel, even as the deadly assault on Gaza continued and rockets were being fired into Israel. – Reuters

Deadly strikes hit the Gaza home of a news photographer days after an Israeli media advocacy group questioned his coverage of Hamas’ Oct. 7, prompting death threats against him on social media.  – Reuters

Israel’s far-right finance minister, who has so far been excluded from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet, called on Monday for lawmakers taking a harder line towards Hamas to be included in decisions about the war. – Reuters

A group of U.S. President Joe Biden’s fellow Democrats urged him on Monday to encourage Israel to take immediate steps – including reopening a major border crossing – to help provide humanitarian aid for innocent civilians in Gaza. – Reuters

The head of the World Health Organisation said on Monday he was “appalled” by an attack on the Indonesian Hospital in Gaza that he said had killed 12 people, including patients, citing unspecified reports. – Reuters

Three weeks ago, the Israeli military unveiled a detailed 3D model of Gaza’s Shifa Hospital – showing a series of underground installations that it said was part of an elaborate Hamas command and control center under the territory’s largest health-care center. – Associated Press

A UN protectorate in Gaza after the current Israel-Hamas war would not solve the conflict there, the world body’s secretary-general said Monday, calling instead for a “transition period,” involving Arab nations and the United States, and leading to a two-state solution. – Agence France-Presse

Mosques can now be added to the growing list of facilities in Gaza that Hamas terrorists have been using for military purposes after Israel released images Monday of a large cache of weapons, what is described as a “rocket-making workshop,” and a tunnel entrance at a house of prayer in Gaza. – New York Sun

Israeli officials could face targeted sanctions in response to a surge in violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, U.S. officials have warned. – Washington Examiner

MK Mansour Abbas, leader of the Arab Islamist Ra’am Party, met with families of some of those held hostage in Gaza. He received a petition of Nobel laureates from them and a legal document signed by legal experts calling for the immediate release of the more than 30 captive children. Attached with the petition and the legal document was a letter from the families. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces has seen a number of incidents of so-called “friendly fire” during fighting in the Gaza Strip, some of them with deadly results, The Times of Israel has learned, as Israeli troops engaged Monday in intense combat while pushing forward with the military campaign in the Hamas-ruled enclave. – Times of Israel

The families of the hostages kidnapped from Israel last month and their supporters expressed outrage in various rallies and campaigns on World Children’s Day on Monday over the silence from international bodies like the UN regarding the 40 children and babies being held by terrorists in Gaza. – Algemeiner

New details have been published showing how Israeli troops are securing the civilian evacuation route from Gaza City. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: Had the IDF command listened to the spotters, who knew the sector well and were issuing a red alert, everything would have looked different. And had it not left them defenseless in their outposts, dozens of spotters who were killed or taken hostage would still be with us today. We can only hope that the postwar commission to investigate this catastrophic failure will listen to the spotters from the Gaza Battalion more attentively than they were listened to during the run-up to October 7. – Haaretz

Marc Champion writes: Just as important, neither offers long-term security for Israel, because as the current conflict shows, the Palestinian question is not just a domestic issue, but one that has the power to draw the entire Middle East into its vortex, amid a balance of power that may not always favor Israel. Both of these paths would put the Jewish state at greater risk than anything Hamas has the power to do. – Bloomberg

Jill Goldenziel writes: Given Hamas’s history of using schools, mosques, and hospitals for military purposes, this likely will not be Israel’s last attack on a sensitive target in Gaza. Israel would be wise to document and publicize its feasible precautions to minimize unnecessary suffering at Al-Shifa — and to take those precautions as early as possible. The law has requirements — and the world wants receipts. – Bloomberg

Avraham Shama writes: Israel and the Palestinians must be made to realize that to live by the sword is to die by the sword and peace negotiation is a better path. Twice in the past — in the Oslo Agreement and the Abraham Accords — Israel and the Palestinians were close to a peace agreement. Now, the Gaza War may have provided the motivation to reach a new agreement. – The Hill

Alan Shatter writes: A new, temporary international governance of Gaza is required, together with a dedicated aid and recovery program. Thereafter, there should be elections for a new Palestinian administration, dedicated to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, to govern a united, demilitarized West Bank and Gaza as a preliminary step to the initiation of a process intended to ultimately implement a two-state solution. – Jerusalem Post

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: On the other hand, leaked intelligence to date has indicated that a minuscule number of Hamas leaders – only at the very top – knew the full scale of the terrorist group’s October 7 plans, so maybe Unit 504 would not have helped. Still, the public will demand changes to the intelligence establishment once probing the war’s failures begins, and Unit 504, which was clearly not involved, may get another shot at being in the spotlight. – Jerusalem Post

Amos Yadlin and Udi Evental write: The last time Israel faced a challenge even remotely like this was in 1973. And at first, the Yom Kippur War seemed like a defeat for Israel; the Arab states certainly saw it that way. In the end, however, Israel came out on top, and its victory led to a groundbreaking peace agreement with Egypt—an outcome that set in motion virtually every positive development that has taken place in the region since then. It is too early to tell whether Israel will be able to once again turn suffering and loss into peace and progress. But even in this grim new reality, there is some cause for hope. – Foreign Affairs

Seth Mandel writes: This time, it has let down the hostages in every way imaginable. At the end of its note on the 1944 Nobel Peace Prize, the committee writes: “The Red Cross has since expressed regret for this suppression of the facts.” How long will it take them to come clean this time, and what will it require to ensure there is no repeat of the ICRC’s Gaza disaster? – Commentary

Russia & Ukraine

Every day, groups of Russian infantry attack the tree lines and pockmarked fields east of this village, which block their push to surround the city of Avdiivka. Every day, Ukrainian troops cut most of them down. – Wall Street Journal

Earlier this year, Alsu Kurmasheva, a dual Russian-U.S. citizen and journalist for U.S.-government funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, faced a difficult choice. She wanted to travel to the Russian city of Kazan to see her ailing mother. But her employer and the U.S. government had warned against travel to Russia, with the State Department saying that American citizens risked being singled out for arrest. – Wall Street Journal

For months, even as progress stalled on the battlefield, President Biden has insisted that Washington will stand by Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III visited the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Monday, vowing support for its government at a time when progress in the war against Russia as well as U.S. military aid have both stalled. – New York Times

The agony came in waves as the wounded Ukrainian soldier in the back of the ambulance slipped in and out of consciousness. The driver, hurtling past cratered fields on roads thick with mud, was racing to escape Russian artillery fire north of the city of Avdiivka, while hoping he was not spotted by drones. – New York Times

Chairman of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, Vyacheslav Volodin, will lead a delegation to China from Nov. 21 to 23, Chinese state media reported on Monday. – Reuters

Ukrainian forces were engaged in containing increasing Russian attacks on Monday around the shattered eastern town of Bakhmut, military officials said. – Reuters

Two people were killed and six were wounded in overnight Russian missile attacks and shelling in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met Fox Corp (FOXA.O) CEO Lachlan Murdoch in the Ukrainian capital in what Kyiv said on Monday was a “very important signal” of support at a time when global media attention has shifted from the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

It happens every November, when the cold descends on Kyiv. The change in weather always makes Dmytro Riznychenko think back, and he is overwhelmed by his emotions. – Associated Press

As Moscow introduces a new modified glide version of cluster bomb to the hotspots of fighting in southern Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces might be up against a more effective Russian air force in the depths of late fall and winter fighting. – Newsweek

Lee Hockstader writes: Russia has shifted to a wartime economy to finance its aggression in Ukraine and very possibly elsewhere. As an autocracy, it is less susceptible to the mounting pressures that will result. Europe’s ability to respond will shape the West’s new security posture as much as or more than anything Washington devises. That challenge looms right now. – Washington Post

Peter Schroeder writes: Ultimately, the crisis precipitated by Hamas’s large-scale attack on Israel could help determine the future of the Middle East. Moscow, however, is unlikely to have much of a role in shaping it—if it has any at all. There is not likely to be another Madrid Conference. Whereas Russia was central to the discussions around the Syrian civil war a decade ago, the future trajectory of the Middle East is likely to emerge from the Gaza crisis without any significant input from Moscow. – Foreign Policy

Lebanon

In the days after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in southern Israel, Orna Rayn searched frantically for someone to build a wooden barricade to secure the door of a safe room in her house about 6 miles from the Lebanon border. – Wall Street Journal

President Joe Biden’s energy security adviser Amos Hochstein was traveling to Israel on Monday to discuss issues related to the northern border with Lebanon, including how to stop the Gaza conflict from spreading, a U.S. official said. – Reuters

Skirmishes between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah continued Monday amid Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, with the Iran-backed terror group firing rockets and launching drones at northern Israel, causing heavy damage to an army base in one of the attacks. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

The International Red Cross president travelled to Qatar on Monday to meet with the leader of Palestinian group Hamas to “advance humanitarian issues” related to the group’s conflict with Israel, the Geneva-based body said in a statement. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will host a meeting in Moscow on Tuesday of foreign ministers from members of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to discuss the situation in Gaza, the RIA news agency reported on Monday. – Reuters

A newly formed group made up of senior officials from several Muslim countries will visit the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members and others to urge an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, a Turkish foreign ministry source said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Health officials said 31 premature babies in “extremely critical condition” were transferred safely Sunday from Gaza’s main hospital and will go to Egypt, while over 250 patients with severely infected wounds and other urgent conditions remained stranded days after Israeli forces entered the compound to look for Hamas operations. – Associated Press

China

A spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry said late Monday that Australia’s account of the encounter last week between a Chinese destroyer and divers removing fishing nets from the propellers of an Australian navy frigate near Japan was “completely inconsistent with the facts.” – Wall Street Journal

China reaffirmed its support on Monday for new countries joining the BRICS grouping of developing nations, even as Argentina’s likely next foreign minister was quoted as saying that her country would no longer do so. – Reuters

China has facilitated transit through the country from northern Myanmar amid the conflict there as some parties have been asking for assistance, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

The People’s Bank of China and the Saudi Central Bank recently signed a local currency swap agreement worth 50 billion yuan ($6.93 billion) or 26 billion Saudi riyals, both banks said on Monday, as bilateral relations continued to gather momentum. – Reuters

A top Chinese Communist Party official said that Israel has flouted the Palestinian rights of “survival and their right of return” to the territory of the Jewish state. – Washington Examiner

Chinese defense contractors used the Dubai Airshow, which ran from Nov. 13-17, as a springboard for increased regional military cooperation with Beijing, a trend that U.S. leaders see as worrying. – Defense News

Garima Mohan and Chris J. Murphy write: Within European responses, the difference between Western and Eastern European countries is another trend to note. And finally, the assessment of the trans-Atlantic relationship is rather sober, as most European respondents see U.S. influence either staying the same or declining in the next five years, while China continues to rise. – Foreign Policy

John Lee writes: The era of light-touch diplomacy is over. Washington cannot assume that merely promulgating American principles or lifting trade restrictions and lowering tariffs will win it security partners. If the United States is to resist China’s challenge on both economic and military fronts, it must rally its allies and friends in Asia. These countries’ past inaction served Beijing’s objectives, but their agency today will serve Washington’s. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Australia said it won’t cancel a Chinese company’s lease on a commercial port despite concerns that the firm’s operations pose a security risk at a strategic location in the north of the country. – Wall Street Journal

Taiwan’s people have to make a choice at next year’s election about whether the island keeps moving forward on the road to democracy or “walks into the embrace of China”, the frontrunner to be the next president said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said on Tuesday that cabinet has approved a draft law on marriage equality and that it would be brought to parliament during a session starting in December. – Reuters

A Japanese delegation led by senior industry and foreign ministry officials and including business representatives visits Ukraine on Monday for talks ahead of a reconstruction conference that Japan will host, the industry ministry said. – Reuters

The front-runner in Taiwan’s presidential race has picked the long-term de facto ambassador to the United States as his vice presidential candidate. – Associated Press

Asia-Pacific nations want the US engaged in the region both economically and militarily as a counterweight to an increasingly assertive China, according to the new head of the Council on Foreign Relations. – Bloomberg

Senators unanimously passed legislation last week that would cut off U.S. security aid to Azerbaijan for the next two years amid growing concerns that it may invade southern Armenia in the near future. – Defense News

Japan is one step closer to acquiring 400 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles and support systems as part of a $2.35 billion foreign military sales case, the State Department announced on Friday. Meanwhile, Australia has accused China of unsafe and unprofessional conduct when a used an active sonar system in the East China Sea while Royal Australian Navy (RAN) divers were in the water nearby. – USNI News

Africa

Israel has recalled for consultations its ambassador to South Africa following the “latest statements from South Africa”, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

Joseph Boakai has been elected president of Liberia with 50.64% of the vote, beating President George Weah who got 49.36%, according to final results announced by the election commission on Monday. – Reuters

Madagascar’s incumbent President Andry Rajoelina has cemented his lead in an election marked by low turnout and an opposition boycott, and appeared poised to secure a third term on Monday, with over a third of voting centres reporting results. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday he was completely committed to his government’s scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda after the UK’s top judges last week ruled it was unlawful. – Reuters

His harrowing testimony was among dozens – including accounts from women who alleged sexual enslavement – collected as part of an exclusive documentary by CNN about the humanitarian toll exacted by the ongoing fight between Sudan’s ruling military and the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). – CNN

Congolese businessman and opposition leader Moise Katumbi launched his presidential campaign on Monday, five years after the regime in power at the time blocked him from running. – Fox News

United States

Humanitarian organizations met privately with national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday to discuss ways to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, two people familiar with the meeting said. – Politico

Editorial: He was elected because he was advertised to be a centrist. His support for Israel as it is under terrorist attack fits this centrism. But staff appointed by Biden are far younger and more radical than either the president or the voters who elected him. Biden needs to summon what strength he has, reassert control over his administration, and start firing the rebels. – Washington Examiner

Douglas E. Schoen and Saul Mangel write: If Biden hopes to avoid the fate of Jimmy Carter, whose blowout defeat in 1980 was due in large part to economic and geopolitical challenges similar to those facing Biden, he must find a way to ensure that the United States stands by the commitments we’ve made to our allies, and to the world. – The Hill

Defense

Electronic warfare in the Middle East and Ukraine is affecting air travel far from the battlefields, unnerving pilots and exposing an unintended consequence of a tactic that experts say will become more common. – New York Times

It can take years to fully train an F-16 fighter pilot. “Moonfish” – a Ukrainian military aviator – has about six months. – CNN

The data of some Canadian government employees — including current and former members of the Canadian Armed Forces and Royal Canadian Mounted Police personnel — was leaked during a cyberattack on the systems of a government contractor used for relocation services. – The Record

Peter Suciu writes: A 7th-generation aircraft will likely be autonomously controlled and perhaps directed by a human controller/operator on the ground far from the battlespace. It also is possible it could be capable of hypersonic flight and be made of materials that further enhance its stealth characteristics. Yet, it is just as likely that air defense technologies and improved missiles could ground future fighter development. Instead, we could see drone swarms that are launched to take out air defenses to allow a bomber with standoff capabilities to strike enemy targets. – The National Interest