Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel launched a wave of air and artillery strikes that killed at least 25 people in Gaza on Wednesday, according to local health officials, after the military said “several terrorists” had “opened fire toward the area” where troops were operating in Khan Younis in the enclave’s south. – Washington Post

A Gaza company that operates water desalination plants serving nearly half of the enclave’s population said on Tuesday it had resumed operations after Hamas-led security freed a staff member whom they detained on Monday. – Reuters

Recently foiled Hamas terrorist plots in Europe were planned in Qatar and possibly Turkey, the Mossad intelligence agency said Wednesday, detailing results of a lengthy probe into the busted schemes. – Times of Israel

A former senior health ministry official was accused of forging entry permits for Palestinians to illegally enter Israel through means of fraud and bribery, Israel Police announced on Thursday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Syrian buffer zone on Wednesday, accompanied by Defense Minister Israel Katz, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and other senior officials, the Prime Minister’s Office said, on the day a hearing in his criminal trial was cancelled. – Haaretz

Elbit Systems will upgrade the Israel Defense Forces’ Markava main battle tanks under a $210 million contract, the company said this week. – Defense News

Editorial: Hamas has also rejected the U.N. resolution because the group’s leaders say it does not clearly guarantee a future Palestinian state. That was the same reason other countries on the Security Council were initially reluctant to back the plan. But the critics backed it anyway because of language that says if all the other steps are completed, “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” That sounds reasonable enough, but much of the Israeli population remains skeptical of a two-state solution, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said before the vote that “our opposition to a Palestinian state on any territory has not changed.” Hamas remains the primary obstacle to peace, but Israel also has tough choices ahead. – Washington Post

Ilan Amit writes: That means investing in interdependence: moshavim and kibbutzim, towns and cities, haredim, Arabs, and secular Jews alike. Research has shown that social infrastructure and community preparedness are far more valuable for resilience than physical infrastructure alone. We all saw what happened to the NIS 5b. border barrier; it fell in minutes on October 7. But it was local civilian response teams and the actions of ordinary residents that saved countless lives. The diversity of the Negev is a blessing, but only if every community is able to thrive together. Let’s ensure that the Bedouin community is not left out of the picture – for the sake of the entire Negev. – Jerusalem Post

Maya Carlin writes: While the majority of these projectiles are short-range, Iran has provided Hamas with the technology and training required to domestically manufacture some of the longer-range rockets the group has launched within the Gaza Strip. Over the last two-plus years of warfare, Israel has significantly reduced Hamas’s weapons arsenal and personnel count. However, the terror group is unlikely to voluntarily disarm its remaining stockpiles as part of the ongoing ceasefire. Tracking the group’s smuggling efforts across the region and into North Africa should remain a top concern for Israel. – National Interest

Russia and Ukraine

The Trump administration has drafted a 28-point peace plan that calls for Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia and drop demands for a peacekeeping force to deter future attacks by Moscow, U.S. officials said, resurfacing ideas that Kyiv has already rejected. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine used U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, the first time it has acknowledged deploying the systems, known as Atacms, since President Trump lifted restrictions on their use. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has told associates he plans to leave the administration in January, four sources told Reuters, a departure that would mean the loss of a key advocate for Ukraine in the Trump administration. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that contacts with the United States continued but that there were no new developments to announce on a possible peace plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. – Reuters

Britain said it shares U.S. President Donald Trump’s goal of ending the war in Ukraine and urged Russia to withdraw its forces, after Reuters reported that Washington has pressed Kyiv to accept a U.S.-drafted peace framework. – Reuters

Ukrainian lawmakers fired two ministers ensnared in a major corruption probe on Wednesday and called for more sweeping measures to restore faith in the country’s leadership as the scandal provokes the country’s biggest wartime political crisis. – Reuters

Ukraine has asked the Vatican to formalize its role facilitating negotiations over the return of Ukrainian children and civilians taken by Russia during the nearly four-year war, a Kyiv government official said Wednesday. – Associated Press

When the latest US sanctions against Russia’s oil industry hit last month, Bulgaria had an urgent problem. One of the companies targeted, Lukoil PJSC, owned the country’s biggest oil refinery, a legacy of cozy ties with Moscow. – Bloomberg

A US military delegation met with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv on Wednesday as part of a fresh bid by President Donald Trump to rejuvenate peace talks with Russia, even as another US-Russian proposal modeled on the Gaza ceasefire got a tepid reception from Ukraine’s supporters. – Bloomberg

American allies and Ukrainian officials were scrambling on Wednesday to understand the terms of a Trump administration peace proposal for Ukraine, with many worrying it meant the U.S. could cave to Russian demands in a rush to end the fighting. – Politico

Editorial: Nor are new allegations of a “corruption plot in Ukraine to skim €100 million from the country’s energy sector,” as Politico reports, encouraging the Europeans to lavish funds on Kyiv. Yet President Volodymyr Zelensky seems oblivious, Owen Matthews writes in London’s Telegraph, racking up billions of dollars in orders for new jets. In the end, someone is going to have to foot the bill for this war, even if Ukraine’s independence is, not to put too fine a point on it, priceless. – New York Sun

Andi Hoxhaj writes: Building resilient, transparent institutions that uphold the rule of law — even if it means confronting those closest to the president — is not optional; it is central to Ukraine’s survival. The Energoatom scandal is a stark warning: Corruption is as dangerous as Russian missiles. After his summer attempts to weaken anti-corruption institutions, Zelensky cannot allow this scandal to be swept under the rug as merely another unfortunate mistake. Ukraine cannot fight a war on two fronts. Defeating Russia will require not only courage on the battlefield but also a relentless fight against corruption and a firm commitment to the rule of law at home. – Washington Post

Maya Carlin writes: Developed by Shahed Aviation Industries, the Shaheds are loitering munitions often referred to as “suicide” drones. Able to linger around their targets prior to detonating, the Shaheds have proven to be cheap and deadly contributors to Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. Last year, an Iranian-designed Mohajer-6 unmanned aerial vehicle fully armed with Qaem-5 air-to-ground bombs was used in a Russian attack targeting Kursk Oblast in Ukraine. Clearly, the partnership between Tehran and Moscow is only expanding as the war rages on. – National Interest

Stavros Atlamazoglou writes: Thus, training for a new type of fighter jet is not easy. And it is particularly hard if that type of fighter has been designed with a completely different mindset. So, it will take a significant amount of time for the Ukrainian Air Force to establish the pilot and maintainer structure to support so many new fighter jets of different types. But if it successfully pulls off the transition, it will become one of the most powerful air forces in Europe. – National Interest

Saudi Arabia

President Trump was in a celebratory mood during a private candlelit dinner at the White House honoring Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. – Wall Street Journal

The F-35 fighter jets the U.S. plans to sell Saudi Arabia will be less advanced than those operated by Israel, in line with a U.S. law that guarantees Israel’s military edge in the region, U.S. officials and defense experts said on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.S. lawmakers cautioned against ushering in a nuclear arms race in the Middle East after the United States and Saudi Arabia said they signed an initial agreement on civil nuclear energy cooperation. – Reuters

President Donald Trump quipped that it would just take just one day for the US to approve the billions in advanced fighter jets, tanks and other weapons that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has pledged to buy. – Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was in Washington this week discussing billions of dollars in weapons deals with the US. But his air force is still struggling to pay off a bill for a tiny fraction of that amount from years ago. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump said $270 billion in deals are being signed at a US-Saudi Investment Forum, the latest in a series of huge numbers he’s announced during this week’s visit to Washington by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. – Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia is releasing a U.S. citizen who was jailed over social media posts critical of the royal family, returning home after President Trump’s bilateral meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington, D.C. – The Hill

Editorial: While cultivating an image as a modernizer — allowing women to drive, expanding entertainment venues, hosting comedy festivals and curbing the powers of the religious police — Mohammed presided over a ruthless crackdown on dissent. Saudi Arabia carried out hundreds of executions in 2025, including journalist Turki al-Jasser and political opponents. Toasting MBS at the dinner in his honor, Trump called Saudi Arabia “a modern-day miracle.” – Washington Post

Editorial: In 1981, Congress lacked the votes to prevent the Awacs sale, and, Safire reported, “exactly one day after its triumph in the U.S. Senate, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its oil by $2 a barrel.” That was an early signal, he later wrote, that “the overtures to the Arabs produced nothing.” In words that echo amid today’s proposed F-35 sale, Safire said: “We should remind ourselves that in the end, our most reliable allies are nations that share our democratic traditions.” – New York Sun

Rachel Oswald writes: “That’s a different discussion for a different day about how to develop a peaceful nuclear capability in Saudi Arabia,” Graham said. “They have a lot of uranium, and I think that would be part of a bigger deal in terms of [nonproliferation].” In theory, Congress can vote down any 123 agreement, but in practice, there is a very high bar for doing so because of the presidential veto, Sokolski said. Still, the congressional oversight process can be used to build pressure for concessions or tweaks to nuclear cooperation deals. – Foreign Policy

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s coast guard launched an investigation on Thursday into a ferry that ran aground overnight, arresting the first officer and an Indonesian crew member for suspected gross negligence, officers said. – Reuters

South Korea is stepping up its outreach to Middle Eastern buyers as it pursues potential weapons contracts worth $15 billion in the United Arab Emirates, seeking to build on its success in Europe and solidify its reputation as a dependable arms supplier. – Bloomberg

Jamie Kwong writes: South Korea will also need to think through the implications of acquiring this capability, especially as relevant to the nonproliferation dimensions of naval nuclear propulsion by nonnuclear states. The international community will want clarity on how South Korea will continue to deliver on and demonstrate its commitment to its nonproliferation obligations. How can South Korea become a responsible steward of naval nuclear propulsion? Whatever the decisions in Seoul, there are choppy waters ahead. – Foreign Policy

South Asia

Pakistan army chief Asim Munir put up a strong show in a short conflict with India earlier this year—becoming only the second army officer in Pakistan to earn the title of field marshal—and successfully reset ties with U.S. President Trump, who hosted Munir at the White House in June and has called the general his “favorite field marshal.” – Wall Street Journal

Afghanistan’s Taliban trade minister arrived in India on Wednesday on a maiden visit to draw greater investments and goods as both countries consider ways to enhance their relations in the backdrop of souring relations with neighbouring Pakistan. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of Javelin anti-tank missile system and Excalibur guided artillery munitions worth $93 million to India, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s Supreme Court on Thursday restored a nonpartisan caretaker government system for national elections but said it won’t apply to the polls being held early next year. – Associated Press 

Pakistani security forces raided two Pakistani Taliban hideouts in the country’s northwest near the Afghan border, triggering intense shootouts that left 23 militants dead, the military said Thursday. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: This is visible at international summits, most recently in Saudi Arabia, Beijing and Washington. Sharif brings him to meetings, introduces him to foreign leaders, and then the general steps back and lets the prime minister do the talking. The courtesies of civilian supremacy are punctiliously observed, while real power ebbs away — or, perhaps, is handed over. Pakistan’s fragile democracy is damaged either way. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: Fortunately, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not Carter and pursues a robust rather than self-flagellating foreign policy. Still, as the 19th-century American novelist Mark Twain supposedly quipped, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.” As Yunus pushes Bangladesh down the same path that Khomeini took Iran, India should learn the lessons from that episode: Stand firm, make no compromise, and support Sheikh Hasina and perhaps even seek to restore her rule. To appease Yunus and his Islamist backers would be no more effective than Carter’s appeasement was toward Khomeini with regard to the future trajectory of relations. – Firstpost

Aparna Pande writes: The least likely scenario is that things worsen on multiple fronts. This would mean that trade negotiations continue to drag on without reaching a resolution. Prolonging the conflict in Ukraine could heighten public pressure from the Trump administration on India regarding its Moscow links. In this scenario, the administration’s emphasis on the Middle East might lead to increased economic investment and military backing for Pakistan. This would cause the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Quad to be relegated in importance. – Hudson Institute

Europe

The European Union proposed a multibillion-euro spending plan to improve the transport of weapons and troops and to support defense technology startups, as tensions with Russia remain high. – Wall Street Journal

The European Commission laid out a plan to simplify how companies follow its stack of tech regulations in a bid to support innovation in the bloc. – Wall Street Journal

Tensions spiked Wednesday as Poland, a key NATO supporter of Ukraine, accused Russia of “an act of state terrorism” and vowed a strong response to an explosion that damaged a rail line in eastern Poland over the weekend. – Washington Post

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil defended free markets during his China trip, but said competition must be fair and if industries are subsidised, the European market must be protected. – Reuters

British defence minister John Healey said on Wednesday that “military options” are ready should the Russian spy ship Yantar become a threat after it directed lasers at British pilots sent to monitor it. – Reuters

Lithuania will reopen its border crossings with Belarus, ending a closure imposed in response to airspace disruptions by smugglers’ balloons, the Baltic republic said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Poland said on Wednesday it would close the last Russian consulate in its territory and deploy thousands of soldiers to protect infrastructure in response to a railway explosion it blames on Moscow. – Reuters

Slovakia wants NATO to boost air defences in the country, on its eastern flank, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said after a meeting with the military alliance’s chief. – Reuters

Italy’s top court has approved the handover to Germany of a Ukrainian man suspected of coordinating the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, his lawyer Nicola Canestrini said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Germany passed its first national space security strategy, calling for the development of a “robust and deterrent” satellite infrastructure to guarantee orbital safety. – Bloomberg

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s cabinet approved legislation that enables the Bundeswehr armed forces to shoot down unidentified drones suspected of spying on military bases, industrial facilities and other critical infrastructure. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Colombia’s military will continue carrying out bombing operations to curb the expansion of illegal armed groups, despite the recent deaths of at least 12 children and teenagers in three airstrikes against a FARC dissident group, Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Cuba’s imports of crude and fuel in the first 10 months of the year fell more than a third compared with the same period of 2024 as key allies Mexico and Venezuela slashed supplies, according to shipping data and documents seen by Reuters, preventing the Caribbean country from easing daily power cuts. – Reuters

Trade between Latin America and the Caribbean will likely grow in 2025 despite broad U.S. tariffs across the region, which have had a weaker impact than initially expected, a report by UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) revealed on Wednesday. – Reuters

Colombian president Gustavo Petro has publicly released his bank records in an effort to demonstrate he has no ties to drug trafficking, an unsubstantiated claim made by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Associated Press

Colombia said it would favor a path for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to hand over power to a transition government tasked with organizing new elections — preferring the idea over the alternative of a more forceful US intervention in its neighbor’s affairs. – Bloomberg

Criminal gangs expanded their presence in the Brazilian Amazon last year and are now operating in nearly half of the region’s municipalities, according to a report published Wednesday by a prominent nonprofit organization. – CNN 

Michael Albertus writes: As if those conditions for coaxing Maduro from office weren’t adverse enough, there is also a very real threat of punishment from the United States. As long as the punishment dilemma remains unresolved, it should be no surprise that Maduro and his military allies are digging in, even under threat of war. – Foreign Policy

United States

President Trump said he would meet with Zohran Mamdani at the White House on Friday at the New York mayor-elect’s request. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump signed legislation authorizing the Justice Department to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, giving Attorney General Pam Bondi 30 days to make available unclassified documents related to the disgraced financier and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Border Patrol is monitoring millions of American drivers nationwide in a secretive program to identify and detain people whose travel patterns it deems suspicious, The Associated Press has found. – Associated Press

Five people accused of supporting the antifa movement pleaded guilty to terrorism-related charges on Wednesday in a Texas courtroom, following a July shooting that wounded a police officer outside a U.S. Immigration and Customs (ICE) detention center. The case marks the first of its kind since President Donald Trump signed an executive order designating antifa as a domestic terrorist threat in September. – Newsweek

Rabbi Chaim Neiditch writes: The future of Jewish identity in America will be shaped not by those who hate us, but by whether our children have the courage and confidence to stand up as Jews, unashamed and unafraid. Because the only thing more dangerous than antisemitism itself is a generation that no longer recognizes it. – Fox News

Defense

At a tiny airport in the Australian countryside last month, a small plane took off carrying a device that could transform how U.S. drones, aircraft and ships navigate across future battlefields. – Wall Street Journal

The United States shared images on Wednesday of joint military exercises in Trinidad and Tobago, as its armed forces amass in the region, building pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. – CNN 

The U.S. government said this week it has approved Ukraine’s potential purchase of equipment to upgrade its Patriot air defense launchers to the latest configuration. – Defense News

Gordon G. Chang writes: Additionally, Fisher tells me that China has been developing new families of nuclear warheads for its DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile and “even smaller tactical and cruise missiles.” It is probable, therefore, that China has been validating designs for its expanding arsenal of warheads with actual detonations of fissile materials. In any event, Trump’s message at the end of October is that the U.S. is no longer willing to ignore obvious dangers, especially if China poses them. – The Hill