Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
US imposes sanctions on senior Hamas officials Iran sharply expands stockpile of nuclear fuel ahead of Trump’s return Iran suggests pausing its high levels of uranium enrichment to avoid censure, monitor says AEI’s Michael Rubin: Choosing Mojtaba Khamenei as successor highlights the Islamic Republic’s weakness Ukraine uses U.S.-provided long-range missiles in Russia for first time U.S. envoy signals progress in Israel-Hezbollah talks as war intensifies Argentina withdraws from UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon WINEP’s Hamdi Malik, Michael Knights, and Crispin Smith: Anti-Israel attacks by Iraq-based group with implied Saudi membership Russia suspected as Baltic undersea cables cut in apparent sabotage Mexico warns about Trump tariff impact on U.S. companies Trump isn’t at the G-20 summit, but he’s dominating the debate Ukraine, Middle East conflicts eating into US air defense stocks, US admiral saysIn The News
Israel
Cease-fire talks to end the fighting in Gaza are stalled. Casualties in the enclave are mounting. And the families of hostages captured from Israel in the Hamas-led attack that ignited the war have grown increasingly desperate about the plight of their relatives in captivity. – New York Times
The U.S. on Tuesday imposed sanctions on six senior Hamas officials, the U.S. Treasury Department said, further action against the Palestinian militant group as Washington has sought to achieve a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza. – Reuters
Israeli forces killed at least 15 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, including a rescue worker, health officials said, as tanks deepened their incursion in the area and blew up homes, according to residents. – Reuters
Senior U.S. and Israeli officials will hold talks in early December in the first meeting of a new channel requested by Washington to raise concerns over civilian harm in Israel’s war in Gaza, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Fighters from Hamas and other Gaza factions have formed an armed force to prevent gangs pillaging aid convoys in the embattled territory, residents and sources close to the group said, after a big increase in the looting of scarce supplies. – Reuters
The Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war has stirred debate among the enclave’s Palestinian clerics, with some saying it was not worth the heavy civilian death toll and others declaring the Oct. 7, 2023 assault was a Muslim duty. – Reuters
The UN Security Council is expected to vote Wednesday on another draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza in its latest attempt to exert pressure to end the war. – Agence France-Presse
Israel has agreed to establish a new bilateral channel through which the US will be able to raise concerns regarding specific military incidents in which civilians have been harmed, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller announced Tuesday. – Times of Israel
Editorial: The resistance and moral example of John Paul II against Communism that helped to topple the Soviet Union was authentic humanism. But under Pope Francis that moral witness has attenuated.By his use of the word “genocide,” Pope Francis has not moved Gaza any closer to peace. All he has done is give aid and comfort to the enemies of the Jewish people and all civilized society. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: Form alliances with powerful pro-Israel political, religious and cultural organizations and personalities around the globe, especially in the Middle East, to expand the Abraham Accords and the peace treaties that already exist with Arab states, and set up a channel of communication with moderate Palestinian figures who support peace and coexistence. This mission is not impossible. Should he choose to accept it, Sa’ar will surely have the support of all Israelis. – Jerusalem Post
Danny Orbach writes: In this way, Israel would fulfill its duty as an occupying force to provide humanitarian aid to the population, and prevent Hamas from controlling Gazan society by means of aid distribution. Israel could also lay the basis for a temporary military administration. In time, this administration would be replaced by local Palestinian rule that would be subject to Israeli oversight or credible international oversight and begin the long process of de-Hamasification and de-radicalization of the population in Gaza. – Haaretz
Iran
Iran sharply increased its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade uranium amid its confrontation with Israel, according to the United Nations atomic-energy agency, in a challenge for the incoming Trump administration. – Wall Street Journal
Iran is dangling the possibility of halting its production of near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel in exchange for avoiding formal condemnation for its years of blocking some United Nations nuclear inspectors from doing their jobs, according to atomic experts and a report from the U.N.’s nuclear monitoring arm. – New York Times
The Iranian government first arrested him when he was a teenager protesting a crackdown on student activists. He remained undeterred. – New York Times
European powers — backed by the United States — are pushing ahead with a plan to censure Iran for its poor cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog at a board meeting starting Wednesday, diplomats told AFP. – Agence France-Presse
A resolution against Iran pushed for by three European powers at the UN nuclear watchdog board of governors meeting will “complicate matters”, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his French counterpart, the foreign ministry said on its Telegram channel on Wednesday. – Reuters
No charges have been brought against the Iranian woman who disrobed in an apparent protest outside her Tehran university, a spokesman for the judiciary said, adding that she had been released from the hospital to her family. – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty
Imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi underwent a complex surgery in Iran that saw part of a bone in her right leg removed over cancer fears but was immediately returned to prison, raising the risks to her life, rights groups warned. – Associated Press
Erfan Fard writes: In the Middle East, Trump’s return marks a new chapter: a rejection of appeasement and commitment to peace through strength. Trump’s intelligence team has hundreds of unfinished tasks to address, perhaps the most historic of which is dismantling the Islamic Republic’s terrorist octopus surrounding Israel and crippling the regime in Tehran. Khamenei’s survival hinges on terrorism and enmity toward Israel and the United States. If these tools are stripped from him and his cronies, there will be no trace of the Islamic Republic left. Let us hope for that day. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Rubin writes: As the regime executes athletes, dissidents, and women, Khamenei’s family may face blood vendettas from victims’ family members who feel they have nothing to lose. At the same time, Israel has shown that it can act with tremendous precision. If Khamenei and his son died together or in short succession, the vacuum of leadership might be something that no cleric could fill. – Middle East Forum Observer
Oded Adomi Leshem writes: The second option is for the conflict resolution approach to regain traction. After about two decades of unpopularity, Israelis might adopt the rationale that because the conflict cannot be managed, it must be peacefully resolved. This change will not happen on its own though. To ensure that the conflict resolution paradigm regains popularity, supporters of peace must begin to inject these ideas into the public discourse through mass media now. – Middle East Institute
Russia & Ukraine
Ukraine fired long-range missiles provided by the U.S. into Russia for the first time Tuesday, posing a test for Russian President Vladimir Putin after Moscow’s threats to retaliate for such a move. – Wall Street Journal
President Joe Biden has authorized the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine, two U.S. officials said, a step that will bolster Kyiv’s defenses against advancing Russian troops but has drawn criticism from arms control groups. – Washington Post
President Vladimir V. Putin on Tuesday lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a long-planned move whose timing appeared designed to show the Kremlin could respond aggressively to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American missiles. – New York Times
The United States Embassy in Kyiv issued an urgent warning on Wednesday morning that Russia might launch “a significant air attack,” closing the embassy and telling employees to shelter in place. – New York Times
The U.S. Department of State has approved the potential $100 million sale of military equipment and services to Ukraine, the Pentagon said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is faltering. – BBC
Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO, five sources with knowledge of Kremlin thinking told Reuters. – Reuters
A special hotline in place to deflate crises between the Kremlin and the White House is not currently being used, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, as nuclear risks rise amid the highest tensions between Russia and West in decades. – Reuters
Margus Tsahkna writes: The only path to peace is for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and remain within its borders, with Moscow’s defeat made bluntly clear. Mr. Trump has a chance to be the one who brings a just peace to Europe. I hope he takes it. – Wall Street Journal
Mikhail Zygar writes: The Soviet Union fell because it bankrupted itself under the weight of excessive military spending and imperial ambitions. Its economy proved to be unsustainable and ethnic tensions emerged, with some Soviet republics pushing for independence. Mr. Gorbachev, for his part, was a reformer within the ruling party who aimed to refine rather than overthrow the system. The differences with the United States and Mr. Trump should be obvious. – New York Times
James Stavridis writes: Everyone will hate parts of this deal. Putin will hate it, because he doesn’t get what he really wanted — the entirety of Ukraine, 40 million new citizen-vassals and the nation’s rich natural resources. Instead, he’ll get 20% of that territory, filled with unexploded ordnance, mines and burned-out infrastructure. Zelenskiy will hate such a deal, because he’s in effect trading land for peace. It isn’t right or fair, but neither are life or realpolitik. – Bloomberg
Joseph Bosco writes: If Putin refuses to follow these measures, Trump should tell him that he will remove all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons except for civilian structures and historical and cultural sites, such as the Kremlin’s iconic onion domes. He should also threaten to increase the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine until Russia stops bombing Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, and say he will work with NATO to accelerate Ukraine’s admission to the alliance. – The Hill
James S. Robbins writes: The Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine has been to manage a stalemate, to oversee an endless conflict with mounting casualties and suffering on both sides. The new ATACMS policy fits completely within that framework – it does something, but not enough. President-elect Trump has pledged to help end the conflict, and President Zelenskyy believes the conflict “will end faster with the policy of this team that will now lead the White House.” If the war cannot be settled on the battlefield, it will have to be dealt with at the negotiating table. Peace, in other words, will come not with missiles but through the art of the deal. – The National Interest
Hezbollah
A top U.S. envoy to the Middle East on Tuesday signaled progress in negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah on a cease-fire proposal that, if agreed upon, could ease hostilities in a region already on edge over Israel’s war in Gaza. – New York Times
Intensifying efforts for a truce in Lebanon have brought into focus the role of the country’s army, which would be expected to keep the south free of Hezbollah weapons but is neither willing nor able to confront the Iran-backed group, seven sources said. – Reuters
James Durso writes: Hezbollah has infiltrated banks and financial institutions, making them targets for sanctions and prosecution, harming legitimate citizens and businesses that use those banks, and weakening the governments and economies of the countries that host those institutions. The U.S. can pursue a more discriminate and data-driven approach to terror financing than Israel’s blunt instrument methods, which aim to hurt Hezbollah but are also likely motivated by a desire to weaken Lebanon’s economy to hinder the country’s reconstruction and the exploitation of its offshore natural gas resources. – The Hill
Iraq
Iraq on Monday officially banned alcohol in social clubs and hotels — among the last venues serving booze — in what might be the last step in the country’s drawn-out process of stamping out alcohol. – Washington Post
Iraq will begin its first full national census in more than three decades on Wednesday, a pivotal moment as it looks to gather demographic data for future planning and development. – Reuters
Michael Knights, Hamdi Malik, and Crispin Smith write: There is strong reason to doubt that SAD launch videos are shot exactly on the actual dates when claims are made: it is probable that the videos are made slightly earlier. In this case, extrapolating from available data, the ‘martyrdom photo’ of Mohammed Afif (the Lebanese Hezbollah spokesman killed on November 17, 2024) gives an earliest date for the video, but more likely the claim video was probably made on the afternoon of November 18, posted with a November 19 claim date on the launch video. – Washington Institute
Turkey
Australia and Turkey are in a standoff over which country is better suited to host United Nations climate change talks in 2026, with neither willing to give up on their bid. – Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Turkey refused to allow Israeli President Isaac Herzog to use its airspace to attend the COP climate summit in Azerbaijan, highlighting Ankara’s stance amid tensions with Israel. – Reuters
Turkey’s government has asked one of the country’s top export associations to help enforce a ban on trade with Israel, slowing the flow of goods in recent weeks, according to three people familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Russia had to take steps to protect itself, after being asked about Russia lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike, adding NATO should review the Russian statement carefully. – Reuters
Turkey, like any other country, should pressure Hamas to release the Gaza hostages, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters amid speculation that Ankara could become a mediator for a hostage deal. – Jerusalem Post
Ryan Gingeras writes: These internal misgivings do not yet appear to have caught the attention of Trump’s still nascent administration. Should talks break down, both Greece and Turkey may be left with a United States more distracted by affairs in Asia. Even more likely is the prospect that neither state fully trusts Washington with providing mediation on issues that separate the two capitals. – War on the Rocks
Lebanon
Scattered throughout the wrecked apartment was evidence of how particularly vulnerable children are to the effects of explosive weapons. A day and a half after Israel fired the missile through the building, the bodies of the adults had long since been retrieved and identified. Pieces of the children, though, were still being found everywhere. – Washington Post
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded on Tuesday when a rocket that was most likely fired by “non-state actors” hit their base in southern Lebanon. – Reuters
Argentina has notified the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon of its withdrawal from the force, a UNIFIL spokesperson said on Tuesday, in the first sign of cracks in the unity of the mission following attacks it has blamed on Israel. – Reuters
Italy’s defense minister said Tuesday that the Hezbollah group staged an attack on a UN peacekeeping base in Lebanon that it initially blamed on Israel. – Agence France-Presse
France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that US-led efforts for a truce between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon had created the chance for a lasting ceasefire and he called on both sides to accept a deal on the table. – Agence France-Presse
Maha Yahya writes: Washington must work with Doha, Paris, Riyadh, and other partners to scale up financial, military and institutional support to the Lebanese army to allow it to move to the south and take control of Lebanon’s borders. These states should also support reconstruction initiatives as part of its package deal with Lebanon, ensuring that their support is channeled through Lebanese state institutions. But most urgently, the world should apply pressure on Israel to end the conflict in Lebanon. – Foreign Affairs
Saudi Arabia
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates next month in a bid to shore up fresh investment from the oil-rich Gulf, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with his plans. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund — chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — has become a key vehicle for the kingdom to silence international criticism, Human Rights Watch said in a report. – Bloomberg
Lazar Berman writes: Once Trump’s policy toward Iran and US allies in the region becomes clear, MBS could change his rhetoric and his approach to Israel. “These regimes are experts with very long experience in saying one thing for domestic consumption,” said Hannah, “while being very prepared to do the exact opposite once the geopolitical circumstances are right and the risks for them have been sufficiently mitigated.” – Times of Israel
Middle East & North Africa
The political office of the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Doha has not been permanently closed, Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Zvi Bar’el writes: Achieving that goal would require Trump to seek Syria and Turkey’s cooperation in safeguarding the Syrian Kurds, a key U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS. It is possible that Trump, known for his affinity for “big deals,” might “review” U.S. policy toward Syria and propose a strategy that wouldn’t necessarily remove Iran from Syria, but could aim to prevent the transfer of weapons from Syria to Lebanon. This approach could position Assad as a “silent partner” in any future agreement related to Lebanon. – Haaretz
Hamdi Malik, Michael Knights, and Crispin Smith write: These moves reflect the Houthis’ longstanding desire to position themselves as a revolutionary vanguard among Iran’s “axis of resistance” groups, including within the Arabian Peninsula. When combined with KH and Houthi joint operations against Israel—as evidenced by the killing of a senior Houthi drone specialist at a KH site in Jurf al-Sakhar on June 30—such efforts suggest the growing encirclement of Saudi Arabia by Iranian partner forces. – Washington Institute
Korean Peninsula
In a country that fetes its military elites like celebrities, Col. Gen. Kim Yong Bok was rarely seen—or even mentioned—in public. His role leading North Korea’s special forces required him to keep a low profile to conceal his identity. But now he is a very public figure. – Wall Street Journal
Around 10,900 North Korean troops have been deployed to Kursk as part of Russia’s airborne unit and marines, with some already participating in battles in the Ukraine war, a South Korean lawmaker said on Wednesday citing the country’s spy agency. – Reuters
U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of F-15K aircraft upgrade and related equipment to South Korea for an estimated cost of $6.2 billion, the Pentagon said on Tuesday. – Reuters
North Korea recently supplied additional artillery systems to Russia to support its war efforts against Ukraine, while some of the thousands of North Korean troops deployed in Russia have begun engaging in combat, South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers Wednesday. – Associated Press
Years of high-profile intercontinental ballistic missile tests by North Korea have fallen short of demonstrating that Pyongyang can successfully launch and deliver a nuclear warhead against the US mainland, the head of American forces in the Indo-Pacific said. – Bloomberg
China
Jimmy Lai came to Hong Kong in 1961 as a boy smuggled on a fishing boat, a refugee who left mainland China because his mother was afraid he would starve to death in the turmoil following the Communist takeover there. – Wall Street Journal
As China confronts a rare series of violent attacks, authorities have been scrambling to restrict information and suppress public expression of solidarity, a sign of Beijing’s growing concerns that these incidents could threaten social stability. – Wall Street Journal
An influential bipartisan commission that advises Congress on China has called for some of the most aggressive legislative actions yet to counter the growing economic and security risks posed by Beijing. – Washington Post
For Xi Jinping, the main objective during two global summits was to push for a peaceful world with fewer trade barriers so he can focus on reviving China’s economy. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin disrupted those plans. – Bloomberg
Minxin Pei writes: If China can avoid a direct clash, it stands to benefit from a US that has fewer friends and weaker economic foundations than it might otherwise have enjoyed. Not surprisingly, Trump and his supporters argue that it is Biden who has weakened the US in the face of the Chinese threat, mainly by under-funding the Pentagon. They’d be wise to emulate what their predecessors did when they came into office: Improve and extend the current policy, rather than abandon it. – Bloomberg
South Asia
Washington should impose sanctions on a Myanmar bank being used to circumvent existing U.S. restrictions, advocates said, urging the outgoing Biden administration to cut off a key source of foreign currency for the country’s military junta. – Reuters
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday he spoke with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi about expanding scientific and business trade between both countries in areas including the energy and pharmaceutical sectors. – Reuters
Millions of people are voting in state elections in politically significant Maharashtra, India’s western industrial hub, and the mineral-rich eastern province of Jharkhand on Wednesday, a test of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist party and its regional partners. – Associated Press
Ukraine warned New Delhi that Russian firms are setting up fronts in India to skirt US sanctions, a development that could hurt India’s ties with Western partners wary of technology and weapons falling into the hands of Moscow. – Bloomberg
Hriday Sarma writes: India’s support for Palestine carries significant strategic weight as it seeks to assert itself as a leader of the Global South, championing the cause of developing nations and strengthening its image as a promoter of human rights and peace through its diplomatic outreach across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. However, whether this shift signals a more consistent foreign policy remains uncertain, as the Modi government’s actions appear more driven by electoral calculations and domestic political imperatives than by a genuine realignment of foreign policy priorities. – Jerusalem Post
Asia
United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday the U.S. alliance with the Philippines would transcend changes in administrations, as he reiterated his support for the Southeast Asian nation. – Reuters
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said he and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump discussed their countries’ alliance and their desire to strengthen that deep relationship in a phone call on Tuesday. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that “tit-for-tat” tariffs could undermine Asia’s economic prospects, raise costs and disrupt supply chains even as it expects the region to remain a key engine of growth for the global economy. – Reuters
Southeast Asian defense chiefs and representatives met in Laos on Wednesday for security talks at a time of increasing maritime disputes with China in the Asia-Pacific and as the transition to a new U.S. president looms. – Associated Press
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited a Filipino military base only miles from the South China Sea, a sign of resolve against Chinese harassment in the waterway that flared this summer. – Defense News
Catherine Thorbecke writes: Vietnam’s government has spent decades calculating how much it can tighten the screws before scaring off business; the outcome this time remains to be seen. Battles over social media regulation are currently raging across the globe. After years deploying bamboo diplomacy and straddling the tech influences of China and the West, Vietnam is worth watching closely. For now, it seems Hanoi is swaying toward Beijing. – Bloomberg
Michael J. Green writes: U.S. alliances are overwhelmingly popular, with polls conducted between 2019 and 2024 showing they enjoy about 90 percent approval in Japan and South Korea, and similarly high favorability in Australia and the Philippines. People in the region recognize that what is happening in Ukraine will happen in Asia without U.S. leadership. Given the perils of the years ahead, now is not the time for the Trump administration to shirk that responsibility – Foreign Affairs
Wilson Beaver and Robert Peters write: It is taking the initial steps to defend itself from Chinese aggression—and those same capabilities could prove capable of deterring broader, regional aggression from China. Given these developments, the United States should work with the Philippines to ensure that it can be an important and valuable member of a coalition of like-minded states that oppose China’s hegemonic ambitions. – Heritage Foundation
Europe
Russia is suspected of orchestrating another major act of sabotage in Europe after two key fiber-optic data cables running below the Baltic Sea were cut off in quick succession earlier this week, government officials said. – Wall Street Journal
Switzerland said on Tuesday it was concerned by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs and is considering how to respond if his new administration does so. – Reuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday he hoped Germany could help the EU and China to resolve the issue of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles as soon as possible, state television CCTV reported. – Reuters
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung started his weeklong trip to Europe with a stop in Brussels, a visit that illustrates Taipei’s efforts to connect with fellow democracies. – Bloomberg
German police broke up a protest camp housing environmental activists in a forest near the Tesla electric car factory in Grünheide outside Berlin on Tuesday, citing violations of public safety and order. – Associated Press
Poland is looking to join forces with France and Italy to block a trade deal between the European Union and Latin America’s Mercosur bloc that’s been a quarter of a century in the making. – Bloomberg
European delegates at the G20 summit in Brazil were unhappy with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s decision to end talks and issue the group’s final statement a day early to curtail prickly discussion on the war in Ukraine, sources said. – Reuters
Africa
Mali’s Russia-allied military government has found a new tactic to wrest more revenue from Western mining companies: detain their employees. – Wall Street Journal
The European Union pledged Tuesday to lend 91 million euros ($96 million) to Cameroon over the next three years to boost the West African country’s infrastructure and attract foreign investment. – Associated Press
Ghana is clamping down on private pension fund managers who want to invest in offshore assets on concerns it could worsen pressure on its cedi currency, three industry sources told Reuters. – Reuters
A prominent Ugandan opposition politician was kidnapped during a book launch in Kenya over the weekend, transferred to Uganda and is being held at a military jail in Kampala, his wife said on Wednesday. – Reuters
More and faster aid deliveries are needed in Sudan, the U.S. special envoy to the war-weary country told Reuters, ideally through the implementation of humanitarian corridors and pauses as discussed with government leaders in a visit on Sunday. – Reuters
South Africa will use its G20 presidency to focus on advancing inclusive economic growth, food security and artificial intelligence, President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday at a summit of the Group of 20 major economies in Brazil. – Reuters
Latin America
Brazilian authorities arrested several members of an elite Brazilian army unit on Tuesday, accusing them of planning to assassinate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, shortly before he was to become the country’s president, as part of a plot to keep the far-right incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, in power. – New York Times
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Brasilia on Wednesday caps a diplomatic blitz across South America that has shown Beijing’s growing clout in the region and at global forums where it filled a gap left by the U.S. presidential transition. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday called Venezuela’s Edmundo Gonzalez the country’s “president-elect” for the first time, signaling that Washington wants to step up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro. – Reuters
China’s President Xi Jinping met with Argentine President Javier Milei on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday, Chinese state television CCTV reported. – Reuters
North America
Mexico’s top economy officials on Tuesday downplayed concerns about trade talks with Donald Trump’s administration, saying the potential impact on American companies could give the incoming U.S. president second thoughts about levying massive tariffs. – Reuters
Canada’s point person for U.S-Canada relations said Tuesday she shares U.S. concerns about Mexico serving as a back door for China to import cheaper goods into the North American market as a review of the trade pact known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement looms. – Associated Press
More than two dozen suspected gang members were killed in Haiti’s capital on Tuesday after residents joined police to fight off an attempted overnight attack on an affluent hillside suburb of Port-au-Prince, police said. – Reuters
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said on Tuesday that it is stopping operations across the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince and its wider metropolitan area due to an escalation in violence and threats to its staff from members of the Haitian police. – Reuters
United States
When Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva called for “more multilateralism“ at the opening of the Group of 20 nations summit on Monday, the remark appeared aimed at someone who wasn’t in the room: Donald Trump. – Wall Street Journal
Texas is offering 1,402 acres (567 hectares) of land along the border with Mexico to the incoming Trump administration to lease as part of a plan for the mass deportation of immigrants, the Texas General Land Office said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Editorial: Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that he is only seeking mutually beneficial respect and compromise with America, Trump would do well to remember that Russia remains the second foremost U.S. adversary. That doesn’t mean that dialogue with Russia is a mistake. But it does mean that Trump must proceed with eyes open as to what Putin actually wants from America, not simply what he says he wants. […] Commensurate with cooperation on U.S. law enforcement, security and diplomatic concerns, Nigeria and other African nations deserve Trump’s push for greater U.S. private investment. China’s effort to woo African nations also deserves America’s attention. – Washington Examiner
Eli Lake writes: All of this poses a challenge to Senate Republicans. They have to strike a balance between supporting the leader of their party on the eve of his second administration, while preserving the constitutional authority of the Senate itself. Trump has already made clear that he wants Gaetz and will not budge. Very few senators want to be the first to tell him he has to reconsider.- The Free Press
Madelyn Creedon and Franklin Miller write: Given that the current guidance—with the recent Biden changes—is fully up to date and more than adequate to guide the command’s planning, there is no need for the Trump administration to conduct a massive review. A quick senior-level review within the administration should suffice. This not only will preserve a well-functioning policy but also will avoid a waste of senior-level focus and get the much-needed updated plans in place sooner. – Foreign Affairs
Cybersecurity
Australia said it was concerned that one in ten cybersecurity incidents last year involved critical infrastructure, with state-sponsored actors targeting the country’s government, infrastructure and businesses using evolving tradecraft. – Reuters
The recent statement from National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on supply chain security brings into sharp focus the escalating threats faced by critical infrastructure operators, particularly the energy sector. For the United States, securing this sector is not just a matter of national interest; it’s a strategic necessity that reverberates across global markets. – Cyberscoop
House Republicans and representatives from the rail and pipeline industries criticized what they say are overly onerous security regulations during a Tuesday hearing that could be a preview of how cyber rules are handled in the Trump administration. – Cyberscoop
Vincent Carchidi and Mohammed Soliman write: The goal throughout is to more clearly connect American resources with the multifaceted needs of AI supremacy. These recommendations directly serve specific goals, including maintaining a lead in basic AI research and faster deployment of AI products. Policymakers should take immediate steps to build on the US’ existing relative advantages in the AI competition with China while also collaborating with potential trendsetters in the Middle East. – Middle East Institute
Defense
A secretive U.S. Army helicopter unit sent to the Mediterranean last year in response to Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel was conducting nighttime target practice when one of its crews crashed into the sea after a diving attack, killing all five on board, according to a mishap report obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post
Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are eating into U.S. stockpiles of air defenses, the top U.S. admiral overseeing American forces in the Asia-Pacific region said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Leading Navy admirals and officials now see additive manufacturing as a potential savior of the overstretched submarine force and its “exceptionally fragile” industrial base. But they need industry to get on board, ASAP. – Breaking Defense
President-elect Donald Trump’s stated plans to tee up the firings of thousands of federal employees has shaken many in the career workforce and is damaging productivity, the Pentagon’s chief accountant warned today. – Breaking Defense
Long War
Israeli forces shot dead three members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group on Tuesday during an army raid into Qabatiya in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry and the group said. – Reuters
Pakistan’s Prime Minister on Tuesday approved a long-awaited “comprehensive military operation” against separatist groups in the restive southwest, more than a week after an outlawed group killed 26 people in a suicide bombing at a train station, officials said. – Associated Press
Zachary Faria writes: Biden’s lasting foreign policy legacy will be that he left terrorist organizations stronger than they were when he took office. Between his weakness and incompetence, Biden has wasted billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars on aid or equipment that end up in the hands of terrorists while demonstrating that he didn’t have the spine to oppose them in any real way. Biden’s presidency was better for terrorists than perhaps any other group of people in the world, and they will miss him when he leaves office in January. – Washington Examiner