Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel is shifting the focus of its military campaign to southern Gaza, where it will likely face the hardest stage of the six-week-old war as it seeks to crush Hamas and recover hostages amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. – Wall Street Journal

Israel and Hamas are closing in on an internationally brokered deal to pause fighting and free some of the roughly 240 hostages taken by the militant group, officials close to the talks said, amid heightened scrutiny of the civilian toll of Israel’s invasion of Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

As Western and Arab leaders look beyond Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip, most agree they want some form of Palestinian government running the enclave, but they can’t agree on who it should include. – Wall Street Journal

Hundreds of patients, medical staff and displaced people began evacuating the besieged Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on Saturday, as the Israeli military tightens its control of the medical complex, which it says Hamas has used as a military command center. – Wall Street Journal

Israel said it would allow limited fuel deliveries into the Gaza Strip after supplies ran out and plunged the enclave into a communications blackout. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s fierce response to last month’s cross-border assault by Hamas militants from Gaza has reinvigorated support for Palestinians in the Arab world and stirred popular anger—not just at Israel and its biggest ally, the U.S., but also at Arab governments. – Wall Street Journal

For 17 years, on and off, two men maintained a secret line of communication between Israel and Hamas, the armed Palestinian group that opposes Israel’s existence. – New York Times

Israel stepped up accusations of Hamas abuses at the Gaza Strip’s biggest hospital on Sunday, saying a captive soldier had been executed and two foreign hostages held at a site that has been a focus of its devastating six-week-old offensive. – Reuters

Prime Minister Netanyahu laid out for the first time Israel’s pre-conditions for the post-war administration of Gaza — starting with the insistence that any new administration in Gaza acknowledge the truth about what happened on October 7 and the days after. – New York Sun

After weeks of being accused of exaggerating claims about Hamas terrorists’ use of hospitals at Gaza for military purposes, the Israel Defense Forces on Sunday released videos of what it said was evidence of an extensive network of fortified tunnels beneath the strip’s largest hospital, the Shifa hospital, used by Hamas to hide hostages and escape Israeli airstrikes. – New York Sun

The deal to release hostages kidnapped by Hamas during its terrorist attack on Israel now only depends on “minor” practical issues, the Qatari prime minister said on Sunday in Doha. – Politico

The Palestinian Authority’s Finance Ministry put out a statement on Sunday, denying terror group Hamas was responsible for at least 350 partygoers slain at the Re’im music festival massacre. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Israel has proven during the first six weeks of the war that it is intent on ending Hamas’s tyrannical rule over Gaza and its threat to the Israeli people. While that should continue to be the overriding objective, it needs to go hand in hand with the sacred charge of obtaining the release of any hostage being held in Gaza whenever the opportunity arises. – Jerusalem Post

David Ignatius writes: “We need to stop killing each other,” Waldman tells me. “It’s going to take time.” I ask him what countries his Arab contacts are from, but he won’t answer. This isn’t the time to talk openly about peace with the Palestinians, he says. But he still believes it’s coming. – Washington Post

Ruth Pollard writes: Yet, in the meantime, Israel’s government can at least not make its own problems worse. The unconscionable death toll in Gaza, Netanyahu’s disregard for the fate of the more than 200 hostages held by Hamas, and Israel’s continued rejection of a ceasefire have already gravely damaged its cause. The last thing it needs is to embolden a settler minority whose actions are undermining security for all Israelis and Palestinians and increasing the risk of a wider conflict. – Bloomberg

Navvar Şaban writes: Israel justified those actions as a response to several mortar attacks from the Syrian side. However, the nature of those strikes differed from Israel’s previous responses, appearing more as a demonstration of Israeli military prowess. Such a robust response to a few mortar shells suggests that Israel’s intent was to showcase its capability to operate on multiple fronts, rather than merely a retaliation for the damage caused by the mortars. – Middle East Institute

Conn Carroll writes: But with narrow control of just one chamber, Republicans can’t force Biden and the Democrats to do something that is just so against their nature. Instead, Republicans should take an easy win: Pair Ukraine aid with Israel, and watch the Democratic Party tear itself apart. – Washington Examiner

Russia & Ukraine

He was sentenced in July 2022 to 17 years after a high-profile trial that reignited a national conversation in Russia about the lack of protections against domestic violence and law enforcement indifference to such cases. But then Pekhteleva’s bereaved mother, Oksana, received a photo of Kanyus — not in prison but in a military uniform surrounded by other Russian soldiers. – Washington Post

The drones began crashing on Ukraine’s front lines, with little explanation. For months, the aerial vehicles supplied by Quantum Systems, a German technology firm, had worked smoothly for Ukraine’s military, swooping through the air to spot enemy tanks and troops in the country’s war against Russia. – New York Times

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday demanded rapid changes in the operations of Ukraine’s military and announced the dismissal of the commander of the military’s medical forces. – Reuters

A Ukrainian teenager who was taken to Russia from the occupied city of Mariupol during the war and prevented from leaving the country earlier this year returned to Ukraine on Sunday. – Reuters

A Ukrainian soldier and a woman died when a grenade exploded in a Kyiv apartment, police in the Ukrainian capital said, but the cause of the blast, which injured a second man, was not immediately clear. – Reuters

Russia launched several waves of drone attacks on Kyiv early on Sunday for the second night in row, stepping up its assaults on the Ukrainian capital after several weeks of pause, the city’s military administration said. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has sanctioned 37 Russian groups and 108 people including a former prime minister and a former education minister and said he aimed to fight wartime abductions of children from Ukraine and other “Russian terror”. – Reuters

The lower house of Russia’s parliament, the State Duma, approved a federal budget Friday that increases spending by around 25% in 2024 and devotes a record amount to defense. – Associated Press

Cyprus, the sunny Mediterranean island where ancient sources say Aphrodite freely frolicked, has just been adjudged to play “an even bigger role than was commonly known in moving dirty money for Russian President Vladimir Putin” and other dictators. – New York Sun

The Ukrainian government has collected evidence of around 109,000 alleged Russian war crimes, including physical and cyberattacks, according to Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin. – Politico

Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan write: If the winner is committed to the continuation of transatlantic solidarity and further efforts to ensure Ukraine’s security and sovereignty, Putin would have little reason to presume that time is on Russia’s side. But the U.S. election is a year away, and it could lead to an outcome that leaves Ukraine in the lurch. Neither Washington nor Kyiv should run that risk. The United States needs to work with Ukraine now to pivot to a new strategy that reflects military and political realities. To do otherwise is to recklessly gamble on Ukraine’s future. – Foreign Affairs

Otto Lanzavecchia and Gabriele Carrer write: Far from being unconnected, illicit cash handovers, “prank calls,” and cyberattacks are part of the same medium-to-long-term design: to exacerbate political division, embitter the public debate, fuel information chaos, and sow distrust towards democratic institutions, while also interfering with the democratic process by injecting Kremlin-aligned narratives and conducting espionage. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Lebanon

The secondary conflict that erupted along the Lebanon-Israel border in tandem with the Gaza war has settled into something of a routine. Every day for the past six weeks, Israel has attacked Lebanon and Hezbollah has attacked Israel, a pattern that began as a tit for tat and has now blurred into a steady exchange of fire. – Washington Post

Hezbollah and Israel traded rocket and missile fire in areas near the Lebanese-Israeli border on Saturday, officials on both sides said, in the latest flare-up of violence which the United States worries will cause conflict to spiral in the Middle East. – Reuters

Adnan Nasser writes: Hezbollah is finding itself trapped within its own ideological rhetoric and the current reality. By not displaying the totality of its strength, it risks losing its image as a resistance movement for the “liberation” of historic Palestine. On the other hand, Hezbollah has calculated that such a decision would not serve the group’s long-term political agenda in Lebanon. However, it has not ruled out such an outcome. Everything is contingent on the fighting in Gaza. If a ceasefire is implemented soon, Palestinians, Lebanese, and Israelis can breathe easier. The ball is in the court of the international community. – National Interest

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol heads to Britain on Monday for a state visit, hoping to boost economic ties and enhance security partnerships to counter North Korea’s evolving threats and other regional challenges. – Reuters

North Korea on Monday denounced the United States’ potential sale of missiles to Japan and South Korea, calling it a dangerous act that raises tension in the region and brings a new arms race, state media reported. – Reuters

South Korea’s military warned North Korea not to go ahead with its planned spy satellite launch, suggesting Monday that Seoul could suspend an inter-Korean peace deal and resume frontline aerial surveillance in retaliation for a launch. – Associated Press

Tim Culpan writes: And while ties between Seoul and Tokyo aren’t always warm, increasing concerns about the common threat they face from Beijing means that arms trade between the two is not unthinkable, especially as Japan undergoes its greatest expansion in military power since the end of World War II. The US now supplies 97% of Japan’s arms. Bold plans to become a big name in the global weapons market necessitates Seoul landing big orders from major clients. If it does, it will go some way to achieving another objective: helping to reduce the leverage of external powers in Asia. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Maldives new President Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned on altering the tiny Indian Ocean archipelago’s “India first” policy, has requested India withdraw its military from the country. – Reuters

India and Australia are set to hold talks focused on bolstering their strategic, defense and security ties on Monday in New Delhi. – Reuters

Online abuse and hate speech targeting politically active women in Afghanistan has significantly increased since the Taliban took over the country in Aug. 2021, according to a report released Monday by a U.K.-based rights group. – Associated Press

Pakistan security forces killed four militants in a shootout during an overnight raid in the country’s northwest near the border with Afghanistan, the military said Sunday. – Associated Press

Bangladesh’s highest court on Sunday dismissed an appeal by the country’s largest Islamist party seeking to overturn a 2013 ruling that barred it from participating in elections for violating the constitutional provision of secularism. – Associated Press

A roadside bomb exploded in Pakistan’s southwestern Baluchistan province, killing three people, police said. – Associated Press

China and Pakistan on Friday wrapped up their largest bilateral naval exercise to date, marking the first time Pakistan hosted such an advanced Chinese destroyer for training. – Defense News

Jianli Yang writes: Although India is a democracy, it is a flawed one with considerable room for improvement. Nevertheless, the foundation of India’s political system is democratic and based on the rule of law, which is fundamentally different from China’s authoritarian system. In fact, since the Tiananmen Square Massacre of 1989, the CCP regime has often used India as a negative example to dampen the Chinese people’s desire for democracy. The outcome of this rivalry of the world’s two most populous countries will shape the future of the international liberal order. – The Hill

Kabir Taneja writes: Whether its own leaders like it or not, India has bought into aspects of future security architectures with its membership of the I2U2 and IMEEC in one of the world’s most flammable regions. This is a bold and commendable posture for an economy that will require significant global input for its challenging future economic goals. It is also palatable for the Middle East to have India as a major energy market to diversify its exports and offset Chinese influence over critical commodities such as oil and gas. – Foreign Policy

Europe

Faced with growing American reluctance to send more military aid to Ukraine, European leaders are moving to fill the gap, vowing new support for Kyiv as it battles Russia in a war in Europe’s backyard. – New York Times

Hungary must say no to the current Europe model built in Brussels, Prime Minister Viktor Orban told a congress of his Fidesz party on Saturday, adding that the European Union needs to be changed rather than ditched. – Reuters

France has successfully test-fired an M51.3 long-range ballistic missile, boosting the credibility of France’s nuclear deterrence capabilities, the defence ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Finland’s representative on the European Commission, Jutta Urpilainen, plans to enter the race to become president of the Nordic country. – Bloomberg

Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins is looking to join the list of contenders to succeed NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, a second top politician from the Baltics to express interest. – Bloomberg

Latin America

Javier Milei, a libertarian political outsider who pledged to flatten Argentina’s political establishment, won the presidency Sunday by an overwhelming margin in a major shift for a country buffeted by one of the world’s highest rates of inflation and mounting poverty after years of populist rule. – Wall Street Journal

International rebuke swelled on Saturday over what observers say are efforts to use a politicized justice system to keep Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo out of office. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department called Nicaragua’s formal withdrawal from the Organization of American States on Sunday “another step away from democracy.” – Associated Press

A Brazilian defense organization has introduced an exploding drone prototype dubbed Anshar. Its unveiling comes as the weapons class gains prominence amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. Also known as loitering munitions, they typically are able to remain in flight until a remote user issues the order to crash into a target.  – Defense News

John Authers writes: But he’s received an endorsement from the Argentine people, who at this point know what they’re getting into. Massa would have represented more of the same policies that have been an abject failure. Rather than act like First World War generals and do the same thing again and again in the hope that it will work next time, they’re taking a big risk and more or less guaranteeing themselves even more pain in the short term, to see if they can turn it around. They deserve a break. – Bloomberg

Lautaro Grinspan writes: The idea of moving out of his parents’ home and renting an apartment of his own one day feels inconceivable. Piaggio doesn’t see a future for himself in Argentina if Massa’s ruling party wins the Nov. 19 runoff. He said he is proud of young people like himself and his friends for elevating Milei as an alternative. “We are the generation that created a change.” – Foreign Policy

United States

President Biden is struggling to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take steps U.S. officials believe could help prevent the conflict in Gaza from further escalating, straining the relationship between the two longtime allies, according to U.S. and European officials. – Wall Street Journal 

A surge in attacks on deployed U.S. forces has roiled some within the Defense Department, where officials, frustrated by what they consider an incoherent strategy for countering the Iranian proxies believed responsible, acknowledge the limited retaliatory airstrikes approved by President Biden have failed to stop the violence. – Washington Post

Andy Kessler writes: Has the U.S. lost its will? “We can have the weaponry and ships and aircraft, but if our adversaries don’t think we’re willing to use them, to defend ourselves and stop them, they don’t do much good.” In the Middle East, if “Joe Biden is not going to respond, and if he’s going to be shooting empty warehouses in eastern Syria, as opposed to blowing up IRGC barracks outside of Tehran—if I’m Xi Jinping sitting in Beijing, and I see that, it makes me think.” – Wall Street Journal

Joe Biden writes: But we must never forget the lesson learned time and again throughout our history: Out of great tragedy and upheaval, enormous progress can come. More hope. More freedom. Less rage. Less grievance. Less war. We must not lose our resolve to pursue those goals, because now is when clear vision, big ideas and political courage are needed most. That is the strategy that my administration will continue to lead — in the Middle East, Europe and around the globe. Every step we take toward that future is progress that makes the world safer and the United States of America more secure. – Washington Post

Niall Ferguson writes: What makes a superpower summit at once sinister and comical is this uncanny sense that the two superpowers are not quite the polar opposites they purport to be. Remember: if the Cuban Missile Crisis repeats itself over Taiwan the side imposing the blockade will not be, as in 1962, the US. It will be China. In the Taiwan Semiconductor Crisis of 2024, we would be the Soviets. – Bloomberg

Defense

A group of Republican lawmakers warned that two F-16 fighter jet programs for Taiwan remain at “high risk” of falling further behind despite efforts to accelerate deliveries to bolster the island’s defenses against China. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Diplomacy halted a nuclear arms race in the 1980s, largely because two political leaders, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, had the vision to do so. Right now, such willpower is in short supply. But it would be wise to look for modest opportunities to prepare for treaties later on. An unbridled arms race will be costly, risky and even more mind-bending than three-way negotiations to stop it. – Washington Post

John Venable writes: With China’s growing stealth capability and capacity, and its willingness to invest heavily in readiness, we can no longer afford to buy anything but the best. There is no doubt that the F-35 is the most dominant fighter in the world. Our nation needs to acquire as many of these jets as quickly as it can. – Heritage Foundation

Peter Suciu writes: In the end, Project 705 Lira or Alfa-class was simply too expensive to mass-produce. In fact, after the lead boat, K-64, suffered a major reactor problem in 1972 – just a year after she entered service – the submarine was towed back to Severodvinsk where it was deemed too expensive to repair. Instead, K-64 was split in half and used to train Soviet submariners. The remaining six boats continued in service – until April 1990 when five were decommissioned and scrapped. The final boat was eventually decommissioned in July 1996 and also scrapped. – National Interest

Maya Carlin writes: The WS-10A Taihang turbofan engines that power the J-11B variant have not performed well. These engines lack adequate thrust and also require large amounts of overhauls and maintenance, negatively impacting the platform. In fact, these homegrown Chinese engines have functioned so poorly that the J-11 fleet had to be grounded and refitted with Russia’s AL-31Fs. Although Beijing strives to be the leader of the aeronautics industry, it clearly still does rely to some degree on foreign nations. – National Interest