Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Pope Francis has said that Israel’s attacks in Gaza should be investigated to determine if they meet the legal definition of genocide, according to excerpts from a forthcoming book based on interviews with the pontiff. – Washington Post

An Israeli judge on Sunday revealed more details in a case involving an official in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office and a military officer suspected of leaking and mishandling classified intelligence documents — an accusation that has been roiling the country in the midst of war. – New York Times

Israeli airstrikes pummeled two areas in central Gaza and a town in the north of the enclave on Sunday morning, killing more than 30 people and wounding several others, according to local rescue and emergency services. – New York Times

The Israeli military dropped a 2,000-pound bomb equipped with a U.S.-made guidance kit on an 11-story building in Beirut early Friday, striking near the heart of the Lebanese capital as officials there mulled the new draft of a U.S.-backed cease-fire proposal. – New York Times

The Israeli military issued call-up notices to more members of the ultra-Orthodox community on Sunday to bolster its forces as it fights on its southern and northern borders, a move that may further inflame tensions between religious and secular Israelis. – Reuters

Israeli airstrikes on the village of Khreibeh in the Baalbek District of eastern Lebanon killed six people on Saturday, including three children, and injured 11 others, the Lebanese health ministry said. – Reuters

Two flash bombs were fired towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in the northern Israeli town of Caesarea on Saturday and fell into the garden, police said. – Reuters

Aid access in Gaza is at a low point with deliveries to parts of the besieged north of the enclave all but impossible, a U.N. humanitarian official said on Friday. – Reuters

The European Union’s top diplomat on Monday confirmed he would suggest to members of the bloc that the EU pauses its political dialogue with Israel, citing the country’s conduct of the war in Gaza. – Reuters

While international bodies condemned Israel’s decision to ban UNRWA, despite the discovery that some UNRWA staff had participated in the Oct.7 massacre and others were in the employ of Hamas, Israeli mother Ayelet Samerano told the Telegraph on Sunday that she was pleased with the news. – Jerusalem Post

Turkey can’t become a mediator for a Gaza hostage deal, Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post after KAN News reported that a number of Hamas leaders had left Qatar for Turkey. “I don’t know of any Turkish involvement, and I don’t think there could be,” one source told the Post. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s government approved a measure on Sunday to end the service of seven ministerial legal advisers within 90 days, despite the attorney-general’s office deeming the measure “not legally viable” and based on “foreign interests,” including removing restrictions on government power. – Jerusalem Post

Rotem Sella writes: Relations between the U.S. and Israel need an update. The first step is to stop regular U.S. military aid to Israel. American taxpayers shouldn’t subsidize a prosperous country or send help outside of emergencies. That money should go to U.S.-Israeli co-investment in military technology. The two countries can split the bill on mutually beneficial projects. This is similar to how the Iron Dome was developed, and its technology has benefited both countries. – Wall Street Journal

Martin Oliner writes: It would be consistent with what Biden’s administration has done successfully in coordinating an international effort to stymie attacks on Israel on April 15 and October 1 and his repeated promises that he would not let Iran become a nuclear power. And it would prevent Iranian retaliation against Israel and America that the Islamic regime threatened to carry out immediately after the election, which could further erode Biden’s legacy of projecting weakness. There is still time to accomplish all these lofty goals in coordination with Israel, which can provide all the intelligence necessary to ensure the operation’s success. The key would be for Biden to work closely together with the man he has called his friend for decades, Netanyahu, rather than working against him like Obama made the mistake of doing. – Jerusalem Post

Aviram Bellaishe writes: Taking this Iranian outlook into account, Israel should pursue two main objectives: first, joint diplomatic activity with the new-old administration to enable strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, rolling back the dangerous arms race by years, followed by a nuclear agreement and supervision, once the regional threat has been neutralized. And second, Israel should seek US mediation for an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement as part of the Abraham Accords that would foster regional peace and quiet – and which the new administration seeks as a legacy achievement for Trump. – Jerusalem Post

John Spencer writes: Hamas has been subjugating the Palestinian people in Gaza since it seized power in 2007. It started attacking Israel in 2008, and it is now the single greatest obstacle to a Palestinian government that would seek coexistence with Israel. In October 2023, Hamas started a war, and it is losing that war. The only way to break the cycle of violence and radicalization in Gaza is for Israel to continue, through legal and methodical means, to remove Hamas from military and political power. – Foreign Affairs

Russia & Ukraine

President Biden has for the first time authorized Ukrainian forces to use Western-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, allowing Kyiv to better defend itself against Russia, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal

President-elect Donald Trump’s push for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is finding growing acceptance in Europe as one of the biggest aerial bombardments of the war added to growing concern about Ukraine’s ability to withstand mounting Russian attacks. – Wall Street Journal

Strikes like this represent a big advance in Ukraine’s attempts to use computers to help it combat Russia’s huge army. The drone that carried it out was controlled in the final attack phase by a small onboard computer designed by the U.S.-based company Auterion. Several other companies, many of them Ukrainian, have successfully tested similar autopilot systems on the battlefield. – Wall Street Journal

Russia battered Ukraine with more than 200 missiles and drones early Sunday — its largest combined attack in months — sending residents scrambling from their beds to bomb shelters, damaging energy infrastructure and killing at least two people just ahead of the 1,000-day mark since its full-scale invasion of the country. – Washington Post

The fight to control some 200 square miles of land in western Russia became even more brutal in recent days as the Kremlin, ahead of possible negotiations with the incoming Trump administration to end the war, appears set on removing Russian territory from the equation. – Washington Post

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia spoke by phone for an hour on Friday, the first discussion between Mr. Putin and a sitting leader of a large Western country since late 2022. – New York Times

Editorial: The Trump camp leaked that, in a recent phone call, the former and future President had asked Vladimir Putin not to escalate in Ukraine. Mr. Putin’s blunt reply to that request is the North Korean troop deployment and the weekend missile barrage. The attempt to destroy Ukraine’s energy supply is especially cruel as winter nears. The Kremlin dictator also wants Ukrainian troops out of Russia to strengthen his position and not have to trade his control of portions of eastern Ukraine. Mr. Putin is telling Mr. Trump that his settlement terms will be harsh. Mr. Trump will have to calculate his policy accordingly. – Wall Street Journal

Adrian Karatnycky writes: Any settlement that leaves 20% of Ukraine’s territory in Russia’s hands will be hard for Ukrainians to accept. But most war-ravaged Ukrainians are likely to accept one that enhances their country’s sovereignty through bilateral security guarantees and deters future Russian aggression with resources that let Ukraine strengthen its military capabilities and rebuild its cities. – Wall Street Journal

Megan K. Stack writes: It is this uneasy dynamic — a Ukraine close to the West, striving for inclusion in the West, but not truly part of it — that has defined the U.S. management of this disastrous war. We want Ukraine to function as a protectorate, but ultimately, we are unwilling to protect it. A sensible, ugly strategy — tactically defensible but morally reprehensible. America is not going to save Ukraine. Maybe we need Mr. Trump — brazen and unscrupulous — to finally say so out loud and act accordingly. – New York Times

Michael Rubin writes: Just as Hamas seeks Israel’s elimination and late Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah promised to eradicate the entire Jewish people wherever they might live, so too does Putin deny any legitimacy to Ukraine’s existence. His pre-war speeches and articles argue that Ukrainians simply cannot exist as a separate entity from Russia. It is time to put land-for-peace to rest and realize that real peace only comes when military defeats force aggressors to surrender unconditionally. – Washington Examiner

Mark Temnycky writes: Now, as Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground against the invading Russian and North Korean forces, they will be on high alert as they monitor the situation in Belarus. Ukraine understands the complexities Belarus would bring to the war but is prepared to accept the challenge. North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war has done little to alter the battlefield. Russia will continue to turn to Belarus for additional assistance, and at the same time, Ukraine will continue to operate carefully to defend its homeland against the ongoing invasion. Regardless of what is to come, Ukraine will be ready. – The Hill

Raffaele Marchetti writes: In the long term, however, the situation can change. Donald Trump declared his intention to put  an end to the war. As a consequence, a significant effort to gain additional last-minute miles on the ground can be expected in the next few weeks from Russia, with the help of North Korea, to sit at the negotiation table in a strong position with a de facto control over a larger portion of the territory. These next few weeks of transition, while Trump awaits his seat in the White House, will be crucial in determining the exact delineation of the future Ukrainian-Russian border. – The National Interest

Syria

Israel carried out attacks on the Mazzeh suburb of Damascus on Friday, Syrian state news agency SANA said, a day after a wave of deadly strikes on what Israel said were militant targets in the Syrian capital. – Reuters

Syria’s illegal drug trade, a critical economic pillar for President Bashar Assad’s regime, is under threat as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah disrupts the production and smuggling of Captagon, an illicit stimulant wildly popular across the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s attacks in Syria have become more frequent in recent days; on Friday, for the second day in a row, Israel attacked the Mezzeh suburb of Damascus, according to the Syrian news agency SANA. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

The fear of similar airstrikes is again driving a wedge of suspicion through Lebanese society, which has long suffered from sectarian strife. Civilians forced from their homes near the southern border with Israel or Hezbollah members escaping Israeli attacks are both seeking safety farther north. – Wall Street Journal

Italy on Friday said an unexploded artillery shell hit the base of the Italian contingent in the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon and Israel promised to investigate. – Reuters

Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said on Friday the Lebanese government prioritises the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 in its entirety without any amendments. – Reuters

The recent military actions carried out by the IDF in Lebanon have created a complex and challenging reality in the country, impacting its society, politics, and security. At the center of this situation is the Shiite community, Hezbollah’s main base of support, which now finds itself under pressure from both internal and external sources. – Jerusalem Post

An Iranian delegation was refused access to Lebanon after officials accompanying Khamenei advisor Ali Larijani refused to be searched by the airport’s security team, Lebanese media site LBCI reported on Friday. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army vehicle killed three soldiers in northern Iraq on Sunday, police and hospital sources said. The attack near the town of Tuz Khurmatu, about 175 km (110 miles) north of the capital Baghdad, critically wounded two others, they said. – Reuters

A ship passing through the Red Sea 25 nautical miles west of Al-Mukha, Yemen, reported on Sunday that a missile had splashed into the sea nearby, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said. – Reuters

Yemen’s Houthi forces attacked “a vital target” in Israel’s Red Sea port city of Eilat with a number of drones, the Iran-aligned group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said on Saturday. – Reuters

China

Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Saturday told President Biden that Beijing remains committed to stable relations with the U.S., an expression of hope for continuity in ties before Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office in the midst of promises to squeeze Beijing over trade. – Wall Street Journal

The president-elect pressed Taiwan during his election campaign to spend significantly more to defend against the growing threat of attack by China. He accused Taiwan’s chip makers—a lifeblood industry accounting for 15% of gross domestic product—of stealing American jobs. He brought into his inner circle the billionaire Elon Musk, who has mocked Taiwan’s determination to maintain its autonomy. – Wall Street Journal

As China faced off with its Pacific neighbors this year, two ships provided an intimidating presence: The world’s longest coast guard patrol ships. One hundred and twenty-three feet longer than their American equivalents, they have become floating symbols and enforcers of Beijing’s territorial ambitions. – Wall Street Journal

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te called on Monday for the signing of an economic partnership agreement with the European Union, saying it would boost cooperation in semiconductors and that as democracies the two sides should be working together. – Reuters

China’s President Xi Jinping told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden that the issues of Taiwan, democracy, human rights and rights to development are “red lines” for China and not to be challenged, the official state media Xinhua said on Sunday. – Reuters

Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung is leading a delegation of company executives to Lithuania, a visit very likely to draw a rebuke from China. Representatives from 20 drone companies are joining the minister’s visit, which will last until Nov. 24, according to a foreign ministry statement on Sunday. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Finally, Trump should make clear to allies that China is the defining security concern for the U.S. The United Kingdom should know that it cannot expect a new trade deal or retain any kind of special relationship if it wants to play economic footsie with Beijing. The same goes for Australia (sadly, New Zealand is likely a lost cause that should be removed from the Five Eyes alliance). Trump should finally wake up to the fact that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a puppet of the enemy, not a partner of the alliance. Germany should kiss goodbye to U.S. military bases unless it increases defense spending and judges Chinese threats more skeptically. However, allies that stand with the U.S. on China should receive preferential trade deals and greater U.S. diplomatic support for their concerns. – Washington Examiner

Daniel Moss writes: Also to be remembered: Governments have little sway over markets today compared with four decades ago. Better to aim for something modest and, of course, transactional. That’s preferrable to a protracted, intensified trade conflict. Meantime, Beijing could do worse than encourage — or nudge — the yuan down. Ultimately, Rubin concluded in his memoir, underlying economics drive currencies more than state meddling. The stars are aligning for some kind of yuan retreat. It may even be in China’s interest. – Bloomberg

Asia

Chinese forces in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway claimed in part by the Philippines and six other governments, have become increasingly assertive, not only posing a threat to Philippine security but also challenging a Western-led effort to contain China’s power in the wider region, according to Philippine leaders and Western security analysts. – Washington Post

New Zealand signed a trade deal on Saturday with Switzerland, Costa Rica and Iceland to remove tariffs on hundreds of sustainable goods and services, in a move Wellington says will boost the country’s export sector. – Reuters

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet China’s President Xi Jinping in Brazil on Monday, as Beijing seeks to promote Australia as a model for trading with China in a Trump era, even as Canberra draws closer defence ties with Washington. – Reuters

The Philippines and the United States signed on Monday a military intelligence-sharing deal in a further deepening of defence ties between the two nations facing common security challenges in the region. – Reuters

Japanese troops will begin regular deployments in northern Australia as part of military cooperation with Australia and the U.S., Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles said on Sunday. – Reuters

David Boling writes: So, Abe had a strong domestic political incentive to work with Trump, probably unlike the domestic politics of many European leaders, whose constituencies distrust Trump. It’s certainly not that the Japanese public adores Trump. But they are more pragmatic than some of their foreign counterparts. Abe’s recipe for success was a willingness to flatter Trump, focus on his own strategic goals and meet the expectations of his citizens. In 2022, of course, Abe was tragically killed by an assassin. But the legacy of Abe — the Wise Man from Japan — lives on. – The Hill

Africa

Expectations were growing that President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s party would win Senegal’s Sunday legislative elections after two opposition leaders conceded while votes were still being counted. – Reuters

Britain will seek backing from other United Nations Security Council members on Monday for its demand that Sudan’s warring parties stop hostilities and allow deliveries of aid, the British foreign ministry said. – Reuters

Nigeria and India on Sunday agreed to deepen collaboration in maritime security, intelligence and counter-terrorism during a state visit to the West African country by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. – Reuters

A group of four Russian and Belarusian nationals, detained in the central African state of Chad for more than a month, flew back to Moscow on Saturday, Russian media reported. – Reuters

Gabonese voters approved a new constitution by a landslide 91.8%, the interior minister said on Sunday, after a referendum that the junta in power promised would be a steppingstone to democratic rule. – Reuters

Lilly Harvey writes: Such a partnership needs to start with an understanding that Africa is not simply a battlefield but an increasingly important actor in international relations. This requires moving beyond the tired narrative that Africa might matter “someday” to an understanding that African countries are, in fact, present-day partners whose needs and aspirations the United States should take into account. Doing so requires prioritizing the promotion of inclusive economic policies that empower local businesses and championing fair trade practices that enable African nations to compete on a global scale. – The National Interest

North America

But the capture of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada has ignited an all-out battle for control of the Sinaloa cartel, one of the world’s most famous drug gangs. Homicides have exploded in Sinaloa state, with around 400 people killed in the last two months, quadruple the number during the same period last year. – Washington Post 

Mexico expects its budget deficit next year to come down to 3.9% of GDP as growth increases, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O said on Friday, as the government plans hefty spending cuts including to defense and security. – Reuters

The United States has stepped up its campaign to transform the Kenya-led multinational force in Haiti into a U.N. peacekeeping force, spurred by escalating gang violence that shut all air traffic to the capital of Port-au-Prince this week. – Associated Press

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave support to the decision by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to speak directly with Vladimir Putin on Friday, saying that ending the war will require some engagement with Russia’s president. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The agony of the Cuban people is real, but sending money or oil to their rulers won’t ease their pain. It will merely keep the regime in power. Ms. Sheinbaum’s decision to prop up democracy’s biggest enemy in the Western hemisphere is another reason companies are thinking hard about Mexico as a place to invest. The peso that was 17 to the dollar the day before her election now trades at 20.37. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Turkey’s Personal Data Protection Board (KVKK) has fined Amazon.com’s (AMZN.O) gaming platform Twitch 2 million lira ($58,000) over a data breach, the official Anadolu Agency reported on Saturday. – Reuters

T-Mobile’s (TMUS.O) network was among the systems hacked in a damaging Chinese cyber-espionage operation that gained entry into multiple U.S. and international telecommunications companies, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday citing people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk expanded his lawsuit against ChatGPT maker OpenAI, adding federal antitrust and other claims and adding OpenAI’s largest financial backer Microsoft (MSFT.O), as a defendant. – Reuters

The head of one of Ukraine’s leading cybersecurity agencies has stepped down just a year into the job, marking a broader shake-up within Ukraine’s cyber services. – The Record

Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, and Craig Mundie write: In the case of security, unlike that of the displacement of people in scientific or other academic endeavors, we may more readily accept the impartiality of a mechanical third party as necessarily superior to the self-interestedness of a human—just as humans easily recognize the need for a mediator in a contentious divorce. Some of our worst traits will enable us to exhibit some of our best: that the human instinct toward self-interest, even at the expense of others, may prepare us for accepting AI’s transcendence of the self. – Foreign Affairs