Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iranian shopkeepers across the country closed their stores and went on a planned three-day strike starting Tuesday in solidarity with a monthslong protest movement demanding the ouster of the clerical leadership. – Wall Street Journal

The Iranian authorities moved aggressively to disperse demonstrations in dozens of cities across the country on Tuesday, as an uprising demanding an end to clerical rule entered its third month, and neither protesters nor the government showed any signs of backing down. – New York Times

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on an Iranian drone maker that officials said supplied Russia with weapons used in Ukraine. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on Tuesday announced the sanctions against Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, also called SAIRC, a company linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that designs and produces drones. – Wall Street Journal

Iranians went on strike in several cities on Tuesday to commemorate the 2019 protests over fuel prices, a display of dissent that was crushed by security forces in one of the bloodiest crackdowns in the history of the Islamic Republic. – Reuters

The U.S. Navy said Tuesday it found 70 tons of a missile fuel component hidden among bags of fertilizer aboard a ship bound to Yemen from Iran, the first-such seizure in that country’s yearslong war as a cease-fire there has broken down. – Associated Press

Australia’s ambassador was summoned by Tehran over comments made by the Australian prime minister regarding Iran’s internal developments, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday according to the semi-official Nournews news agency. – Reuters

Iran’s players are free to join in the protests sweeping their country over women’s rights while they are playing at the World Cup in Qatar but must do so within the rules of the tournament, national team coach Carlos Queiroz said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States, Britain, France and Germany have submitted a motion to the UN nuclear watchdog’s board censuring Iran over its lack of cooperation with the agency, two diplomats said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse

Georgia foiled an Iranian plot to assassinate an Israeli residing in the country, its State Security Service said Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post 

U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley is in Paris meeting with French, German and United Kingdom partners, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters at a regular news briefing on Tuesday. – Reuters

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock singled out Iran for using the death penalty to suppress members of the opposition at a conference on Tuesday which aimed to outlaw the punishment around the world. – Reuters

The U.N. human rights office is calling on Iran’s government to immediately release thousands of people who have been detained for participating in peaceful protests, faulting its “increasing harshness” as Western countries seek to ratchet up scrutiny of Tehran’s crackdown against demonstrators. – Associated Press

Iranian security forces shot dead at least three protesters Tuesday, a rights group said, as demonstrations sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death swelled on the anniversary of a bloody 2019 crackdown. – Agence France-Presse 

Julian Lee writes: While Russian troops illegally occupy parts of Ukraine and Iran helps to arm them, it’s hard to see the nuclear talks being reactivated. That’s bad for oil supply and bad for containing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. – Bloomberg

Simon Henderson writes: The Vienna meeting may not be decisive on any of these issues, but it is significant. Aside from adding another technical element to the diplomatic pressure on Iran, adopting the access resolution could help preserve and even enhance safeguards agreements reached with other signatories to the NPT, who may be considering how to respond to Iran’s advances via their own nuclear programs. – Washington Institute

Henry Rome and Louis Dugit-Gros write: Even without triggering the snapback of UN sanctions, the EU could escalate pressure on Iran’s energy sector, which provides critical resources to its military. Finally, the EU could strengthen restrictions on—and share more information about—the way Iran utilizes dual-use technology in its drone program. – Washington Institute

Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanne Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) will likely resume its campaign to expel US military forces from the region in the coming months. […]The perceived role of the US in stoking the protests and supporting anti-regime Kurdish militant groups in Iraqi Kurdistan may increase the urgency Iranian leaders assign to this effort. – Institute for the Study of War

Erfan Fard writes: The brave young protesters did not comply when Salami yelled “Put aside the wickedness. Today is the last day of the riots. Do not come to the streets anymore. What more do you want from the lives of these people? ”. Regardless of the warning, students hit back at him and continued to protest in large numbers at several of Iran’s major universities on Sunday. Sooner or later, the will of change will triumph over the will of suppression. This young generation will succeed on the long road to democracy in Iran. – Arutz Sheva

Israel

An Israeli-owned oil tanker was hit by a suspected Iranian drone Tuesday night in the Gulf of Oman, according to people familiar with the incident, creating a hole in the ship but causing no injuries or deaths. – Wall Street Journal

A Palestinian man killed three Israelis and severely injured three more in a stabbing and car-ramming attack in the West Bank on Tuesday, according to Israeli military and medical officials, the latest in a spate of violent incidents in the occupied territory this year. – Wall Street Journal

Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing political allies aim to make sweeping changes to Israel’s judicial system, which could allow lawmakers to pass laws previously struck down as unconstitutional, including bills aimed at expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank. – Wall Street Journal

Israel said it had summoned the Ukrainian ambassador for a dressing down on Tuesday, after Kyiv voted in favour of a resolution to open an international probe into Israel’s prolonged occupation of the West Bank. – Reuters

Prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party canceled all meetings planned Wednesday with Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich, as coalition negotiations aimed at establishing Israel’s 37th government remain at an impasse. The move comes after the incoming premier reportedly told the far-right lawmaker that he opposes his appointment as defense minister in the next government, citing concerns over the continued cooperation with US President Joe Biden’s administration. – Times of Israel

The FBI’s decision to open a criminal investigation into the killing of a Palestinian-American journalist is a watershed moment in the history of the U.S.-Israel relationship. – Haaretz

A new report based on surveys commissioned by the Ruderman Family Foundation over the last two years demonstrates the prevailing challenges and opportunities that the American Jewish community faces in regard to its institutions, safety, unity, and more. – Arutz Sheva

While Israeli intelligence is trying to confirm Iran’s recent declaration that it has successfully developed a hypersonic ballistic missile, the Israeli Defense Forces have already been anticipating such an announcement — and in the last two months have begun accelerating efforts to develop measures to counter the potential new threat, sources say. – Breaking Defense

In two volatile spots in the occupied West Bank, Israel has installed robotic weapons that can fire tear gas, stun grenades and sponge-tipped bullets at Palestinian protesters. – Associated Press

Amos Harel writes: First, they will have to solve the clash with the United States. Second, the possibility that a soldier will be at risk of an investigation by a foreign country on suspicion of a crime in the territories completely contradicts all the promises by Benjamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir regarding increased support for combat soldiers. – Haaretz

Middle East & North Africa

Alaa Abd El Fattah, the imprisoned British-Egyptian dissident who has been on hunger strike for more than seven months in a bid to win his freedom, has broken his strike even though he remains behind bars, his family said on Tuesday. – New York Times

A Tunisian journalist said on Tuesday that police had started investigating him over a critical report about on the prime minister, raising fears among journalists and politicians that the authorities are targeting the press freedom and trying to silence free voices. – Reuters

Hosting the World Cup marks a pinnacle in Qatar’s efforts to rise out of the shadow of its larger neighbors in the wider Middle East, where its politics and its upstart ambitions have brought both international attention and regional ire. – Associated Press

The beheaded bodies of two Egyptian girls were found Tuesday in a sprawling camp in northeastern Syria housing tens of thousands of women and children linked to the Islamic State group, an opposition war monitor and local officials said. – Associated Press

Hezbollah has been exploiting a diplomatic loophole to freely funnel money from around the world into its coffers in Lebanon, a joint report by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and ProPublica found. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Yet Sisi has stubbornly refused to release Abdel Fattah, who was granted UK citizenship last year, and many more have been arrested this year. In a letter to Abdel Fattah’s sister on the eve of COP27, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak, who attended the summit last week, said his government was “totally committed” to resolving the activist’s case. US President Joe Biden, who also attended, promised to put human rights at the top of his foreign policy agenda. It is time to deliver on those promises. – Financial Times

Seth J. Frantzman writes: An article published in Iranian media, quoting Lebanese media, appears to indicate a larger Iranian regime view regarding the recent Israel-Lebanon maritime agreement. – Jerusalem Post

China

A few weeks after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s August visit to Taiwan, advisers to President Biden quietly opened back-channel talks with a senior Chinese diplomat. Beijing had largely severed lines of communication with the U.S. government, and the two sides were looking for a way forward. – Wall Street Journal

While President Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have eased tensions between their countries, they are vying for influence in Asia and beyond, offering competing stances on how to address poverty and the war in Ukraine. – New York Times

The prominent position of the photo on the front page of China’s main official newspaper spoke volumes: In it, the nation’s leader, Xi Jinping, smiled and shook hands with President Biden against a backdrop of Chinese and American flags. – New York Times

China on Tuesday criticised calls made by some COP27 delegations for Taiwan to be included in the annual climate talks process. Using a ‘right of reply’ statement at the end of a day of speeches at the Sharm el-Sheikh conference, China urged the summit to stick to the ‘One China Principle’ under which it regards Taiwan as part of China. – Reuters

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised “serious concerns” over suspected domestic interference by China in his first talks with President Xi Jinping on Tuesday in more than three years, a Canadian government source said. – Reuters

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday that China posed a threat to Britain but it was also right to have dialogue with Beijing over global challenges such as climate change and the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

FBI Director Christopher Wray said Tuesday at a House committee hearing that China has stolen more American data “than every other nation combined.” – The Hill 

Editorial: Biden insisted in Bali the US would “continue to compete vigorously” with Beijing. But, as former Australian premier and China expert Kevin Rudd notes, competition between the two has been perilously “unmanaged”. To avert a disastrous deterioration, the time has come for some careful management. – Financial Times 

David Ignatius writes: U.S. officials say their goal in the increasingly contentious relationship is to create “guardrails” and “rules of the road.” The Bali summit helped that process. But the fact remains that the U.S.-China relationship is like two cars careening down a narrow road, at ever higher speed. At least the drivers are talking. – Washington Post 

James Stavridis writes: If Washington and Beijing can cooperate to bring peace, and if Putin’s recklessness brings the subject of arms limits back into the global discussion, perhaps something good will come out of his horrific war. – Bloomberg

Shuli Ren writes: After almost three years of border controls, it is getting harder for global investors — even those based in Hong Kong — to understand the true state of the Chinese economy or decision-making in Beijing. While it’s difficult to figure out what Xi will do, they also don’t want to be caught wrong-footed. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: The West needs to get real about this. China is very much determined to replace the U.S.-led international order with one that is incompatible with the interests of free peoples everywhere. Compromise may be possible and preferential at the margins, but pretending the U.S. and China can forge a durable compromise is a very dangerous folly. – Washington Examiner

Mercy A. Kuo writes: DoD’s blacklisting of DJI reflects its broader strategy to counter military-civil fusion by bolstering the connection between PRC civilian and military companies. Since the technology is consistent across sectors, and recognizing the PRC’s intentions to achieve technological superiority, this action calls for increased measures to protect information and infrastructure, which extends to the broader industrial base. – The Diplomat

Paul Heer writes: Just as Shirk assesses that American perceptions of China as an existential threat will prompt U.S. leaders to “enact ever tougher policies to contain the threat,” we should expect that Chinese perceptions of a U.S. strategy to “contain” China will prompt CCP leaders to move toward their own ever tougher policies. Breaking this interactive cycle would require both sides to recognize it and work together to escape it. Biden’s meeting with Xi this week could be the beginning of that process. – The National Interest

Dean P. Chen writes: What really came out of this in-person Biden-Xi summit, aside from platitudes and aspirational promises, was that neither president caved to the other on their country’s vital interests. Their political standings at home have certainly reinforced their resolve and credibility but what set this meeting apart from the previous five remote Biden-Xi summits remains to be seen. – The National Interest

Joseph Rozen and Gedaliah Afterman write: Moving away from the zero-sum game of superpower competition offers the United States an opportunity to champion a more creative approach that would advance a positive international agenda and bring Asia and the Middle East closer together. – The National Interest

Europe

European Union defence ministers paved the way on Tuesday for Britain to join an EU project aimed at facilitating the swift movement of troops and military equipment across Europe, as war rages in Ukraine for a ninth month. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak affirmed their strong support for Ukraine on Wednesday as they met for talks that included the blast that took place in Poland and challenges posed by China, the White House said. – Reuters

Europe will engage with China but needs to “rebalance” the relationship to avoid becoming too reliant on the country for areas like innovative technology, European Council President Charles Michel said on Tuesday. – Reuters

With the war in the Ukraine at a critical stage, tensions in the countries under the influence of the former Soviet Union could not be getting much higher. With the Ukrainian Armed Forces putting pressure on Putin’s Generals, the tension can be felt across NATO’s eastern flank. – Arutz Sheva

Nicola Sturgeon writes: We don’t know the detail of what is to be in the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, but one thing is already clear — to build a more prosperous and fairer future, Scottish independence is not only desirable, it is now essential. – Financial Times

The Americas

Canadian authorities have charged a researcher at the country’s largest electric utility with espionage for allegedly trying to obtain trade secrets for China, according to police. – Washington Post  

Cuba and the United States are making progress in talks aimed at curbing a migration crisis that saw a record number of Cubans arrive at the U.S. border last year, but those advances are not enough to stem the tide, Cuba’s top diplomat in the talks said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Bringing a message that “Brazil is back” in the fight against global warming, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with climate envoys from China and the United States on Tuesday in Egypt for the COP27 talks, on his first foreign trip since being elected Brazilian president. – Reuters

Defense

The Air Force has grown far too old, small and fragile when it comes to its combat aircraft inventories. Nowhere is this more glaring than in the field of the long-range strike mission. The B-21′s transition from concept to reality marks a particularly important opportunity for the Air Force to reset this imbalance. – Defense News

A “deterrence triad” that combines special operations, space, and cyber forces has been described as the “next step in terms of deterrence,” to give the U.S. the “ability to protect and the opportunity to disrupt.” But while the concept was announced in August, the actual where, how, and what of the triad remains “a work in progress,” according to special operations thinkers, leaders, and industry-movers who spoke last week at Global Special Operations Foundation’s Modern Warfare Week conference at Fort Bragg, N.C. – Defense One

Fabian E. Villalobos writes: The intelligence community could also take this moment as an opportunity to educate government policymakers, U.S. allies and the public about the extent of Chinese interference in mineral mining and processing. Without that understanding, years could be lost as public misinformation delays projects — prolonging the risk of supply disruption, economic coercion or worse. – The Hill