Fdd's overnight brief

November 15, 2024

In The News

Israel

Families of Israeli hostages taken captive to Gaza by Islamist group Hamas urged U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday to work on a deal to free those still being held before winter. – Reuters

Israel’s Attorney General on Thursday told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reevaluate the tenure of his far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, citing his alleged interference in police matters. – Reuters

A Middle East education monitoring group on Thursday accused the UN Palestinian refugee agency of “deep ties” to terror groups, highlighting in a report the hateful curriculum of five UNRWA schools it said are run by senior Hamas members in the Gaza Strip. – Times of Israel

Israel allowed 15 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into northern Gaza on Wednesday, marking a significant delivery of supplies amid the ongoing conflict. – Newsweek

IDF soldiers continued to operate in recent weeks in both the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, including locating and destroying terror infrastructure and eliminating terrorists, the military said on Thursday morning.  – Jerusalem Post

The IDF announced the death of First Lt. Ivri Dickshtein, a platoon commander in the IDF’s 51st Golani Brigade, who was killed in combat operations in southern Lebanon. – Haaretz

Yaakov Amidror writes: After a year of Israel’s brutal war, it’s important to remember that the war didn’t break out because Israel wanted it. The war is Israel’s response to Hamas’s barbaric raid on civilian settlements, and Hezbollah is the one who opened fire on northern Israel the day after Hamas’s attack. – Jerusalem Post

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: This ground system is already in advanced stages of establishment and is expected, according to IDF planning, to remain in place for several years until a hostage release agreement is reached. Such a deal would likely necessitate adjustments to both ground operations and broader policies concerning Gaza’s future. In the absence of a hostage agreement or an alternative governing body in Gaza, the IDF will continue setting up these corridors while avoiding the establishment of an Israeli military administration in the region. – Ynet

Iran

Iran offered written assurances to the Biden administration last month that it wasn’t seeking to kill Donald Trump, U.S. officials said, a secret exchange meant to cool tensions between Tehran and Washington—as the Republican prepares for his White House return. – Wall Street journal

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is fueling a fierce debate inside Iran, where experts and officials are openly deliberating whether to negotiate with his administration — or take a more hostile stance including possible steps toward a nuclear bomb. – Washington Post

A young Iranian woman was recorded this month arguing with security forces while stripped to her underwear at her university in Tehran. The videos, first shared by a citizen journalism account online, showed her arrest by plainclothes authorities — and quickly went viral as yet another symbol of Iranian women standing up to government repression. – Washington Post

Elon Musk, a close adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations on Monday in New York in a session that two Iranian officials described as a discussion of how to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States. – New York Times

Israel expects the incoming Trump administration to take a hard line against Iran and its nuclear ambitions, which will create an opportunity for more peace deals with Arab neighbors, a senior member of Israel’s security cabinet said. – Reuters

Iran is willing to resolve outstanding disputes over its nuclear programme but won’t succumb to pressure, its foreign minister told the U.N. nuclear watchdog head on Thursday, as European countries push for diplomacy before Donald Trump’s return to the White House. – Reuters

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned Thursday that the “space for negotiation and diplomacy … is getting smaller” over Iran’s advancing atomic program as wars in the Mideast rage on and as President Donald Trump will return to the White House. – Associated Press

Iran is adopting a friendlier tone with European leaders regarding the future of its nuclear program as the threat of “maximum pressure” from a second Trump administration looms on the horizon. – Washington Examiner

The Israeli prime minister, addressing the Iranian people in an English-language video with Farsi subtitles, indicated as much this week, describing a better future for Iran if it were under a different form of government than that of the Islamic Republic. – New York Sun

Russia & Ukraine

As Russian forces continue their grinding advance toward the supply hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, a new offensive appears to be nearly underway in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian troops said this week, in what would represent a major escalation along the 600-mile-long front. – Washington Post

Russia is open to negotiations on an end to the Ukraine war if initiated by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, but any talks need to be based on the realities of Russian advances, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva told reporters on Thursday. – Reuters

The four drones were designed to carry bombs, but instead the men of Ukraine’s Khartia brigade pack them with food, water and handwarmers and launch them in darkness toward the front line, a 15-minute flight away. – Associated Press 

A Russian man went on trial Thursday on charges of high treason for a video he had allegedly sent to Ukraine’s security services, the latest in a growing series of espionage cases involving the conflict. – Associated Press

A French military task force with a festive name — “Champagne” — is wrapping up a mission that’s no party: training a whole new brigade of several thousand Ukrainian troops who will be joining the fight against Russia’s invasion armed with France-supplied tanks, artillery canons and other heavy weaponry. – Associated Press

In a Cypriot National Guard camp, Ukrainians are being trained on how to identify, locate and dispose of landmines and other unexploded munitions that litter huge swaths of their country, killing and maiming hundreds of people, including children. – Associated Press

Nataliya Gumenyuk writes: It is also true that prolonged war is not something Ukrainians like. Instead of supporting the country “as long as it takes,” as Biden has often said, they would prefer more decisive measures. Whatever happens after January 20, 2025, it will be critical for Ukraine to get further funds and weapons in the remaining weeks of this year. If Trump does try to talk to Putin, Ukraine will need to be in the strongest position possible on the battlefield. Ukrainians know that it won’t be easy to ensure Washington’s continued support. But nothing has been easy up to this point, either. – Foreign Affairs

Syria

Israel will attack any attempt to bring weapons to Hezbollah from Syria, Israel’s military spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters

In recent weeks, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” has launched nightly attacks on Israel. According to Arab reports, this organization comprises six pro-Iranian militias, including Iraq’s Hezbollah Brigades, al-Nujaba, and Sayyid al-Shuhada. Operating out of Iraq and Syria, these militias target both Israel and international coalition bases led by the United States. – Ynet

Lebanon

Israel is expanding its ground operation in southern Lebanon, sending troops into villages farther from its border, in what some former senior security officials worry could turn into a war of attrition. – Wall Street Journal

Diplomacy aimed at securing a ceasefire in Lebanon showed tentative signs of progress on Thursday as Israel pounded its northern neighbour including heavy airstrikes on the stronghold of armed group Hezbollah near Beirut. – Reuters

The World Bank said on Thursday the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has caused $8.5 billion in damage and losses to Lebanon, with final figures expected to be significantly higher as the conflict continues. – Reuters

The United Nations intends to bolster its peacekeeping mission in Lebanon to better support the Lebanese army once a truce is agreed but would not directly enforce a ceasefire, U.N. peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix said on Thursday. – Reuters

The head of Lebanon’s largest Christian party said Iran-backed Hezbollah should relinquish its weapons as quickly as possible to end its year-long war with Israel and spare Lebanon further death and destruction. – Reuters

The IDF completed another wave of strikes in Dahiyeh, targeting Hezbollah’s weapons storage facilities, the military announced on Thursday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Israel is hoping Donald Trump’s return to the White House will lead to more cooperation in the Middle East, both on diplomacy and climate issues, an Israeli official said. – Bloomberg

Turkey and Qatar signed a series of agreements on Thursday ranging from trade facilitation to military and technical cooperation during Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani’s visit to President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. – Reuters

In what would be a key reversal, Germany is apparently coming around to the potential sale of Eurofighter Typhoons to Turkey, according to a senior Turkish official. – Breaking Defense

Joshua Yaphe writes: The enthusiasm that exists in Saudi Arabia right now is tangible and important for U.S. policy in the region. Many in the kingdom have been hoping for an end to the liberal policies of the Biden-Harris camp, a restoration of Republican Party politics as they remembered it, and a resumption of President Trump’s personal approach to regional engagement. Saudi perceptions may be nuanced and critical at times. Their feelings may be motivated by a range of domestic factors. However, the key point is that this wellspring of positive sentiment will allow the Trump administration to explore engagement with Riyadh on global priorities in a way that could not have occurred in 2017. – National Interest

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guided a test of suicide drones and ordered a mass production of the aerial weapon, saying the introduction of such drones around the world requires an urgent update of military theory, state media said on Friday. – Reuters

A South Korean court convicted on Friday main opposition party leader Lee Jae-myung on charges of violating the election law, handing him a one-year prison sentence suspended for two years, the Yonhap news agency reported. – Reuters

U.S., Japanese and South Korean naval forces exercised together in East Asian waters on Thursday in their most complex and final joint drills before President Joe Biden hands over one of his signature national security initiatives to Donald Trump. – Reuters

China

China’s economy showed signs of improving last month after a blitz of growth-friendly policies from Beijing, but economists say authorities will still need to do more to keep the momentum going now as Donald Trump’s re-election raises the specter of a new trade war with the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump launched a technological war against China in his first presidency. His next administration faces a much harder task: finishing it. – Washington Post

NATO and the European Union are ramping up efforts to persuade China to help get North Korea to stop sending troops and other support to Russia to back its war on Ukraine. – Associated Press

Kathleen McInnis, Benjamin Jensen, Audrey Aldisert, and Alexis Day write: Many authoritarian adversaries are weaponizing gender against U.S. interests; it is past time for the U.S. government, and the DoD within it, to develop sufficiently gender-informed responses. Viewed in this light, applying a gender perspective to the problem of strategic competition is a necessary step toward accomplishing the UN-supported vision for Women, Peace, and Security. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

South Asia

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s leftist coalition won a thumping victory in a snap general election, gaining power to push through his plans to fight poverty in the island nation recovering from a financial meltdown. – Reuters

A Pakistani court on Thursday rejected a plea for acquittal from former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has been held in prison for more than a year in a graft case, a defense lawyer said. – Associated Press

Pakistan’s Punjab declared a health emergency due to toxic smog on Friday, banning construction, shutting schools for another week and moving universities online, with a three-day lockdown possible, the province’s senior minister said on Friday. – Reuters

Asia

Former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is planning to visit Canada next week, two diplomatic sources told Reuters, in a highly watched visit for a senior Taiwan politician who has become a symbol of the island’s defiance against China’s military threat. – Reuters

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is planning to stop in Hawaii and maybe Guam on a visit to Taipei’s diplomatic allies in the Pacific in the coming weeks, sources told Reuters, a sensitive trip coming shortly after the U.S. election. – Reuters

Malaysia will send a protest note to the Philippines over its new maritime laws due to their overlapping claims in the South China Sea, its deputy foreign minister said on Thursday. – Reuters

The Philippine navy transported food and other supplies to a territorial ship outpost in a shoal in the South China Sea without any confrontation with Chinese forces guarding the disputed area, officials said Friday. – Associated Press

The Azerbaijani autocrat opened this year’s global climate conference, known as COP29, with a rant against Western “hypocrisy.” Two days later, he tore into France and the Netherlands for what he described as “repression” and ongoing colonial rule. Within hours, France’s top climate official canceled her trip to Baku. – Politico

Australia changed some of its traditional voting patterns at the United Nations, taking a stand against the Jewish state in two preliminary resolutions overwhelmingly approved by the General Assembly Second Committee. – Jerusalem Post

Europe

Thousands of security personnel descended upon Paris for an international soccer match between France and Israel, a week after violent clashes in Amsterdam targeted Israeli fans. – Wall Street Journal

Dutch authorities on Thursday said they were investigating reports of police violence against pro-Palestinian protesters after a banned rally on Wednesday evening had been broken up. – Reuters

More than 5,000 people protested next to the Lithuanian parliament on Thursday against election winners the Social Democrats entering into a parliamentary coalition with a party whose leader is on trial accused of antisemitic statements. – Reuters

Greece is in talks with Israel to develop a 2 billion euro ($2.11 billion) anti-aircraft and missile defence dome, part of a wider push to modernise its armed forces as it recovers from a protracted debt crisis, Greek officials said on Thursday. – Reuters

The decision of the Dutch government Wednesday to suspend the Schengen Agreement beginning in December and reintroduce hard border controls is a major move amid its crisis of illegal immigration and signals a new Euroscepticism.  – New York Sun

Pope Francis met with several former hostages held by Hamas in Gaza this week, amid Israel’s ongoing war with the militant group. Pope Francis expressed hope that both the incoming and outgoing U.S. administrations will collaborate to secure the return of those still held captive. – Newsweek

France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its strike group are set to deploy over the next few weeks to the Indo-Pacific as part of mission Clemenceau 25, during which it will also take part in three major exercises with allies. – Defense News

Rachel O’Donoghue writes: The attacks in Amsterdam last Thursday night, reminiscent of Nazi-era pogroms, are the direct result of the “Globalize the Intifada” movement that anti-Israel protesters have been championing for over a year. This slogan isn’t just a catchy chant; it’s a blatant call for violence against Jews, mirroring the atrocities of the First and Second Palestinian Intifadas. – Algemeiner

Africa

More than 61,000 people are estimated to have died in Khartoum state during the first 14 months of Sudan’s war, with evidence suggesting the toll from the devastating conflict is significantly higher than previously recorded, according to a new report by researchers in Britain and Sudan. – Reuters

South Africa’s government says it won’t help a group of illegal miners inside a closed mine in the country’s North West province who have been denied access to basic supplies as part of an official strategy against illegal mining. – Associated Press

Armored vehicles manufactured by the United Arab Emirates and equipped with French defense systems have been captured by the Sudanese army during the civil war in Sudan, Amnesty International says. – Associated Press

Justice Malala writes: Five more elections are due on the continent this year — Somaliland, Namibia, Chad, Ghana and Guinea Bissau all go to the polls in the next six weeks. One hopes the AU and regional observers will be more effective in these cases, but what we’ve seen so far in 2024 makes it hard to be optimistic. – Bloomberg

The Americas

From the dense jungle connecting Panama and Colombia to the banks of the Rio Grande, human smugglers are spreading a message to U.S.-bound migrants: Hurry up and sneak in before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. – Wall Street Journal

Argentine President Javier Milei is evaluating whether to withdraw his country from the Paris climate agreement as part of a broader review of all international policy, according to a senior official in his administration who spoke on the condition of anonymity because no final decision has been made. – Washington Post

United Nations special rapporteur for torture Alice Edwards said on Thursday she is alarmed over allegations that Ecuador’s former Vice President Jorge Glas was suffering torture while detained at the Andean country’s La Roca prison. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a week-long diplomatic blitz of South America on Thursday by inaugurating a massive deep-water port in Peru, a $1.3 billion investment by Beijing as it seeks to expand trade and influence on the continent. – Reuters

Canada’s foreign minister on Thursday expressed deep concern about “catastrophic” humanitarian conditions across Gaza and warned about “the life-threatening levels of acute malnutrition.” – Reuters

Representatives from 21 members representing the Pacific Rim are meeting in Peru on Friday for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the first global summit since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory featuring several major world leaders. – Associated Press

President Joe Biden heads to South America on Thursday for a curtain call with global leaders after over 50 years in U.S. politics, but the man he tried and failed to keep from returning to power is likely to be the focus of many meetings: incoming President Donald Trump. – Reuters

A former senior official in Chile’s government was arrested Thursday on suspicion of rape, authorities said, in a case that has shocked the South American country and dented domestic support for leftist President Gabriel Boric. – Associated Press

A Brazilian Supreme Court justice said Thursday that he believes the explosion outside the court in capital Brasilia was the consequence of frequent far-right attacks and hate speech targeting the country’s institutions. – Associated Press

Masses of residents fled a running battle Thursday between gang members and police in one of the few neighborhoods of Haiti’s capital that hadn’t already been fully taken over by gangs, as violence flared amid political turmoil. – Associated Press

G20 leaders gather in Brazil on Monday for a G20 summit set to be dominated by differences over wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and implications of Donald Trump’s White House return. – Agence France-Presse

U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar lashed out Wednesday at Mexico’s failure to accept aid in the fight against drug cartels, claiming the country “closed the doors” on security cooperation. – Military.com

United States

The U.S. needs to be prepared to expand its nuclear force to deter the growing threats from China, Russia and North Korea, say senior Biden administration officials. – Wall Street Journal

President-elect Donald J. Trump’s emerging team in the Middle East appears poised to push U.S. foreign policy into even tighter accord with Israel’s far-right government, challenging the marriage of convenience Mr. Trump struck with Muslim voters and potentially straining relations between Israeli and American Jews to a breaking point. – New York Times

With his nomination of China hardliner Marco Rubio for secretary of state, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his policy toward Beijing could go beyond tariffs and trade to a more hawkish stance on China as the United States’ main strategic rival. – Reuters

The United States reached an agreement with Finland and Canada to increase the productivity of building icebreakers, which will aid in geopolitical opportunities in the Arctic region. – Washington Examiner

Domestic terrorism may be the end game for the over 150 pro-Hamas groups operating on colleges campuses and elsewhere across the US to foster anti-Israel demonstrations, according to a new report by the Capital Research Center (CRC) think tank. – Algemeiner

Cybersecurity

Foreign hackers broke into the IT systems of a Hungarian government agency responsible for defence procurement but no sensitive data about Hungary’s military have been compromised, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff said on Thursday. – Reuters

European Union regulators issued their first antitrust fine to Facebook parent Meta on Thursday with a penalty of nearly 800 million euros for what they call “abusive practices” involving its Marketplace online classified ads business. – Associated Press

The Australian government’s plan to ban children from social media platforms including X, TikTok, Facebook and Instagram until their 16th birthdays is politically popular. The opposition party says it would have done the same after winning elections due within months if the government hadn’t moved first. – Associated Press

HackerOne has expressed serious concerns over the recently proposed UN Convention Against Cybercrime, which the company says lacks strong protections for good-faith security researchers. – Cyberscoop

Fiona Alexander writes: It is unclear how the incoming Trump administration will react or whether a newly installed European Commission will reconsider. They should. The threat to fundamental freedoms outweighs the benefits of increased powers to fight cybercrime. Unless the transatlantic allies shift, they will embolden Russia, China, and their authoritarian supporters. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Defense

Boeing has poached an executive from defense rival Northrop Grumman triangle to run its Phantom Works division, which oversees research efforts for its Pentagon business and is involved in bidding for U.S. government projects. – Wall Street Journal

Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg won a five-year contract from the US Navy worth around US$900 million to supply anti-ship missiles, in what the company says is its biggest missile contract ever. – Defense News

The Navy wants to start testing its Conventional Prompt Strike missile system aboard guided-missile destroyer USS Zumwalt (DG-1000) in 2027 or 2028, the admiral overseeing the effort said Thursday. – USNI News

In alignment with its Pillar II priorities, the AUKUS trilateral security alliance is standing up a data-sharing framework dedicated to electronic warfare (EW), according to a Pentagon EW official. – Breaking Defense

The Defense Department today issued its fiscal 2024 report on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), which once again, finds no evidence of aliens among the 757 UAP sightings documented — but does include a few new details about the Pentagon’s mysterious GREMLIN sensor suite designed to detect, track and hopefully figure out what those weird lights in the sky (or under the sea) actually are. – Breaking Defense